SP+ Week 7 and good news of the week in stats, because we all need it | Syracusefan.com

SP+ Week 7 and good news of the week in stats, because we all need it

TheCusian

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Here's a look at where we are and where our opponents are via Bill Connelly's SP+. I also included some defensive efficiency numbers from ESPN. I was looking for us on the list in the 80's - but we are pretty solid compared to our peers.

Last weeks rankings our in parenthesis, arrows denote movement.

SP+ OverallSP+ Offensive RankingSP+ Defensive RankingSP+ Special Teams RankingDefensive Efficiency Ranking
↔ 8 Clemson (8)↓ 19 (15)↑ 7 (10)↓ 82 (64)2
↓ 43 Maryland (36)↓ 56 (51)↓ 44 (34)↓ 125 (124)58
48 Duke (46)↑ 71 (73)↓ 43 (41)↓ 34 (31)26
↑ 49 Wake Forest (51)↑ 26 (43)↓ 78 (71)↑ 41 (49)80
↑ 52 NC State (58)↓ 88 (81)↑ 34 (43)↑ 40 (46)56
↑ 53 Pittsburgh (57)↓ 114 (112)↑ 11 (15)↓ 112 (111)27
↑ 57 Louisville (62)↑ 20 (35)↓ 91 (86)↑ 46 (50)78
↓ 58 Florida State (45)↓ 28 (22)↓ 84 (78)↓ 93 (74)72
↓ 66 Syracuse (65)↓ 80 (71)↑ 50 (65)↓ 9 (3)40
↑ 69 Boston College (74)↑ 30 (31)↑ 101 (102)↓ 90 (89)101
↓ 95 Western Michigan (87)↓ 78 (58)↑ 98 (104)↓ 107 (104)84
↓ 96 Liberty (91)↓ 95 (94)↑ 80 (81)↑ 86 (88)81
 
I don't love that we'll be playing the second toughest defense on our schedule this week in Pitt. Hopefully, we can learn to throw a quick slant over the middle or some WR screens to negate the blitz this week, but I don't have my hopes up.
 
I don't love that we'll be playing the second toughest defense on our schedule this week in Pitt. Hopefully, we can learn to throw a quick slant over the middle or some WR screens to negate the blitz this week, but I don't have my hopes up.

That’s why I’m not thinking we look better on Friday. I think it will be ugly and low scoring
 
Pitt is #2 nationally in sacks. They are #16 nationally vs the run.

This game is calling out for one extreme or the other. Either max protect and throw it deep a lot or go 4 wide and spread them out and go full air raid and hope Tommy doesn't get killed.
 
Pitt is #2 nationally in sacks. They are #16 nationally vs the run.

This game is calling out for one extreme or the other. Either max protect and throw it deep a lot or go 4 wide and spread them out and go full air raid and hope Tommy doesn't get killed.

Would like to see the Riley run 5 yards turn around quick passes when we go 4 wide
Have a bad feeling if we go max protect
 
Would like to see the Riley run 5 yards turn around quick passes when we go 4 wide
Have a bad feeling if we go max protect

Agree. I think the way to beat Narduzzi is to not be goaded into meathead ball but attack and force him to adjust to an accurate QB who is slinging it
 
Does Pitt really have a worse offense than Liberty? What is the O/U on this game? 30?
 
how do you tell how good Pitts D is..

ohio/del dont count

Duke had little trouble moving the ball but had 6 TOs so few yds.
UCF had 400+ and 34
PSU had almost 400 but didnt score
Virg they held to 300 but still allowed 40 but they had 240 vs ODU and 300 vs Miami and 340 vs ND too

woundnt surprise me we score 10 and lose. but I think thats more us than Pitts D.
 
how do you tell how good Pitts D is..

ohio/del dont count

Duke had little trouble moving the ball but had 6 TOs so few yds.
UCF had 400+ and 34
PSU had almost 400 but didnt score
Virg they held to 300 but still allowed 40 but they had 240 vs ODU and 300 vs Miami and 340 vs ND too

woundnt surprise me we score 10 and lose. but I think thats more us than Pitts D.

Explaining S&P+, CFB’s deepest advanced analytics system

I’d start there. SP+ analyzes drive data for every game, looking for things that are repeatable predictors of future outcomes.

There’s a lot there, but an example might be something like PITT v UCF. 400 yards and 34 points might seem like a lot - but they’ve been destroying teams for a couple of years now. How well was PITT able to slow down a typically explosive or effecient offense compared to the other teams UCF has played. Combine that with similar “traits” found in the data, and you might see a combination of stopping red zone scoring, sacks/TFL, and a lot of 3rd and longs. Sometimes two teams play and it’s not good defense, it’s fluky TO’s, missed FG, etc.
 
I don't love that we'll be playing the second toughest defense on our schedule this week in Pitt. Hopefully, we can learn to throw a quick slant over the middle or some WR screens to negate the blitz this week, but I don't have my hopes up.
Only upside to playing so bad on O is that Pitt has no tape on our good stuff.
 
Nobody is scared of this offense. C'mon.

believe what you want, but I’d bet a lot of money that the first weapon opposing defenses plan for is WR1 - he’s a top 4 WR in the ACC and has a guy who throws a nice deep ball
 

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