super basic projections

[Sgt Cuse]

There’s less chance that you pay off my mortgage than we get a 4 seed this year.

I agree, however tempting it may be to pay off your mortgage.

 

[NateW]

I’m not willing to put a ceiling on this team.

Things are getting better... they’re getting better, all the time.

 

[tbonezone]

Imagine beating a heavily loaded Duke twice this season. It would be epoch and it’s feasible though unlikely. This site would go down from activity so fast. Wonder what point spread would be next time? 12 maybe

the dukies missed wide open looks. i wouldn't count on that luck twice.

 

[SUFan44]

There’s more of a chance that you pay off my mortgage than we get a 4 seed this year.

We could get a 4 seed, no question about it. Will take a lot of work and for the team to be consistent, but it can be done. If we go 13-5 and make the finals of the ACC Tournament, we are either a 4 or 5, and I could see our wins being good enough to get a 4.

That requires winning all of the games we (on paper) would likely either be favored for or slight underdogs in a road game:

Miami, B.C., at Pitt, FSU, at B.C., Louisville, at Wake Forest, at Clemson.

That gets you to 12 wins -- tall task winning all the games you should, but our program has done it before. Then you need one from the following list:

Duke, UVa, at UNC, at NC State, at Va Tech

That gets you to 22-9, like in the Top 20 (Clemson was 22-8 last year), and a double bye in the ACC Tournament.

You'll likely get a L'Ville/NC State in the quarters before UNC/Duke or UVa in the semis. Win that game and you're likely a 4 seed at 24-10 with a loss in the final.

Not sure if it's likely, but it's certainly not out of the range of possible.

 

[GooseMutt]

the dukies missed wide open looks. i wouldn't count on that luck twice.

I hear ya. The odds are exponential but can lightning hit twice. Bet they believe more than ever they can beat anyone on a given night. Tyus seems like a really determined focused madman when he’s triggered. If he comes out the gate pissed, everyone feeds on that. We might get mentioned on espn too

 

[MadNY3]

if simple rating system at the moment is correct and if the team with the better SRS wins the rest of the way, we end up 20-11 (11-7) and go 7-6 the rest of the way

SRS > Miami, BC x2, Pitt, FSU, Wake, Clemson
SRS < VT, NC State, Lou, Duke, UNC, UVA

So now we expect the rest of the season to be rational? Eh...

 

[rrlbees]

the dukies missed wide open looks. i wouldn't count on that luck twice.

All you’re doing is pissing on every thread. Stop.

 

[Halfmooncuse]

What are chances we make the NCAAT

 

[jncuse]

We are currently a 9 seed on the bracket matrix.

Per the Matrix the final #4 seed is Buffalo, and they loss tonight to Northern Illinois (holy crap that black floor!!!)

So one of following 5 seeds moves up == Louisville, Iowa, St, Oklahoma, Villanova... Point being that #16 spot is not that strong, and we don't have that large a hole behind them

That being said we have to make up ground to get there and maintain it. It's not as impossible as some say, but it is not that likely either, as some teams above us in that 5-8 line will also have a nice run as well.

 

[Knicks411]

Fwiw, using Pomeroy projections, he has us finishing 10-8. Schedule gets real tough at the end, we need to bank as many wins now as we can.

We have a few toss-up games, games in like the 45-55% win probability, give or take, coming up. @Pitt (51% win), home FSU (58%), I'll even throw @BC (61% win)

Things are definitely looking up from where they were a few weeks ago, but it can turn the other way real quickly. The final 7 games are brutal; we're projected to win 2.62 and may only be more than 1 point favorite in one of them (@Wake. Lville is prob close to a toss-up). So we really need to bank wins in the next 6; miami, @Tech, @BC, @Pitt, FSU, BC. 5-1 is probably too much to ask?

 

[Cusefan0307]

the dukies missed wide open looks. i wouldn't count on that luck twice.

So did we.

You make up excuses for other teams that you never make for Boeheim. Hopefully you get run out of here soon.

 

[Millhouse]

So now we expect the rest of the season to be rational? Eh...

i called it super basic for a reason. point of the post was to look our current schedule adjusted margin of victory compared to our future opponents

 

[Millhouse]

Fwiw, using Pomeroy projections, he has us finishing 10-8. Schedule gets real tough at the end, we need to bank as many wins now as we can.

We have a few toss-up games, games in like the 45-55% win probability, give or take, coming up. @Pitt (51% win), home FSU (58%), I'll even throw @BC (61% win)

Things are definitely looking up from where they were a few weeks ago, but it can turn the other way real quickly. The final 7 games are brutal; we're projected to win 2.62 and may only be more than 1 point favorite in one of them (@Wake. Lville is prob close to a toss-up). So we really need to bank wins in the next 6; miami, @Tech, @BC, @Pitt, FSU, BC. 5-1 is probably too much to ask?

he's probably adjusting for home away which i wasn't - SRS is probably as good as any other rating out there, in the end they all converge pretty close.

if we want to be optimistic, we were probably playing much further below our capabilities earlier this yearso there's a good chance that if the ratings are wrong, they're wrong in a good way for us

 

[CuseFaninVT]

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