Very exciting time to be an SU fan! Scoring a big win against the
hated Hokies on Saturday was a nice way to set the stage for the rest of the season… and lo and behold, hoops has snuck up on us.
This is my annual preseason practice report. The observations being reported factor in multiple different trips up to the Melo Center to see the team play, as well as some observations / information reported to me from quality sources [including some posters, who I'll try to footnote / credit accordingly]. Before diving into the player evaluations, let me begin by going through some
general impressions about the team we have this year:
HIGH LEVEL FIRST IMPRESSIONS OF THIS YEAR'S TEAM:
- The entire team is focused—you can tell that making the Final Four left a big impression on this squad, and the team has that look in their eyes about wanting to make it back. And with a lineup as talented, versatile, and big as ours, they've got a legit chance.
- The coaching staff deserves major, major credit for fleshing this roster out to 10 players, after the off-season attrition [some of which was unexpected, i.e., Malichi's departure]. 10 players not only gives us a solid roster depth wise, but it is also very important because it enables the coaching staff to run 5-on-5 scrimmages, with no weak links. The staff did a terrific job of adding not one, not two, but THREE players after the May timeframe, several of whom will have a major impact on this year's team.
- Practices have been very competitive, and despite some suggestions to the contrary, the lineup could be very much in flux after the beginning of the season. This bodes really well for the team – competition for minutes, with legitimate players often stacking 2 to 3 deep per position, is a great formula for success, and means that guys will be competing every single practice to earn limited playing time.
- We have an airport team. Unbelievable frontcourt size, and not just from the new 7-2 guy. Lydon [6-9], Thompson [6-10], Roberson [6-8], Coleman [6-9] and even Moyer [6-8]. Lots of potential answers up front there. Coming off of a year where we had virtually zero depth up front, it will be a welcome change.
- I'll be shocked if Boeheim doesn't go 9 deep this season. It might be more like 8.5, but the two guys at the tail end of the rotation are Thompson / Moyer… and make no mistake about it, they can both play. Consider that if either of these two had been on last year's team, not only would they have been in the rotation, they also would have played significant minutes.
- This team feels a lot like the 2012 squad – tons of answers, tons of lineup versatility, and the coaching staff has such depth that they won't necessarily be locked into being forced to play someone who is having an "off" game just because there is nobody else to play.
- We're going to see game-to-game variation in minutes distribution throughout the year, depending on match ups and who happens to be playing better any particular night.
- The three ball will again be an important part of our offensive attack this season. Might not be so all or nothing as it was last year, but I think this year's team can be even more effectively than last year's team shooting the ball, because this squad has more floor balance
- Motion offense is back, and we'll see a much different style of offensive play than what we've seen the past three years [say goodbye to that ugly iso from three years ago, and the tedious ball screening from the past two years while we struggled to get guys freed up]. Lots of guys who can create offense on this year's team, plus better floor spacing, is really going to open things up a lot more. If we can hit the three consistently [and we have two guys and maybe three who are deadeye shooters], we're going to be a really tough "out" any given game.
PLAYER EVALUATIONS:
Tyus Battle: Battle struggled a bit offensively the two practices that were observed—no doubt, this had something to do with him being matched up against Andrew White, who is physically more mature and knows how to use his body to play the game like a man [where Battle is an incoming frosh who has yet to play a game]. Battle is the most athletic player on the team—bar none, he is explosive as heck. But right now he seems to be struggling a bit to put it all together. Before anyone panics, let me explain—Battle has tremendous versatility, but that can be a blessing and a curse, because he sometimes gets caught up trying to decide what to do instead of just instinctively doing it. Both times he was observed, he also fell into the trap of trying to match White shot for shot, which isn't his game, and needless to say White got the better part of that exchange. What Battle DOES do well is create for himself in the open floor, and use his size when he gets into the lane and pulls up. He reminds me a lot of James White from Florida / Cincinnati – big guard who can put it on the floor. Shot looks solid, but he seems much more comfortable from 15 than behind the arc right now. I'd say that as a complimentary three point shooter, where he receives the ball after two quick passes around the perimeter and has time to line it up, he'll shoot around ~35% for the year. Luckily, we don't have to rely upon him to be a big producer from three, which is okay since several other players are capable of providing volume shooting from out there. Battle is a guy who is probably outside of the starting lineup as things stand today, but who has a very high probability of shifting into the starting lineup and shaking up the starting unit. Expect that to happen before SU gets out of the early portion of the preseason schedule, once he gets his sea legs and has a good performance or two under his belt.
Andrew White: Magnificent shooter, legit double figure scorer. At the end of last season, there was a lot of hand wringing about all of the offense / shooting we were losing, and the coaching staff did an incredible job loading back up by bringing White to the hill. He is going to provide the consistent offense [along with Lydon] that the team didn't look like it had back in May. As others have pointed out, White "All Business," because that's how he is approaching preseason practice. Kid really has the eye of the tiger—he knows that this is his last go around, he hasn't made a deep tournament run in his entire college career, and he knows that this team has the goods to not just get to the final four, but also to cut the nets down. And White is a big reason why. Let's start off with the good. White is a strong kid who knows all the tricks about how to use his physique to clear space and get off shots. Very strong and active, shoots the ball well, but seems more like a right at the line guy than a deep guy like Rautins or Gbinije. His soft shooting is also evident inside the arc. He doesn't take it to the rim at all, and isn't a threat off of the bounce. He is very much relegated to being a one bounce guy to free up space when defenders come charging at him—and there's nothing wrong with that [a lot like Demetris Nichols in that regard]. I agree with Gmacfor3's practice report about him struggling to stay in front of defenders and move his feet—struggles to keep guys in front of him and prevent penetration atop the zone. He's a much better fit for the back line, and will see the vast majority of his time there [more on this below], to the tune of maybe even as much as 90%+. He is not a talker at ALL—just lets his game do the talking. Very confident scorer / shooter, zero conscience, but doesn't seem like a gunner. He's just effective when he does let fly – as evidenced by his offensive efficiency and true shooting staffs from last season. Honestly, we probably couldn't have asked for a better late addition than this guy—he is the real deal. One of the beat writer's covering the team suggested that with the way he's playing so far in early practices, there is a strong chance that not only Lydon but also White could be a lottery pick. If that happens, wow.
Frank Howard: Howard has made the sophomore jump, and is ready to make big contributions this year. I do believe that some of the reports about his offensive capabilities have been exaggerated slightly. He's shooting better, but he's most effective [like Battle] when he uses his big, strong frame to get into the lane and lean on guys as he shoots over them from mid-range. Frank really benefitted from the run to the final four, he's experienced and poised now, and has played on the biggest stage. He worked hard in the weight room in the off-season, and it shows – looks visibly stronger, and plays like it. Will be interesting to see how things work out between him and Gillion [more on this below]. They are waging a helluva battle every day in practice, and Boeheim is really letting them go at it – often in ways that would not be legal in games. Because Howard is bigger / stronger, that often means that he gets the upper hand, but again this is in a setting where players aren't being whistled for fouls. Howard is very vocal this year, he is taking a more noticeably active leadership role, and looks like he is assuming that mantle from Gbinije. Also seems very comfortable with his defensive responsibilities up top on the zone.
John Gillon: Let's get this out of the way—Gillon is 5-9, tops, and probably weighs 165 pounds. He is much smaller than his listed height, but wiry strong. On paper, he'd be a liability at the top of the zone, but he is so unbelievably quick that he gets tons of steals and deflects a lot of passes. Gillon is a jet—with or without the ball. Very fast, and the ball is like a yo-yo in his hands. Like Howard, he's also very talkative out there, and the players on the team seem to really like him. Deep shooting range, and can also shoot it off of the bounce, which is a tough shot for a lot of players to make. He finishes well through contact, and is going to live at the line this year for us – which is good, since he makes like 85% of his free throws. Based upon practice, he is a much more complete offensive player than Howard at each player's respective stage on their developmental curves, so it will be interesting to see if Howard hangs onto the starting role at PG. I could see Howard starting, but it being a lot like Triche in 2010, with the sub coming in at the first whistle. Both of these guys are quality, and it helps both of them to have to play one another in practice, so that they'll be ready for what they encounter during games. Gillon against bigger a bigger guy like Howard, and Howard against a water bug like Gillon.
Tyler Roberson: Didn't have big days when observed, but on a positive note he is finishing shots around the rim with more assertiveness. That isn't inconsequential—he mostly was a dunk / put back guy before, and now he's showing confidence with a low post game where he can score with either hand, hit little hook shots, etc. He is also not hesitating to take that mid-range jumper, but it wasn't falling during the two observed practices. Here's the thing about Roberson, though—he is not going to stand out in these type of settings, because he is unselfish to a fault, never tries to do too much, and is more of a blue collar type while other guys are putting the ball up. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see him have an 12 ppg type of season. On another positive note, he is noticeably bigger / stronger this year.
Tyler Lydon: Kid is having a terrific pre-season. If White isn't the best player on the team, Lydon certainly is. Stroking it from deep, active inside, and he's gotten noticeably stronger—the reports about him being up to 225 pounds are not exaggerated. He isn't putting it on the floor or attacking off of the bounce, so it remains to be seen whether his evolution as a player will go in the direction of a big wing a la Chandler Parsons or if he ultimately rounds out as more of a stretch 4. Right now, that's what he seems to be [which is not a bad thing—at all]. Rebounds like a stud. Contrary to what some hope, he will DEFINITELY play a lot of minutes at the 4 and 5 both this year. He's also assumed more of a leadership role on this team.
Dejuan Coleman: DC2 has lost even more weight, and his mobility looks improved. But the biggest [and most important] two developments are: [1] that he made it through last season uninjured, and [2] that he isn't totally inexperienced anymore. What do both of these things mean in conjunction? That he was able to spend the offseason working on improving his game instead of just trying to get back to square one physically. Coleman runs hard, and finishes well inside with either hand. It is really good that he is tangling with so many different kinds of bigs in practice every day [similar to what I describe with Howard / Gillon above], because he won't be flummoxed when we play some seven footer or guys with quickness. He sees that every day in practice from the guys he competes against. Definitely has the green light with the coaching staff to take that mid-range jumper, and connects with it consistently. Volume rebounder. I don't know what his numbers will be or how many minutes he'll play, but he'll be a steady cog. Kid has an incredible attitude, as well. Terrific teammate who is very well liked by the coaching staff.
Paschal Chukwu: Equally very athletic, and very unrefined offensively. Probably only weighs about 230, which isn't "light" but it is "light" when you stretch that across a 7-2 frame. He does have a wiry strong look, but could stand to add 20 more pounds of good weight. Kid has very good natural agility and can move his feet and block shots [obviously]. Really run the floor. He isn't much of an offensive threat, so forget pounding him the ball inside. He's strictly a put back / lob guy at this stage, but at his height, he'll clean up on lobs if Howard, Battle, and Gillon penetrate like I believe that they will, and opposing bigs rotate out to cut off the penetration. He and Coleman both shoot it very well from the free throw line. He'll be a complimentary player, but could easily steal minutes from Coleman if he shows good defensive instincts and can fill that role. He and Coleman can play hard the whole game, and use their fouls, and unlike last year it won't burn us. Very similar player to Amida Brimah from uconn, if people are looking for a point of comparison, but bigger and a bit more coordinated.
Taurean Thompson: Thompson is a little skinnier than I envisioned, but has a good foundational skill set [not surprising, since he played at St. Anthony's for Bob Hurley earlier in his career]. He's every bit of 6-10, but not a fluid runner, he's just not a gazelle. And surprisingly, he tries to avoid contact when he takes it up inside instead of initiating contact and using it to stabilize his body when he takes the ball up, which limits his effectiveness a bit at this stage. Very advanced left hand, though. Also looks like he's confident shooting the ball from 12 feet. He's kind of a below the rim player, but that worked with Rick Jackson and he had a fine career here—Thompson could be cut from the same cloth. Wouldn't be surprised to see him be a three year starter here, but this will be a learning year. As mentioned above, he'll really benefit from playing against a ridiculously tall player [Chuckwu], a strong player [Coleman], and a guy who can step out and knock down shots [Lydon] every day in practice, for when he is ready to take on a bigger role.
Matthew Moyer: Moyer is really vocal and plays HARD at all times. Really likes to dunk the ball and punish people down low. Active rebounder, but a little bit of a spaz at times. The good news is that he seems to have overcome his injury, but the bad news is that his stamina is off right now and he runs out of gas quickly. The conditioning will improve over the course of the season. Right now, his perimeter game is non-existent, but he seems to have a good sense of how to play. Out of necessity, he's playing some at 3 in the split squad scrimmages, but in my opinion he projects as a versatile 4 more than a 3. He reminds me of a destitute man's Blake Griffin—really tries to dunk the ball hard on people. He's going to be a fan favorite throughout his career.
PREDICTIONS ABOUT HOW THE SEASON MIGHT UNFOLD:
- This team has the talent, depth, and scoring to be a top 5 team from wire-to-wire. They won't start out ranked that high, but they'll quickly climb there, especially if we win the preseason tournament we're in and open some eyes.
- This is the best team we've had since 2012, and this team has similar upside. No doubt in my mind that we can win the whole thing this year. Doing so requires luck and some good matchups in the tourney, but as we saw last year, anything can happen. We have the horses and the firepower to cut down the next in Phoenix.
- JB is almost undoubtedly going to start the following lineup in the upcoming exhibition games: Howard, White, Lydon, Roberson, and Coleman. That is the safe, conservative call. Howard is a proven commodity and someone that JB trusts. White has been promised a start at the 2, and Lydon gets to start. BUT this isn't our most effective lineup—by a longshot. The BEST lineup for this team is Howard [or Gillon], Battle, White, Roberson, and Lydon. I think we're going to see that lineup more than people think, and that Lydon is going to "close" a lot of games at center, just like he did last year, in the interest of getting the most effective scoring unit on the floor. The starting lineup suggested at the top of this paragraph has some ball handling and offensive limitations that impede its effectiveness.
- Gillon and White are JB's first ever fifth year transfers. We will probably be pursuing the market more actively moving forward, and likely seeking to add at least 1 or 2 more this offseason, faced with having to bring in a class as large as 7 players this offseason. It will be interesting to see whether JB starts or sits Gillon, for the public perception factor and the message that it might send to future 5th year transfers.
- I'm not sure that we've had as good of a one-two combo from behind the arc as Lydon and White, certainly not since Wes and Andy. This year's guys are comparably good from distance.
- This is going to be unpopular with some, but the more of White I see, the more convinced I am that he is not going to see much time playing up top in our zone. Gmacfor3 discussed White's lateral mobility / defensive movement issues adequately in his preseason practice posts, as did the Nebraska poster who weighed in on his capabilities, so I won't repeat those arguments there. People can choose to believe whatever they'd like, but when you get right down to brass tax, White shoots like a guard, but has no other demonstrable guard qualities to his game, at least not in our system. He might start at the 2 [especially early in the season], but at the first whistle he'll be shifting to the back line of the zone when Battle comes in the game. And if Battle moves into the starting lineup, then White shifts to 3 permanently on the defensive side of the ball.
- This team has a LOT of answers inside. I don't remember us having such an embarrassment of riches inside, at the two power positions.
- Very interested to see how good offensively Howard is once the lights come on. That could be the big determinant of how much he plays, versus whether he is the token starter who gets pulled for the more offensively nifty Gillon.
- 1 – 10, this is a very gifted team. I would contend that the 2012 team was a bit more top heavy with talent, but this team is going to really be fun to watch.
- Anything less than a top 3 conference finish and a deep postseason run would and should be a major disappointment with this squad we've assembled.
That's it—based upon everything we've seen / heard / had reported this preseason, we're in for a fun year. It would be incredible to see JB go out on a high note, and win another title before he hangs 'em up and retires. I feared that the window closed after we couldn't get over the hump in 2012 / 2013, when Fab got kicked out of school and we played poorly against U of M, but this team is retooled and built for post-season success. JB has a legitimate puncher's chance to make one final run, and this team has the talent / firepower to beat anybody standing in their way.
Doesn't mean things will work out that way, but we've got as legitimate of a chance as anybody. And at this stage of the season, that's all you can ask for.
See you in Phoenix!
Let's Go Orange!!!
