some links on the economics of convention centers

[Millhouse]

if anyone is interested in multiplierszzzzzzzzz

i will avoid a) opening my mouth and b) linking conservative or libertarian links

http://thinkprogress.org/yglesias/2011/03/18/200256/the-dubious-economics-of-convention-centers/

http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2005/01/01cities-sanders summary

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/re...cities sanders/20050117_conventioncenters.pdf detailed

this author says that when a convention center does poorly, many governments will throw good money after bad to prop it up with more subsidies

http://m.theatlanticcities.com/politics/2012/06/stop-building-convention-centers/2210/

http://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/re/articles/?id=468

http://localannarbor.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/us_congr_2007_saunders.pdf

 

[xc84]

Is a convention center being proposed somewhere? Syracuse has one...and it's relatively new.

http://www.oncenter.org/venue/nicholas-j-pirro-convention-center

 

[Millhouse]

Is a convention center being proposed somewhere? Syracuse has one...and it's relatively new.

http://www.oncenter.org/venue/nicholas-j-pirro-convention-center

ha, i thought conventions were part of it. this might make me even more pessimistic. not that conventions are a good bet but at least there's a chance. apartments, retail, and hotel is just going to cannibalize what's already in town

 

[baggerbob]

ha, i thought conventions were part of it. this might make me even more pessimistic. not that conventions are a good bet but at least there's a chance. apartments, retail, and hotel is just going to cannibalize what's already in town

Without the convention center, you wouldn't be getting the USBC national tournament in 2018. The women's in 2011 had approximately 6000 teams, and estimated 40 million in travel expense's. The national tournament will have somewhere between 12,000-16,000 teams, without the convention center no bowling tournament.

 

[supp]

Without the convention center, you wouldn't be getting the USBC national tournament in 2018. The women's in 2011 had approximately 6000 teams, and estimated 40 million in travel expense's. The national tournament will have somewhere between 12,000-16,000 teams, without the convention center no bowling tournament.

Ok, so let's build another one for that bowling tournament in 2024. When Las Vegas and Chicago are having trouble filling their convention calendar, I don't think the solution to Syracuse's economic problems is building out more convention space than we already know what to do with.

 

[xc84]

ha, i thought conventions were part of it. this might make me even more pessimistic. not that conventions are a good bet but at least there's a chance. apartments, retail, and hotel is just going to cannibalize what's already in town

Maybe some conventions for a dome...but for most that would come to Syracuse, the dome would be way to big. The current one is fine.

 

[TexanMark]

Holy Strawman...Cuse has a convention center. The new Dome however w/retractable roof, would be a shoo-in for NCAA Lax Championships along with BB Regionals. It opens up CNY for other events.

 

[cusefan88]

Holy Strawman...Cuse has a convention center. The new Dome however w/retractable roof, would be a shoo-in for NCAA Lax Championships along with BB Regionals. It opens up CNY for other events.

The Dome's biggest event every year is Monster Jam. I could see a few more events with that type of content in a new space.

 

[Millhouse]

Holy Strawman...Cuse has a convention center. The new Dome however w/retractable roof, would be a shoo-in for NCAA Lax Championships along with BB Regionals. It opens up CNY for other events.

The retail and housing component is not that stimulative because it'll just shift it around.

You're going to need a whole lot of other events to justify a generous multiplier assumption

That hotel needs new people , the retail does too. Very big tourism bet

 

[Millhouse]

The Dome's biggest event every year is Monster Jam. I could see a few more events with that type of content in a new space.

Do monster truck people make a vacation out of that or are they locals or day trip types? Not sure but we need them to stay and spend beyond the event

 

[TheCusian]

It's always easier to poke holes and use reasonable doubt when the stakes are high. More money = more fear. It's the prevailing mindset and what keeps Syracuse back.

You have to take chances. If there is a lack of private investment it's up to the state and local government to help stimulate or fund it. The only argument worth having is: would this project offer enough bang for the buck? Syracuse University (and their study), the county and State all deemed it worth the risk. The city, brought in late, (presumably because they are risk adverse) needs more time ... Not to take a reasonable step forward - but to poke holes. Sow fear.

 

[Millhouse]

It's always easier to poke holes and use reasonable doubt when the stakes are high. More money = more fear. It's the prevailing mindset and what keeps Syracuse back. You have to take chances. If there is a lack of private investment it's up to the state and local government to help stimulate or fund it. The only argument worth having is: would this project offer enough bang for the buck? Syracuse University (and their study), the county and State all deemed it worth the risk. The city, brought in late, (presumably because they are risk adverse) needs more time ... Not to take a reasonable step forward - but to poke holes. Sow fear.

If you say my opposition is about fear, it's just as easy for my to say your support is about desperation.

They're making deemed it worth the risk because they're betting other peoples money to different extents. Hawaiians probably think the investment blows.

The risk should fall on the people who get the reward.

 

[Millhouse]

If you say my opposition is about fear, it's just as easy for my to say your support is about desperation. They're making deemed it worth the risk because they're betting other peoples money to different extents. Hawaiians probably think the investment blows. The risk should fall on the people who get the reward.

Sorry for typos, forum runner on phone doesn't edit

 

[Orangepace]

The beauty of models and discussion of models is that there is no exact answer. I think that if this board collectively put it's head together and formed a partnership, we'd probably be able to be the private donor ourselves... So maybe we should get underwriting?!?

 

[TheCusian]

If you say my opposition is about fear, it's just as easy for my to say your support is about desperation. They're making deemed it worth the risk because they're betting other peoples money to different extents. Hawaiians probably think the investment blows. The risk should fall on the people who get the reward.

That's a fundamental misunderstanding of how taxes work. Risk is spread out among many projects at many locales - some will work, some won't. The benefit of taxes is shared resources enabling things to be done on areas or with populations that need it. The only way to look at is:

-until an election, these are the players on the field - and that money will spent somewhere

- any money spent here is a net positive immediately - and depending on just how stimulative - long term as well

 

[Millhouse]

That's a fundamental misunderstanding of how taxes work. Risk is spread out among many projects at many locales - some will work, some won't. The benefit of taxes is shared resources enabling things to be done on areas or with populations that need it. The only way to look at is: -until an election, these are the players on the field - and that money will spent somewhere - any money spent here is a net positive immediately - and depending on just how stimulative - long term as well

This isn't a shared resource. It's a building that people pay to use. This isn't clean air

 

[TheCusian]

This isn't a shared resource. It's a building that people pay to use. This isn't clean air

The benefits are a shared resource. The immediate financial influx of money to the area would be distributed throughout. Long term to those in the area near the building - say 10-20 miles would be revitalized. The pit of garbage it is now is certainly not an asset. And the money going to another local economy is certainly not good for Syracuse.

 

[CINYer]

The only thing mentioned about a convention center was that, was that the new hotel going up at Destiny, did it take away from Convention traffic and other local Hotels who needed the business. They(County) are still looking for a builder of a hotel that was supposed to go up across the street from the OnCenter. People might have a good argument, but the way they are presenting it, with half-truths and full of opinions, are turning folks off and making it difficult for their legitimate concerns to be objectively heard. This project had nothing to do with a convention center...Stadium, retail, and residential, and a serious boost to the local economy in a seriously depressed area of the Cuse. Folk are upset that the money didn't go to a project they deem worthy for them to pay taxes on, the money still got spent, just not here. We are still going to be paying, some other community is going to reap the benefits. When life gives you lemons or limes, you make lemonade, and work on getting a bottle of tequila.

 

[orange126]

Convention center or not, the SU commitment is one powerful anchor. Seems to me the risk is reduced substantially and worthy of the municipalities investments as well as the private commitment. I am not invested in Syracuse but from the outside looking in it would appear to be a good a project as any for the governor's discretionary funds.

 

[HarrisonJBounel]

if anyone is interested in multiplierszzzzzzzzz

i will avoid a) opening my mouth and b) linking conservative or libertarian links

http://thinkprogress.org/yglesias/2011/03/18/200256/the-dubious-economics-of-convention-centers/

http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2005/01/01cities-sanders summary

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/reports/2005/1/01cities sanders/20050117_conventioncenters.pdf detailed

this author says that when a convention center does poorly, many governments will throw good money after bad to prop it up with more subsidies

http://m.theatlanticcities.com/politics/2012/06/stop-building-convention-centers/2210/

http://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/re/articles/?id=468

http://localannarbor.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/us_congr_2007_saunders.pdf

But it's a well known fact that if a convention center fails, it's because they didn't build enough rail lines in the city to get to it.

 

[cuseinchina]

This isn't a shared resource. It's a building that people pay to use. This isn't clean air

So you must be a big proponent of can and trade then.

 

[cuseinchina]

The retail and housing component is not that stimulative because it'll just shift it around.

You're going to need a whole lot of other events to justify a generous multiplier assumption

That hotel needs new people , the retail does too. Very big tourism bet

You are missing something fundamental about why cities participate in economic development plans that drive shifts in where investment is going. Will some of the new retail and housing shift spend from somewhere else in the region to downtown? Of course...why would anyone think otherwise.

What you are ignoring is that an apartment and a strip mall built in Auburn is not economically equivalent to an apartment building and urban retail space opening up downtown. A strong vibrant urban core is far more valuable than development and spending on the periphery. Without it there is absolutely positively zero reason for anyone to move to the city or stay after graduating unless you have local family ties. The strip mall in Auburn may as well be 30 minutes outside of Birmingham or some equally shi**y southern city where costs are lower and the weather is warmer. revitalizing downtown creates energy, excitement, and a reason for people under the age of 50 to want to stay in Syracuse - so the children of locals and maybe more importantly SU students looking for an affordable place to start out. You need artists and entrepreneurs to want to stay here...that is the model you have to go with because the old jobs aren't coming back. There is also opportunity to get some industrial growth if their can be investment in nat gas pipeline infrastructure to bring the benefits of shale drilling to the area (costs 80% lower than china gets rid of their labor cost advantage). But step 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 all involve making the downtown of Syracuse something people can get excited about. So while you may be shifting spend - the shift in spend has a tremendous long-term impact which again you can't value using your simple math because it's a very complex problem to solve - but directionally its clear that developments that enhance downtown create an intangible benefit that has significant real world value. to ignore that is to miss the point of urban planning and economic development in general. Governments can and should support investment, even mildly money losing investment, where the economic benefits of the development add up to more than any losses that may be suffered on the investment. And by the way when private capital is brought in as was proposed with the stadium, the numbers definitely are there or the money wouldn't be. Private money is not altruistic. And governments invest with total economic value/cost in mind, not just cash flows directly generated by the project in question. without government participation you couldn't get big projects done and a city like Syracuse may as well curl up in a ball and call it quits.

 

[Millhouse]

You are missing something fundamental about why cities participate in economic development plans that drive shifts in where investment is going. Will some of the new retail and housing shift spend from somewhere else in the region to downtown? Of course...why would anyone think otherwise.

What you are ignoring is that an apartment and a strip mall built in Auburn is not economically equivalent to an apartment building and urban retail space opening up downtown. A strong vibrant urban core is far more valuable than development and spending on the periphery. Without it there is absolutely positively zero reason for anyone to move to the city or stay after graduating unless you have local family ties. The strip mall in Auburn may as well be 30 minutes outside of Birmingham or some equally shi**y southern city where costs are lower and the weather is warmer. revitalizing downtown creates energy, excitement, and a reason for people under the age of 50 to want to stay in Syracuse - so the children of locals and maybe more importantly SU students looking for an affordable place to start out. You need artists and entrepreneurs to want to stay here...that is the model you have to go with because the old jobs aren't coming back. There is also opportunity to get some industrial growth if their can be investment in nat gas pipeline infrastructure to bring the benefits of shale drilling to the area (costs 80% lower than china gets rid of their labor cost advantage). But step 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 all involve making the downtown of Syracuse something people can get excited about. So while you may be shifting spend - the shift in spend has a tremendous long-term impact which again you can't value using your simple math because it's a very complex problem to solve - but directionally its clear that developments that enhance downtown create an intangible benefit that has significant real world value. to ignore that is to miss the point of urban planning and economic development in general. Governments can and should support investment, even mildly money losing investment, where the economic benefits of the development add up to more than any losses that may be suffered on the investment. And by the way when private capital is brought in as was proposed with the stadium, the numbers definitely are there or the money wouldn't be. Private money is not altruistic. And governments invest with total economic value/cost in mind, not just cash flows directly generated by the project in question. without government participation you couldn't get big projects done and a city like Syracuse may as well curl up in a ball and call it quits.

you've been reading too much richard florida

 

[cuseinchina]

you've been reading too much richard florida

A. I don't know who that is.
B. That's not a response that has any meaning whatsoever - per usual when challenged you either nitpick or avoid.
C. urban revitalization is real - people want to come in from the suburbs and NYC/LA/Boston/SF are getting to be too expensive for young people. The combination means that mid-sized cities with stuff to do and low costs can enjoy a resurgence in vitality and economic situation. What part of that would you dispute? And who's job is it do you think to encourage that type of development if not the state and local government?
D. What are your solutions. You seem to get off on nay-saying but offer nothing as an alternative. When the status quo is broken someone needs to do something - what do you think should be done? (your commentary reminds me of one of my favorite children's books my kid has called 'Big Plan's - you should read it I am totally serious - you are lacking in joie de vivre, this will help)

 

[Millhouse]

A. I don't know who that is.
B. That's not a response that has any meaning whatsoever - per usual when challenged you either nitpick or avoid.
C. urban revitalization is real - people want to come in from the suburbs and NYC/LA/Boston/SF are getting to be too expensive for young people. The combination means that mid-sized cities with stuff to do and low costs can enjoy a resurgence in vitality and economic situation. What part of that would you dispute? And who's job is it do you think to encourage that type of development if not the state and local government?
D. What are your solutions. You seem to get off on nay-saying but offer nothing as an alternative. When the status quo is broken someone needs to do something - what do you think should be done? (your commentary reminds me of one of my favorite children's books my kid has called 'Big Plan's - you should read it I am totally serious - you are lacking in joie de vivre, this will help)

my solution is to stop spending other people's money on every bullsh!t thing special interests can think up

you will enjoy florida's work, google him