dinosaurbbq
2nd String
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First, here's why Andre Williams wins that Heisman:
The most trusted poll for figuring out where Heisman voters' heads are at currently shows:
1. Jameis Winston
2. Andre Williams
3. AJ McCarron
4. Jordan Lynch
5. Johnny Manziel
6. Marcus Mariota
http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsport...s-jumps-to-second-in-heismanpundit-staw-poll/
This poll last year got the top 5 finishers right in order and two years ago had the top 7 right in order.
Who is out of the running on this list? At least #4-6.
Manziel has fallen further back due to the bad loss to LSU. His numbers looked awful at 16 of 41 for 225 yards and 2 INTs with 54 rushing yards. LSU's D is damn good. aTm hasn't beaten a very good team this year, losing to LSU, Alabama and Auburn. Best win was either Vandy or Ole Miss. Manziel probably can't gain back the ground to win it. Plus, he's a dick.
Mariota is also out. He looked slightly (just slightly) better while getting killed by Arizona with a much worse D at 27 of 41 for 308 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs with 52 rushing yards. Add to that his concussion and that he is questionable for this weekend's game and he isn't able to make up much ground.
Jordan Lynch doesn't and won't get enough eyeballs to watch him to win. He'll play either Buffalo (most likely) or Bowling Green in Detroit in the MAC championship game 12/6. No one will watch. No one will care. No hope for him.
#3 AJ McCarron? No way. Of the 5 best major conference QBs, he's a distant last in most categories. JM is Manziel, BP is Petty, JW is Winston, MM is Mariota. Last in Pass efficiency rating, total offense, points per game, yards per game (100 less than Manziel), TDs.
CategoryJM (rank)BP JW MM AJM
Pass efficiency 189.6 (3)206.2 (1)195.6 (2)176.2 (4)162.2 (5)
Total offense392.4 (1)346.6 (2)308.3 (4)329.6 (3)221.8 (5)
Completion percentage73.0 (1)65.2 (4)70.9 (2)64.2 (5)67.8 (3)
Yards/completion14.4 (4)19.7 (1)15.9 (2)15.4 (3)12.6 (5)
Points/game23.4 (1)22.7 (2)18.6 (4)20.4 (3)12.6 (5)
Pass yds/game331.3 (2)332.4 (1)293.8 (3)281.9 (4)222.8 (5)
Pass TDs31 (1)24 (4)28 (2)25 (3)21 (5)
Completions/gm23 (1)16.9 (5)18.5 (2)18.3 (3)17.7 (4)
Eyeball test(2)(4)(3)(1)(5)
ChampionshipsN/A (5)Poss. (4)Yes (3)Yes (2)Yes (1)
TDs/INTs31/11 (4)24/1 (2)28/7 (3)25/0 (1)21/5 (5)
4Q wins1 (1)1 (1)N/A (3)N/A (3)N/A (3)
Team record8-2 (5)9-0 (1)10-0 (1)9-1 (4)10-0 (1)
Totals3132343952
Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/2013/11/22/5361369/ams-manziel-baylors-petty-get.html#storylink=cpy
There would be no rational way for Heisman voters to explain choosing AJ McCarron over the other top QBs. Championships are nice but they alone can't win you the Heisman. He's got a hot chick, too, but I'm guessing all of these guys have access to top talent, just with less twitter followers than McCarron's Webb.
Winston is ahead for now, but what happens if/when he gets charged? It would be hard to imagine the Heisman voters permitting him to win with that type of a potential (likely?) criminal charge. Of course, Cam Newton wasn't a choir boy, but this is a Felony. If Winston gets charged prior to the 12/9 Heisman vote deadline, he'll be left off so many ballots, he'll be a distant also ran. If he doesn't get charged by then, there is still likely enough of a cloud of an impending charge and a bunch of voters feeling that he is getting out of charges simply because Tallahassee is a crooked place and he is a great QB at FSU, that he gets left off a bunch of ballots and falls from the top spot.
That leaves -- Andre Williams. 2,073 yards on the season is where he is and that is a lot. He's run for 850 yards in the last 3 games, which is more than Jerome Smith has run for all year. Of course, BC has been riding him hard and his 320 carries, which is 30 more than anyone else, is almost twice as many carries as Jerome Smith has at 166. He has the 13th highest single season rushing yard total in NCAA history right now. He's got 2 more games in this game at SU and a bowl game to see how high he can go up the all-time season totals list.
The top 3 ever are Barry Sanders, who sits at 2,628, Kevin Smith at 2,567, and Marcus Allen at 2,427. Next is Troy Davis at 2,185 and Andre Williams, who is averaging 188 yards/game needs only 112 more yards in two games to finish ahead of him. Barry Sanders and Marcus Allen obviously won Heismans for those years. Kevin Smith and Troy Davis did not, because they were laboring in a mid-major conference at UCF and in a land just as barren of eyeballs at Iowa State, respectively. Kevin Smith, by the way, ran the ball 450 times to get that total while Troy Davis ran it 402 times, either of which is a heck of a lot of carries and more than Williams will carry it this year. Williams will end up in the top 4 for highest single season rushing totals in a season. He is on pace to finish with more than Marcus Allen.
More important, Andre William isn't a QB. Heisman voters won't have to explain why they voted for a QB other than Winston, Mariota or Manziel with worse numbers. They won't have to explain Winston not getting the award in the event he doesn't ever get charged. That is why Andre Williams will win the Heisman this year.
Now, on to shutting him down:
Shafer has to be telling his team over and over again this week that Andre Williams will win that Heisman and it is our job to shut him down and prove we are the best defense in the country. SU is great against the run. We are 30th in the country at 141 yards against/game including giving up only 109/game in our last 3 and giving up only 21 yards rushing to Pitt.
Shafer has to be gameplanning for nothing other than shutting down Andre Williams. No other rusher averages more than 25 yards/game for BC. BC has the 113th ranked passing yardage in NCAA football at 149 yards/game. Heck, SU's passing attack is higher ranked and gets more yards/game than that. BC QB Rettig is at 1636 yards on the season at 62% completions and a little over 1 TD/game. BC has only 1 receiver averaging more than 1 catch/game and only 1 receiver averaging more than 13 yards/game.
I think SU holds Andre Williams to under 100 yards rushing. With him at under 100, SU wins this game in a close one, 17-14. Yes, yes, that means I think a FG and 2 XP are likely.
Williams will then run wild in that bowl game for a little over 250 and end up just ahead of Marcus Allen at 2,430, 3rd all-time and he gets that Heisman despite SU shutting him down.
The most trusted poll for figuring out where Heisman voters' heads are at currently shows:
1. Jameis Winston
2. Andre Williams
3. AJ McCarron
4. Jordan Lynch
5. Johnny Manziel
6. Marcus Mariota
http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsport...s-jumps-to-second-in-heismanpundit-staw-poll/
This poll last year got the top 5 finishers right in order and two years ago had the top 7 right in order.
Who is out of the running on this list? At least #4-6.
Manziel has fallen further back due to the bad loss to LSU. His numbers looked awful at 16 of 41 for 225 yards and 2 INTs with 54 rushing yards. LSU's D is damn good. aTm hasn't beaten a very good team this year, losing to LSU, Alabama and Auburn. Best win was either Vandy or Ole Miss. Manziel probably can't gain back the ground to win it. Plus, he's a dick.
Mariota is also out. He looked slightly (just slightly) better while getting killed by Arizona with a much worse D at 27 of 41 for 308 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs with 52 rushing yards. Add to that his concussion and that he is questionable for this weekend's game and he isn't able to make up much ground.
Jordan Lynch doesn't and won't get enough eyeballs to watch him to win. He'll play either Buffalo (most likely) or Bowling Green in Detroit in the MAC championship game 12/6. No one will watch. No one will care. No hope for him.
#3 AJ McCarron? No way. Of the 5 best major conference QBs, he's a distant last in most categories. JM is Manziel, BP is Petty, JW is Winston, MM is Mariota. Last in Pass efficiency rating, total offense, points per game, yards per game (100 less than Manziel), TDs.
CategoryJM (rank)BP JW MM AJM
Pass efficiency 189.6 (3)206.2 (1)195.6 (2)176.2 (4)162.2 (5)
Total offense392.4 (1)346.6 (2)308.3 (4)329.6 (3)221.8 (5)
Completion percentage73.0 (1)65.2 (4)70.9 (2)64.2 (5)67.8 (3)
Yards/completion14.4 (4)19.7 (1)15.9 (2)15.4 (3)12.6 (5)
Points/game23.4 (1)22.7 (2)18.6 (4)20.4 (3)12.6 (5)
Pass yds/game331.3 (2)332.4 (1)293.8 (3)281.9 (4)222.8 (5)
Pass TDs31 (1)24 (4)28 (2)25 (3)21 (5)
Completions/gm23 (1)16.9 (5)18.5 (2)18.3 (3)17.7 (4)
Eyeball test(2)(4)(3)(1)(5)
ChampionshipsN/A (5)Poss. (4)Yes (3)Yes (2)Yes (1)
TDs/INTs31/11 (4)24/1 (2)28/7 (3)25/0 (1)21/5 (5)
4Q wins1 (1)1 (1)N/A (3)N/A (3)N/A (3)
Team record8-2 (5)9-0 (1)10-0 (1)9-1 (4)10-0 (1)
Totals3132343952
Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/2013/11/22/5361369/ams-manziel-baylors-petty-get.html#storylink=cpy
There would be no rational way for Heisman voters to explain choosing AJ McCarron over the other top QBs. Championships are nice but they alone can't win you the Heisman. He's got a hot chick, too, but I'm guessing all of these guys have access to top talent, just with less twitter followers than McCarron's Webb.
Winston is ahead for now, but what happens if/when he gets charged? It would be hard to imagine the Heisman voters permitting him to win with that type of a potential (likely?) criminal charge. Of course, Cam Newton wasn't a choir boy, but this is a Felony. If Winston gets charged prior to the 12/9 Heisman vote deadline, he'll be left off so many ballots, he'll be a distant also ran. If he doesn't get charged by then, there is still likely enough of a cloud of an impending charge and a bunch of voters feeling that he is getting out of charges simply because Tallahassee is a crooked place and he is a great QB at FSU, that he gets left off a bunch of ballots and falls from the top spot.
That leaves -- Andre Williams. 2,073 yards on the season is where he is and that is a lot. He's run for 850 yards in the last 3 games, which is more than Jerome Smith has run for all year. Of course, BC has been riding him hard and his 320 carries, which is 30 more than anyone else, is almost twice as many carries as Jerome Smith has at 166. He has the 13th highest single season rushing yard total in NCAA history right now. He's got 2 more games in this game at SU and a bowl game to see how high he can go up the all-time season totals list.
The top 3 ever are Barry Sanders, who sits at 2,628, Kevin Smith at 2,567, and Marcus Allen at 2,427. Next is Troy Davis at 2,185 and Andre Williams, who is averaging 188 yards/game needs only 112 more yards in two games to finish ahead of him. Barry Sanders and Marcus Allen obviously won Heismans for those years. Kevin Smith and Troy Davis did not, because they were laboring in a mid-major conference at UCF and in a land just as barren of eyeballs at Iowa State, respectively. Kevin Smith, by the way, ran the ball 450 times to get that total while Troy Davis ran it 402 times, either of which is a heck of a lot of carries and more than Williams will carry it this year. Williams will end up in the top 4 for highest single season rushing totals in a season. He is on pace to finish with more than Marcus Allen.
More important, Andre William isn't a QB. Heisman voters won't have to explain why they voted for a QB other than Winston, Mariota or Manziel with worse numbers. They won't have to explain Winston not getting the award in the event he doesn't ever get charged. That is why Andre Williams will win the Heisman this year.
Now, on to shutting him down:
Shafer has to be telling his team over and over again this week that Andre Williams will win that Heisman and it is our job to shut him down and prove we are the best defense in the country. SU is great against the run. We are 30th in the country at 141 yards against/game including giving up only 109/game in our last 3 and giving up only 21 yards rushing to Pitt.
Shafer has to be gameplanning for nothing other than shutting down Andre Williams. No other rusher averages more than 25 yards/game for BC. BC has the 113th ranked passing yardage in NCAA football at 149 yards/game. Heck, SU's passing attack is higher ranked and gets more yards/game than that. BC QB Rettig is at 1636 yards on the season at 62% completions and a little over 1 TD/game. BC has only 1 receiver averaging more than 1 catch/game and only 1 receiver averaging more than 13 yards/game.
I think SU holds Andre Williams to under 100 yards rushing. With him at under 100, SU wins this game in a close one, 17-14. Yes, yes, that means I think a FG and 2 XP are likely.
Williams will then run wild in that bowl game for a little over 250 and end up just ahead of Marcus Allen at 2,430, 3rd all-time and he gets that Heisman despite SU shutting him down.
