Statistical Matchup vs Pitt

[TheCusian]

I like Bill C’s S&P+ work over at SB Nation, so I’ll pull some from that and mix it with some other points that make sense (I hope). One note about the S&P+: Bill does a great preseason ranking where he goes through and factors in the previous season, players lost, etc. As the season goes on this preseason ranking gets replaced with real game data. By week 7, it’s removed entirely).

Update: Removed Points per Possession, didn’t trust the source. Added 3rd Down % to both O and D. Added Offensive Efficiency, Offensive Explosiveness, Finishing Drives (Pts per trip in the 40), Defensive Efficiency, Defensive Explosiveness, Stopping Drives (Pts per trip in the 40 allowed).

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Pittsburgh (2-3) vs Syracuse (2-3)
There are no shared opponents yet.

Syracuse has a 69% of a win according to S&P+ (Syracuse statistical profile)

Strength of Schedule, so far
Pitt, Average Opponent S&P+: 43.5
Syracuse, Average Opponent S&P+: 63.5

S&P+ Ranking
Pitt: #83
Syracuse: #55

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OFFENSE

Offense S&P+
Pitt: #52
Syracuse: #61

Offensive Efficiency (National Avg: 40.1%)
Pitt: 44.5%, #43 nationally
Syracuse: 39.1%, #96 nationally

Offensive Explosiveness (National Avg: 1.17)
Pitt: 0.96, #124 nationally
Syracuse: 1.13, #81 nationally

Finishing Drives, Pts. Per Trip in 40 (National Avg: 4.38)
Pitt: 4.12, #97 nationally
Syracuse: 4.72, #55 nationally

Yards per Play (tempo free)
Pitt: 5.07, #106 nationally, #12 in the ACC
Syracuse: 5.41, #88 nationally, #10 in the ACC

Yards per Game
Pitt: 359, #96 nationally, #12 in the ACC
Syracuse: 460.2, #34 nationally, #7 in the ACC

Scoring Offense
Pitt: 24.4, #97 nationally, #12 in the ACC
Syracuse: 33.0, #53 nationally, #9 in the ACC

3rd Down Conversion %
Pitt: 36.11%, #91 nationally, #11 in the ACC
Syracuse: 42.11%, #48 nationally, #5 in the ACC

Passing Yards/ATT (tempo free)
Pitt: 7.2, # nationally, #9 in the ACC
Syracuse: 6.8, #99 nationally, #11 in the ACC

Passing Completion % (tempo free)
Pitt: 65.7%, #22 nationally, #3 in the ACC
Syracuse: 62.8%, #45 nationally, #9 in the ACC

Passing Yards per Game
Pitt: 244.6, #58 nationally, #8 in the ACC
Syracuse: 317, #15 nationally, #2 in the ACC

Rushing Yards per Attempt (tempo free)
Pitt: 3.09, #117 nationally, #13 in the ACC
Syracuse: 3.75, #93 nationally, #11 in the ACC

Rushing Yards per Game
Pitt: 114.40, #109 nationally, #13 in the ACC
Syracuse: 143.20, #82 nationally, #10 in the ACC

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DEFENSE

Defense S&P+
Pitt: #93
Syracuse: #61

Defensive Efficiency (National Avg: 40.3%)
Pitt: 45.5%, #110 nationally
Syracuse: 38.2%, #48 nationally

Defensive Explosiveness (National Avg: 1.17)
Pitt: 1.25, #99 nationally
Syracuse: 1.24, #96 nationally

Stopping Drives, Pts. Per Trip in 40 (National Avg: 4.41)
Pitt: 4.97, #103 nationally
Syracuse: 4.17, #57 nationally

Yards per Play allowed (tempo free)
Pitt: 6.97, #126 nationally, #14 in the ACC
Syracuse: 5.14, #44 nationally, #10 in the ACC

Yards per Game allowed
Pitt: 433.4, #104 nationally, #13 in the ACC
Syracuse: 357.6, #50 nationally, #9 in the ACC

Scoring Defense
Pitt: 31.6, #101 nationally, #11 in the ACC
Syracuse: 24.4, #54 nationally, #10 in the ACC

Opponent 3rd Down Conversion %
Pitt: 43.75%, #104 nationally, #13 in the ACC
Syracuse: 25%, #7 nationally, #3 in the ACC

Pass Defense Yards/ATT (tempo free)
Pitt: 9.7, # nationally, #14 in the ACC
Syracuse: 7.0, #61 nationally, #7 in the ACC

Pass Defense Competion % (tempo free)
Pitt: 57.4%, #60 nationally, #9 in the ACC
Syracuse: 55.4%, #39 nationally, #6 in the ACC

Passing Yards per Game allowed
Pitt: 263.4, #107 nationally, #13 in the ACC
Syracuse: 225.6, #63 nationally, #10 in the ACC

Rush Yards per Attempt allowed (tempo free)
Pitt: 4.86, #104 nationally, #12 in the ACC
Syracuse: 3.63, #48 nationally, #10 in the ACC


Rushing Yards per Game allowed
Pitt: 170, #85 nationally, #12 in the ACC
Syracuse: 132, #48 nationally, #10 in the ACC

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MISCELLANEOUS

Turnover Margin
Pitt: 0.60, #32 nationally, #6 in the ACC
Syracuse: -0.20, #77 nationally, #10 in the ACC

S&P+ Special Teams
Pitt: #95
Syracuse: #12

 

[orangepassion]

What I am most astounded by is they actually run the ball worse than us. I didn't know it was possible.

 

[TheCusian]

What I am most astounded by is they actually run the ball worse than us. I didn't know it was possible.

Their stats look like ours from the Shafer years...

 

[upperdeck]

we avg 100 yds and 10 pts more and allow almost 100 yds and 10 pts less..

why did people think we would underdogs other than recent past history is bad

 

[TheCusian]

we avg 100 yds and 10 pts more and allow almost 100 yds and 10 pts less..

why did people think we would underdogs other than recent past history is bad

The only difference is that they’ve played a harder schedule - but that doesn’t account for all that. They really are not good

 

[Entropic]

I am still blown away by our defense on 3rd down. I feel like that has historically been one of those things we were awful at... like since the early 2000s.

 

[TheCusian]

I am still blown away by our defense on 3rd down. I feel like that has historically been one of those things we were awful at... like since the early 2000s.

Yeah - nationally #7 is nothing to sneeze at. I think this D has shown that it can stop teams - the 2nd half vs NC State was pretty amazing, given the 1st half.

 

[upperdeck]

the D has had a solid half of football almost every game this year.

really LSU was a good first half and one gimme TD, then a good 2nd half and a late TD
NC st great 2nd half
ccsu great game
MTSU one drive the first half
cmu shut them down the 2nd half.

I think the way CFootball is this half anytime you hold a team to 10 pts in a half you have done your job on D.

The offense hasnt played a full game yet and is scoring 30 a game. thats a strange thing to say as is the D playing pretty well and allowing 35 and 33 the last 2 weeks. if the offense was getting closer to 40 the D would look even better as this style is really a D designed to play with the lead not from behind.. Under 10 a half is not getting it done.

 

[cuse309]

We had similar numbers on defense last year, to what Pitt has this year. I'm sure Pitts numbers on defense, were similar to what they are this year as well. While we're far from the 85 bears defense, those defensive rankings show a vast improvement from where we were last year. Funny how all the " Scrap the Tampa 2" talk has been non existent this year. Give the defense another recruiting class or two to add the right pieces, and more familiarity with the defense, and 2 years from now, we could have a top 40 defense and top 25 offense. That's when things get exciting.

 

[SUFaninNJ]

Thank you. I like my statistics tempo free.

 

[TheCusian]

Thank you. I like my statistics tempo free.

In all honesty - you need both to see some stuff. If our Yards per Game are at 460 (#34 nationally) and Yards per Play are sitting at 5.41 (#88 nationally) - you can see the offenses latent improvement. If we can improve efficiency and knock that YPP up by a yard?

<whistles> Damn.