Cusefannotindc
2nd String
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- Nov 17, 2011
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Wrong. Each event is an independent event. Every time there is a 1/100 chance of it happening. It likely will never happen at a 1% probability. Your methodology would mean that flipping a coin always alternates between heads and tails, because each is a 50% probability. Probability isn’t a punch card where you keep punching out the 99 losers until the 100th one hits.
you are assuming the odds of it happening in 100 games is 1%, but the odds would be 1% in each game. In a 100 game set you would expect to have it happen at least 1 times 63% of the time.