Statistical Matchup vs NC State | Syracusefan.com

Statistical Matchup vs NC State

TheCusian

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I think I might try to do this for every opponent. It makes sense to wait until about 4 games in where there is enough real data to see trends. I like Bill C’s S&P+ work over at SB Nation, so I’ll pull some from that and mix it with some other points that make sense (I hope). One note about the S&P+: Bill does a great preseason ranking where he goes through and factors in the previous season, players lost, etc. As the season goes on this preseason ranking gets replaced with real game data. By week 7, it’s removed entirely).



NC State (3-1) vs Syracuse (2-2)

There are no shared opponents yet.


Syracuse has a 35% of a win according to S&P+ (Syracuse statistical profile)

Strength of Schedule, so far
NC State, Average Opponent S&P+: 53
Syracuse, Average Opponent S&P+: 67

S&P+ Ranking
NC State: #32
Syracuse: #51



OFFENSE

Offense S&P+
NC State: #33
Syracuse: #54

Yards per Play (tempo free)
NC State: 6.01, #48 nationally, #6 in the ACC
Syracuse: 5.35, #98 nationally, #11 in the ACC

Yards per Game
NC State: 461, #41 nationally, #8 in the ACC
Syracuse: 464, #39 nationally, #7 in the ACC

Scoring Offense

NC State: 35.3, #45 nationally, #8 in the ACC
Syracuse: 35.0, #46 nationally, #9 in the ACC

Points per Possession (tempo free)
NC State: 0.376, #69 nationally
Syracuse: 0.342, #81 nationally

Passing Yards/ATT (tempo free)
NC State: 7.7, #55 nationally, #7 in the ACC
Syracuse: 6.5, #99 nationally, #12 in the ACC

Passing Completion % (tempo free)
NC State: 74.2%, #6 nationally, #1 in the ACC
Syracuse: 62.9%, #46 nationally, #9 in the ACC

Passing Yards per Game
NC State: 314.8, #15 nationally, #2 in the ACC
Syracuse: 300, #26 nationally, #4 in the ACC

Rushing Yards per Attempt (tempo free)
NC State: 4.06, #85 nationally, #9 in the ACC
Syracuse: 4.08, #83 nationally, #8 in the ACC

Rushing Yards per Game
NC State: 146.25, #10 in the ACC
Syracuse: 164.25, #8 in the ACC



DEFENSE

Defense S&P+
NC State: #39
Syracuse: #57

Yards per Play allowed (tempo free)
NC State: 5.65, #82 nationally, #11 in the ACC
Syracuse: 4.97, #40 nationally, #7 in the ACC

Yards per Game allowed
NC State: 352, #47 nationally, #9 in the ACC
Syracuse: 331.5, #36 nationally, #7 in the ACC

Scoring Defense
NC State: 23.0, #53 nationally, #8 in the ACC
Syracuse: 22.3, #50 nationally, #7 in the ACC

Pass Defense Yards/ATT (tempo free)
NC State: 8.2, #99 nationally, #12 in the ACC
Syracuse: 7.0, #61 nationally, #7 in the ACC

Pass Defense Competion % (tempo free)
NC State: 58.5%, #64 nationally, #9 in the ACC
Syracuse: 53.8%, #32 nationally, #6 in the ACC

Passing Yards per Game allowed
NC State: 259.8, #99 nationally, #11 in the ACC
Syracuse: 230.5, #70 nationally, #9 in the ACC

Rush Yards per Attempt allowed (tempo free)

NC State: 3.10, #24 nationally, #4 in the ACC
Syracuse: 2.99, #18 nationally, #3 in the ACC

Rushing Yards per Game allowed
NC State: 92.25, #11 nationally, #2 in the ACC
Syracuse: 101.00, #22 nationally, #5 in the ACC



MISCELLANEOUS

Turnover Margin
NC State: 1.25, #14 nationally, tied for #1 in the ACC with 4 teams
Syracuse: 0.00, #59 nationally, #8 in the ACC

S&P+ Special Teams
NC State: #107
Syracuse: #2!
 
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Wow, who would have ever thought that our defense would be winning in most of these categories.
 
I can't believe 35 points per game puts you 8th in the ACC.
 
Wow, who would have ever thought that our defense would be winning in most of these categories.

For sure. The other weird one is that we’re the better running team so far. I think it’s mostly due to Dungey being mobile vs their QB. But hey.
 
I think the NC St offense is underrated. Scoring 28 and 27 against South Carolina and FSU is a good indicator that they can line up and move the ball easily on anybody.
 
I think the NC St offense is underrated. Scoring 28 and 27 against South Carolina and FSU is a good indicator that they can line up and move the ball easily on anybody.

For sure on FSU (though, we know less about them since they've played only 2 games, It's safe to say they are very good defensively). South Carolina is not a great defense or team so far...
 
For sure on FSU (though, we know less about them since they've played only 2 games, It's safe to say they are very good defensively). South Carolina is not a great defense or team so far...
They also had a three week layoff. Lack of game experience hurt FSU. I'm not ready to chalk up State just yet.
 
I think I might try to do this for every opponent. It makes sense to wait until about 4 games in where there is enough real data to see trends. I like Bill C’s S&P+ work over at SB Nation, so I’ll pull some from that and mix it with some other points that make sense (I hope). One note about the S&P+: Bill does a great preseason ranking where he goes through and factors in the previous season, players lost, etc. As the season goes on this preseason ranking gets replaced with real game data. By week 7, it’s removed entirely).


Great break out Cusian

It will be a close win or loss - depends on how we play.

We are changing to become among those in the top five every year and we can’t have perfectly thrown passes dropped anywhere especially in the end zone.

OITNF isn’t yet. What we need is more overall speed and we’re getting there.

OT

Next year we’ll be faster, (looking at some recruits 40 times), especially Jawhar Jordan 4.37 RB Hamilton HS chandler AZ. He will be an overall difference maker in the backfield whenever he gets to play. It’s about time we had an ankle breaker at tailback. His current stats are through 5 games: 693 YDS Rush, 43 Rec, 736 TYDS, 13 TDS. Dino is trying to get speed and talent in whatever position he recruits.
 
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All I know is if we stay at #2 in special teams S&P (or anywhere near it), Justin Lustig deserves a healthy raise. Botched onsides kick and all.
 
That number will come down with conference play a bit, I’d think.
Maybe, but probably not against us.

Passing Yards per Game
NC State: 314.8, #15 nationally, #2 in the ACC
Syracuse: 300, #26 nationally, #4 in the ACC

Passing Yards per Game allowed
NC State: 259.8, #99 nationally, #11 in the ACC
Syracuse: 230.5, #70 nationally, #9 in the ACC
 
Maybe, but probably not against us.

Passing Yards per Game
NC State: 314.8, #15 nationally, #2 in the ACC
Syracuse: 300, #26 nationally, #4 in the ACC

Passing Yards per Game allowed
NC State: 259.8, #99 nationally, #11 in the ACC
Syracuse: 230.5, #70 nationally, #9 in the ACC

Yep. I’d predict a shootout this weekend.

Both teams can’t run and like to pass. Neither are great at stopping the pass.
 
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They also had a three week layoff. Lack of game experience hurt FSU. I'm not ready to chalk up State just yet.

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Cusian, the points per possession doesn't calculate properly in your post.

The data I have seen has Syracuse at 2.19 points per possession (70th nationally) on offense and 1.35 points per possession against for defense (26th nationally).
 
Cusian, the points per possession doesn't calculate properly in your post.

The data I have seen has Syracuse at 2.19 points per possession (70th nationally) on offense and 1.35 points per possession against for defense (26th nationally).

I’ll check my source. Might be using or not using FCS games or just plain wrong. Appreciate the heads up.
 
This is kind of a “duh” thing - but it’s still interesting to see it in a side by side comparison..

Funny thing looking at these numbers. You can really see the untapped potential of the offense. We average slightly more total yards per game than NC State and yet are way under them in yards per play.

We take more snaps to achieve the same yardage. You can and should look at that and be bummed that we’re not great on O yet. But we should also look at that and think - what happens if our yards per play avg was in the top 20 with the same snap count? Would look a lot like Baylor’s numbers from the Briles era.

We’ll see how close we can get this year. But so far, we’re a ways away.
 
This is kind of a “duh” thing - but it’s still interesting to see it in a side by side comparison..

Funny thing looking at these numbers. You can really see the untapped potential of the offense. We average slightly more total yards per game than NC State and yet are way under them in yards per play.

We take more snaps to achieve the same yardage. You can and should look at that and be bummed that we’re not great on O yet. But we should also look at that and think - what happens if our yards per play avg was in the top 20 with the same snap count? Would look a lot like Baylor’s numbers from the Briles era.

We’ll see how close we can get this year. But so far, we’re a ways away.
He did say somewhere between the 4th and 6th game of the second season it will click and we will see it.

If we do any clicking (even a little) against NC St and the defense plays the way it has been, we should win the game.
 
NC State has all the tools to win this game handily. Another tough test but it comes down to our offense again. I feel like Dungy needs to play a consistent full game. Skill players need to be focused. O line continues its development. I am not holding out much hope for a win but I'll be rooting for it.
 
NC State has all the tools to win this game handily. Another tough test but it comes down to our offense again. I feel like Dungy needs to play a consistent full game. Skill players need to be focused. O line continues its development. I am not holding out much hope for a win but I'll be rooting for it.

I don’t know. They get more buzz nationally, but by the stats they aren’t that different than us. Bit better on O, little bit worse on D.

I wouldn’t be shocked with a W or a L - but I’d be shocked at a blowout.
 
All I know is if we stay at #2 in special teams S&P (or anywhere near it), Justin Lustig deserves a healthy raise. Botched onsides kick and all.

Our punter can make any coach look smarter. He needs to get Cole Murphy to kick the ball in bounds and the way the coaches want it.

Don’t give him too much credit.
 
Our punter can make any coach look smarter. He needs to get Cole Murphy to kick the ball in bounds and the way the coaches want it.

Don’t give him too much credit.
Yeah, you're right. Spend the money on sabbaticals for creative writing professors instead.
 
Yeah, you're right. Spend the money on sabbaticals for creative writing professors instead.

Or towards recruiting.

But enjoy your writing sabbaticals!
 

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