Something to keep in mind about tourney projections

[pulaski74]

Every tourney projection out there is almost certainly taking into account the teams full body of work so far, meaning it includes the Hopkins games. The tourney committee head already said these games would be discounted to some degree, and since it makes so much sense given the stark difference between JB vs no-JB games, I believe him.

I would guess that whatever projection you look at, you could probably bump SU 8-10 spots up the S curve, if not more. That smaller JB coached samples is heavy on good wins with the Atlantis games and now Duke.

your right, and luke walton had a rough go until steve kerr returned. The players play, not the coach. JB is my hero but Hop didn't lose the games, players did

 

[Alsacs]

Sorry Alsacs, it should have been Oregon St on my list, not Oregon, which only makes it a little weaker.

As for LSU, they are not yet on the radar per that projected data, but I certainly can see them play there way on to it at same point. They expect them to go 11-7 which is probably lower than expected as they are on an upward tend.

With a record of 11-7 in the SEC, they would have an RPI of 92. They had a terrible OOC - nothing positive about it at all. However, I do think they could get it to 13-5 which would make the RPI a little more digestible for the committee (around 60). But still it's empty in the OOC. If they could beat Oklahoma this weekend it would obviously be huge.

I noticed Lunardi had them in the last 4 in yesterday, in his "as of now" projection. I don't see how that is possible.

LSU and Clemson could be interesting bubble teams this year if they really go with the entire body of work concept.

I would slide Florida State in then if I were on the committee over Oregon State.

Lunardi can't honestly look at the resume of LSU and think right now they would be in. I get Ben Simmons is a freak talent but that team doesn't have the wins right now to even be in the next 4 out.

 

[jncuse]

Gonzaga is definetely in trouble this year. They will get respect for playing a tough OOC, but all they have is a win over UConn and Washington.

They have only played 2 games of note in conference and lost them both. They have 3 more games of note - AT BYU, AT SMU, St. Mary's. I would think they need to go 2-1 in those games - not an easy task based on how they are currently playing.

 

[Knicks411]

Gonzaga is definetely in trouble this year. They will get respect for playing a tough OOC, but all they have is a win over UConn and Washington.

They have only played 2 games of note in conference and lost them both. They have 3 more games of note - AT BYU, AT SMU, St. Mary's. I would think they need to go 2-1 in those games - not an easy task based on how they are currently playing.

Still betting they win the conf tournament

 

[Alsacs]

Gonzaga is definetely in trouble this year. They will get respect for playing a tough OOC, but all they have is a win over UConn and Washington.

They have only played 2 games of note in conference and lost them both. They have 3 more games of note - AT BYU, AT SMU, St. Mary's. I would think they need to go 2-1 in those games - not an easy task based on how they are currently playing.

They are the opposite of Syracuse. Their frontline is awesome but their backcourt is horrible.
Gonzaga backcourt is awful. However I think they could win the WCC conference tourney. They lost 2 home games to UCLA and Arizona that would doom them, but the bubble as we have said is so weak again.

 

[KaiserUEO]

just so im clear, its a good thing the committee is going to look at the games Hop coached and go...whoa, thats some real shlittyass coaching there. it wont be fair to the team to count them as if JB had coached.

and you guys still want him to take over for JB...

 

[pearl31]

Fwiw, Lunardi had LSU as his last team in on Monday.

Simmons effect.
remember that with Lunardi (as with the other projectors probably) he likes to sort of do his own thing up until selection Sunday and then he suddenly falls right in line with what is logical/evidence-based. He's like those 247 recruiting dudes who don't make their crystal ball until minutes before a kid announces

 

[pearl31]

Still betting they win the conf tournament

Possibly, but St. Marys (and BYU probably) is legitimately better than them this year

 

[jncuse]

The Zags can certainly get in the tourney that way. They may be in the position of being a bubble buster that we need to look out for in the last few weeks of the season.

 

[kirbivore]

just so im clear, its a good thing the committee is going to look at the games Hop coached and go...whoa, thats some real shlittyass coaching there. it wont be fair to the team to count them as if JB had coached.

and you guys still want him to take over for JB...

not me

 

[FrancoPizza]

If we're on the bubble, we're not getting in. Period. History is the best teacher. That St Johns loss can be cherry-picked in any resume comparison. "But they had one of the worst losses in human history... that should count as 3 losses."

 

[tbonezone]

just so im clear, its a good thing the committee is going to look at the games Hop coached and go...whoa, thats some real shlittyass coaching there. it wont be fair to the team to count them as if JB had coached.

and you guys still want him to take over for JB...

true. anyone who drinks a glass of "JB factor" needs to chase it down with a stiff shot of "hopkins can't coach".

 

[pearl31]

true. anyone who drinks a glass of "JB factor" needs to chase it down with a stiff shot of "hopkins can't coach".

Wrong (again).

 

[kirbivore]

If we're on the bubble, we're not getting in. Period. History is the best teacher. That St Johns loss can be cherry-picked in any resume comparison. "But they had one of the worst losses in human history... that should count as 3 losses."

You're right. The lowest at large seed SU has ever gotten is #8.

 

[OrangeDW]

Why is Florida a 9 seed right now? They lost to every single good team they played out of conference. Are they getting credit for playing and losing to good teams because when your best wins are Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, and Auburn...you're very mediocre. We're better than they are.

 

[SUalldway]

Why is Florida a 9 seed right now? They lost to every single good team they played out of conference. Are they getting credit for playing and losing to good teams because when your best wins are Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, and Auburn...you're very mediocre. We're better than they are.

Orange - Way mo' better !

 

[jncuse]

You're right. The lowest at large seed SU has ever gotten is #8.

A big reason for that is that we get in the tournament most years. The year's we have not, we deserved the trip to the NIT or were on some sort of suspension. With one exception -- 2007.

 

[kirbivore]

Why is Florida a 9 seed right now? They lost to every single good team they played out of conference. Are they getting credit for playing and losing to good teams because when your best wins are Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, and Auburn...you're very mediocre. We're better than they are.

a noine seed?