Syracuse NIL Situation

[35kcuse]

Wanted to make a point in regards to our transfer portal season so far…

I know for a fact we had 8 million dollars in NIL money last year. Or at least… somewhere around that number.

Evan Miya research shows a 65% increase in transfer portal buying price this year. Talked to a couple different people from all walks of cbb. Unanimous that this is good and accurate work.

Follow me for a second. 8 million with 65% increase = 13.25 million. This means that to match what we had last year relative to this years market, we need 13+. Don’t think we have that folks unless I’m really really missing something.

Two thoughts. A) We are weaker than we thought NIL wise before the portal opened. No freak-outs please! Gerry is going to have this team punching above their weight to meet expectations. B) Man how did we not sniff the tournament last year .

 

[35kcuse]

One more point.

65% increase per year isn’t sustainable right? Right?

For Syracuse and many many others, absolutely.

But here’s my “Margin Call” moment. You know who it is sustainable for?

Michigan- funded by Larry Ellison among many other stupidly rich folks

Arkansas, Louisville, etc- backed by corporations.

You think the market is going to correct itself, but it’s not. Because… those schools are essentially in competition with each other writing blank checks. And everybody else is sprinting to catch up year after year.

This is where I see this thing ending badly. This model survives now.. but 10, 15, 20 years from now the only ones surviving will be those select schools who have substantially more money to pull from. Talking billions vs millions here hypothetically.

Curious what others thoughts are on this.

 

[rrlbees]

Wanted to make a point in regards to our transfer portal season so far…

I know for a fact we had 8 million dollars in NIL money last year. Or at least… somewhere around that number.

Evan Miya research shows a 65% increase in transfer portal buying price this year. Talked to a couple different people from all walks of cbb. Unanimous that this is good and accurate work.

Follow me for a second. 8 million with 65% increase = 13.25 million. This means that to match what we had last year relative to this years market, we need 13+. Don’t think we have that folks unless I’m really really missing something.

Two thoughts. A) We are weaker than we thought NIL wise before the portal opened. No freak-outs please! Gerry is going to have this team punching above their weight to meet expectations. B) Man how did we not sniff the tournament last year .

i believe the $8-9m was nil+rev share. nil alone was in the $4.5-5 range.

 

[hoopsupstate]

Wanted to make a point in regards to our transfer portal season so far…

I know for a fact we had 8 million dollars in NIL money last year. Or at least… somewhere around that number.

Evan Miya research shows a 65% increase in transfer portal buying price this year. Talked to a couple different people from all walks of cbb. Unanimous that this is good and accurate work.

Follow me for a second. 8 million with 65% increase = 13.25 million. This means that to match what we had last year relative to this years market, we need 13+. Don’t think we have that folks unless I’m really really missing something.

Two thoughts. A) We are weaker than we thought NIL wise before the portal opened. No freak-outs please! Gerry is going to have this team punching above their weight to meet expectations. B) Man how did we not sniff the tournament last year .

I think the centers were more costly, but wings not as much.

 

[Orangezoo]

A few things-

1- Accuracy of the numbers is poor given there is no consistency in terms of how this information is collected. If this were the hardline truth you would have far fewer of the top 100 transfers off the board.

2- This is primarily the top 5-10 centers that are driving the suggested increase and thus you have both position and then program skewing this not the market as a whole which makes that number very unlikely. This incentivizes the agents and schools that participate in the largest deals to push the perception of the market beyond what it is. Again without a reporting mechanism and many kids and schools that aren’t at the top 1 pct of the market to be silent on where the numbers are

3- The market stalls and weakens pretty quickly once the biggest names come off the board and agents no longer have all the leverage so even any hint of truth on the increase is temporary.

4- It’s correct it can’t persist. Louisville won’t be able to spend this kind of money every year for example especially if they don’t win. Even with corporate backing if this year they among others don’t make the FF or win it all.. that becomes a poor ROI and that won’t fly for long.

5- If we were in a poor position , we wouldn’t have the roster we do so far with room to finish it out strong.

 

[BEGood]

One more point.

65% increase per year isn’t sustainable right? Right?

For Syracuse and many many others, absolutely.

But here’s my “Margin Call” moment. You know who it is sustainable for?

Michigan- funded by Larry Ellison among many other stupidly rich folks

Arkansas, Louisville, etc- backed by corporations.

You think the market is going to correct itself, but it’s not. Because… those schools are essentially in competition with each other writing blank checks. And everybody else is sprinting to catch up year after year.

This is where I see this thing ending badly. This model survives now.. but 10, 15, 20 years from now the only ones surviving will be those select schools who have substantially more money to pull from. Talking billions vs millions here hypothetically.

Curious what others thoughts are on this.

Which what you just explained isn’t sustainable. Fans will be over the sport if it’s just a select few winning year after year.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I’m a bit sick of the complaining about this. The Big12 gets by just fine with schools having similar budgets to ours. There’s enough good players to go around where coaching matters. Just because Louisville signed a few guys for top dollar doesn’t mean guarantee them anything. The stats say a couple of them are just average college players as it is.

 

[cusefan88]

You can have a huge budget but if your players don't fit, don't care, and give up easily it won't matter.

You need coaching consistency and player buy-in from Day 1.

 

[grepal]

A huge budget helps. UCONN gave Mullens 3.5 million to come back. Could SU do that and keep the talent UCOPNN is bringing in. It is getting to be like 5 to 10 teams are at the Dodgers level and everybody else is San Francisco.

 

[Cusefan0307]

A huge budget helps. UCONN gave Mullens 3.5 million to come back. Could SU do that and keep the talent UCOPNN is bringing in. It is getting to be like 5 to 10 teams are at the Dodgers level and everybody else is San Francisco.

UConn still operates with a budget. Giving Mullens that money is why they couldn't get Freeman. With Ball out all of next year they aren't guaranteed anything as they have some holes, but I'm sure they'll win because Hurley coaches circles around everyone else in college not named Dusty May or Todd Golden.

 

[Brooky03]

The only thing I’m confident in is that the NIL landscape will be completely different 10 years from now (more like 2 years from now).

The rich dudes and corporations don’t get any ROI for their NIL donations. Yeah, a billionaire isn’t going to miss a few million a year but then again they didn’t become billionaires by just burning cash. It’s a fun entertainment expense for them right now. Maybe that will continue, maybe it will get boring.

I completely expect the NCAA to switch to an employee model sooner than later. That means contracts, salary caps, regulated free agency, etc. Does that completely negate NIL shenanigans? No. But like pro leagues have rules against circumventing salary cap restrictions with side deals, they could police NIL deals with alums (and related corps).

 

[Sbucketball]

I’m a bit sick of the complaining about this. The Big12 gets by just fine with schools having similar budgets to ours. There’s enough good players to go around where coaching matters. Just because Louisville signed a few guys for top dollar doesn’t mean guarantee them anything. The stats say a couple of them are just average college players as it is.

We can't get complacent. We need both: elite coaching, while always trying to scratch and claw our way to the top tier of NIL.

Our NIL situation is not an excuse for the piss-poor product we've been watching. But that doesn't mean we should stop putting pressure on getting more NIL to be competitive with the programs we once thought were in our weight class.

Get one and were back in the tournament. Get both and we're an annual contender.

 

[Cusefan0307]

We can't get complacent. We need both: elite coaching, while always trying to scratch and claw our way to the top tier of NIL.

Our NIL situation is not an excuse for the piss-poor product we've been watching. But that doesn't mean we should stop putting pressure on getting more NIL to be competitive with the programs we once thought were in our weight class.

Get one and were back in the tournament. Get both and we're an annual contender.

I agree we need more money, but the situation isn't as dire as some say and ends up being a complaint for why we suck each year. Again, we probably had a more expensive roster than Iowa State last year when we got completely boat raced by them. Having more money makes things easier, but it won't solve all your problems.

 

[Sbucketball]

I agree we need more money, but the situation isn't as dire as some say and ends up being a complaint for why we suck each year. Again, we probably had a more expensive roster than Iowa State last year when we got completely boat raced by them. Having more money makes things easier, but it won't solve all your problems.

I agree with you. Coaching and behind-the-scenes stuff is our main issue. NIL should always be near the top of the list of priorities too, it's just not #1 right now.