SU and the USA Today Coaches Poll

[Quazzum69]

The topic of preseason rankings has arisen once again and many think the 2013-2014 team is underestimated. I did a quick review of some of the top teams (teams that have consistently been in the top 25 for the past few decades - there's not many of them) on the coaches poll to see which teams, if any, are consistently overestimated, underestimated or very close to the preseason ranking.

Basically, I just compared the team's preseason Coaches Poll rank to the final rank (pre-tourney). If the team's final rank is 6 places or more lower than the pre-season rank, they were categorized as "overestimated." If the final rank was 6 places or higher than preseason, they were "underestimated." Within five spots I considered pretty accurate. Going into the top 25 from unranked was considered underestimated and going unranked from the top 25 was considered overestimated. The years were 1995-1996 to 2012-2013.

Duke:
over (1), within 5 (14), under (3)
UNC:
over (3), within 5 (13), under (2)
SU:
over (4), within 5 (11), under (3)
Kansas:
over (4), wthin 5 (11), under (3)
Kentucky:
over (5), within 5 (11), under (2)
Michigan State:
over (7), within 5 (9), under (2)
UConn:
over (7), within 5 (7), under (4)

Obviously, this says nothing about the actual ranks or tournament performance. Injuries or suspensions are not considered either or any information about midseason ranks. For SU, the 2012-2013 season would be considered overestimated - preseason ranked 9 but the final poll was 16 but we all know how the season turned out.

SU has went from unranked preseason to final ranked twice thrice (1995-1996 UR to #15, 2002-2003 UR to #13, 2009-2010 UR to #4) and went from ranked preseason to unranked by season's end twice (1996-1997 #12 to UR, 2006-2007 #20 to UR). Just once have they never been placed in either preseason or final poll. SU's raw average preseason rank (excluding unranked) is 15 and their final average rank is also 15. Overall, pretty accurate.

Michigan State probably is the most overestimated of all the teams, probably due to Izzo's over-performance in the tournaments. They have fallen out of the preseason top 25 four times, 01'-02', 02'-03', 03'-04' and 10'-11' with the initial ranks of 15, 9, 3, and 2, respectively. UConn has fallen out four times (initial ranks of 4, 12, 18 and 14), Kentucky four times (3, 20, 22, and 9), North Carolina three times (11, 6 and 6). Kansas and Duke have never fallen out of the preseason top 25.

 

[Cheriehoop]

Why did I think we weren't ranked in the preseason in the National Championship year 2002-2003, but ended up 1st of course in the post season?

 

[Cheriehoop]

Why did I think we weren't ranked in the preseason in the National Championship year 2002-2003, but ended up 1st of course in the post season?

 

[orange2win]

Why did I think we weren't ranked in the preseason in the National Championship year 2002-2003, but ended up 1st of course in the post season?

The reason you think it is because you are correct.

SU was unranked preseason 2002-03 and remained unranked through week 9. They never cracked the top 10 all year and were ranked #13 in the last poll. As you would expect, in the post season poll they were bounced to #1

 

[orange79]

You're right Cherie. If you look closely, the caption on the SI cover reads "Orangemen: Unranked to #1"

 

[AirForceOrange]

The topic of preseason rankings has arisen once again and many think the 2013-2014 team is underestimated. I did a quick review of some of the top teams (teams that have consistently been in the top 25 for the past few decades - there's not many of them) on the coaches poll to see which teams, if any, are consistently overestimated, underestimated or very close to the preseason ranking.

Basically, I just compared the team's preseason Coaches Poll rank to the final rank (pre-tourney). If the team's final rank is 6 places or more lower than the pre-season rank, they were categorized as "overestimated." If the final rank was 6 places or higher than preseason, they were "underestimated." Within five spots I considered pretty accurate. Going into the top 25 from unranked was considered underestimated and going unranked from the top 25 was considered overestimated. The years were 1995-1996 to 2012-2013.

Duke:
over (1), within 5 (14), under (3)
UNC:
over (3), within 5 (13), under (2)
SU:
over (4), within 5 (11), under (3)
Kansas:
over (4), wthin 5 (11), under (3)
Kentucky:
over (5), within 5 (11), under (2)
Michigan State:
over (7), within 5 (9), under (2)
UConn:
over (7), within 5 (7), under (4)

Obviously, this says nothing about the actual ranks or tournament performance. Injuries or suspensions are not considered either or any information about midseason ranks. For SU, the 2012-2013 season would be considered overestimated - preseason ranked 9 but the final poll was 16 but we all know how the season turned out.

SU has went from unranked preseason to final ranked twice (1995-1996 UR to #15, 2009-2010 UR to #4) and went from ranked preseason to unranked by season's end twice (1996-1997 #12 to UR, 2006-2007 #20 to UR). Just once have they never been placed in either preseason or final poll. SU's raw average preseason rank (excluding unranked) is 15 and their final average rank is also 15. Overall, pretty accurate.

Michigan State probably is the most overestimated of all the teams, probably due to Izzo's over-performance in the tournaments. They have fallen out of the preseason top 25 four times, 01'-02', 02'-03', 03'-04' and 10'-11' with the initial ranks of 15, 9, 3, and 2, respectively. UConn has fallen out four times (initial ranks of 4, 12, 18 and 14), Kentucky four times (3, 20, 22, and 9), North Carolina three times (11, 6 and 6). Kansas and Duke have never fallen out of the preseason top 25.

Thank you for researching this and proving the Marshin Theory of .

 

[cusetown1]

Why did I think we weren't ranked in the preseason in the National Championship year 2002-2003, but ended up 1st of course in the post season?

You can say that again.

 

[longtimefan]

The topic of preseason rankings has arisen once again and many think the 2013-2014 team is underestimated. I did a quick review of some of the top teams (teams that have consistently been in the top 25 for the past few decades - there's not many of them) on the coaches poll to see which teams, if any, are consistently overestimated, underestimated or very close to the preseason ranking.

Basically, I just compared the team's preseason Coaches Poll rank to the final rank (pre-tourney). If the team's final rank is 6 places or more lower than the pre-season rank, they were categorized as "overestimated." If the final rank was 6 places or higher than preseason, they were "underestimated." Within five spots I considered pretty accurate. Going into the top 25 from unranked was considered underestimated and going unranked from the top 25 was considered overestimated. The years were 1995-1996 to 2012-2013.

Duke:
over (1), within 5 (14), under (3)
UNC:
over (3), within 5 (13), under (2)
SU:
over (4), within 5 (11), under (3)
Kansas:
over (4), wthin 5 (11), under (3)
Kentucky:
over (5), within 5 (11), under (2)
Michigan State:
over (7), within 5 (9), under (2)
UConn:
over (7), within 5 (7), under (4)

Obviously, this says nothing about the actual ranks or tournament performance. Injuries or suspensions are not considered either or any information about midseason ranks. For SU, the 2012-2013 season would be considered overestimated - preseason ranked 9 but the final poll was 16 but we all know how the season turned out.

SU has went from unranked preseason to final ranked twice (1995-1996 UR to #15, 2009-2010 UR to #4) and went from ranked preseason to unranked by season's end twice (1996-1997 #12 to UR, 2006-2007 #20 to UR). Just once have they never been placed in either preseason or final poll. SU's raw average preseason rank (excluding unranked) is 15 and their final average rank is also 15. Overall, pretty accurate.

Michigan State probably is the most overestimated of all the teams, probably due to Izzo's over-performance in the tournaments. They have fallen out of the preseason top 25 four times, 01'-02', 02'-03', 03'-04' and 10'-11' with the initial ranks of 15, 9, 3, and 2, respectively. UConn has fallen out four times (initial ranks of 4, 12, 18 and 14), Kentucky four times (3, 20, 22, and 9), North Carolina three times (11, 6 and 6). Kansas and Duke have never fallen out of the preseason top 25.

I'm guessing that you used the last regular-season poll to come up with your "final" ranking; because, of course, SU ended up #3 this past season after the tournaments were played.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

Quaz - I appreciate the research. I just wonder why you didn't use the polls after the tourney? You use preseason polls, it would seem natural to compare them to post-season polls.

It is difficult to use this data as any type of measure when it is not including such an important influence on the evaluating the success of a season.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Quaz - I appreciate the research. I just wonder why you didn't use the polls after the tourney? You use preseason polls, it would seem natural to compare them to post-season polls.

It is difficult to use this data as any type of measure when it is not including such an important influence on the evaluating the success of a season.

I think it was the right choice, because the final poll is so heavily influenced by a single elimination tournament. The last poll of the regular season is more reflective of the regular season journey.

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[Quazzum69]

Quaz - I appreciate the research. I just wonder why you didn't use the polls after the tourney? You use preseason polls, it would seem natural to compare them to post-season polls.

It is difficult to use this data as any type of measure when it is not including such an important influence on the evaluating the success of a season.

I agree that tournament performance should be accounted for, but who can predict that? Also, the site that I used as a source didn't have post-tournament polls. I just wanted to explore how accurate the preseason poll was at predicting the overall success of the season.
Actually, like most paranoid, insecure SU basketball fans, I just wanted to see if SU was consistently underrated but that's really not the case.

 

[longtimefan]

I think it was the right choice, because the final poll is so heavily influenced by a single elimination tournament. The last poll of the regular season is more reflective of the regular season journey.

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And yet, the consensus is that performance in the tournament is the true indicator of the success of a season.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

And yet, the consensus is that performance in the tournament is the true indicator of the success of a season.

I would agree that a lot of people make that claim, but I would not agree that it makes a consensus.

Personally, I feel more comfortable underestimating the results of a single elimination tourney than I do overestimating them, and I think a lot of people do the opposite.

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