Some fun with numbers | Syracusefan.com

Some fun with numbers

SWC75

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I’ve always liked to look at comparative scores. I recognize their limitations and don’t imagine that they ‘prove’ anything. But if you use multiple lines of scores, the end result becomes at least plausible. I like to use 5 lines. I start with direct confrontations, then look at common opponents. If that doesn’t total at least 5 lines of scores, I’ll look for some others until I have five.

Before they settled on a 12 game playoff, (mostly to stuff more power conference teams into it), there was a proposal for an 8 team playoff, (my preference, as I hate byes), with automatic bids to the 5 power conference champions and the highest ranked Group of Five team. If they did that this year, it would fit like a glove: #1 Michigan 13-0 Big Ten Champs; #2 Washington 13-0 Pac 12 champs, #3 Texas 12-1 Big 12 champs, #4 Alabama 12-1 SEC champs, #5 Florida State 13-0 ACC champs, #6, (actually they tied for #5 with FSU in the final CFP poll) Georgia 12-1, #7 Ohio State 11-1, #8 Liberty 13-0.

Here's what I came up with, (Using Sports Reference.com: Football):

MICHIGAN VS. LIBERTY
I started from the Liberty schedule because I wanted to search for Power Five match-ups.
Liberty and Michigan both played Bowing Green. Liberty beat them 34-24 and Michigan beat them 31-6 = +15 for Michigan
Liberty beat New Mexico State in their first game 33-17. State beat New Mexico 27-17. The Lobos lost to UNLV 14-56 and they lost to Michigan 7-35 = +44 for Michigan
Liberty beat Buffalo 55-27 who lost to Wisconsin 17-38 who beat Purdue 38-17 who lost to Michigan 13-41 = Even
Liberty beat Florida International 38-6 who beat Connecticut 24-17 who lost to Tennessee 3-59 who beat Kentucky 33-27 who lost to Missouri 21-38 who beat Kansas State 30-27 who beat Iowa State 42-35 who lost to Iowa 13-20 who lost to Michigan 0-28 = +53 for Michigan
Liberty beat Sam Houston 21-16 who lost to Brighaam Young 0-14 who lost to Kansas 27-38 who beat Illinois 34-23 who lost to Penn State 13-30 who lost to Michigan 15-24 = +35 for Michigan
-15 - 44 - Even - 53 -35 = 147/5 = 29.4 so Michigan wins by either 29 or 30 points. I searched for a score with that differential among teams not in the playoffs and came up with MICHIGAN 35 LIBERTY 6, which I see as a plausible score.

WASHINGTON vs. OHIO STATE
Washington both played Michigan State. The Huskies beat them 41-7 while the Buckeyes bat them 38-3 = +1 Ohio State
Washington beat Tulsa 43-10 who beat Northern Illinois 22-14, who lost to Nebraska 11-35 who lost to Minnesota 3-37 = +20 Ohio State
Washington beat Arizona State 15-7 who lost to Colorado 24-27 who beat Nebraska 36-14 who beat Purdue 31-14 who lost to Ohio State 7-41 = +10 for Washington
Washington beat Stanford 42-33 who lost to Notre Dame 23-56 who lost to Ohio State 14-17 = +27 for Ohio State
Washington beat Washington State 24-21 who beat Wisconsin 31-22 who lost to Ohio State 10-24 = +2 for Ohio State
-1 - 20 +10 - 27 -2 = +40 for Ohio State / 5 = 8 so Ohio State wins by 8 points. I found this score: OHIO STATE 17 WASHINGTON 9, (a little low scoring but the Buckeyes have a great defense).

TEXAS vs. GEORGIA
Both Texas and Georgia played Alabama. The Longhorns beat the Tide 34-24 but the Bulldogs lost to them 24-27 = +13 for Texas
Texas beat Rice 37-10 who lost to Tulane 28-30 who lost to Mississippi 20-37 who lost to Georgia 17-52 = +27 Georgia
Texas beat Brigham Young 35-6 who beat Arkansas 38-31 who beat Florida 39-36 who lost to Georgia 20-43 = +16 for Texas
Texas beat Kansas State 33-30 who lost to Missouri 27-30 who lost to Georgia 21-30 = +9 for Georgia
Texas beat Iowa State 26-16 who lost to Ohio U. 7-10 who beat Bowling Green 38-7 who beat Ball State 24-21 who lost to Georgia 3-45 = +1 for Georgia
+13 – 27 +16 – 9 -1 = -8 which is +8 for Georgia /5 = 1.6 so Georgia won by 1-2 points. I found this score: GEORGIA 18 TEXAS 16

ALABAMA vs. FLORIDA STATE
Alabama and Florida State both beat Louisiana State. The Tide topped the Tigers 42-28 and the Seminoles did it 45-24 = +7 Florida State
Alabama beat Texas A&M 26-20 who lost to University of Miami 33-48 who lost to Florida State 20-27 = +16 for Florida State
Alabama beat Tennessee 34-20 who beat Virginia 49-13 who lost to Virginia Tech 17-55 who lost to Florida State 17-39 = +10 for Florida State
Alabama beat Kentucky 49-21 who beat Florida 33-14 who lost to Florida State 15-24 = +38 for Alabama
Alabama beat Georgia 27-24 who beat South Carolina 24-14 who lost to Clemson 7-16 who lost to Florida State 24-31 = +3 for Florida State
- 7 - 16 - 10 + 38 - 3 = +2 for Alabama / 5 = a 1 point victory. It took me a long time to find one and it’s a bit higher scoring that I would have expected from this match up but here it is: ALABAMA 34 FLORIDA STATE 33

MICHIGAN vs. ALABAMA
Michigan beat East Caolina 30-3 who lost to Tulane 10-13 who lost to Mississippi 20-37 who lost to Alabama 10-24 = +7 for Alabama
Michigan beat Nevada-Las Vegas 35-7 who beat Vanderbilt 40-37 who lost to Kentucky 28-45 who lost to Alabama 21-49 = +14 for Alabama
Michigan beat Bowling Green 31-6 who beat Georgia Tech 38-27 who lost to Georgia 23-31 who lost to Alabama 24-27 = +25 for Michigan
Michigan beat Rutgers 31-7 who beat temple 36-7 who lost to South Florida 23-27 who lost to Alabama 3-17 = +35 for Michigan
Michigan beat Nebraska 45-7 who beat Louisiana Tech 28-14 who lost to Middle Tennessee State 23-31 who lost to Alabama 7-56 = +5 for Alabama
- 7 - 14 + 25 + 35 – 5 = +34 for Michigan /5 = 6.8 so Michigan wins by 6-7 points. I found this score: MICHIGAN 24 ALABAMA 17

GEORGIA vs. OHIO STATE
Georgia beat South Carolina 24-14 who beat Jacksonville State 38-28 who beat Western Kentucky 20-17 who lost to Ohio State 10-63 = +30 for Ohio State
Georgia beat Auburn 27-20 who beat Massachusetts 59-14 who lost to Toledo 24-41 who lost to Illinois 28-30 who beat Indiana 48-45 who lost to Ohio State 3-23 = +16 for Georgia
Georgia beat Kentucky 51-13 who beat Louisville 38-31 who beat Notre Dame 33-20 who lost to Ohio State 14-17 = +55 for Georgia
Georgia beat Vanderbilt 37-20 who lost to Wake Forst 20-36 who lost to Syracuse 31-35 who beat Purdue 35-20 who lost to Oho State 7-41 = +22 for Ohio State
Georgia beat Missouri 30-21 who beat Kansas State 30-27 who lost to Iowa State 35-42 who lost to Iowa 13-20 who lost to Penn State 0-31 who lost to Ohio State 12-20 = +41 for Ohio State
-30 + 16 +55 -22 -41 = +22 for Ohio State /5 = 4.4 so Ohio State wins by 4-5 points. I found this score: OHIO STATE 37 GEORGIA 32

Michigan vs. Ohio State
Let’s use their game against each other play every common opponent, even if that’s more than 6 lines.
Michigan beat Ohio State 30-24 = +6 for Michigan
Michigan beat Rutgers 31-7. Ohio State beat them 35-16. = +5 for Michigan
Michigan beat Minnesota 52-10. Ohio State beat them 37-3. = +8 for Michigan
Michigan beat Indiana 52-7. Ohio State beat them 23-3. = +25 for Michigan
Michigan beat Michigan State 49-0. Ohio State beat them 38-3. = +14 for Michigan
Michigan beat Purdue 41-13. Ohio state beat them 41-7. = +6 for Ohio State
Michigan beat Penn State 24-15. Ohio State beat them 20-12. = +1 for Michigan
Michigan beat Maryland 31-24. Ohio State beat them 37-17. = +13 for Ohio State
+6 +5 +8 +25 +14 -6 +1 -13 = +40 for Michigan /8 = Michigan wins by 5 points. I found this score: MICHIGAN 17 OHIO STATE 12.

So that’s just a vision of what an 8 team playoff with auto bids to the Power Conference champions and the highest rated Group of Five team might have looked like.
 

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