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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 706035, member: 289"] People are speculating on how Syracuse will do in the ACC. I decided to look at the Carrier Dome Era to compare how the programs have been ranked each year. I needed a source that ranked all Division 1A teams for each year and I chose this one: [url]http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm[/url] There are several others. I don’t know that one is better than another. They are pretty similar. I’m just trying to get an overall picture and I think this source will help me do that. The number shown below is the ranking Howell gave the teams each year. I’m looking at the schools that will be in the ACC for the foreseeable future. I decided to substitute Louisville, who will be coming in next year, for Maryland, which will be leaving. I am excluding Notre Dame, because that’s the way they want it. 1980 Pittsburgh (1), Florida State (2), North Carolina (5), Miami (13), Virginia Tech (34), Clemson (36), Boston College (39), North Carolina State (45), Wake Forest (52), Syracuse (60), Louisville (63), Virginia (81), Duke (98), Georgia Tech (102) Average: 45 1981 Clemson (1), Pittsburgh (3), Miami (8), North Carolina (9), Florida State (42), Virginia Tech (46), Duke (49), Syracuse (57), Boston College (62), North Carolina State (67), Wake Forest (88), Louisville (91), Georgia Tech (118), Virginia (120) Average: 54 1982 Pittsburgh (6), Florida State (10), Clemson (11), North Carolina (17), Boston College (28), Miami (29), Duke (44), North Carolina State (51), Georgia Tech (56), Virginia Tech (58), Louisville (81), Wake Forest (83), Syracuse (88), Virginia (98) Average: 47 1983 Miami (3), Clemson (11), Pittsburgh (13), Florida State (21), Boston College (22), Virginia Tech (25), North Carolina (33), Syracuse (45), Virginia (58), Georgia Tech (74), Wake Forest (79), Duke (83), North Carolina State (87), Louisville (94) Average: 46 1984 Boston College (6), Virginia (16), Florida State (19), Miami (22), Clemson (30), Virginia Tech (33), Syracuse (35), Georgia Tech (36), North Carolina (60), Wake Forest (63), Pittsburgh (70), North Carolina State (83), Duke (95), Louisville (100) Average: 48 1985 Miami (5), Georgia Tech (19), Florida State (23), Syracuse (39), Virginia (43), Clemson (45), Virginia Tech (48), Pittsburgh (50), North Carolina (54), Boston College (56), Wake Forest (70), Duke (79), North Carolina State (90), Louisville (106) Average: 52 1986 Miami (3), Clemson (15), Boston College (18), Florida State (24), Virginia Tech (25), North Carolina State (26), North Carolina (32), Pittsburgh (36), Georgia Tech (47), Syracuse (59), Wake Forest (62), Duke (75), Virginia (85), Louisville (94) Average: 43 1987 Miami (1), Florida State (2), Syracuse (4), Clemson (14), Pittsburgh (19), Virginia (30), Boston College (41), Wake Forest (43), North Carolina (50), Duke (59), Virginia Tech (68), North Carolina State (70), Georgia Tech (86), Louisville (93) Average: 41 1988 Miami (2), Florida State (4), Clemson (10), Syracuse (13), North Carolina State (20), Pittsburgh (33), Louisville (38), Virginia (42), Duke (43), Wake Forest (47), Virginia Tech (71), Georgia Tech (73), Boston College (76), North Carolina (88) Average: 40 1989 Miami (2), Florida State (3), Clemson (8), Virginia (15), Pittsburgh (26), Duke (27), Syracuse (34), Georgia Tech (35), Virginia Tech (36), North Carolina State (39), Louisville (49), Boston College (79), Wake Forest (88) North Carolina (99) Average: 39 1990 Georgia Tech (1), Miami (3), Clemson (5), Florida State (8), Virginia (13), Louisville (18), North Carolina State (29), Syracuse (30), Virginia Tech (35), North Carolina (40), Duke (62), Pittsburgh (67), Boston College (74), Wake Forest (85) Average: 34 1991 Miami (1), Florida State (4), Syracuse (11), Clemson (20), Virginia (25), North Carolina State (26), Georgia Tech (27), Pittsburgh (36), North Carolina (43), Boston College (44), Virginia Tech (46), Duke (72), Wake Forest (91), Louisville (96) Average: 39 1992 Florida State (2), Miami (3), Syracuse (10), North Carolina State (15), North Carolina (22), Boston College (25), Wake Forest (29), Virginia (33), Clemson (42), Georgia Tech (46), Louisville (51), Virginia Tech (78), Duke (83), Pittsburgh (93) Average: 38 1993 Florida State (1), Miami (12), Boston College (17), Louisville (19), Virginia Tech (21), North Carolina (23), Virginia (29), Clemson (32), Syracuse (34), North Carolina State (43), Georgia Tech (68), Pittsburgh (77), Duke (80), Wake Forest (95) Average: 39 1994 Florida State (3), Miami (5), Virginia (16), Boston College (22), North Carolina State (27), Virginia Tech (28), Duke (31), North Carolina (33), Syracuse (42), Louisville (59), Clemson (60), Pittsburgh (79), Wake Forest (94), Georgia Tech (95) Average: 42 1995 Florida State (9), Virginia Tech (12), Syracuse (18), Virginia (21), Miami (29), Clemson (35), North Carolina (45), Louisville (51), Georgia Tech (57), Boston College (66), Duke (84), North Carolina State (86), Pittsburgh (87), Wake Forest (107) Average: 51 1996 Florida State (3), North Carolina (9), Virginia Tech (12), Syracuse (14), Miami (20), Virginia (30), Clemson (47, Boston College (58), Louisville (60), Georgia Tech (65), North Carolina State (80), Pittsburgh (83), Wake Forest (95), Duke (104) Average: 49 1997 Florida State (3), North Carolina (10), Syracuse (27), Clemson (29), Georgia Tech (33), Virginia (34), North Carolina State (42), Virginia Tech (55), Wake Forest (67), Pittsburgh (69), Miami (71), Duke (84), Boston College (88), Louisville (105) Average: 51 1998 Florida State (3), Georgia Tech (14), Virginia Tech (17), Virginia (19), Syracuse (21), Miami (25), North Carolina State (36), North Carolina (43), Louisville (51), Boston College (65), Duke (77), Clemson (81), Wake Forest (83), Pittsburgh (99) Average: 45 1999 Florida State (1), Virginia Tech (3), Miami (13), Georgia Tech (20), Clemson (29), Virginia (37), Wake Forest (39), Boston College (43), Louisville (45), Syracuse (48), North Carolina State (56), Pittsburgh (68), Duke (82), North Carolina (86) Average: 41 2000 Miami (2), Florida State (3), Virginia Tech (6), Georgia Tech (16), Clemson (21), Louisville (32), Pittsburgh (40), Boston College (41), Syracuse (43), North Carolina State (46), North Carolina (63), Virginia (65), Wake Forest (108), Duke (113) Average: 43 2001 Miami (1), Syracuse (11), Louisville (15), Florida State (16), Virginia Tech (20), North Carolina (25), Boston College (27), Georgia Tech (29), Pittsburgh (41), Clemson (43), North Carolina State (46), Wake Forest (59), Virginia (71), Duke (109) Average: 37 2002 Miami (3), North Carolina State (12), Florida State (14), Virginia Tech (19), Pittsburgh (22), Virginia (25), Boston College (27), Clemson (45), Georgia Tech (46), Wake Forest (47), Louisville (62), Syracuse (75), North Carolina (80), Duke (97) Average: 41 2003 Florida State (6), Miami (7), Clemson (21), Virginia (28), North Carolina State (29), Virginia Tech (36), Georgia Tech (38), Pittsburgh (41), Boston College (43), Louisville (48), Wake Forest (60), Syracuse (65), Duke (87), North Carolina (92) Average: 43 2004 Louisville (7), Virginia Tech (8), Miami (9), Florida State (14), Virginia (21), Boston College (27), Georgia Tech (32), Pittsburgh (39), North Carolina (42), Clemson (45), North Carolina State (56), Syracuse (64), Wake Forest (80), Duke (97) Average: 39 2005 Virginia Tech (5), Miami (11), Boston College (13), Louisville (22), Clemson (23), Florida State (24), Georgia Tech (31), North Carolina State (35), Virginia (38), North Carolina (55), Pittsburgh (69), Wake Forest (72), Duke (108), Syracuse (109) Average: 44 2006 Louisville (2), Virginia Tech (17), Boston College (19), Wake Forest (21), Clemson (29), Georgia Tech (30), Florida State (41), Miami (54), Pittsburgh (55), Virginia (74), Syracuse (75), North Carolina State (87), North Carolina (97), Duke (116) Average: 51 2007 Virginia Tech (9), Boston College (16), Clemson (22), Wake Forest (28), Virginia (32), Florida State (44), Georgia Tech (53), Louisville (54), Pittsburgh (67), North Carolina State (74), Miami (77), North Carolina (83), Syracuse (106), Duke (109) Average: 55 2008 Virginia Tech (17), Florida State (19), Pittsburgh (22), Boston College (27), Georgia Tech (30), Wake Forest (31), North Carolina (32), Clemson (41), Miami (44), North Carolina State (57), Virginia (64), Duke (80), Louisville (85), Syracuse (97) Average: 46 2009 Virginia Tech (6), Georgia Tech (14), Pittsburgh (15), Miami (17), Clemson (23), North Carolina (33), Florida State (43), Boston College (46), Wake Forest (70), North Carolina State (77), Duke (82), Louisville (83), Syracuse (85), Virginia (90) Average: 50 2010 Virginia Tech (15), Florida State (16), North Carolina State (21), Pittsburgh (35), Miami (36), North Carolina (39), Clemson (45), Boston College (54), Syracuse (55), Louisville (60), Georgia Tech (71), Virginia (87), Wake Forest (94), Duke (95) Average: 52 2011 Virginia Tech (19), Florida State (25), Clemson (27), Georgia Tech (45), North Carolina (48), North Carolina State (50), Louisville (55), Virginia (56), Miami (57), Pittsburgh (72), Wake Forest (74), Syracuse (82), Boston College (93), Duke (102) Average: 54 2012 Florida State (11), Clemson (14), Louisville (21), Syracuse (44), North Carolina (54), Georgia Tech (55), Virginia Tech (57), Miami (61), Pittsburgh (64), North Carolina State (67), Duke (74), Virginia (90), Wake Forest (93), Boston College (108) Average: 58 The average ranking, (by Howell): Florida State 14.03 range: 1-44 top 10s: 16 conference “titles”: 9 SU was better: 1 time Miami 19.67 range: 1-73 top 10s: 16 conference “titles”: 10 SU was better: 5 times Virginia Tech 26.33 range: 3-78 top 10s: 6 conference “titles”: 1 SU was better: 10 times Clemson 29.09 range: 1-81 top 10s: 3 conference “titles”: 1 SU was better: 10 times Boston College 44.55 range: 6-108 top 10s: 1 conference “titles”: 1 SU was better: 15 times Georgia Tech 47.33 range: 1-118 top 10s: 1 conference “titles”: 1 SU was better: 17 times North Carolina 47.79 range: 5-99 top 10s: 4 conference “titles”: 0 SU was better: 18 times Pittsburgh 48.33 range: 1-99 top 10: 3 conference “titles”: 2 SU was better: 16 times Syracuse 48.48 range: 4-109 top 10s: 2 conference “titles”: 0 Virginia 50.21 range: 13-120 top 10s: 0 conference “titles”: 0 SU was better: 18 times North Carolina State 50.76 range: 12-90 top 10s: 0 conference “titles”: 0 SU was better: 18 times Louisville 57.88 range: 21-105 top 10s: 2 conference “titles”: 2 SU was better: 18 times Wake Forest 69.61 range: 21-108 top 10s: 0 conference “titles”: 0 SU was better: 22 times Duke 81.21 range: 27-116 top 10s: 0 conference “titles”: 0 SU was better: 25 times I see four strata here: Florida State and Miami are the true powerhouses, capable of being regular contenders for the national championship when not held back by probation. Miami is down now but we’ve seen several examples of dormant powerhouses rising again in recent history: Oklahoma, USC, Alabama, even Miami itself after their troubles in the late 90’s. Florida State has slowly been building back up and the Noles are perhaps just a notch below what they once were. South Florida will get knocked down a peg being in the sinking ship that is the Big East football conference. That will help both these schools. When they are on their game, they will be the class of the conference. Virginia Tech and Clemson are on the next level. The Hokies have been better at their best but the Tigers have been consistently good the entire 30 years. Louisville is currently in the next group but I think that is deceiving. They are a powerhouse athletic department, making tons of money right now. The school is in SEC country but also close to prime recruiting areas in Ohio and Pennsylvania. I don’t see them rising to the Florida State/Miami level for the next 33 years but I think they will be on a par with Virginia Tech and Clemson. Then comes what I will call the “elevator bank” teams. They represent the middle of the conference and will be up and down. In good years they might be on the second tier. In a dream year they might be on the first tier. But they will be up and down. Their games against each other should be very competitive and they will occasionally pull off an upset over a higher tiered school. Some years it won’t be an upset. But they are not going to be dominant programs or regular contenders. They are Boston College, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia and North Carolina State. (Maybe we can finally beat the Wolfpack: we are 0-6 against them all time.) The bottom feeders will be Wake Forest and Duke. The Deacons have had their moments in recent years and Grobe is a good coach but I don’t think they can sustain it. Can we compete in the ACC? I think so. That doesn’t tell me how much we will win there or how often we will compete for a title. It may help that the conference is split into divisions. We could have a year when we are strong but the division is weak. If we can get to the conference title game, that’s one game and if we got there, we are good enough to win it. I think it’s a conference that will be very tough on struggling teams, much like the basketball Big East, (or the basketball ACC), where even a pretty good team could get pounded down playing someone each week who can beat them, even if they play poorly. It will be quite a challenge but we need to keep the legs pumping to keep our heads above water. [/QUOTE]

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