Reply to thread

Message: [QUOTE="Cusefan95, post: 2148360, member: 173"] Two thoughts: 1). One of the podcasts I follow talks with Rob Vollman at the start of each hockey season, and he discusses new analytics he's using/developing. He makes the point often that quality of data matters (which has historically been a big problem in hockey) - and even with good data it's critical to actually watch to see if trends you think you you've uncovered are real or just blips. Regardless, he has radically changed the way I watch hockey over the last 4-5 years. (The key turning point was when the Blackhawks were like the 6 seed in the west and he was picking them entering the playoffs to win the Stanley Cup; they demolished everyone on the way to winning. The data showed they were by far the best team in the league but had the worst "puck luck" in the last 25 years at least - the data was right). 2) Most people are idiots, and all people are biased. Saying your eyes will tell you everything you need to know makes you susceptible to confirmation bias...and frankly confirms you are one of the numerous idiots. I still see people pointing to things in Moneyball that were relevant twenty years ago but don't apply today to "prove" analytics doesn't work (hi, Joe Morgan!)- the only thing they prove is they have no idea what they are talking about. One example is working pitch count was a great strategy in the 90's, because bullpen pitchers were generally terrible. There's a reason bullpen pitchers make substantially more now than 20 years ago - by focusing on improved pitching teams largely negated working pitch count to get starters out as an advantage. The Royals didn't work pitch counts at all when they won the World Series two years ago...I saw at least three articles talking about their "anti-Moneyball" approach. None of the authors demonstrated that they understood baseball had shifted as a whole and that wasn't a focus area in 2015 - the all implied it showed Billy Beane was wrong. Because they, like most people, were likely idiots. [/QUOTE]

Verification: What is a Syracuse fan's favorite color?