SP+

[upperdeck]

Looking at Connellys system it does make you wonder what it values

We finally broke into the top 50 in it.

But Utah never looked good nor did UNC nor did Mich nor did Auburn nor did Ok

We finished 3-4 games ahead of some of these teams

Nice that we beat 4 of the teams ahead of us as Well

 

[javadoc]

Looking at Connellys system it does make you wonder what it values

We finally broke into the top 50 in it.

But Utah never looked good nor did UNC nor did Mich nor did Auburn nor did Ok

We finished 3-4 games ahead of some of these teams

Nice that we beat 4 of the teams ahead of us as Well

His own description says that it values doing things well. It's supposed to be able to sort out luck from consistency. I think it must value defense in a way that we did not demonstrate this year. We were good (enough) when our backs were against the wall, which his system may treat as "lucky". But at some point it becomes a pattern and not luck.

One thing we did do well was convert 3rd and 4th downs, I think (don't have the numbers in front of me), and that has to be given a ton of weight if your algorithm favors assertiveness and controlling your own destiny. Maybe his algo has meathead baked into it and favors defense (low yards) vs not letting the opposing defense get it in the first place.

 

[NKR1978]

His own description says that it values doing things well. It's supposed to be able to sort out luck from consistency. I think it must value defense in a way that we did not demonstrate this year. We were good (enough) when our backs were against the wall, which his system may treat as "lucky". But at some point it becomes a pattern and not luck.

One thing we did do well was convert 3rd and 4th downs, I think (don't have the numbers in front of me), and that has to be given a ton of weight if your algorithm favors assertiveness and controlling your own destiny. Maybe his algo has meathead baked into it and favors defense (low yards) vs not letting the opposing defense get it in the first place.

We really weren't lucky though. We made plays when we needed to make plays in 9 out 12 games. We had very few turnovers, which I believe is also labelled as "luck."

The luckiest we got were bonehead coaching decisions.

 

[upperdeck]

I get that.

But just using OK as an example

Struggled with Hous
Dominated by Tenn but D was ok
Dominated by Auburn
Dominated by Tex
Dominated by USC
Dominated by Miss
Decent vs MIzz
Beat up Ala
Dominated by LSU

Allowed about 30 vs all the decent teams and couldn"t score on any of them. allowed about 350-400

 

[upperdeck]

We really weren't lucky though. We made plays when we needed to make plays in 9 out 12 games. We had very few turnovers, which I believe is also labelled as "luck."

The luckiest we got were bonehead coaching decisions.

Luck would imply winning turnover margin by a good amount though.

 

[LeMoyneCuse]

Parker Flemming’s model didn’t know what to do with Cuse either. Lots of close games will do that:

 

[690West]

Same with Sagarin. We’re still 44th there.

 

[721Comstock]

Same with Sagarin. We’re still 44th there.

#BRAND.

 

[Jake]

It may not have been luck, but we had three opposing coaches play for OT or bet on their defense getting a stop against our offense.

All three took an “L”.

 

[All4SU]

It may not have been luck, but we had three opposing coaches play for OT or bet on their defense getting a stop against our offense.

All three took an “L”.

I’ve never been more confident in a team being able to go down the field and get points. Ever.

 

[NKR1978]

I’ve never been more confident in a team being able to go down the field and get points. Ever.

Wasn’t even a little concerned at UNLV.

 

[Millhouse]

It may not have been luck, but we had three opposing coaches play for OT or bet on their defense getting a stop against our offense.

All three took an “L”.

That and we throw more
Per pass and per rush tell you how good you are at each but it doesn't tell how much better it is throw all the time
I doubt connelly system rewards teams that throw all day enough

 

[djorange1989]

That and we throw more
Per pass and per rush tell you how good you are at each but it doesn't tell how much better it is throw all the time
I doubt connelly system rewards teams that throw all day enough

Exactly, both our per rush offense and defense were bad, but our time of possession was great. So not only does it not take into account that throwing more can be better but when you throw the way we do, you can dominate TOP

 

[upperdeck]

The has been some research that kinda implies be really good at one thing and not avg at 2.

One reason Army thrives is they work on the run so much more than the pass .

With our offense we probably should have run even less, give Kyle 3 chances every series to make the 10 yds.

The oline would have only had to be better at 1 thing.

when we got to the redzone take penalties to open the field.

Get rid of the RB, go to 6 man oline