Syracuse opens up -3.5

[PauliePeppas]

kinda surprised but Vegas knows right?

 

[cuse10]

Don't buy it all unless VA Tech will have difficulty shooting because they aren't adjusted to the cavernous Dome. Tyus and Oshae need to play better than they have as of late.

 

[hoopsupstate]

I am surprised with that line. I’m hoping our length will cause them some problems. We have to score 20 points or more from offensive rebounds. Chukwu has to dominate the inside on defense so our wings can get out and cover the three.

 

[skurey]

Can anyone place a bet for me?

 

[MarketCuse]

kinda surprised but Vegas knows right?

Not much respect for our SOS differential I think vegas got this one wrong and we pull away by 11-13. If we had no rest then by all means 3.5 but we should be well rested, unlike last week.

 

[blust2i3d4]

kinda surprised but Vegas knows right?

Virginia Tech has very low RPI. If we lost to them at home, it would be a disaster. Our RPI will get killed.

 

[MarketCuse]

Virginia Tech has very low RPI. If we lost to them at home, it would be a disaster. Our RPI will get killed.

Nope they are in the 70's

 

[MarketCuse]

Not much respect for our SOS differential I think vegas got this one wrong and we pull away by 11-13. If we had no rest then by all means 3.5 but we should be well rested, unlike last week.

FYI:
SU SOS = 14
VaTech SOS = 242

 

[jncuse]

FYI:
SU SOS = 14
VaTech SOS = 242

RPI and RPI SOS is really bad for betting. It is not a basis for lines and really it such a bad metric that it should never be used to analyze who is better for betting.

 

[pearl31]

Not much respect for our SOS differential I think vegas got this one wrong and we pull away by 11-13. If we had no rest then by all means 3.5 but we should be well rested, unlike last week.

You’re nuts if u think we win this by more than 5-6

 

[STEVEHOLT]

Vegas thinks -3.5 will result in even bets on both sides

It doesn’t mean they actually think we’re 3.5 pts better at home

Syracuse is sort of a national brand so they would probably handicap it closer to even if it was strictly results based

 

[jncuse]

I don't have KP, other than the front page rankings but based on those I have Virginia Tech about 1.7 points based on the tempo in a neutral court... so I expected the line to be closer to -2.0.

I think it might move down a point or so by game time.

 

[MarketCuse]

gas thinks -3.5 will result in even bets on both sides

You’re nuts if u think we win this by more than 5-6

Call me nuts when we win by 10.

 

[MarketCuse]

RPI and RPI SOS is really bad for betting. It is not a basis for lines and really it such a bad metric that it should never be used to analyze who is better for betting.

I agree I was just adding some color not forming a basis ;-), we don't have a lot of content to judge these teams on. I think... when well rested we are 10 points better than v tech at home.

 

[jncuse]

Call me nuts when we win by 10.

I indeed hope you are nuts. I will call you a good nuts if we win.

 

[blust2i3d4]

Nope they are in the 70's

80's is bad bad. Most good ACC teams are in top 36.

 

[pearl31]

Call me nuts when we win by 10.

lol ok

 

[Cusefan0307]

I think we win a close a game at home similar to the Maryland game.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Virginia Tech has very low RPI. If we lost to them at home, it would be a disaster. Our RPI will get killed.

It won’t be by the time ACC play is over.

 

[orangehomer]

can't rule out the buzz Williams factor. this one feels like a pick'em

 

[kcsu]

Vegas thinks -3.5 will result in even bets on both sides

It doesn’t mean they actually think we’re 3.5 pts better at home

Syracuse is sort of a national brand so they would probably handicap it closer to even if it was strictly results based

Sort of a national brand...

 

[SoBeCuse]

70's is bad bad. Most good ACC teams are in top 35.

FWIW, KenPom has them ranked 35 and Syracuse 48.

 

[blust2i3d4]

FWIW, KenPom has them ranked 35 and Syracuse 48.

At least RPI is objective. KenPom has his own agenda in recent years. I no longer take it serious.

 

[jncuse]

Vegas thinks -3.5 will result in even bets on both sides

Their goal is to make money, not to get to 50/50. There is a difference between the two. In most cases in college basketball the 50/50 theory becomes problematic because of the sharps.

Here is the core issue in college basketball:
- Public throws most of the money towards the brand
- The only way to get the line to 50/50 is to really move the line which brings in the sharps.
- Sharps are the late and big betters and if they can throw the action above 50% on the sharp side it becomes an issue for Vegas. This is because there is not mass betting on college basketball and the public might not be able to bring the line back. Say they moved the line to bring in sharps bring it to 52% on the other side.

Vegas doesn't mind an event that is 52/48 if there is a mix of sharps on both sides, b. But it is a disaster if its 52/48 and the 52 is on a forced line in their favour. And that is the issue in college basketball -- to force the line to work you are really taking chances.


The Myth of the 50/50 Split

So in the end they set lines to try to get the sharps to be split on each side. Not a line where all the sharps are on one side. They get their cut, they believe in the formulas behind their lines, and know that games will even out over time. That is why you see many college basketball games with action of 70-80% on some teams.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

Their goal is to make money, not to get to 50/50. There is a difference between the two. In most cases in college basketball the 50/50 theory becomes problematic because of the sharps.

Here is the core issue in college basketball:
- Public throws most of the money towards the brand
- The only way to get the line to 50/50 is to really move the line which brings in the sharps.
- Sharps are the late and big betters and if they can throw the action above 50% on the sharp side it becomes an issue for Vegas. This is because there is not mass betting on college basketball and the public might not be able to bring the line back. Say they moved the line to bring in sharps bring it to 52% on the other side.

Vegas doesn't mind an event that is 52/48 if there is a mix of sharps on both sides, b. But it is a disaster if its 52/48 and the 52 is on a forced line in their favour. And that is the issue in college basketball -- to force the line to work you are really taking chances.


The Myth of the 50/50 Split

So in the end they set lines to try to get the sharps to be split on each side. Not a line where all the sharps are on one side. They get their cut, they believe in the formulas behind their lines, and know that games will even out over time. That is why you see many college basketball games with action of 70-80% on some teams.

They want even money on each side. they dont care who it comes from. the article affirms this. the fact that they can rarely achieve even money on each side doesn't mean its not the goal. How would you get even sharp money on each side? only if the line were perfectly set, in which case why would a sharp even bet it?