Sports Gambling Thread

[Alsacs]

Razorbacks +7 vs. Texas

Arkansas State +5.5 vs. Memphis

 

[TheHaze315]

Have $200 on Iowa straight, hopefully they hold on

 

[TheHaze315]

Also not sure how many of you in this thread are local, but delago uses draftkings compared to turning stone and point place who use caesars, it’s light years better. worth the 45 minute drive if you’re in the North Syracuse/Cicero area

 

[Alsacs]

Razorbacks +7 vs. Texas

I have 5 units on Arkansas ML.
It was my biggest play.
I just need Arkansas State.

I gotta say I am having an unusual really hot start this year in college football.

Last play of the night is Utah -7.
Charlie Brewer over BYU.

 

[Alsacs]

Arkansas State +5.5 vs. Memphis

If this Backdoor comes thru I will be 4-0 for the day.
Oregon+14.5, Iowa ML, Arkansas ML, Arkansas St. +5.5.

I got Utah -7 as well.
But damn I might need to try a parlay next week.

 

[jncuse]

I looked at the odds this morning for AL MVP and I saw the following:

Ohtani -5000
Guerrero +1400

There is no doubt in my mind that Ohtani wins the MVP if the season ended today and is very, very likely to win the MVP at season's end.

But is there value at Guerrero at +1400?
Say the following:
- Jays make the playoffs, Guerrero has a massive last 20 games and wins September Player of the Month.
- Guerrero wins the Triple Crown (1 HR back, and 6 RBI's Back as of today)
- Ohtani struggles on the mound to close the season (His ERA has raised from 2.79 to 3.36 in his last 3 starts -- what if it continues to trend downwards)
At this point it becomes much closer.

Not saying that Guerrero is likely to win the award. Not even close to that. Just that there are scenarios that make +1400 seem like decent value.

 

[Alsacs]

I looked at the odds this morning for AL MVP and I saw the following:

Ohtani -5000
Guerrero +1400

There is no doubt in my mind that Ohtani wins the MVP if the season ended today and is very, very likely to win the MVP at season's end.

But is there value at Guerrero at +1400?
Say the following:
- Jays make the playoffs, Guerrero has a massive last 20 games and wins September Player of the Month.
- Guerrero wins the Triple Crown (1 HR back, and 6 RBI's Back as of today)
- Ohtani struggles on the mound to close the season (His ERA has raised from 2.79 to 3.36 in his last 3 starts -- what if it continues to trend downwards)
At this point it becomes much closer.

Not saying that Guerrero is likely to win the award. Just that there are scenarios that make +1400 seem like decent value.

No value as it’s a lock for Ohtani.
He might finish top 5 for Cy Young and has all those HRs.

The bet is where Ohtani wins it unanimously or whether a Blue Jay beat writer voter throws a vote to Vladdy Jr.

I like Vladdy Jr. but that race is over.

 

[jncuse]

No value as it’s a lock for Ohtani.
He might finish top 5 for Cy Young and has all those HRs.

The bet is where Ohtani wins it unanimously or whether a Blue Jay beat writer voter throws a vote to Vladdy Jr.

I like Vladdy Jr. but that race is over.

If Jays make the playoffs, Vlad wins the triple crown and is September player of the month, I think there will be more than one voter who votes for him to win the MVP (maybe up to 5). Nowhere near enough to win the MVP mind you ... Ohtani would have to slump really, really badly to close on both sides of the field such that the WAR gap of 7.7 vs 5.8 closes a lot which is hard to envision.

 

[jncuse]

Part of the reason I brought up the topic is I was having the discussion with a friend and I was adamant that Guerrero had 0% chance as Vegas would not throw out -5000 and +1400 odds without knowing what they are doing. They read what most public voters had already stated and said they were going to do. He said triple crown -- and I said no chance.

But then I started to think about it further independently and convinced myself that I may be wrong if things go to the extremes in the last 20 games.

 

[JustPherU]

Betting NFL is hard enough, but week one always scares me.I like the Skins or should I say “The Team” but it’s a crapshoot today.
Give me The Team and The Phins ML parlay for a little bit.

 

[Alsacs]

I like Minnesota -3 and Cleveland +5.5.

LA -7.5 and SF-8 seems like Vegas zone lines.

In betting NFL it takes about 2 weeks to determine trends.
Last year underdogs and the points were money.

 

[rrlbees]

Carolina -3.5
NE -3.5
Seattle -3
Green Bay -3.5

 

[JustPherU]

Carolina -3.5
NE -3.5
Seattle -3
Green Bay -3.5

All the half point are scary.

 

[jncuse]

I don't tend to watch the NFL much. but some years I tend to give it a try. Will watch it today.

Just put a measly $10 on the money line for all the 15 dogs this week to give me somebody to root for today.

 

[Alsacs]

I actually have Texans over Jaguars as well.
If the Jaguars win this game then I think Urban will be fine but this appears to be a spot to take the Texans so they get their 1 win atleast.

 

[JustPherU]

I don't tend to watch the NFL much. but some years I tend to give it a try. Will watch it today.

Just put a measly $10 on the money line for all the 15 dogs this week to give me somebody to root for today.

Like your strategy, I’m usually a dog player myself.

 

[Alsacs]

I don't tend to watch the NFL much. but some years I tend to give it a try. Will watch it today.

Just put a measly $10 on the money line for all the 15 dogs this week to give me somebody to root for today.

If you did all 15 it’s got to be more than.

 

[JustPherU]

If you did all 15 it’s got to be more than.

If you did all 15 it’s got to be more than.

I think he meant single bets not parlay

 

[jncuse]

I think he meant single bets not parlay

Fifteen $10 Single bets and not the parlay.

But as I ticked them all in at the same time, they did give me the parlay option.
The 15 Team Parlay was about 3,200,000 to 1.
I was tempted to put down the min bet of $0.20 to win about $800,000 but why throw away money even $0.20.

 

[jncuse]

I don't tend to watch the NFL much. but some years I tend to give it a try. Will watch it today.

Just put a measly $10 on the money line for all the 15 dogs this week to give me somebody to root for today.

The dogs so far today are 5-4 straight up.

 

[jncuse]

I don't tend to watch the NFL much. but some years I tend to give it a try. Will watch it today.

Just put a measly $10 on the money line for all the 15 dogs this week to give me somebody to root for today.

So the dogs went 6-3 straight up in the 1:00 games.
I have basically broken even before the last 6 games are even played.
The dogs are now 4-0 straight up in the 4:00 games.

Lesson is I do just as good with no thought as compared to when I bet with what I "think" is sound judgment.

 

[BuffOrange]

Betting NFL is hard enough, but week one always scares me.I like the Skins or should I say “The Team” but it’s a crapshoot today.
Give me The Team and The Phins ML parlay for a little bit.

I hear this a lot from bettors as if they make more savvy adjustments to team strength than Vegas after a week or two...seems unlikely.

 

[Alsacs]

3 units on Bayern Munich -105 over Barcelona today.

 

[cusefan88]

3 units on Bayern Munich -105 over Barcelona today.

Easy money. Barca are horrific this year. Nice play.

 

[jncuse]

I like the over of 9 in the Orioles Yanks match tonight.

Yes the Yanks have Cole going, but I suspect they are not going to stretch him beyond 5 innings coming back.