SU vs. the ACC

[SWC75]

People are speculating on how Syracuse will do in the ACC. I decided to look at the Carrier Dome Era to compare how the programs have been ranked each year. I needed a source that ranked all Division 1A teams for each year and I chose this one:
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cfindex.htm
There are several others. I don’t know that one is better than another. They are pretty similar. I’m just trying to get an overall picture and I think this source will help me do that. The number shown below is the ranking Howell gave the teams each year. I’m looking at the schools that will be in the ACC for the foreseeable future. I decided to substitute Louisville, who will be coming in next year, for Maryland, which will be leaving. I am excluding Notre Dame, because that’s the way they want it.

1980
Pittsburgh (1), Florida State (2), North Carolina (5), Miami (13), Virginia Tech (34), Clemson (36), Boston College (39), North Carolina State (45), Wake Forest (52), Syracuse (60), Louisville (63), Virginia (81), Duke (98), Georgia Tech (102) Average: 45

1981
Clemson (1), Pittsburgh (3), Miami (8), North Carolina (9), Florida State (42), Virginia Tech (46), Duke (49), Syracuse (57), Boston College (62), North Carolina State (67), Wake Forest (88), Louisville (91), Georgia Tech (118), Virginia (120) Average: 54

1982
Pittsburgh (6), Florida State (10), Clemson (11), North Carolina (17), Boston College (28), Miami (29), Duke (44), North Carolina State (51), Georgia Tech (56), Virginia Tech (58), Louisville (81), Wake Forest (83), Syracuse (88), Virginia (98) Average: 47

1983
Miami (3), Clemson (11), Pittsburgh (13), Florida State (21), Boston College (22), Virginia Tech (25), North Carolina (33), Syracuse (45), Virginia (58), Georgia Tech (74), Wake Forest (79), Duke (83), North Carolina State (87), Louisville (94) Average: 46

1984
Boston College (6), Virginia (16), Florida State (19), Miami (22), Clemson (30), Virginia Tech (33), Syracuse (35), Georgia Tech (36), North Carolina (60), Wake Forest (63), Pittsburgh (70), North Carolina State (83), Duke (95), Louisville (100) Average: 48

1985
Miami (5), Georgia Tech (19), Florida State (23), Syracuse (39), Virginia (43), Clemson (45), Virginia Tech (48), Pittsburgh (50), North Carolina (54), Boston College (56), Wake Forest (70), Duke (79), North Carolina State (90), Louisville (106) Average: 52

1986
Miami (3), Clemson (15), Boston College (18), Florida State (24), Virginia Tech (25), North Carolina State (26), North Carolina (32), Pittsburgh (36), Georgia Tech (47), Syracuse (59), Wake Forest (62), Duke (75), Virginia (85), Louisville (94) Average: 43

1987
Miami (1), Florida State (2), Syracuse (4), Clemson (14), Pittsburgh (19), Virginia (30), Boston College (41), Wake Forest (43), North Carolina (50), Duke (59), Virginia Tech (68), North Carolina State (70), Georgia Tech (86), Louisville (93) Average: 41

1988
Miami (2), Florida State (4), Clemson (10), Syracuse (13), North Carolina State (20), Pittsburgh (33), Louisville (38), Virginia (42), Duke (43), Wake Forest (47), Virginia Tech (71), Georgia Tech (73), Boston College (76), North Carolina (88) Average: 40

1989
Miami (2), Florida State (3), Clemson (8), Virginia (15), Pittsburgh (26), Duke (27), Syracuse (34), Georgia Tech (35), Virginia Tech (36), North Carolina State (39), Louisville (49), Boston College (79), Wake Forest (88) North Carolina (99) Average: 39

1990
Georgia Tech (1), Miami (3), Clemson (5), Florida State (8), Virginia (13), Louisville (18), North Carolina State (29), Syracuse (30), Virginia Tech (35), North Carolina (40), Duke (62), Pittsburgh (67), Boston College (74), Wake Forest (85) Average: 34

1991
Miami (1), Florida State (4), Syracuse (11), Clemson (20), Virginia (25), North Carolina State (26), Georgia Tech (27), Pittsburgh (36), North Carolina (43), Boston College (44), Virginia Tech (46), Duke (72), Wake Forest (91), Louisville (96) Average: 39

1992
Florida State (2), Miami (3), Syracuse (10), North Carolina State (15), North Carolina (22), Boston College (25), Wake Forest (29), Virginia (33), Clemson (42), Georgia Tech (46), Louisville (51), Virginia Tech (78), Duke (83), Pittsburgh (93) Average: 38

1993
Florida State (1), Miami (12), Boston College (17), Louisville (19), Virginia Tech (21), North Carolina (23), Virginia (29), Clemson (32), Syracuse (34), North Carolina State (43), Georgia Tech (68), Pittsburgh (77), Duke (80), Wake Forest (95) Average: 39

1994
Florida State (3), Miami (5), Virginia (16), Boston College (22), North Carolina State (27), Virginia Tech (28), Duke (31), North Carolina (33), Syracuse (42), Louisville (59), Clemson (60), Pittsburgh (79), Wake Forest (94), Georgia Tech (95) Average: 42

1995
Florida State (9), Virginia Tech (12), Syracuse (18), Virginia (21), Miami (29), Clemson (35), North Carolina (45), Louisville (51), Georgia Tech (57), Boston College (66), Duke (84), North Carolina State (86), Pittsburgh (87), Wake Forest (107) Average: 51

1996
Florida State (3), North Carolina (9), Virginia Tech (12), Syracuse (14), Miami (20), Virginia (30), Clemson (47, Boston College (58), Louisville (60), Georgia Tech (65), North Carolina State (80), Pittsburgh (83), Wake Forest (95), Duke (104) Average: 49

1997
Florida State (3), North Carolina (10), Syracuse (27), Clemson (29), Georgia Tech (33), Virginia (34), North Carolina State (42), Virginia Tech (55), Wake Forest (67), Pittsburgh (69), Miami (71), Duke (84), Boston College (88), Louisville (105) Average: 51

1998
Florida State (3), Georgia Tech (14), Virginia Tech (17), Virginia (19), Syracuse (21), Miami (25), North Carolina State (36), North Carolina (43), Louisville (51), Boston College (65), Duke (77), Clemson (81), Wake Forest (83), Pittsburgh (99) Average: 45

1999
Florida State (1), Virginia Tech (3), Miami (13), Georgia Tech (20), Clemson (29), Virginia (37), Wake Forest (39), Boston College (43), Louisville (45), Syracuse (48), North Carolina State (56), Pittsburgh (68), Duke (82), North Carolina (86) Average: 41

2000
Miami (2), Florida State (3), Virginia Tech (6), Georgia Tech (16), Clemson (21), Louisville (32), Pittsburgh (40), Boston College (41), Syracuse (43), North Carolina State (46), North Carolina (63), Virginia (65), Wake Forest (108), Duke (113) Average: 43

2001
Miami (1), Syracuse (11), Louisville (15), Florida State (16), Virginia Tech (20), North Carolina (25), Boston College (27), Georgia Tech (29), Pittsburgh (41), Clemson (43), North Carolina State (46), Wake Forest (59), Virginia (71), Duke (109) Average: 37

2002
Miami (3), North Carolina State (12), Florida State (14), Virginia Tech (19), Pittsburgh (22), Virginia (25), Boston College (27), Clemson (45), Georgia Tech (46), Wake Forest (47), Louisville (62), Syracuse (75), North Carolina (80), Duke (97) Average: 41

2003
Florida State (6), Miami (7), Clemson (21), Virginia (28), North Carolina State (29), Virginia Tech (36), Georgia Tech (38), Pittsburgh (41), Boston College (43), Louisville (48), Wake Forest (60), Syracuse (65), Duke (87), North Carolina (92) Average: 43

2004
Louisville (7), Virginia Tech (8), Miami (9), Florida State (14), Virginia (21), Boston College (27), Georgia Tech (32), Pittsburgh (39), North Carolina (42), Clemson (45), North Carolina State (56), Syracuse (64), Wake Forest (80), Duke (97) Average: 39

2005
Virginia Tech (5), Miami (11), Boston College (13), Louisville (22), Clemson (23), Florida State (24), Georgia Tech (31), North Carolina State (35), Virginia (38), North Carolina (55), Pittsburgh (69), Wake Forest (72), Duke (108), Syracuse (109) Average: 44

2006
Louisville (2), Virginia Tech (17), Boston College (19), Wake Forest (21), Clemson (29), Georgia Tech (30), Florida State (41), Miami (54), Pittsburgh (55), Virginia (74), Syracuse (75), North Carolina State (87), North Carolina (97), Duke (116) Average: 51

2007
Virginia Tech (9), Boston College (16), Clemson (22), Wake Forest (28), Virginia (32), Florida State (44), Georgia Tech (53), Louisville (54), Pittsburgh (67), North Carolina State (74), Miami (77), North Carolina (83), Syracuse (106), Duke (109) Average: 55

2008
Virginia Tech (17), Florida State (19), Pittsburgh (22), Boston College (27), Georgia Tech (30), Wake Forest (31), North Carolina (32), Clemson (41), Miami (44), North Carolina State (57), Virginia (64), Duke (80), Louisville (85), Syracuse (97) Average: 46

2009
Virginia Tech (6), Georgia Tech (14), Pittsburgh (15), Miami (17), Clemson (23), North Carolina (33), Florida State (43), Boston College (46), Wake Forest (70), North Carolina State (77), Duke (82), Louisville (83), Syracuse (85), Virginia (90) Average: 50

2010
Virginia Tech (15), Florida State (16), North Carolina State (21), Pittsburgh (35), Miami (36), North Carolina (39), Clemson (45), Boston College (54), Syracuse (55), Louisville (60), Georgia Tech (71), Virginia (87), Wake Forest (94), Duke (95) Average: 52

2011
Virginia Tech (19), Florida State (25), Clemson (27), Georgia Tech (45), North Carolina (48), North Carolina State (50), Louisville (55), Virginia (56), Miami (57), Pittsburgh (72), Wake Forest (74), Syracuse (82), Boston College (93), Duke (102) Average: 54

2012
Florida State (11), Clemson (14), Louisville (21), Syracuse (44), North Carolina (54), Georgia Tech (55), Virginia Tech (57), Miami (61), Pittsburgh (64), North Carolina State (67), Duke (74), Virginia (90), Wake Forest (93), Boston College (108) Average: 58

The average ranking, (by Howell):

Florida State 14.03 range: 1-44 top 10s: 16 conference “titles”: 9 SU was better: 1 time
Miami 19.67 range: 1-73 top 10s: 16 conference “titles”: 10 SU was better: 5 times
Virginia Tech 26.33 range: 3-78 top 10s: 6 conference “titles”: 1 SU was better: 10 times
Clemson 29.09 range: 1-81 top 10s: 3 conference “titles”: 1 SU was better: 10 times
Boston College 44.55 range: 6-108 top 10s: 1 conference “titles”: 1 SU was better: 15 times
Georgia Tech 47.33 range: 1-118 top 10s: 1 conference “titles”: 1 SU was better: 17 times
North Carolina 47.79 range: 5-99 top 10s: 4 conference “titles”: 0 SU was better: 18 times
Pittsburgh 48.33 range: 1-99 top 10: 3 conference “titles”: 2 SU was better: 16 times
Syracuse 48.48 range: 4-109 top 10s: 2 conference “titles”: 0
Virginia 50.21 range: 13-120 top 10s: 0 conference “titles”: 0 SU was better: 18 times
North Carolina State 50.76 range: 12-90 top 10s: 0 conference “titles”: 0 SU was better: 18 times
Louisville 57.88 range: 21-105 top 10s: 2 conference “titles”: 2 SU was better: 18 times
Wake Forest 69.61 range: 21-108 top 10s: 0 conference “titles”: 0 SU was better: 22 times
Duke 81.21 range: 27-116 top 10s: 0 conference “titles”: 0 SU was better: 25 times

I see four strata here:

Florida State and Miami are the true powerhouses, capable of being regular contenders for the national championship when not held back by probation. Miami is down now but we’ve seen several examples of dormant powerhouses rising again in recent history: Oklahoma, USC, Alabama, even Miami itself after their troubles in the late 90’s. Florida State has slowly been building back up and the Noles are perhaps just a notch below what they once were. South Florida will get knocked down a peg being in the sinking ship that is the Big East football conference. That will help both these schools. When they are on their game, they will be the class of the conference.

Virginia Tech and Clemson are on the next level. The Hokies have been better at their best but the Tigers have been consistently good the entire 30 years. Louisville is currently in the next group but I think that is deceiving. They are a powerhouse athletic department, making tons of money right now. The school is in SEC country but also close to prime recruiting areas in Ohio and Pennsylvania. I don’t see them rising to the Florida State/Miami level for the next 33 years but I think they will be on a par with Virginia Tech and Clemson.

Then comes what I will call the “elevator bank” teams. They represent the middle of the conference and will be up and down. In good years they might be on the second tier. In a dream year they might be on the first tier. But they will be up and down. Their games against each other should be very competitive and they will occasionally pull off an upset over a higher tiered school. Some years it won’t be an upset. But they are not going to be dominant programs or regular contenders. They are Boston College, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia and North Carolina State. (Maybe we can finally beat the Wolfpack: we are 0-6 against them all time.)

The bottom feeders will be Wake Forest and Duke. The Deacons have had their moments in recent years and Grobe is a good coach but I don’t think they can sustain it.


Can we compete in the ACC? I think so. That doesn’t tell me how much we will win there or how often we will compete for a title. It may help that the conference is split into divisions. We could have a year when we are strong but the division is weak. If we can get to the conference title game, that’s one game and if we got there, we are good enough to win it. I think it’s a conference that will be very tough on struggling teams, much like the basketball Big East, (or the basketball ACC), where even a pretty good team could get pounded down playing someone each week who can beat them, even if they play poorly. It will be quite a challenge but we need to keep the legs pumping to keep our heads above water.

 

[SWC75]

Here’s a little bonus: These are the Division1A schools that have had the highest winning percentage since the Dome opened in 1980:
http://football.stassen.com/cgi-bin...=1980&end=2012&rpct=30&min=5&se=on&by=Win+Pct

Dropping Boise State, who hasn’t even been major college the entire period and has never been at a BCS level, the top ten teams are: Nebraska, Miami, Florida State, Ohio State, Florida, Oklahoma, Michigan, Georgia, Brigham Young and Texas. We are 41st on the list, (including Boise) but we have played all of those top ten teams since the Dome opened and beaten 8 of them. We bobbled away changes to beat the other two, (Oklahoma and Florida State). By Howell’s ratings, we’ve been better than Nebraska 4 times, better than Miami 5 times, better than Florida State once, better than Ohio State 6 times, better than Florida 3 times, better than Oklahoma 8 times, better than Michigan 3 times, better than Georgia 10 times, better than Brigham Young 12 times and better than Texas 9 times. The current Godzilla of college football, Alabama finished 14th on the list. We’ve been better than them 8 times since 1980.”Yeah but those were during down years for those team”. But that’s the point- they have down years and we have up years, even if we are usually not as good as they are.

The bad thing about college football is the extent to which location, the type of school, facilities, budget, the head coach’s reputation and a recent history of winning dominate recruiting. The good thing about it is that they are recruiting teenagers, young men who are not yet what they are going to be and might not become what they could be. The deck gets shuffled every year as to who is better than who. Those recruiting advantages have their greatest impact in terms of year-to- year consistency, rather than single season or even game potential. That Auburn team that beat Oregon for the national title looked like the our 1998 team if Dwight Freeney had been a healthy senior rather than an injured freshman, (McNabb= Newton and Freeney = Fairley). The difference between Syracuse and the football factories is the difference between the Greek Phalanx vs. the Roman Legion, not either of those vs. the Starship Enterprise. We need to be realistic about what we can accomplish over time but we can still dream about great success in individual seasons and games. Those dreams could come true.

 

[Shaggy]

Thank you for your time and research effort, very cool piece to look at.

 

[Btstimpy]

The average ranking, (by Howell):

Florida State 14.03 range: 1-44 top 10s: 16 conference “titles”: 9 SU was better: 1 time
Miami 19.67 range: 1-73 top 10s: 16 conference “titles”: 10 SU was better: 5 times
Virginia Tech 26.33 range: 3-78 top 10s: 6 conference “titles”: 1 SU was better: 10 times
Clemson 29.09 range: 1-81 top 10s: 3 conference “titles”: 1 SU was better: 10 times
Boston College 44.55 range: 6-108 top 10s: 1 conference “titles”: 1 SU was better: 15 times
Georgia Tech 47.33 range: 1-118 top 10s: 1 conference “titles”: 1 SU was better: 17 times
North Carolina 47.79 range: 5-99 top 10s: 4 conference “titles”: 0 SU was better: 18 times
Pittsburgh 48.33 range: 1-99 top 10: 3 conference “titles”: 2 SU was better: 16 times
Syracuse 48.48 range: 4-109 top 10s: 2 conference “titles”: 0
Virginia 50.21 range: 13-120 top 10s: 0 conference “titles”: 0 SU was better: 18 times
North Carolina State 50.76 range: 12-90 top 10s: 0 conference “titles”: 0 SU was better: 18 times
Louisville 57.88 range: 21-105 top 10s: 2 conference “titles”: 2 SU was better: 18 times
Wake Forest 69.61 range: 21-108 top 10s: 0 conference “titles”: 0 SU was better: 22 times
Duke 81.21 range: 27-116 top 10s: 0 conference “titles”: 0 SU was better: 25 times

Great stuff that really does show who the football powers are and who aren't along with how they stack up. In this section though, I noticed that the conference "titles" numbers were not accurate. Virginia Tech and Clemson have at least 5 each, maybe more. Georgia Tech has more than one. UVA has 2 in 1989 and 1995. Wake Forest has 1 in 2006. Duke has 1 in 1989. Maryland has some, but you don't show them because they are leaving. The rest all looks right.

 

[texascpa]

I like how our last year in the BE and we ended up ranked #44.

 

[SWC75]

Great stuff that really does show who the football powers are and who aren't along with how they stack up. In this section though, I noticed that the conference "titles" numbers were not accurate. Virginia Tech and Clemson have at least 5 each, maybe more. Georgia Tech has more than one. UVA has 2 in 1989 and 1995. Wake Forest has 1 in 2006. Duke has 1 in 1989. Maryland has some, but you don't show them because they are leaving. The rest all looks right.

I listed them according to Howell's rankings. "conference titles" means they were the highest ranked of those 14 teams by Howell.

 

[Btstimpy]

I listed them according to Howell's rankings. "conference titles" means they were the highest ranked of those 14 teams by Howell.

Ok. Got It. I thought it meant ACC or Big East Titles.

 

[AtlantaTiger]

Thanks for explaining the definition of conference titles. I know Clemson has ACC titles 1981, 1982, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1991, 2011 during that period. I guess the final ranking is before bowls because last year's Clemson team finished 9th. Nice information and it was an interesting read. Welcome to the ACC!

 

[SWC75]

Thanks for explaining the definition of conference titles. I know Clemson has ACC titles 1981, 1982, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1991, 2011 during that period. I guess the final ranking is before bowls because last year's Clemson team finished 9th. Nice information and it was an interesting read. Welcome to the ACC!

It was after the bowls but it is Howell's ranking, not the writer's or coaches:
http://www.jhowell.net/cf/cf2012.htm

I'm not using Howell's ranking because I consider it better than other rankings. For the purpose of my study I needed someone who ranked all D1A teams since 1980 and Howell did. You can argue with many of his decisions and advocate another set of rankings but I doubt if I used other rankings that the overall conclusions of the study would be very different.