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Message: [QUOTE="pokercuse08, post: 4995802, member: 6535"] I think you're right, so yeah Wake losing EITHER of the two, which helps us a lot. Let me go up and fix that. So that means if we win, we need to hit a three team parlay and one of two needs to be an L for Wake. And two of the three team parlay are favorites, and the other is an upset of a team playing awful right now. So, probably something like a 20% chance, then we need either one to go our way in the Wake games, give that about a 65% chance, puts us around 13% to finish third if we beat Clemson. Back of the napkin math and some rough estimates, but should be in the ballpark. [/QUOTE]