Syracuse Bubble/NET/ACC Rooting Guide 2/28 to 3/9

[pokercuse08]

Thought I'd take a look at our rooting interests right now. Here are the games on our resume that are most likely to move up/down quadrants:

Home Wins (Q1 1-30, Q2 31-75, Q3 76-160)
Virginia Tech 60
NC State 78
Boston Coll 88
Miami 89
LSU 90
Cornell 93

Neutral Wins (Q1 1-50, Q2 51-100)
Oregon 62

Road Wins (Q1 1-75, Q2 76-135)
Pitt 49
NC State 78

Bad Losses
FSU 91 (Q2 31-75)
@ GT 138 (Q2 76-135)

So for NET purposes, we should root for: NC State, Oregon, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Miami, LSU, Cornell, FSU, Pitt

Meanwhile, for ACC standings purposes, we should root against: Virginia, Clemson, Wake Forest, FSU, Pitt

Obviously there's some overlap with FSU and Pitt. Since we need to win out anyway to move up, I'm not too worried about Pitt since we swept them. So I think we probably root for them, and I guess we want FSU to lose one close game and win the rest. But I doubt they're going to move into the top 75, so maybe we just want them to lose.

Last but not least, we're rooting against bubble teams. So I'm going 10-seed or lower (through other at larges) on Bracket Matrix: Texas, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Providence, Gonzaga, Indiana State, Richmond, South Florida, Colorado, Texas A&M, Utah, Mississippi, Villanova, Butler, Drake, St. John's, Cincinnati, Kansas State, Florida Atlantic.

Games underlined are for Net purposes (so margin matters a lot), games in Bold are for bubble purposes (margin matters somewhat), games in italics are for ACC standings purposes. We are rooting for the team named first, unless I made mistakes. Fairly confident I didn't!

Presumably by the time the last weekend rolls around, we can trim the list down. In addition to the obvious ones like NC State and Oregon, we're coincidentally adopting some teams that we'll be rooting for multiple time: DePaul (ruh roh), Tulane, Boise State, Oklahoma, and uggggh UConn and ugggh Georgetown (ruh roh).

Probably chose the style poorly, as the underlines and italics are more important right now but the bold stands out more. Oh well, wasted enough time on this post, not redoing it.

WEDNESDAY 2/28
7pm Marquette vs Providence
8pm Cal at Colorado
8pm Evansville vs Indiana State
8pm Saint Louis vs Richmond
8pm UIC vs Drake
8:30 Asteroid to hit St. John's at Butler (both on bubble)
8:30 South Carolina at Texas A&M
9pm Creighton vs Seton Hall
9pm Boston College vs Virginia
11pm Oregon vs Oregon State

THURSDAY 2/29
11pm San Francisco vs Gonzaga

FRIDAY 3/1
8pm Cornell @ Penn
10:30 Fresno State at Nevada

SATURDAY 3/2
12pm Asteroid to hit Villanova at Providence (both on bubble)
12pm DePaul vs Butler
12pm Tulane at Florida Atlantic
12pm Georgia Tech vs Florida St
2pm Oregon @ Arizona
2pm Oklahoma State at Texas
3:30pm LSU at Vandy
4pm NC State @ North Carolina
4pm Charlotte vs South Florida
5:30 Virginia Tech vs Wake Forest
6pm VCU at Richmond
6pm Georgia vs Texas A&M
6pm Boston College vs Pitt (most likely, but we don't want Pitt to drop too far - and a BC win vs UVA may get them on the right side of the line for us already)
7pm Cornell @ Princeton
7pm Asteroid to hit Kansas State at Cincinnati (both on bubble)
8pm Boise State vs New Mexico
8pm SYRACUSE @ Louisville
10pm St. Mary's vs Gonzaga

SUNDAY 3/3
12pm UConn vs Seton Hall
3:30 Bradley at Drake
4pm Murray State at Indiana State
9pm Stanford at Colorado

MONDAY 3/4
7pm NC State vs Duke
9pm Baylor vs Texas

TUESDAY 3/5
7pm Georgetown vs Providence
7pm Tulane at South Florida
7pm SYRACUSE @ Clemson
8pm Oklahoma vs Cincinnati
8pm Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest
9pm Kansas vs Kansas State
9pm TBD FSU/Pitt - we're probably going to have a rooting interest but it'll be dependent on results between now and then. (Is Pitt safely top 75? If so, can FSU get to top 75? Either need to lose for ACC standings?)
9pm DePaul vs St. John's
11 Boise State vs Nevada
TBD (mid-major conference tournament games)

WEDNESDAY 3/6
6:30pm Asteroid to Hit Villanova at Seton Hall (both on bubble, so we'll see what happens between now and then)
7pm Saint Joseph's at Richmond
7pm Boston College @ Miami (Could change based on results, but right now likely to be BC fans on 3/6)
7pm LSU @ Arkansas
7:30pm Xavier at Butler
8pm North Texas vs Florida Atlantic
9pm Mississippi State at Texas A&M
10:30 Fresno State at New Mexico
TBD (mid-major conference tournament games)

THURSDAY 3/7
9pm Oregon vs Colorado
TBD (mid-major conference tournament games)

FRIDAY 3/8
TBD (mid-major conference tournament games)

SATURDAY 3/9
12pm Memphis at Florida Atlantic
12pm Georgetown at St. John's
2pm West Virginia at Cincinnati
2pm Iowa State at Kansas State
2pm Oklahoma at Texas
2pm Ole Miss vs Texas A&M
2pm Cornell @ Columbia
2:30pm Creighton at Villanova
3pm Tulsa vs South Florida
4pm TBD Miami/FSU (depends on results between now and then)
5pm Oregon State vs Colorado
5:30 Boston College @ Louisville
6pm TBD Clemson/Wake (Hopefully we beat Clemson and want them to move up, but if we win out we may have a shot at 4th and need a certain outcome here)
7pm Oregon vs Utah
7:45 North Carolina State at Pitt (Almost certainly, unless NC State does great til then and Pitt struggles)
8:00 UConn at Providence
8:30 Utah State vs New Mexico
8:00 Georgia Tech at Virginia
8:30 DePaul at Seton Hall
8:30pm LSU vs Missouri
10:30pm UNLV at Nevada

 

[orangenauburn]

Some big ones tonight

WEDNESDAY 2/28
7pm Marquette vs Providence. Root for Marquette

8pm Cal at Colorado. Be a pal Cal

8pm Evansville vs Indiana State. We want Evansville

8pm Saint Louis vs Richmond. Bilikens please.

8pm UIC vs Drake. UIC please.

8:30 Asteroid to hit St. John's at Butler (both on bubble). I think we want Butler to stem St Johns momentum in media circles.

8:30 South Carolina at Texas A&M. South Carolina please

9pm Creighton vs Seton Hall. Creighton please

9pm Boston College vs Virginia. Virginia please

11pm Oregon vs Oregon State. Oregon please

 

[PauliePeppas]

Providence might lose by 160, good start

 

[tptcuse]

I love these types of threads. Dummies like me appreciate the Cliff's Notes version of who to root for.

 

[blust2i3d4]

Some big ones tonight



9pm Boston College vs Virginia. Virginia please

11pm Oregon vs Oregon State. Oregon please

Virginia could easily have two more losses. If Pitt and SU win out, then at 12-8, we win the tie breaker among Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia. We wouild get the fourth seed on ACC tournament. I am rooting for BC.

 

[Trueblue25]

Thank you so much for doing this

 

[Red2003]

good post. St. John’s sucks. Saying they’re a bubble team is a disgrace to bubbles

 

[Red2003]

Virginia could easily have two more losses. If Pitt and SU win out, then at 12-8, we win the tie breaker among Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia. We wouild get the fourth seed on ACC tournament. I am rooting for BC.

I just said the same on another thread. That Virginia team hasn’t scores over 50 points in a few games. A 20 win UVA team is only a 1.5 point favorite over BC. Thats nuts.

 

[jncuse]

Thought I'd take a look at our rooting interests right now. Here are the games on our resume that are most likely to move up/down quadrants:

Home Wins (Q1 1-30, Q2 31-75, Q3 76-160)
Virginia Tech 60
NC State 78
Boston Coll 88
Miami 89
LSU 90
Cornell 93

Neutral Wins (Q1 1-50, Q2 51-100)
Oregon 62

Road Wins (Q1 1-75, Q2 76-135)
Pitt 49
NC State 78

Bad Losses
FSU 91 (Q2 31-75)
@ GT 138 (Q2 76-135)

Good analysis and review of the games.

Most of those teams though seem to be largely set in to their quadrant (10 or more) or outright locked (like Pitt, Cornell, FSU.. could move but it will be tough. I'd say the two to really focus on are NC St and Georgia Tech, perhaps that will change but it will really be tough for others to move up to add value to our metrics.

 

[pokercuse08]

9pm Boston College vs Virginia. Virginia please

Why would we root for Virginia? We have two reasons to root the other way - boost BC's NET to add a Q2 win (88 -> 75 gets us there), and we could still technically pass UVA in the conference standings.

good post. St. John’s sucks. Saying they’re a bubble team is a disgrace to bubbles

Thank you. I don't think St. John's or Villanova belong on the bubble, but I wanted to remove my bias from this so I just went by Bracket Matrix. Seemed like the most non-biased way to go.

 

[orangenauburn]

Why would we root for Virginia? We have two reasons to root the other way - boost BC's NET to add a Q2 win (88 -> 75 gets us there), and we could still technically pass UVA in the conference standings.



Thank you. I don't think St. John's or Villanova belong on the bubble, but I wanted to remove my bias from this so I just went by Bracket Matrix. Seemed like the most non-biased way to go.

I hate BC.

I think Virginia is safe - 47 net with no Q3/4 losses, and 6-8 in Q1/2

 

[pokercuse08]

Good analysis and review of the games.

Most of those teams though seem to be largely set in to their quadrant (10 or more) or outright locked (like Pitt, Cornell, FSU.. could move but it will be tough. I'd say the two to really focus on are NC St and Georgia Tech, perhaps that will change but it will really be tough for others to move up to add value to our metrics.

Thanks. The reason I included Pitt is partially to check back on them because in some cases we'll be rooting against them, and depending on those outcomes with regard to margin, if we get our way we may need to flip to rooting for them at the end. Unlikely, but possible.

I definitely agree NC State and Georgia Tech are the ones to focus on. They only need to move a tad and can help us quite a bit. Those two likely go down to the wire, and on into the ACCT. Could be a funny spot where we're actually rooting for them to lose close in the ACCT so they cover the margin and eliminate the chance of more movement.

But all that said, Oregon could be a big one as well (12 spots to climb to become Q1), and we have five teams in that 88-93 range where moving up to 75 or better helps us. Decent chance one or two of those six gives us a sweat that last weekend, at least.

The plan is to update this every few days and narrow down the list going forward.

 

[jncuse]

Thank you. I don't think St. John's or Villanova belong on the bubble, but I wanted to remove my bias from this so I just went by Bracket Matrix. Seemed like the most non-biased way to go.

Yep - when I would do the updates, I would use the Bracket Matrix -- although I would try to throw out the old ones.

It's the easiest and probably the most accurate way to go. Not perfect, but better than making assumptions.

 

[pokercuse08]

I hate BC.

I think Virginia is safe - 47 net with no Q3/4 losses, and 6-8 in Q1/2

Yeah, this isn't about Virginia being on the bubble. If they lose out and we win out, we pass them in the ACC standings. Also, if BC moves up from 88 to 75 in the NET, we pick up a Q2 win.

 

[pokercuse08]

Yep - when I would do the updates, I would use the Bracket Matrix -- although I would try to throw out the old ones.

It's the easiest and probably the most accurate way to go. Not perfect, but better than making assumptions.

Were you doing this someplace else and I stepped on your toes? If so, let me know, no point in both doing the work and I didn't mean to step on anyone!

 

[jncuse]

Were you doing this someplace else and I stepped on your toes? If so, let me know, no point in both doing the work and I didn't mean to step on anyone!

I used to do something, and was planning to do something after (if) we beat Louisville. That Louisville game (which will have a line of around +5 for us) isn't a gimme to me.

But I have no problem deferring at all as you are showing more ambition than I was! (I was looking at old posts from 2021 and while I did it a lot from 2016-2019, I didn't do much that year). I'll find a post of a format that I liked, and leave it to you to decide if you want to run something similar.

Typically I would try to do a "Viewing Guide" on Monday/Tuesday, for the Monday-Thursday games, and then one on Friday/Sat Morn for the weekend games.

 

[20plus]

Some big ones tonight

WEDNESDAY 2/28
7pm Marquette vs Providence. Root for Marquette

8pm Cal at Colorado. Be a pal Cal

8pm Evansville vs Indiana State. We want Evansville

8pm Saint Louis vs Richmond. Bilikens please.

8pm UIC vs Drake. UIC please.

8:30 Asteroid to hit St. John's at Butler (both on bubble). I think we want Butler to stem St Johns momentum in media circles.

8:30 South Carolina at Texas A&M. South Carolina please

9pm Creighton vs Seton Hall. Creighton please

9pm Boston College vs Virginia. Virginia please

11pm Oregon vs Oregon State. Oregon please

We want Virginia to lose

 

[Bulldog04]

I was rooting for Texas last night thinking they had no chance to make tourney. 18-10 and in 9th place in their conference and Andy Katz has them as 8 seed in his bracket. Just when I couldn’t like him any less

 

[jncuse]

I was rooting for Texas last night thinking they had no chance to make tourney. 18-10 and in 9th place in their conference and Andy Katz has them as 8 seed in his bracket. Just when I couldn’t like him any less

Always look at bracket matrix if you are trying to understand where a team generally stands. Its a pretty good tool in that regard - whether you disagree with it or not.

Texas is getting the boost from playing in a conference that did "extremely well" (quote marks intended) in OOC, so it now has 5 Q1 wins, and only 1 bad loss. That will almost always get you in.

As a reminder Syracuse got in with an 8-10 record, tied for 10th in the ACC in 2018. That's the benefit of playing in a conference that doesn't play like **** in November and December.

 

[Bulldog04]

Always look at bracket matrix if you are trying to understand where a team generally stands. Its a pretty good tool in that regard - whether you disagree with it or not.

Texas is getting the boost from playing in a conference that did "extremely well" (quote marks intended) in OOC, so it now has 5 Q1 wins, and only 1 bad loss. That will almost always get you in.

As a reminder Syracuse got in with an 8-10 record, tied for 10th in the ACC in 2018. That's the benefit of playing in a conference that doesn't play like **** in November and December.

Thanks for that reply. I appreciate it

 

[Cuse181]

So far some good results

 

[pokercuse08]

WEDNESDAY 2/28
W 7pm Marquette 91 vs Providence 69
L 8pm Cal 78 at Colorado 88
L 8pm Evansville 67 vs Indiana State 85
L 8pm Saint Louis 64 vs Richmond 80
L 8pm UIC 105 vs Drake 107 (OT)
N 8:30 Asteroid to hit St. John's 82 at Butler 59 (both on bubble)
W 8:30 South Carolina 70 at Texas A&M 68
W 9pm Creighton 85 vs Seton Hall 64
L 9pm Boston College 68 vs Virginia 72
W 11pm Oregon 78 vs Oregon State 71

We went 4-5, not awful, considering the major lift that some of those were. Unfortunately, Oregon didn't win by enough and fell from 62nd to 63rd in NET. Boston College fell from 88 to 91.

THURSDAY 2/29
11pm San Francisco vs Gonzaga

Quiet night tonight. Go Dons! 3.5 to 4 point underdogs.

 

[20plus]

I hate BC.

I think Virginia is safe - 47 net with no Q3/4 losses, and 6-8 in Q1/2

If you think Virginia is safe, you’re mistaken

 

[orangenauburn]

If you think Virginia is safe, you’re mistaken

21 wins, of which 7 are Q1/2 and a net of 46, RPI of 44

They are in

 

[jdubs30]

If you think Virginia is safe, you’re mistaken

If you don’t think UVA is safe, we have no shot at getting in