SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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Again, I compiled the stats on the quarterbacks, the top running backs and the top two pass receivers for last year’s Top 25 teams and averaged them. (Those players are most of your offense), so I could compare them to what SU’s players in the same positions are projected to do this year to see we have “the look” of a Top 25 team in these key positions. I realize that other things are relevant, too, but when we are a top 25 we should see stats similar to this, (perhaps better):
The average quarterback of a top 25 team in 2011 completed 259 of 402 passes, (64.4%) for 3,281 yards, (12.7 per completion and 8.2 per attempt) for 28 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. (Note: where players shared a position or one player replaced another during the season, I added their numbers together).
The average top running back of a Top 25 team carried the ball 253 times for 1373 yards, (5.4 per carry) and 14 touchdowns.
The average top receiver of a Top 25 team caught 64 passes for 968 yards (15.1 per catch) and 9 touchdowns. The average second best receiver caught 52 balls for 685 yards, (13.2) and 6 TDs.
Ryan Nassib has competed 267 of 420 passes (63.6%) for 3404 yards, (12.7 per completion and 8.1 per attempt) for 23TDs and 9 interceptions, (three on tipped passes but it counts). At this rate, (and I’m now projecting to 13 games, since bowl game stats count these days), he’d have 316 completions in 496 attempts for 4023 yards, 27TDs and 11 interceptions. Last year he averaged 10.4 yards per completion and 6.5 per attempt, so despite perception, he is throwing the ball farther downfield than in past. His attempts, completions and yards are better than the average Top 25 quarterback and his averages per completion and attempt are nearly comparable. His completion percentage, touchdowns and interceptions have fallen a below that standard but not by much.
His numbers will be SU records except the completion percentage, (Greg Paulus 67.7% in 2009), yards per completion, (Don McPherson 18.1 in 1987) and attempt, (McPherson 10.2, also in 1987). Nassib already holds the records in the other categories, except interceptions, (Dave Warner 16 in 1980).
We’ve reached the point where Jerome Smith is clearly the #1 back so I’m not going to add in Prince-Tyson Gully’s numbers any more to compare him to a Top 25 lead runner. Smith has 178 carries for 923 yards, (5.2 per carry) and 3 scores. That projects to 2107 carries for 1091 yards and 4 scores. That’s far fewer yards and carries than a Top 25 lead back and 4 touchdowns is almost embarrassing. But 5.2 yards per carry is pretty solid and he’s gotten much better.
For the first time Alec Lemon has passed Marcus Sales, (remember him?) as the team’s leading receiver, both in yards and receptions. His average per gain is even equal to Marcus’s even though Alec is supposed to be the “possession” receiver and Marcus is supposed to be the deep threat. Perhaps now that Alec has had some big games things will now open up for Marcus.
Lemon has 65 catches for 989 yards (15.2) and 7 TDs. He’s on a pace for 77/1169/8. Sales has 60/817 (13.6) and 7 scores and is on a pace for 71/966/8. Lemon, the “possession” receiver, is now averaging more yards per catch than Sales the deep threat. Both will top Lemon’s record for catch from last year, (68) and Lemon would break Marvin Harrison’s record for yards, (1131). But Tommy Kane’s record for TDs, (14) seems safe.
We now have the offense of a Top 25 team.
The average quarterback of a top 25 team in 2011 completed 259 of 402 passes, (64.4%) for 3,281 yards, (12.7 per completion and 8.2 per attempt) for 28 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. (Note: where players shared a position or one player replaced another during the season, I added their numbers together).
The average top running back of a Top 25 team carried the ball 253 times for 1373 yards, (5.4 per carry) and 14 touchdowns.
The average top receiver of a Top 25 team caught 64 passes for 968 yards (15.1 per catch) and 9 touchdowns. The average second best receiver caught 52 balls for 685 yards, (13.2) and 6 TDs.
Ryan Nassib has competed 267 of 420 passes (63.6%) for 3404 yards, (12.7 per completion and 8.1 per attempt) for 23TDs and 9 interceptions, (three on tipped passes but it counts). At this rate, (and I’m now projecting to 13 games, since bowl game stats count these days), he’d have 316 completions in 496 attempts for 4023 yards, 27TDs and 11 interceptions. Last year he averaged 10.4 yards per completion and 6.5 per attempt, so despite perception, he is throwing the ball farther downfield than in past. His attempts, completions and yards are better than the average Top 25 quarterback and his averages per completion and attempt are nearly comparable. His completion percentage, touchdowns and interceptions have fallen a below that standard but not by much.
His numbers will be SU records except the completion percentage, (Greg Paulus 67.7% in 2009), yards per completion, (Don McPherson 18.1 in 1987) and attempt, (McPherson 10.2, also in 1987). Nassib already holds the records in the other categories, except interceptions, (Dave Warner 16 in 1980).
We’ve reached the point where Jerome Smith is clearly the #1 back so I’m not going to add in Prince-Tyson Gully’s numbers any more to compare him to a Top 25 lead runner. Smith has 178 carries for 923 yards, (5.2 per carry) and 3 scores. That projects to 2107 carries for 1091 yards and 4 scores. That’s far fewer yards and carries than a Top 25 lead back and 4 touchdowns is almost embarrassing. But 5.2 yards per carry is pretty solid and he’s gotten much better.
For the first time Alec Lemon has passed Marcus Sales, (remember him?) as the team’s leading receiver, both in yards and receptions. His average per gain is even equal to Marcus’s even though Alec is supposed to be the “possession” receiver and Marcus is supposed to be the deep threat. Perhaps now that Alec has had some big games things will now open up for Marcus.
Lemon has 65 catches for 989 yards (15.2) and 7 TDs. He’s on a pace for 77/1169/8. Sales has 60/817 (13.6) and 7 scores and is on a pace for 71/966/8. Lemon, the “possession” receiver, is now averaging more yards per catch than Sales the deep threat. Both will top Lemon’s record for catch from last year, (68) and Lemon would break Marvin Harrison’s record for yards, (1131). But Tommy Kane’s record for TDs, (14) seems safe.
We now have the offense of a Top 25 team.
