Syracuse Michigan Matchup

[Lawrinson14]

Like the Indiana game, I find the matchup of these two teams fascinating.

When Syracuse is on Defense:

After watching a couple of Michigan games it seems like their offense is predicated on Trey Burke and Co driving into the lane and either taking a jumper or dishing to an open shooter. As we have seen so far this tournament, such dribble penetration has been nonexistent against us. Especially against smaller guards (Burke only 6ft.) I am not sure their guards have the speed of the UCONN guards, who were seemingly the only ones all year to be able to finagle their way into the paint. Not Even Louisville's guards could do major damage against us for the majority of the 3 games we played them.

Michigan also seems to have the green light from the 3 pt line, bombing away tons and tons of threes. I guess having 4 perimeter players on the court at the same time is responsible for this style of play. As we have seen in the past, this strategy can work to the opponents advantage if they get hot, but more often than not we get out on shooters and limit the amount of good looks and subsequently, makes.

Which takes me to McGarry. When Michigan misses, McGarry is always under neath doing the dirty work. He is an excellent rebounder and can finish with both hands. My question is, do they dare put him at the foul line? I'm not sure he is the guy they want shooting that 15 ft jumper or making key passing decisions. As we saw with Indiana, even Zeller was dumbfounded when he got the ball at the free throw line in the teeth of the zone.

I'm thinking they put Hardaway/Robinson at the Free-throw line. I don't think they will put Tskouskis (sp?) there because that takes away one of their key 3 pt threats. Hardaway and Robinson are very good players, but they are also young and certainly has not seen a zone like that of Syracuse. I'm thinking we see a lot of high low action with Hardaway/Robinson trying to lure out Keita/Christmas to the freethow line than dumping it down to McGarry.

When Syracuse is on Offense:

This to me is even more interesting. Michigan goes 6-10, 6-6, 6-6, 6-6, 6-0.

If Trey Burke guards MCW, Michael will have 6 inches on him and will be able to get his shot off like he has all tournament long. If Burke guards Brandon, Brandon will have 4 inches and roughly 50 lbs on him, also allowing Brandon to seemingly get the rim at will. Moreso than I can ever recall, Coach B is looking to take advantage of these mismatches this tournament. Hell, we came out in the Indiana game and saw Brandon and Mike posting up their defenders. We hadn't seen that all year.

Also, Tskouskis will be a liability for them on the defensive end. At 6-6 he will have to guard either CJ or James. If he guards CJ, CJ will have a field day under neath doing his little lefty shake and bake. And James should be licking his chops going up against a guy like Tskouskis. After seeing Oladipo and then Marquette's clutch and grab in your face D, James should be able to get shots off all night. Whether he makes them is another story.

Also worth noting is that Michigan only really plays 5 guys. Here are their minutes played this season according to ESPN. Notice the drop after the top 5.

Trey Burke 1314
Tim Hardaway Jr. 1250
Glenn Robinson III 1239
Nik Stauskas 1153
Mitch McGary 704
Jordan Morgan 560
Caris LeVert 323

That's all I got. As you all can probably tell, I cannot wait for this game to be played.

 

[2-3zone]

When i'm looking at another team I always look for who will they put at the free throw line- that player has to be triple threat (shoot from 15, drive to the basket and pass to wing shooters) I don't see McGary being that player, I think it will be Hardaway with GRIII and Stauskas as the wing shooters and McGary on the baseline

 

[CorduroyG]

2 big keys in our favor:

1 - Burke is small. I think he's gonna have a tough time against our guards. you contain Burke you beat Michigan. Kansas was in control that entire game until Burke went off the last few minutes.

2 - the youth of Michigan. none of them have ever seen a zone like ours this year. and on the biggest stage in college basketball i could see them having that deer in the headlights look.

I love this matchup. and I haven't even mentioned Michigan's average defense, I think we score 70+

 

[kingtidge]

2 big keys in our favor:

1 - Burke is small. I think he's gonna have a tough time against our guards. you contain Burke you beat Michigan. Kansas was in control that entire game until Burke went off the last few minutes.

2 - the youth of Michigan. none of them have ever seen a zone like ours this year. and on the biggest stage in college basketball i could see them having that deer in the headlights look.

I love this matchup. and I haven't even mentioned Michigan's average defense, I think we score 70+

Agreed... however, the way the zone is playing right now, I think Michigan MUST do the following:

• Get out of the gates early and score against it w/o turning the ball over...

Early confidence is key...

We get some early turnovers on errant passes in the zonal gaps with our length (passes that would work against just about any other team and D), we see what happens... Guards get tentative and inefficient, questioning what is a good or bad pass... and that's when we pull at the stitching and the yarn comes flying off...

That said, the Wolverines have the lowest turnover ratio in the country... which is very impressive for such a young team.

The question is can they keep that success against our zone?

It's a phenomenal matchup!

 

[4evaOrange]

I'm worried. I wanted Florida. Burke, GR3, Hardaway, and Stauskas scare me. Although we heard this all about IU as well with their shooting, and we stopped that, what did they shoot 3-15 I think? Marq didn't shoot much better right...?

This game comes down to how well we well we disrupt, and defend Burke. Force him into some early game turnovers. Keep the hands moving in the passing lanes. DEFEND THE 3 POINT LINE!

 

[Marsh01]

We need to score and play better offensively in order to win. Out defense will be there. We need more production out of our centers offensively as well. The production was down in the regionals and we need something more from them.

Michigan will score points. We need to keep pace and put the ball in the hoop. If we do we will be playing for the title monday night.


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[HoustonCuse]

The question is how our team reacts if Michigan starts out hot and gets a lead. We've been comfortable with basically a 10 point lead the whole tournament. The zone is becoming a mental issue: if we force a few turnovers or bad shots right away then it will really get into their heads. But if they can move the ball and get a few makes immediately, it could get in our heads that they've "figured out the zone". Eventually, just by statistics, somebody will hit a few threes (contested or not).

 

[TheCusian]

We need to score and play better offensively in order to win. Out defense will be there. We need more production out of our centers offensively as well. The production was down in the regionals and we need something more from them.

Michigan will score points. We need to keep pace and put the ball in the hoop. If we do we will be playing for the title monday night.


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I think if you look at this tourney and our defense - it's a better bet to believe they won't score points. Certainly not as many as they have been. I'll take our defense this tourney vs. their offense this tourney every day, all day.

I think the question is their defense vs our offense. And that's where we've been inconsistent. If they score 20 points less than they have, but we hit a dry spell and force turnovers? That's when it gets tight. Otherwise, I think we stymy them and hit enough shots to win by 10.

 

[ImperialOrange]

The question is how our team reacts if Michigan starts out hot and gets a lead. We've been comfortable with basically a 10 point lead the whole tournament. The zone is becoming a mental issue: if we force a few turnovers or bad shots right away then it will really get into their heads. But if they can move the ball and get a few makes immediately, it could get in our heads that they've "figured out the zone". Eventually, just by statistics, somebody will hit a few threes (contested or not).

I'm terrified of Spike Albrecht nailing a few 25 footers. 5'11 Freshman that gets very few minutes but shoots the 3 ball well is exactly the recipe for a career day vs SU... or at least would be if he played on a BE team.

 

[HoustonCuse]

I'll tell you what though, thank god their guy went nuts from three yesterday. He hit 5 out of his 6 shots from the corner. The exact spot where the zone can give up shots. He was like 2 - 16 before that. He will certainly have our attention in the corner now.

 

[ImperialOrange]

I'll tell you what though, thank god their guy went nuts from three yesterday. He hit 5 out of his 6 shots from the corner. The exact spot where the zone can give up shots. He was like 2 - 16 before that. He will certainly have our attention in the corner now.

Most years yes but this year we've closed well in the corners with CJ and Southerland. I liked CJ's mini Hak block vs Marquette.

 

[Lawrinson14]

If any Michigan fans are lurking, please give us your perspective on the game.

 

[Upstate]

Keita needs to continue to get into great position defending the post. McGary kinda just bulls ahead and gets to the hoop. As long as Baye's moving like he normally does, I'd like to see him try to get some calls early on on McGary, since Mitch has been great for them this tourney.

 

[Lawrinson14]

Another thing I noticed watching Michigan...McGary has a tendency to play below the rim. Just ask Cody Zeller about what our forwards/centers do to players who play under the rim.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Keita needs to continue to get into great position defending the post. McGary kinda just bulls ahead and gets to the hoop. As long as Baye's moving like he normally does, I'd like to see him try to get some calls early on on McGary, since Mitch has been great for them this tourney.

I thought McGary moved well laterally vs Kansas. My curiousity lies in wether he can do the same starting 15 feet from the hoop vs 6. I can see him trying to feed to baselines and having the ball end up in the hands of Southerland and/or CJ instead.

 

[ORRange]

We better key on Robinson and Staukas. Michigan was 2-6 verse teams with a winning Big Ten record in conference play. Those two players shot 35.7 fg% and 26% from 3 in the six losses and combined for only 13pts/game. They averaged 22.5 pts/game on 51 fg% for the year. The better BiG teams seemed to contain those two players with success.

 

[KingOtis]

Also worth noting is that Michigan only really plays 5 guys. Here are their minutes played this season according to ESPN. Notice the drop after the top 5.

Trey Burke 1314
Tim Hardaway Jr. 1250
Glenn Robinson III 1239
Nik Stauskas 1153
Mitch McGary 704
Jordan Morgan 560
Caris LeVert 323

I think Spike Albrecht is the only bench player getting significant PT at this point. Morgan used to start, but now he doesn't play that much because of McGary.

 

[KingOtis]

BTW, Stauskas had been ice cold before yesterday. That might have continued had the Florida defenders bothered with guarding him. We will contest his shots.

 

[Orangezoo]

Agreed... however, the way the zone is playing right now, I think Michigan MUST do the following:

• Get out of the gates early and score against it w/o turning the ball over...

This - we have been jumping on teams early while they try and solve the zone. We need to continue to do this against the Wolverines. Once they are forced to push the tempo to score we will be in a good spot. I think we can also get McGary in foul trouble with MCW's ability to get in the lane and find Rak/Baye/CJ to finish. Michigan has size but not post defenders. CJ and even James cutting on the baseline should be able to score.

 

[jordoo]

I think JB will leave McGary, Robinson and Morgan alone if they are placed in the middle. Yes we will come out on them but nothing specific. They will have to show they can beat us from there, same as if they get the ball down low. We will concentrate on stopping penetration and staying out on their shooters to start the game. I think that Hardaway could hurt us a bit slashing but that's harder to do against MCW and Brandon that it is most years against our 2-3. I know everyone says we need to control Burke but I would not be shocked if we let him take all the two point jumpers he wants to off the dribble. 3's no but 2's are better than letting him get to the basket. When Florida first went to the zone UM had some pretty bad turnovers. Florida's zone sucked and was really small however so they adjusted and were able to drive it and hit the wing and corner for open 3's which killed Florida. It was a great thing to happen for us, because we all know our zone is much different. If they make enough contested 3's they may then be able to exploit some other things.

They have plenty of issues against us on defense. Much like IU the match ups are good for us all over and they have no one like Olidepo to even take one guy away. We are due for a good shooting game and they will have to spend all game adjusting on pick n roll if they are in man or getting hammered by bigger athletes from the baseline if they use the 1-3-1 which they don't seem to do a lot of when I have watched them. CJ and James will have smaller 6-6 guys on them and their bigs are not shot blockers.

I think unless they simply shoot lights out or we really really blow on offense we win this one. This could be very ugly if it starts out like the last two games as UM is young and could get very frustrated jacking bad 3's leading to run outs when you're already behind is death against us.

 

[Fly Rodder]

There was an interesting factoid that Luke Winn posted back in February that Glen Robinson III has tends to disappear against the better teams he played against:

Michigan freshman Glenn Robinson III has made a habit of destroying lesser Big Ten teams while no-showing against the conference's elites...

(I wonder if this trend will carry over into the NCAA tournament, with Robinson having a huge performance in the 1-vs.-16 or 2-vs.-15 game, only to assume a small role in later rounds.)

Here is GR III's game logs from the NCAA Tournament:
Vs SDSU - 37 min - 21 pts - .889 FG% - 6 Reb
Vs VCU - 33 min - 14 pts - .700 FG% - 9 Reb
Vs KU - 42 min - 13 pts - .433 FG% - 8 Reb
Vs UF - 34 min - 6 pts - .429 FG% - 2 Reb

Granted, he didn't need to much against the Gators since Stauskas was going off, but it seems to reinforce a trend that GRIII can play small when he faces a good defense.

 

[jordoo]

I really like our forwards in this one. I think they have a hard time matching up with James and CJ.

 

[All4SU]

I'm terrified of Spike Albrecht nailing a few 25 footers. 5'11 Freshman that gets very few minutes but shoots the 3 ball well is exactly the recipe for a career day vs SU... or at least would be if he played on a BE team.

If Albrecht comes in, we take him right to the rim ever time down.

 

[All4SU]

I wonder if Michigan might throw a box and 1 on us at all, with the one being on MCW.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

FWIW, my co-worker that's a Wolverines fan is convinced we're going to blow them out. He has zero confidence in them accomplishing anything on offense, and is convinced Southerland is going to score 30+.