Syracuse Orange Power Poll Week 2

[ar inj]

At this point my rankings are:

1. KJ
2. Dion
3. Southerland
4. CJ
5. Brandon
6. Fab
7. BMK
8. MCW
9. Scoop
10. Rak

 

[Cuse_MN]

The reason I don't rank BMK higher than Melo based on this season's statistics is because we have a very small sample size. We have only gotten a brief glimpse of Melo the player (as opposed to Melo the injured zombie). If Melo stays long enough to give us a sizable sample, he will obviously outpace BMK in many important stats. And BMK is a stud too. I agree that Melo looked out of place against Colgate. He will look less out of place in the NBA next season.

Before Wes Johnson played a single game for the Cuse, almost every scout/pro personnel evaluator who had seen him knew he was a first rounder. Ditto for Melo, this season.

And we have seen this before from Dirty. Last season, there was a three game stretch against terrible competition against whom Dirty scored well. Against Colgate, Iona, and Morgan State, Southerland averaged 10.6 points and 5.3 rebounds a game with excellent percentages and efficiency. Most of the board began ranking Dirty as a better player than C.J. Fair at that time: but I did not. My opinion was that Dirty had simply put up good scoring numbers against weak competition, and I think that opinion was validated by the rest of James's season. I absolutely agree that James can improve (his quickness, handle, feel, vision, etc), but I do not see much improvement. He's a good player, but this team is just too stacked.

Anywho, there's no reason for controversy here. Most everyone understands that Dirty is on the outside looking in as far as being one of our best 6-7 players: points scored against Colgate notwithstanding. I'm glad to see him do well, but I suspect that Mookie could do almost as well if given a similar shot. And that is not meant as an insult to anyone. Mookie was a top recruit, and could have been a star, if not for our flood of awesome talent.

Melo was declared a first rounder by "almost every" scout before this season started? Really? I hadn't heard that. On what? Certainly not on any statistical analysis. We'll have to agree to disagree on the rotation. I see it deeper than 6-7 players. I see James in the rotation today. I think he will have to play himself out of the rotation. As weak as our guards are at shooting the three ball, we need a threat outside KJ. I think his overall game has clearly improved year over year. I'm not expecting him to keep shooting the ball the way he has been, but he'll continue to contribute throughout the season including BE play.

Statistical analysis to pick players is a lot like financial analysis to pick stocks. The numbers tell part of the story and can't be ignored, but they don't tell all the story. In the financial world, there are a lot of analysts who can calculate financial metrics and tear apart current financials but they can't call a stock or bond to save their lives. Intuition and being able to look beyond historical numbers is where success lies. I'm sure this holds true in statistical analysis for sports as well.

 

[fanfanclubclub]

Melo was declared a first rounder by "almost every" scout before this season started? Really? I hadn't heard that. On what? Certainly not on any statistical analysis.

Yea, Melo was very good over seas: 8.4 pts, 5.9 reb, 1.9 blk in 17 minutes a game.
per 40: 19.7 pts, 13.9 reb, 4.5 blocks, good stuff.

then great in the Cuse pre-season: 10.0 pts, 6.5 reb, 3.0 blk in 19.5 minutes a game.
per 40: 20.5 pts, 13.3 reb, 6.15 blocks.

At that point, before the season started, it became pretty clear that Melo had put his conditioning and injury issues from last year behind him, and had resumed a clear 1st rounder profile. Fab's skill set and size make him a default 1st rounder, he just has to avoid proving that he is not worth a 1st round pick. With his skill set and size, plus this athleticism and mobility, he basically just has to stay healthy. He doesn't have to be consistent or dominant to be a first rounder. BMK could pass Fab over and Fab would still get Daniel Orton'ed so long as he stays healthy.

despite the egg vs Colgate, he has continued to be good so far this season:
6.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.3 blk in 18.8 minutes, per 40: 13.8 pts, 12.3 reb, 4.9 blocks (but 7.9 pf).

 

[bnoro]

Yea, Melo was very good over seas: 8.4 pts, 5.9 reb, 1.9 blk in 17 minutes a game.
per 40: 19.7 pts, 13.9 reb, 4.5 blocks, good stuff.

then great in the Cuse pre-season: 10.0 pts, 6.5 reb, 3.0 blk in 19.5 minutes a game.
per 40: 20.5 pts, 13.3 reb, 6.15 blocks.

At that point, before the season started, it became pretty clear that Melo had put his conditioning and injury issues from last year behind him, and had resumed a clear 1st rounder profile. Fab's skill set and size make him a default 1st rounder, he just has to avoid proving that he is not worth a 1st round pick. With his skill set and size, plus this athleticism and mobility, he basically just has to stay healthy. He doesn't have to be consistent or dominant to be a first rounder. BMK could pass Fab over and he'd still get Daniel Orton'ed so long as he stays healthy.

despite the egg vs Colgate, he has continued to be good so far this season:
6.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.3 blk in 18.8 minutes, per 40: 13.8 pts, 12.3 reb, 4.9 blocks (but 7.9 pf).

Entertain us please and give us James' stats and per 40's for this year, and then state why that doesn't show improvement. Thanks.

 

[fanfanclubclub]

Entertain us please and give us James' stats and per 40's for this year, and then state why that doesn't show improvement. Thanks.

Southerland's per-40 scoring has basically doubled: from 13.8 to 26.5.

James is scoring really well, but obviously there is a possibility that he has simply been on a hot streak shooting against lousy competition (and aiding by easy shots when we were pressing a team that couldn't get to half court).

James has also shown some improvement in his floor game-
Southerland's per 40 stats from 2010: per 40: 6.5 reb, 1.4 a, 1.7 blk, 1.4 s
Southerland's per 40 stats from 2011: per 40: 8.4 reb, 2.9 a, 1,9 blk, 3.8 s

But this improved floor game is still one of the least productive floor games on the team, mirroring the stat sheet of the clearly-hobbled Joseph. If Southerland keeps up this level of scoring, then he is about as good as injured-Joseph: except that Southerland doesn't get to the line (1.9 fta per 40), so he is not as efficient as Joseph (7.2).

If, on the other hand, James is simply riding a 3 game hot streak vs. lousy competition, then he doesn't deserve minutes over Joseph, and his floor game makes it hard to win minutes from Fair, BMK, and Xmas. Syracuse doesn't play four front court subs.

Also, Southerland and Melo are apples and oranges.

Southerland is not a default 1st rounder with his skill set and size, Melo is. Huge difference. There is no chance for Southerland to be Daniel Orton'ed. Melo's size, mobility, defensive presence, and skill set put him in a favorable position where he just needs to show some game sense and stay healthy: both of which he is doing. Melo simply changes the game on both sides of the floor.

 

[bnoro]

That is impressive, but obviously there is a possibility that he has simply been on a hot streak shooting against lousy competition (and aiding by some dunks against a team that couldn't get to half court). The possibility that this is simply a fluke against lousy talent is suggested by Southerland's body of work: over the course of his high school and college career, now spanning 8 years, Southerland has never been projected as a key player on a top team.

Fab's isn't a fluke against lousy squads? James can shoot, Fab cannot. Most of Fab's points thus far are tip ins and dunks, against smaller opponents. You claim his stock went up from preseason games, but they played even smaller teams them. James can hit shots against any team in the country because shooting is much different than post up moves, which Fab has not shown any so far. I am a big Melo fan but come on.

You can't say James' numbers are fluky because it's lesser competition and call Fab's legit. That's my main issue here.

 

[BlazeOrange]

I didn't read the OP close enough to notice that the website poll is already up and running until after I posted my choices in the thread. Did anyone else do the same?

Looking at the results so far, five players received votes for #1 and eight got last place votes.

 

[Oakland]

Thanks for doing this. The results chart is very interesting.

 

[Upstate]

1. Southerland
2. KJ
3. Dion
4. Fair
5. Triche
6. Scoop
7. Keita
8. Fab
9. MCW
10. Rak