Storylines for Cuse hoops season

[billsin01]

Here's how I see the most intriguing and important subplots that will define this season:

KJ's and Scoop's legacy
I find much of the debate over Scoop and KJ to be somewhat nonsensical. Yes, each player is flawed. No, they haven't won a championship. Yes, they've had maddening moments. But they've also been integral parts of two teams that have won 57 games the last two years and are poised -- even in a worst-case scenario -- to head up a team that wins at least 25 this year. That would be unparalleled success for a three-year career, IMO. But, I don't want to argue that here. The point is, a good senior season often changes the perception fans have of you. We all love Red Autry but forget that his first two years were exceedingly uneven. Demetris Nichols. John Wallace. Jason Hart. Damone Brown. Z Sims. Allen Griffin. The list goes on and on. The question is can these two play well enough for this to be a top 10 team with a chance to do some damage in the postseason? I think so. I also hope so b/c if I were Scoop, I’d love to have a big year, push this team to the final 4 then come back to this board and give a big “**** you” to all the posters comparing him to Josh Wright and suggesting we’d be better off without him.

How does this team fit together?
We’re all well aware of the talent on this roster but anyone who’s followed Cuse hoops knows talent can be fool’s gold. The JB teams that truly thrive are the ones that truly fit together. This team has a lot of redundant talent – BT, Waiters and MCW are all talented guards but none feels like a complete SG ready to make a run at All-Big East; Melo/Keita/Xmas are about as talented a group of bigs as we’ve had in a long time, but none have shown ready to produce much scoring or, for that matter, even log more than 20 mpg as of yet; everyone loves (or should love) KJ and CJ, but they are essentially very similar players who will be on the floor together often simply b/c they may be our two best players. But how does this team actually fit? I think the best description was Bees or IB or someone who suggested that this team is loaded 1-12 but pretty beatable 1-7. I tend to agree and worry that the odds of this team reaching it’s very high ceiling (30+ wins, final four) are extremely slim.

Tempo, Tempo, Tempo
I think a big reason people were so disappointed in Scoop last season was because this offense as a whole came to a grinding halt at times and Scoop – for better or for worse – was our best option to create a shot. So instead of scoring 81 a game on 51.6% shooting – due in large part to all the easy transition baskets and big-time low-post threat of Arinze – we wound up scoring 73 on 47% shooting. Not terrible, but not pretty. Scoop, KJ, BT and Dion are all at their best – like most players – in the open court. This team’s ability to create turnovers and hold their own on the glass is going to be extremely important b/c I’m not sure this team is any better (or even as good) in the half-court as last year’s bunch.

Rak/Melo/BMK – cool names, but what kind of game?
I’m thrilled to hear the great reports on Melo, but remain only cautiously optimistic simply because he has soooooooo far to go to even get to a respectable starting center’s level production-wise. If I’m wrong, I’m cool with it, but I’d still be surprised to see him do more than maybe 7 ppg, 5 rpg and 25 mpg. BMK, if he can be aggressive, I really like and think we could see a bit of him at the 4 if Melo truly does emerge as a monster. Rak has the athleticism, but again, he’s a long ways away offensively and young big men are rarely really advanced defensively, so I’ll wait and see.

Will JB tinker with lineups at all?
I am usually the first person to point out that JB has a system and he generally sticks to it, almost no matter what. But I really do wonder if this team is different in the sense that it’s best players tend to play the same position. If BT and Dion really have come a long way, then JB could find himself in a spot where his five best players are two small forwards and three guards. Is there a chance he goes with a three guard lineup at times? What about Southerland if BMK/MElo and Xmas struggle? Do we use Southerland a bit at the 4 to open things up inside for the guards and KJ/CJ? I’m really curious to see how this plays out.

My prediction: I think this team struggles a bit. I tend to think they’ll be very dangerous next year with CJ comfortably at the three, Xmas and BMK along with Coleman (and Melo?) as the bigs and an experienced backcourt of MCW/BT and perhaps Waiters. Just feel like that group fits together well. But for this season I’m not so sure. I still see 25+ wins but I’d be surprised if we do more than maybe 27/28 wins and a sweet 16.

 

[Dick_in_MI]

You make some good points.

One thing...you state "If BT and Dion really have come a long way, then JB could find himself in a spot where his five best players are two small forwards and three guards. Is there a chance he goes with a three guard lineup at times?"

You have to define "best players". Having 3 solid guards does not necessarily mean that one of them is a better option at the 3 than KJ or CJ. Last time I looked, none of them are great rebounders and all would likely get eaten alive defensively at the 3, even in the zone.

They might be better scorers, they might be better ball handlers, but they might not be the best option to have on the court as frontcourt players

 

[cusetown1]

This team will make it past the sweet 16. I have a feeling many people will be pleasantly surprised if all they are expecting is a sweet 16.

 

[SoBristol]

Good post. Interesting.
The key point for me is we have depth, more than all-league talent. You made this point by saying we are beatable 1-7, even though we are better than ever 8 to 12. In fact, it is usually your top 3 guys who get you over the top (UConn being the most recent example). In the 2009-10 run, it was Wes, AO and Andy -- often better than any 3 on the other teams. Last year it was more like 4 -- the core 4 of Rick, Scoop, KJ and Triche -- all about the same in terms of value, with Rick the standout on the defensive boards.
If you are looking for Scoop, Triche or KJ to have break-out years and lead this team to the promised land, you might be disappointed. But the centers are much improved. Melo has lost the weight; his fitness level is way better; and he is gaining confidence. Baye is a much better rebounder at this stage than people realize.
As for the 1-7 (or in fact, 8), we are going to be stronger than most teams in our 6, 7 and 8 positions. Most teams won't have reserves as good as Baye, CJ or Dion and MCW would get playing time for the majority ot teams we will face.
Bottom line -- JB's challenge is to coax more out of Scoop, Triche and KJ, as the centers become a strength; or let the kids take some of their time. Not an easy fit with what JB does in the normal year.

 

[NovaOrange]

I really feel CJ when it's all said and done this year will be the guy who steps up big time when we need a big shot. I am really excited to see him play big minutes. That three ball looks much improved and I think we all can agree his mid range and finishing around the basket skills of his game are very impressive.

 

[bevosu]

Good post billsin01. I pretty much agree with everything you said.

If we can't get some decent outside shooting I'm not nearly as optimistic as most of the posters on the BB board. If we can hit from outside at a respectable rate this team will be very good. There were too many times last year, even with the Rick option, where our offense came to a standstill.

 

[billsin01]

If you are looking for Scoop, Triche or KJ to have break-out years and lead this team to the promised land, you might be disappointed.

I tend to agree, though I'd suggest that it's not necessarily as if any of the three have to have breakout seasons as long as they all take a tangible step forward. I mean, it's easy to forget but KJ, apparently playing injured, went for 14 ppg/5 rpg on 46/71/37 shooting, with 1.5 steals p/g just for good measure. Scoop basically led the BE in assists (5.9) and had a 2:1 assist/TO ratio while scoring 12.5 ppg on 42/66/36 shooting.

Those are both basically pretty good years. If they improve even just slightly on those numbers -- lets say KJ averages 16.5 on basically the same shooting percentages and adds closer to 7 rpg and Scoop ups his FT shooting while cutting his TOs from 2.9 p/g to 2.5 -- you've got yourself a pair of All-Big East candidates.

Triche is a little different in that he has plenty of room to improve in terms of being a really productive offensive performer (could improve in terms of creating for others, shooting coming off screens, getting to the bucket, etc) but if he only averages a point or two more per game but does it more efficiently, he too will be significantly improved. I'm not sure he's much more than a role player, but I say that as someone who didn't stop talking about josh pace for four years and loved the way Duany contributed to the national championship team.

 

[billsin01]

You have to define "best players". Having 3 solid guards does not necessarily mean that one of them is a better option at the 3 than KJ or CJ. Last time I looked, none of them are great rebounders and all would likely get eaten alive defensively at the 3, even in the zone.

They might be better scorers, they might be better ball handlers, but they might not be the best option to have on the court as frontcourt players

Absolutely. I agree. I think the Southerland scenario is more likely, but I guess what I meant to imply was simply that if Waiters turned into a star offensively and Triche was having a big year, would JB try to squeeze a few minutes a game out of Triche on the wing with KJ at the 4 and Baye or whomever at the 5? I doubt it, but it's an interesting scenario if the reports on Triche and Waiters prove to be more truth than fiction.

 

[IthacaMatt]

This team will make it past the sweet 16. I have a feeling many people will be pleasantly surprised if all they are expecting is a sweet 16.

Every year the expectation is the Sweet 16 and most years we don't make it.

 

[Cuseology]

We are preseason top 5. The expectation is better than a sweet 16 loss. It is still early and we still have a lot to learn about this team both individually and collectively but i cant imagine that there are many expecting only a sweet 16.

 

[fanfanclubclub]

My prediction: I think this team struggles a bit. I tend to think they’ll be very dangerous next year with CJ comfortably at the three, Xmas and BMK along with Coleman (and Melo?) as the bigs and an experienced backcourt of MCW/BT and perhaps Waiters. Just feel like that group fits together well. But for this season I’m not so sure. I still see 25+ wins but I’d be surprised if we do more than maybe 27/28 wins and a sweet 16.

Interesting post, but I disagree with most of what you said.

This Cuse team is top heavy. We have alpha dogs: Fab, KJ, CJ, Triche. We have solid role players: BMK, XMas, Scoop. And we have two wild cards in Waiters and MCW who are not ready to star, but will be sooner than later. That's a championship caliber 8.5, led by our four star players: a star 5 (Melo), two star wings (KJ and CJ), and a star, heady, team-first, defensively solid, guard (BT). I very much disagree with your prediction that this team will struggle to meet expectations.

The Cuse just needs to make sure our alpha dogs are getting the ball and dominating the action. We cannot put too many of our eggs in the Scoop, Waiters or MCW baskets, until they find efficient roles within the framework of team play.

Miscasting a good role player as an alpha dog can ruin an otherwise championship caliber team. Obviously, I am mostly talking about Scoop, but as talented as MCW and Waiters are, the same would be true for them if they were currently projected to start at point. The scrimmage was extremely encouraging in this regard: Scoop's second half was all team play, very much embracing the role we need him to play, and similarly it looks like BT's assertiveness is here to stay.

IMO, Fab is going to blow away your projections (7 points, 5 rebounds). He gets above the rim so easily. He is a star, and his emergence obviously changes our team in huge ways.

Regarding a few other points you raised: I don't think we'll see a 3 guard lineup or Southerland once BE play starts.

 

[SoBristol]

I tend to agree, though I'd suggest that it's not necessarily as if any of the three have to have breakout seasons as long as they all take a tangible step forward. I mean, it's easy to forget but KJ, apparently playing injured, went for 14 ppg/5 rpg on 46/71/37 shooting, with 1.5 steals p/g just for good measure. Scoop basically led the BE in assists (5.9) and had a 2:1 assist/TO ratio while scoring 12.5 ppg on 42/66/36 shooting.

Those are both basically pretty good years. If they improve even just slightly on those numbers -- lets say KJ averages 16.5 on basically the same shooting percentages and adds closer to 7 rpg and Scoop ups his FT shooting while cutting his TOs from 2.9 p/g to 2.5 -- you've got yourself a pair of All-Big East candidates.

Triche is a little different in that he has plenty of room to improve in terms of being a really productive offensive performer (could improve in terms of creating for others, shooting coming off screens, getting to the bucket, etc) but if he only averages a point or two more per game but does it more efficiently, he too will be significantly improved. I'm not sure he's much more than a role player, but I say that as someone who didn't stop talking about josh pace for four years and loved the way Duany contributed to the national championship team.

I think we are in raging agreement about most of these points -- these three were "pretty good" last year, and Scoop is one of the better PGs. I don't see a lot of improvement coming from these quarters, though. KJ is still having knee issues -- didn't show any new dimension to his game. You can read a lot about Triche's possible improvement (shooting and fitness; scored big in grade B international play), but it didn't show. Granted, it was only one horrible outing in a meaningless exhibition, but I was looking for a new dimension in Triche's play and didn't see any other than he was aggressive. I noticed that CJ has improved, and (while I know others disagree) Dion showed a few good signs. And, there is your issue: how far do you go with 5 "pretty good" perimeter guys? Maybe it comes down to how much improvement you get from the centers and Rak.

 

[cusetown1]

Interesting post, but I disagree with most of what you said.

This Cuse team is top heavy. We have alpha dogs: Fab, KJ, CJ, Triche. We have solid role players: BMK, XMas, Scoop. And we have two wild cards in Waiters and MCW who are not ready to star, but will be sooner than later. That's a championship caliber 8.5, led by our four star players: a star 5 (Melo), two star wings (KJ and CJ), and a star, heady, team-first, defensively solid, guard (BT). I very much disagree with your prediction that this team will struggle to meet expectations.

The Cuse just needs to make sure our alpha dogs are getting the ball and dominating the action. We cannot put too many of our eggs in the Scoop, Waiters or MCW baskets, until they find efficient roles within the framework of team play.

Miscasting a good role player as an alpha dog can ruin an otherwise championship caliber team. Obviously, I am mostly talking about Scoop, but as talented as MCW and Waiters are, the same would be true for them if they were currently projected to start at point. The scrimmage was extremely encouraging in this regard: Scoop's second half was all team play, very much embracing the role we need him to play, and similarly it looks like BT's assertiveness is here to stay.

IMO, Fab is going to blow away your projections (7 points, 5 rebounds). He gets above the rim so easily. He is a star, and his emergence obviously changes our team in huge ways.

Regarding a few other points you raised: I don't think we'll see a 3 guard lineup or Southerland once BE play starts.

Totally agree on that Fab comment.

 

[arbitragegls]

Believe this team has an extraordinary upside.
Melo may be 1st or 2nd team BE...Scoop, if he plays smart and reduces dumb TOs will be top PG; BT if he stays assertive and hits 45% of all shots will be terrific...Keita and Christmas will provide just enough to help the team...

The 6 biggest questions for me are:
1. Is KJ healthy both physically and mentally...I was worried when he was taken down on a drive and glazed the post...he did not look bouncy or aggressive to me like he was two years ago...
2. Can Waiters forget the ME in team and remember there is no I either...he has the tools...will he play within the team concept...did not see that at the exhibition and frankly was a bit put off at MM when he ran onto court waving he won the dunk contest before it was over...
3. Will CJ perform at high level if he comes off of bench...believe he gets lots of minutes but will his psyche allow him to do so...
4. Will JB allow himself to go more than 7.5 deep...he has the depth...will he play the cards right...choose right and allow the pieces to determine who fits where
5. What happens minute wise to MCW and Cooney...both very good...young but show flashes of being all stars...going to be interesting how JB brings them along--I presume 3-5 minutes per game each...
6. Does everyone want everyone else to be successful...I hope so...still have doubts about Waiters--Scoop I believe will pass to Triche...do we have the chemistry and will to win regardless who scores the points

We are litteraly two deep at every position...this is strong if we play it right and FIND the one or two players to go to in critical situations...who steps up and frankly I do not believe it is Scoop...but he sure can facilitate it to happen!

 

[billsin01]

That's a championship caliber 8.5, led by our four star players: a star 5 (Melo), two star wings (KJ and CJ), and a star, heady, team-first, defensively solid, guard (BT). I very much disagree with your prediction that this team will struggle to meet expectations.

IMO, Fab is going to blow away your projections (7 points, 5 rebounds). He gets above the rim so easily. He is a star, and his emergence obviously changes our team in huge ways.

I guess we see this team a bit differently but I think most of it hinges on how we define "star." I'm OK with projecting that a player will improve or even significantly improve, but I'm not sure how you're predicting (or defining) that we will somehow have four "stars" in the starting lineup? And Scoop -- the only one who was among the league leaders in any categories last year -- isn't one of them?

I think Triche is a nice player and I like him a lot, but I can't see how you'd predict a massive breakout from him this year. I mean, he could improve quite a bit and still not really be a star. The kid averaged less than three assists per game and 11 ppg on 41% shooting -- fine, but a looooooong way from being a star.

And speaking of being a LOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNGGGGGG way from being a star, Melo couldn't stay on the floor for 4 minutes at times last year. I agree that KJ and CJ have star potential but I wonder if KJ is healthy and ready to take that leap and I wonder if CJ will be a start in 2012-13 instead of 2011-12.

But I agree, if those guys all take huge steps forward than my expectations will much bigger. (though I'd also argue that people underrate how difficult it is to win 27 or 28 games in the Big East and get to the sweet 16).

 

[billsin01]

Maybe it comes down to how much improvement you get from the centers and Rak.

Yeah, and that's why I'm a little leery. This team could really use a post-threat when it's forced to play in the half-court and i just don't know that I have much faith in any of these three to be that threat. The ideal would be if KJ added a bit of a post game to his game, but I don't think we'll see that.

 

[armory]

Re: Kris Joseph : I feel like this year will make or break his 'legacy' as either a player who improved towards his potential, or a player who never met it. After the vast improvement from his Freshman to Sophomore seasons Joseph has regressed, yet he continues to be talked about amongst the top college basketball players. He constantly gets evaluated on what he can do but rarely for what he does do. This isn't a new phenomenon, it happens all the time in college sports... but that all stops your Senior year. It's now or never and nobody will value potential anymore, here or afterwards. He can't just put his game on cruise control like he did last year.

I just hope that his knees aren't bad enough to prevent him from doing what he wants to do, and that being a Senior doesn't prevent him from admitting when he can't. His future rides on this season and our season may ride on him ... but he may never be healthy, which is a scary possibility both he and the fans all need to be prepared for.

 

[fanfanclubclub]

I guess we see this team a bit differently but I think most of it hinges on how we define "star."

Yeah I hear ya, but one way to take a close look at what differentiates a good role player from a "star" is to use advanced metrics.

KJO, Triche, and Fair all have "star level" advanced metrics on offense. Fair and Triche have star level advaned metrics on defense.

Scoop has generally mediocre advanced metrics, with a 'usage rate' that is way too high for his efficiency.

For example, Scoop fans love to say that he led the BE in assists (he actually came in second in assists per game, but that's kinda a petty detail) and they also love to cite his A/TO ratio, but Scoop's pure point rating was a mediocre 3.15. Scoop's pure point rating is much lower than his assist numbers would suggest, because Scoop's good A/TO ratio was overwhelmed by his lousy points-per-shot. Scoop's low Assist/field goal attempt ratio (0.56) is what keeps him from being a top tier floor general.

And that basically cuts right to the heart of the Scoop debate: his fans like the A/TO ratio, his detractors dislike his points per shot. Advanced metrics like PPR and ORtg demonstrate, empirically, that the gunning outweighs the assists.

(As an interesting aside, Waiters put up "star level" advanced metrics on offense last year because he was so good at drawing FTs and making them. His defensive metrics were poor, and his minutes were low: but his usage rates were reasonably high. I couldn't argue with someone who put Waiters in the "star" category, especially since he is so obviously well suited with the physical skills to become a great defender. I personally list Waiters as a wild card because of his approach and his undeveloped defense)

Similarly, many basketball scouts love the physical attributes, skill sets, attitude and fundamentals regarding KJO, CJ, and Triche. Basketball geniuses like Jay Bilas wax poetic about Triche, while KJO and CJ are periodically projected as first round picks. Scoop enjoys nothing close to this level of excitement among scouts, partly because his physical build doesn't project well in an NBA defense, and partly because he has poor shot selection and pure point ratings.

Even without advanced metrics, it is pretty easy to show through conventional "basketball card" statistics that CJ and KJO fit the profile of emerging stars, whereas Scoop fits the profile of a high-volume, low-efficiency lead guard.

By throwing Triche in with the "stars," I am inviting scrutiny, I know. But his advanced metrics are excellent, and if you adjust his stats for the level of competition, he has a clear upward trajectory and an excellent track record.

Also, Melo is a big star. I didn't expect it, I barely believed it when I saw it, but he has arrived. fiat accompli. There is no "we'll see." He would be a first rounder today.

 

[billsin01]

Yeah I hear ya, but one way to take a close look at what differentiates a good role player from a "star" is to use advanced metrics.

Fine, I'll bite. I tend to shy away from advanced metrics b/c I'm lazy and not terribly interested but where can I find an explanation of the stat ratings used at Kenpom?

What I will say is that the basketball card numbers are a pretty good way of defining a player when put into context. I don't think it's quite like baseball where you are dealing with so much luck and so many different pitchers, and park factors etc.

 

[fanfanclubclub]

Fine, I'll bite. I tend to shy away from advanced metrics b/c I'm lazy and not terribly interested but where can I find an explanation of the stat ratings used at Kenpom?

What I will say is that the basketball card numbers are a pretty good way of defining a player when put into context. I don't think it's quite like baseball where you are dealing with so much luck and so many different pitchers, and park factors etc.

Sure, the site itself provides a so-so explanation.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/stats_explained/

You'll have to dig through the blogs and Ken Pom archives to find the linear regressions showing how well 'the four factors' and other advance metrics correlate with wins on the aggregate. The correlations are fairly impressive: but obviously the stats are far from gospel truth.

 

[Knicks411]

This Cuse team is top heavy. We have alpha dogs: Fab, KJ, CJ, Triche. We have solid role players: BMK, XMas, Scoop. And we have two wild cards in Waiters and MCW who are not ready to star, but will be sooner than later. That's a championship caliber 8.5, led by our four star players: a star 5 (Melo), two star wings (KJ and CJ), and a star, heady, team-first, defensively solid, guard (BT). I very much disagree with your prediction that this team will struggle to meet expectations.

Only one of those 4 has played at anything really close to a star level.

I've got high hopes for Fab, and CJ was a frosh and looked impressive, but how is Triche a star? I'll give you he's a solid defender, but that doesn't make a star. Brandon is much more of a role player to me.

 

[fanfanclubclub]

After the vast improvement from his Freshman to Sophomore seasons Joseph has regressed, yet he continues to be talked about amongst the top college basketball players.

That is not true at all. KJO continued to improve from his soph to junior year. He went from being a lousy perimeter shooter to being a great perimeter shooter: one of the best shooting wings in the country. Every type of statistic shows that KJO became a great perimeter shooter: he shot 37% from downtown. His shot is excellent mechanically, and his range is deep.

There is a very simple explanation as to why so many Cuse posters incorrectly think that KJO regressed last year: he didn't look as flashy. Sizzle sells, and sizzle influences hype moreso than responsible empiricism. KJO had a bunch of highlight reel dunks in 09-10, especially when he was under the radar at the beginning of the season. Last season, KJO had way fewer highlight dunks. That, plus his knees, gave people the impression that KJO regressed, even though his offensive efficiency and true shooting percentage stayed at the same excellent rates while his usage and minutes increased and his defense improved.

KJO was never the unstoppable slasher that he appeared to be when no one was guarding him early in 09-10 campaign, but he is a great wing scorer with a money shot.

 

[realorange]

That is not true at all. KJO continued to improve from his soph to junior year. He went from being a lousy perimeter shooter to being a great perimeter shooter: one of the best shooting wings in the country. Every type of statistic shows that KJO became a great perimeter shooter: he shot 37% from downtown. His shot is excellent mechanically, and his range is deep.

There is a very simple explanation as to why so many Cuse posters incorrectly think that KJO regressed last year: he didn't look as flashy. Sizzle sells, and sizzle influences hype moreso than responsible empiricism. KJO had a bunch of highlight reel dunks in 09-10, especially when he was under the radar at the beginning of the season. Last season, KJO had way fewer highlight dunks. That, plus his knees, gave people the impression that KJO regressed, even though his offensive efficiency and true shooting percentage stayed at the same excellent rates while his usage and minutes increased and his defense improved.

KJO was never the unstoppable slasher that he appeared to be when no one was guarding him early in 09-10 campaign, but he is a great wing scorer with a money shot.[/quote]

Problem last year was that he thought was the unstoppable slasher!