suloyalfan
2nd String
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
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NC State FBS Games (combined record of 36-19):
W, 24-23 vs. Georgia Southern (6-2)
W, 46-34 vs. Old Dominion (3-5)
W, 49-17 @ South Florida (3-5)
L, 41-56 vs. Florida State (7-0) (Excluding NC State, 34.4 ppg vs. 5 other P5 teams (including Notre Dame))
L, 0-41 @ Clemson (6-2) (Excluding NC State, 24 ppg vs. 6 other P5 teams)
L, 14-30 vs. Boston College (5-3) (Excluding NC State, 23.25 ppg vs. 4 other P5 teams)
L, 18-30 @ Louisville (6-2) (Excluding NC State, 23.4 ppg vs. 5 other P5 teams)
All 4 P5 teams that NC State has faced have scored more points than their average against the other P5 teams they've faced.
Syracuse FBS Games (combined record of 37-18):
W, 40-3 @ Central Michigan (5-4)
L, 20-34 vs. Maryland (5-3) (Excluding Syracuse, 28.6 ppg vs. 5 other P5 teams)
L, 15-31 vs. Notre Dame (Neutral Site) (6-1) (Excluding Syracuse, 31.0 ppg vs. 5 other P5 teams)
L, 6-28 vs. Louisville (6-2) (Excluding Syracuse, 23.8 ppg vs. 5 other P5 teams)
L, 20-38 vs. Florida State (7-0) (Excluding Syracuse, 38.0 ppg vs. 5 other P5 teams)
W, 30-7 @ Wake Forest (2-6) (Excluding Syracuse, 10.0 ppg vs. 3 other P5 teams)
L, 6-16 @ Clemson (6-2) (Excluding Syracuse, 28.2 ppg vs. 6 other P5 teams)
Maryland and Louisville are the only teams to beat their P5 average versus other teams against SU. Notre Dame and Florida State were right on their average. Clemson and Wake Forest both scored below their average against SU.
Common Opponents (Florida State, Clemson, Louisville - NC State and Syracuse combined 0-6):
NC State 59, Opponents 127 (average score 19.7-42.3)
Syracuse 32, Opponents 82 (average score 10.7-27.3)
Against FBS competition ONLY (7 games each, with 3 common opponents so far), the "Tale of the Tape" is as follows (Top 25% Nationally, Bottom 25% Nationally):
Scoring Offense - NC State #70 (27.4 ppg, only 18.3 ppg vs. P5 teams), Syracuse #114 (19.6 ppg, 16.4 ppg vs. P5 teams)
Scoring Defense - NC State #93 (33 ppg, 39.3 ppg vs. P5 teams), Syracuse #28 (22.4 ppg, 24.6 ppg vs. P5 teams)
Total Offense - NC State #66 (398.6 ypg), Syracuse #80 (384.9 ypg)
Total Defense - NC State #68 (415.0 ypg), Syracuse #32 (355.4 ypg)
Rushing Offense: NC State #56 (168.71 ypg/37.29 apg/12 TD), Syracuse #45 (185.14 ypg/36.86 apg/7 TD)
Rushing Defense: NC State #95 (197.17 ypg/40.57 apg/15 TD), Syracuse #29 (123.43 ypg/37.71 apg/5 TD)
Passing Offense: NC State #70 (229.9 ypg/33.3 apg/13 TD/4 INT), Syracuse #90 (199.7 ypg/32.7 apg/3 TD/9 INT)
Passing Defense: NC State #48 (217.9 ypg/30.0 apg/12 TD/5 INT), Syracuse #63 (232.0 ypg/30.7 apg/12 TD/6 INT)
Long Scrimmage Plays +10 Yards (Offense): NC State #48 (105, #58 at 47 vs. P5 in 4 games), Syracuse #81 (90, #45 at 64 vs. P5 in 5 games)
Long Scrimmage Plays +10 Yards (Defense): NC State #71 (99, #78 at 64 vs. P5 in 4 games), Syracuse #36 (86, #75 at 63 vs. P5 in 5 games)
Tackles For Loss (Defense): NC State #66 (5.71 tflpg), Syracuse #49 (6.43 tflpg)
Tackles For Loss Allowed (Offense): NC State #10 (4.14 tflpg), Syracuse #70 (6.14 tflpg)
Interceptions (Defense): NC State #79 (0.71 ipg, 5 total on 210 attempts), Syracuse #65 (0.86 ipg, 6 total on 215 attempts)
Sacks: NC State #82 (1.71 spg, 12 total), Syracuse #45 (2.43 spg, 17 total)
Sacks Allowed: NC State #88 (2.57 spg, 18 total), Syracuse #21 (1.29 spg, 9 total)
Penalties - NC State #4 (3.7 ppg/30.9 ypg), Syracuse #96 (7.4 ppg/59.9 ypg)
Turnover Margin - NC State #69 (-0.14 with 10 takeaways, 11 giveaways), Syracuse #18 (0.86 with 17 takeaways, 11 giveaways)
3rd Down Conversions (Offense) - NC State #20 (46.39%, but #56 at 37.5% against P5 teams), Syracuse #97 (35.78%, but #71 at 35.44% against P5 team)
3rd Down Conversions (Defense) - NC State #125 (52.94%), Syracuse #54 (38.54%)
Red Zone Score % (Offense) - NC State #73 (82.76% in 29 chances), Syracuse #96 (78.26% in 23 chances)
Red Zone TD% (Offense) - NC State #27 (68.97% in 29 chances), Syracuse #125 (34.78% in 23 chances)
Red Zone FG% (Offense) - NC State #107 (13.79% in 20 chances), Syracuse #2 (43.48% in 23 chances)
Red Zone Score % (Defense) - NC State #28 (78.57% in 28 chances), Syracuse #48 (81.82% in 22 chances)
Red Zone TD% (Defense) - NC State #39 (57.14% in 28 chances), Syracuse #34 (54.55% in 22 chances)
Red Zone FG% (Defense) - NC State #55 (21.43% in 28 chances), Syracuse #94 (27.27% in 22 chances)
Punting - NC State #7 (45.77 ypp), Syracuse #54 (42.36 ypp)
Punt Returns (Offense) - NC State #101 (4.4 ypr, 0 TD), Syracuse #50 (8.55 ypr, 0 TD)
Punt Returns (Defense) - NC State #97 (10.93 ypr, 0 TD), Syracuse #74 (8.67 ypr, 0 TD)
Kickoff Average Yards - NC State #17 (63.43 yards), Syracuse #100 (58.72 yards)
% Touchback - NC State #14 (59.46%, with 0 out of bounds kicks), Syracuse #97 (25.0%, with 3 out of bounds kicks)
Kickoff Returns (Offense) - NC State #104 (18.95 ypr, 0 TD), Syracuse #124 (17.77 ypr, 0 TD)
Kickoff Returns (Defense) - NC State #20 (18.13 ypr, 0 TD), Syracuse #32 (19.25 ypr, 0 TD)
Field Goals - NC State #100 (60.0%, 6/10), Syracuse #68 (72.2%, 13/18)
Time of Possession - NC State #81 (29:17.00 mpg), Syracuse #105 (25:58.14 mpg)
When Syracuse Has The Ball:
Syracuse has an advantage with it's rushing game. NC State is allowing almost 4.9 ypc (#95), while Syracuse averages 5.02 ypc (#45). There is no clear advantage in the SU passing attack versus the NC State pass defense. Syracuse protects the QB well (#21, 1.29 spg), while NC State doesn't apply much pressure (#82, 1.71 spg), though I expect that NC State will try to bring pressure on passing downs to force the freshman QB into mistakes (they've had 2 weeks to think about it). On 3rd down, the matchup gets interesting. NC State is #125, allowing 52.94% conversions on 3rd down. I suspect that is due to their weak run defense. Syracuse is not much better at converting 3rd downs (#97, 35.78%), but the combination of a good running game against this defense should help to swing this into an advantage. The Syracuse red zone offense versus the NC State defense is statistically a disadvantage ranking wise (#96 offense vs. #28 defense), though Syracuse's scoring percentage (78.26% in 23 chances) is very close to what NC State actually allows (78.57% in 28 chances). The biggest problem facing Syracuse in the red zone is not how often they score, but how often they settle for FG's instead of TD's. In a game that's likely to be close, their ability to get 7 instead of 3 in the opportunities they have could be the difference in this game. Given that NC State is giving up 39.3 ppg in 4 games vs. ACC competition so far, the chances to put points on the board for this offense will be there.
When NC State Has The Ball:
On the surface, NC State scoring offense appears to be a strength against FBS competition at 27.4 ppg. However, if you dig deeper into the numbers their performance against peer teams (P5) is much less impressive (18.7 ppg). NC State took advantage of a light schedule (Georgia Southern, Old Dominion, South Florida) to run up some impressive offensive numbers earlier in the season, but they've come back down to Earth when facing ACC competition. It won't get any easier against the Syracuse defense on Saturday. Syracuse will bring pressure successfully in this game sacking Brisett 2-3 times, will force 2-3 turnovers, and will likely hold NC State close to their 18.7 ppg average.
Special Team:
Neither team is good in the punt or kickoff return games. NC State has a good kickoff averages and punting averages, while Syracuse is average or below average on both. Kickoff and punt coverage for both teams are above average. Basically, all of this spells not much action on the kickoffs or punts, and long fields for both offenses.
With regard to field goals, neither team is very good either. If this game comes down to field goals, misses could come into play deciding the outcome of this game.
Intangibles:
Once again, Syracuse is up against a team that is lightly penalized (#4, 3.7 ppg), while Syracuse is still one of the most penalized teams in the country (#96, 7.4 ppg). This is a clear advantage for NC State, and may end up benefiting them in this game.
Time of possession is a statistic that I don't put much stock in, but in the interest of being thorough, neither team holds the ball for long (#81 and #105), so expect a lot of short drives in this one (3 and outs, 1-2 first downs and a punt, turnovers, etc).
Prediction
I think that Syracuse wins this game, but it's going to be close and relatively low scoring. My prediction is 24-17, Syracuse.
W, 24-23 vs. Georgia Southern (6-2)
W, 46-34 vs. Old Dominion (3-5)
W, 49-17 @ South Florida (3-5)
L, 41-56 vs. Florida State (7-0) (Excluding NC State, 34.4 ppg vs. 5 other P5 teams (including Notre Dame))
L, 0-41 @ Clemson (6-2) (Excluding NC State, 24 ppg vs. 6 other P5 teams)
L, 14-30 vs. Boston College (5-3) (Excluding NC State, 23.25 ppg vs. 4 other P5 teams)
L, 18-30 @ Louisville (6-2) (Excluding NC State, 23.4 ppg vs. 5 other P5 teams)
All 4 P5 teams that NC State has faced have scored more points than their average against the other P5 teams they've faced.
Syracuse FBS Games (combined record of 37-18):
W, 40-3 @ Central Michigan (5-4)
L, 20-34 vs. Maryland (5-3) (Excluding Syracuse, 28.6 ppg vs. 5 other P5 teams)
L, 15-31 vs. Notre Dame (Neutral Site) (6-1) (Excluding Syracuse, 31.0 ppg vs. 5 other P5 teams)
L, 6-28 vs. Louisville (6-2) (Excluding Syracuse, 23.8 ppg vs. 5 other P5 teams)
L, 20-38 vs. Florida State (7-0) (Excluding Syracuse, 38.0 ppg vs. 5 other P5 teams)
W, 30-7 @ Wake Forest (2-6) (Excluding Syracuse, 10.0 ppg vs. 3 other P5 teams)
L, 6-16 @ Clemson (6-2) (Excluding Syracuse, 28.2 ppg vs. 6 other P5 teams)
Maryland and Louisville are the only teams to beat their P5 average versus other teams against SU. Notre Dame and Florida State were right on their average. Clemson and Wake Forest both scored below their average against SU.
Common Opponents (Florida State, Clemson, Louisville - NC State and Syracuse combined 0-6):
NC State 59, Opponents 127 (average score 19.7-42.3)
Syracuse 32, Opponents 82 (average score 10.7-27.3)
Against FBS competition ONLY (7 games each, with 3 common opponents so far), the "Tale of the Tape" is as follows (Top 25% Nationally, Bottom 25% Nationally):
Scoring Offense - NC State #70 (27.4 ppg, only 18.3 ppg vs. P5 teams), Syracuse #114 (19.6 ppg, 16.4 ppg vs. P5 teams)
Scoring Defense - NC State #93 (33 ppg, 39.3 ppg vs. P5 teams), Syracuse #28 (22.4 ppg, 24.6 ppg vs. P5 teams)
Total Offense - NC State #66 (398.6 ypg), Syracuse #80 (384.9 ypg)
Total Defense - NC State #68 (415.0 ypg), Syracuse #32 (355.4 ypg)
Rushing Offense: NC State #56 (168.71 ypg/37.29 apg/12 TD), Syracuse #45 (185.14 ypg/36.86 apg/7 TD)
Rushing Defense: NC State #95 (197.17 ypg/40.57 apg/15 TD), Syracuse #29 (123.43 ypg/37.71 apg/5 TD)
Passing Offense: NC State #70 (229.9 ypg/33.3 apg/13 TD/4 INT), Syracuse #90 (199.7 ypg/32.7 apg/3 TD/9 INT)
Passing Defense: NC State #48 (217.9 ypg/30.0 apg/12 TD/5 INT), Syracuse #63 (232.0 ypg/30.7 apg/12 TD/6 INT)
Long Scrimmage Plays +10 Yards (Offense): NC State #48 (105, #58 at 47 vs. P5 in 4 games), Syracuse #81 (90, #45 at 64 vs. P5 in 5 games)
Long Scrimmage Plays +10 Yards (Defense): NC State #71 (99, #78 at 64 vs. P5 in 4 games), Syracuse #36 (86, #75 at 63 vs. P5 in 5 games)
Tackles For Loss (Defense): NC State #66 (5.71 tflpg), Syracuse #49 (6.43 tflpg)
Tackles For Loss Allowed (Offense): NC State #10 (4.14 tflpg), Syracuse #70 (6.14 tflpg)
Interceptions (Defense): NC State #79 (0.71 ipg, 5 total on 210 attempts), Syracuse #65 (0.86 ipg, 6 total on 215 attempts)
Sacks: NC State #82 (1.71 spg, 12 total), Syracuse #45 (2.43 spg, 17 total)
Sacks Allowed: NC State #88 (2.57 spg, 18 total), Syracuse #21 (1.29 spg, 9 total)
Penalties - NC State #4 (3.7 ppg/30.9 ypg), Syracuse #96 (7.4 ppg/59.9 ypg)
Turnover Margin - NC State #69 (-0.14 with 10 takeaways, 11 giveaways), Syracuse #18 (0.86 with 17 takeaways, 11 giveaways)
3rd Down Conversions (Offense) - NC State #20 (46.39%, but #56 at 37.5% against P5 teams), Syracuse #97 (35.78%, but #71 at 35.44% against P5 team)
3rd Down Conversions (Defense) - NC State #125 (52.94%), Syracuse #54 (38.54%)
Red Zone Score % (Offense) - NC State #73 (82.76% in 29 chances), Syracuse #96 (78.26% in 23 chances)
Red Zone TD% (Offense) - NC State #27 (68.97% in 29 chances), Syracuse #125 (34.78% in 23 chances)
Red Zone FG% (Offense) - NC State #107 (13.79% in 20 chances), Syracuse #2 (43.48% in 23 chances)
Red Zone Score % (Defense) - NC State #28 (78.57% in 28 chances), Syracuse #48 (81.82% in 22 chances)
Red Zone TD% (Defense) - NC State #39 (57.14% in 28 chances), Syracuse #34 (54.55% in 22 chances)
Red Zone FG% (Defense) - NC State #55 (21.43% in 28 chances), Syracuse #94 (27.27% in 22 chances)
Punting - NC State #7 (45.77 ypp), Syracuse #54 (42.36 ypp)
Punt Returns (Offense) - NC State #101 (4.4 ypr, 0 TD), Syracuse #50 (8.55 ypr, 0 TD)
Punt Returns (Defense) - NC State #97 (10.93 ypr, 0 TD), Syracuse #74 (8.67 ypr, 0 TD)
Kickoff Average Yards - NC State #17 (63.43 yards), Syracuse #100 (58.72 yards)
% Touchback - NC State #14 (59.46%, with 0 out of bounds kicks), Syracuse #97 (25.0%, with 3 out of bounds kicks)
Kickoff Returns (Offense) - NC State #104 (18.95 ypr, 0 TD), Syracuse #124 (17.77 ypr, 0 TD)
Kickoff Returns (Defense) - NC State #20 (18.13 ypr, 0 TD), Syracuse #32 (19.25 ypr, 0 TD)
Field Goals - NC State #100 (60.0%, 6/10), Syracuse #68 (72.2%, 13/18)
Time of Possession - NC State #81 (29:17.00 mpg), Syracuse #105 (25:58.14 mpg)
When Syracuse Has The Ball:
Syracuse has an advantage with it's rushing game. NC State is allowing almost 4.9 ypc (#95), while Syracuse averages 5.02 ypc (#45). There is no clear advantage in the SU passing attack versus the NC State pass defense. Syracuse protects the QB well (#21, 1.29 spg), while NC State doesn't apply much pressure (#82, 1.71 spg), though I expect that NC State will try to bring pressure on passing downs to force the freshman QB into mistakes (they've had 2 weeks to think about it). On 3rd down, the matchup gets interesting. NC State is #125, allowing 52.94% conversions on 3rd down. I suspect that is due to their weak run defense. Syracuse is not much better at converting 3rd downs (#97, 35.78%), but the combination of a good running game against this defense should help to swing this into an advantage. The Syracuse red zone offense versus the NC State defense is statistically a disadvantage ranking wise (#96 offense vs. #28 defense), though Syracuse's scoring percentage (78.26% in 23 chances) is very close to what NC State actually allows (78.57% in 28 chances). The biggest problem facing Syracuse in the red zone is not how often they score, but how often they settle for FG's instead of TD's. In a game that's likely to be close, their ability to get 7 instead of 3 in the opportunities they have could be the difference in this game. Given that NC State is giving up 39.3 ppg in 4 games vs. ACC competition so far, the chances to put points on the board for this offense will be there.
When NC State Has The Ball:
On the surface, NC State scoring offense appears to be a strength against FBS competition at 27.4 ppg. However, if you dig deeper into the numbers their performance against peer teams (P5) is much less impressive (18.7 ppg). NC State took advantage of a light schedule (Georgia Southern, Old Dominion, South Florida) to run up some impressive offensive numbers earlier in the season, but they've come back down to Earth when facing ACC competition. It won't get any easier against the Syracuse defense on Saturday. Syracuse will bring pressure successfully in this game sacking Brisett 2-3 times, will force 2-3 turnovers, and will likely hold NC State close to their 18.7 ppg average.
Special Team:
Neither team is good in the punt or kickoff return games. NC State has a good kickoff averages and punting averages, while Syracuse is average or below average on both. Kickoff and punt coverage for both teams are above average. Basically, all of this spells not much action on the kickoffs or punts, and long fields for both offenses.
With regard to field goals, neither team is very good either. If this game comes down to field goals, misses could come into play deciding the outcome of this game.
Intangibles:
Once again, Syracuse is up against a team that is lightly penalized (#4, 3.7 ppg), while Syracuse is still one of the most penalized teams in the country (#96, 7.4 ppg). This is a clear advantage for NC State, and may end up benefiting them in this game.
Time of possession is a statistic that I don't put much stock in, but in the interest of being thorough, neither team holds the ball for long (#81 and #105), so expect a lot of short drives in this one (3 and outs, 1-2 first downs and a punt, turnovers, etc).
Prediction
I think that Syracuse wins this game, but it's going to be close and relatively low scoring. My prediction is 24-17, Syracuse.
Next season I'll try to make it a little better with more information about the schools and players. That's an "off season" research project...
