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Message: [QUOTE="pokercuse08, post: 4996409, member: 6535"] We're in a very weird situation. Assuming we win at Clemson, I think we're either in already or need to make, if not win, the ACCT Final. I'm being optimistic and hoping that the win at Clemson punches our ticket. But I don't think there's much in between. Basically, if the committee decides NET is just one of the metrics and not the end all be all, we should be in with a win at Clemson, simple as that. But if they decide that NET is the end all be all, then we probably need to move up like 20+ spots in NET. A narrow win at Clemson might only move us up four or five spots, [I]maybe [/I]we get as high as like 75th, but that's a stretch. Then say we get the 4-seed in the ACC, we win close against a team like Pitt. Shoot, let's have a ball, let's say we win by 10. I calculate that would move us up another... 3-4 spots. So maybe we're in the low 70s. Now we edge out Carolina, that might only move us up another... 3-4 spots. So now we're in the high 60s, and if we lose the championship game by a reasonable margin, we stay there. Are we in on NET in the high 60s? Probably not. If my math is right, to move up to 60th in KenPom across four games, we need to beat the efficiency margin by a whopping 76 points. Just beating Clemson on the road or UNC/Duke on a neutral floor is like a 10-point win against the margin, but we need to average like 20 point wins against the margin. On the other hand, if NET is just one of the metrics, I'd argue most of the online brackets are trash and we just need one more Q1 win to be right on the bubble and two to be a near lock, and it doesn't matter if they come @ Clemson or in the ACCT. People aren't used to situations where it's one extreme or the other, and totally unknown which. It's like Schrodinger's Bracket. [/QUOTE]

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