suloyalfan
2nd String
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I want to preface this week's analysis with the following. The Syracuse offense is so decimated by injuries, that many of these numbers just aren't a true picture of the team that will step on the field on Saturday. Earlier in the season before the injuries mounted, even against tough competition the offensive performance was much better. Now, with so many injuries on the offensive line, at QB, and WR, the offense is severely hampered.
Duke FBS Games (combined opponent records vs. FBS competition of 20-34):
W, 34-17 @ Troy (1-7)
W, 41-3 vs. Kansas (1-6)
W, 47-13 vs. Tulane (1-6)
L, 10-22 @ Miami (FL) (5-3)
W, 31-25 @ Georgia Tech (6-2)
W, 20-13 vs. Virginia (3-5)
W, 51-48 @ Pittsburgh (3-5)
Syracuse FBS Games (combined opponent records vs. FBS competition of 40-24):
W, 40-3 @ Central Michigan (5-4)
L, 20-34 vs. Maryland (5-3)
L, 15-31 vs. Notre Dame (Neutral Site) (7-1)
L, 6-28 vs. Louisville (5-3)
L, 20-38 vs. Florida State (7-0)
W, 30-7 @ Wake Forest (1-7)
L, 6-16 @ Clemson (6-2)
L, 17-24, vs. NC State (4-4)
Against FBS competition ONLY (Duke has played 7 games, Syracuse has played 8 games), the "Tale of the Tape" is as follows (Top 25% Nationally, Bottom 25% Nationally):
Scoring Offense - Duke #31 (33.4 ppg), Syracuse #112 (19.3 ppg)
Scoring Defense - Duke #16 (20.1 ppg), Syracuse #33 (22.6 ppg)
Total Offense - Duke #63 (401.3 ypg), Syracuse #78 (379.9 ypg)
Total Defense - Duke #88 (436.0 ypg), Syracuse #28 (349.4 ypg)
Rushing Offense: Duke #38 (203.29 ypg/35.43 apg/16 TD), Syracuse #59 (166.75 ypg/36.88 apg/7 TD)
Rushing Defense: Duke #109 (224.86 ypg/47.29 apg/12 TD), Syracuse #23 (123.13 ypg/37.38 apg/5 TD)
Passing Offense: Duke #93 (198.0 ypg/35.7 apg/10 TD/3 INT), Syracuse #81 (213.1 ypg/33.9 apg/5 TD/11 INT)
Passing Defense: Duke #41 (211.1 ypg/32.9 apg/5 TD/8 INT), Syracuse #57 (226.3 ypg/31.0 apg/13 TD/6 INT)
Long Scrimmage Plays +10 Yards (Offense): Duke #98 (93 in 7 games), Syracuse #74 (107 in 8 games)
Long Scrimmage Plays +10 Yards (Defense): Duke #74 (115 in 7 games), Syracuse #27 (95 in 8 games)
Tackles For Loss (Defense): Duke #117 (4.0 tflpg), Syracuse #46 (6.38 tflpg)
Tackles For Loss Allowed (Offense): Duke #2 (2.86 tflpg), Syracuse #102 (7.00 tflpg)
Interceptions (Defense): Duke #35 (1.14 ipg, 8 total on 230 attempts), Syracuse #77 (0.75 ipg, 6 total on 248 attempts)
Sacks: Duke #95 (1.57 spg, 11 total), Syracuse #52 (2.38 spg, 19 total)
Sacks Allowed: Duke #2 (0.57 spg, 4 total), Syracuse #66 (2.13 spg, 17 total)
Penalties - Duke #33 (5.3 ppg/42.7 ypg), Syracuse #97 (7.3 ppg/60.0 ypg)
Turnover Margin - Duke #12 (1.14 with 13 takeaways, 5 giveaways), Syracuse #38 (0.38 with 17 takeaways, 14 giveaways)
3rd Down Conversions (Offense) - Duke #73 (38.95%), Syracuse #90 (36%)
3rd Down Conversions (Defense) - Duke #77 (40.95%), Syracuse #39 (36.61%)
Red Zone Score % (Offense) - Duke #37 (87.1% in 31 chances), Syracuse #88 (80.0% in 25 chances)
Red Zone TD% (Offense) - Duke #78 (58.06% in 31 chances), Syracuse #125 (36.0% in 25 chances)
Red Zone FG% (Offense) - Duke #32 (29.03% in 31 chances), Syracuse #2 (44.44% in 25 chances)
Red Zone Score % (Defense) - Duke #107 (88.89% in 27 chances), Syracuse #66 (84.0% in 25 chances)
Red Zone TD% (Defense) - Duke #52 (59.26% in 29 chances), Syracuse #28 (52.00% in 25 chances)
Red Zone FG% (Defense) - Duke #107 (29.63% in 29 chances), Syracuse #112 (32.00% in 25 chances)
Punting - Duke #19 (44.11 ypp), Syracuse #57 (41.77 ypp)
Punt Returns (Offense) - Duke #53 (8.21 ypr, 0 TD), Syracuse #46 (8.6 ypr, 0 TD)
Punt Returns (Defense) - Duke #25 (4.13 ypr, 0 TD), Syracuse #67 (8.14 ypr, 0 TD)
Kickoff Average Yards - Duke #39 (62.35 yards), Syracuse #99 (58.54 yards)
% Touchback - Duke #63 (37.21%, with 0 out of bounds kicks), Syracuse #105 (22.86%, with 3 out of bounds kicks)
Kickoff Returns (Offense) - Duke #2 (28.29 ypr, 1 TD), Syracuse #123 (17.77 ypr, 0 TD)
Kickoff Returns (Defense) - Duke #86 (22.00 ypr, 0 TD), Syracuse #19 (18.35 ypr, 0 TD)
Field Goals - Duke #1 (100.0%, 13/13), Syracuse #61 (73.7%, 14/19)
Time of Possession - Duke #112 (27:18.00 mpg), Syracuse #102 (28:03.63 mpg)
When Syracuse Has The Ball:
Can the Syracuse offensive line come together with the injuries? Statistically, Syracuse has an advantage with it's rushing game versus the weak Duke rush defense. However, though Duke doesn't apply much pressure, I assume that they will bring pressure on Austin Wilson on passing downs to force quick decisions and negative plays. I think the offensive performance comes down to how well Syracuse can make Duke pay in the passing game since Duke is likely to stack the line to stop the run and force Syracuse to pass the ball.
When Duke Has The Ball:
Duke has balanced offense, averaging around 200 yards per game in the air and on the ground, and runs about 35 running plays and 35 passing plays per game. The rushing offense is above average, but the Syracuse defense is strong against the run so I don't think there is a clear advantage here. The loss of Hodge and Raymon in the middle could hurt, but the defense has fared well this year with injuries on the front line so far. I expect that Syracuse will try to stuff the run like normal and play soft on the edges, bringing pressure regularly. The problem with that is that Duke protects the quarterback really well, giving up only 4 sacks through 7 games against FBS opponents.
Special Team:
Duke has outstanding field goal kicking (13/13 on the season). Syracuse has been much better on field goals in recent games, so if the game comes down to field goals both teams are in decent shape.
Duke has an advantage in the kick return game, with a team that averages 28.29 ypr with 1 TD on the year. Syracuse has a sub-par kickoff average, but very good coverage, so this should be a good battle. The result of this matchup will determine if Duke starts with much better field position on kickoffs than Syracuse typically does.
Intangibles:
Penalties are still an ongoing issue, as Syracuse is still one of the most penalized teams in the country (#97, 7.3 ppg for 60.0 ypg).
Duke protects the ball well, while also forcing a fair amount of turnovers. They have forced 13 turnovers while only giving it up 5 times over 7 games against FBS competion. Syracuse takes the ball away alot, with 18 forced turnovers, but in the last few games they've started giving it up alot as well and now have 14 turnovers on the season.
Prediction
I think that Duke wins this game, with Syracuse's only chance being to keep the score low, force some turnovers, and make some big plays on offense. I know that this is stating the obvious, but if the offense can't produce at least 21 points, and they keep turning the ball over like last week (resulting in easy points for Duke) there is no way they'll win this game. Syracuse will need to force Duke to score against their defense driving a long field which will give them a chance to keep the score down. My prediction is 28-17, Duke.
Duke FBS Games (combined opponent records vs. FBS competition of 20-34):
W, 34-17 @ Troy (1-7)
W, 41-3 vs. Kansas (1-6)
W, 47-13 vs. Tulane (1-6)
L, 10-22 @ Miami (FL) (5-3)
W, 31-25 @ Georgia Tech (6-2)
W, 20-13 vs. Virginia (3-5)
W, 51-48 @ Pittsburgh (3-5)
Syracuse FBS Games (combined opponent records vs. FBS competition of 40-24):
W, 40-3 @ Central Michigan (5-4)
L, 20-34 vs. Maryland (5-3)
L, 15-31 vs. Notre Dame (Neutral Site) (7-1)
L, 6-28 vs. Louisville (5-3)
L, 20-38 vs. Florida State (7-0)
W, 30-7 @ Wake Forest (1-7)
L, 6-16 @ Clemson (6-2)
L, 17-24, vs. NC State (4-4)
Against FBS competition ONLY (Duke has played 7 games, Syracuse has played 8 games), the "Tale of the Tape" is as follows (Top 25% Nationally, Bottom 25% Nationally):
Scoring Offense - Duke #31 (33.4 ppg), Syracuse #112 (19.3 ppg)
Scoring Defense - Duke #16 (20.1 ppg), Syracuse #33 (22.6 ppg)
Total Offense - Duke #63 (401.3 ypg), Syracuse #78 (379.9 ypg)
Total Defense - Duke #88 (436.0 ypg), Syracuse #28 (349.4 ypg)
Rushing Offense: Duke #38 (203.29 ypg/35.43 apg/16 TD), Syracuse #59 (166.75 ypg/36.88 apg/7 TD)
Rushing Defense: Duke #109 (224.86 ypg/47.29 apg/12 TD), Syracuse #23 (123.13 ypg/37.38 apg/5 TD)
Passing Offense: Duke #93 (198.0 ypg/35.7 apg/10 TD/3 INT), Syracuse #81 (213.1 ypg/33.9 apg/5 TD/11 INT)
Passing Defense: Duke #41 (211.1 ypg/32.9 apg/5 TD/8 INT), Syracuse #57 (226.3 ypg/31.0 apg/13 TD/6 INT)
Long Scrimmage Plays +10 Yards (Offense): Duke #98 (93 in 7 games), Syracuse #74 (107 in 8 games)
Long Scrimmage Plays +10 Yards (Defense): Duke #74 (115 in 7 games), Syracuse #27 (95 in 8 games)
Tackles For Loss (Defense): Duke #117 (4.0 tflpg), Syracuse #46 (6.38 tflpg)
Tackles For Loss Allowed (Offense): Duke #2 (2.86 tflpg), Syracuse #102 (7.00 tflpg)
Interceptions (Defense): Duke #35 (1.14 ipg, 8 total on 230 attempts), Syracuse #77 (0.75 ipg, 6 total on 248 attempts)
Sacks: Duke #95 (1.57 spg, 11 total), Syracuse #52 (2.38 spg, 19 total)
Sacks Allowed: Duke #2 (0.57 spg, 4 total), Syracuse #66 (2.13 spg, 17 total)
Penalties - Duke #33 (5.3 ppg/42.7 ypg), Syracuse #97 (7.3 ppg/60.0 ypg)
Turnover Margin - Duke #12 (1.14 with 13 takeaways, 5 giveaways), Syracuse #38 (0.38 with 17 takeaways, 14 giveaways)
3rd Down Conversions (Offense) - Duke #73 (38.95%), Syracuse #90 (36%)
3rd Down Conversions (Defense) - Duke #77 (40.95%), Syracuse #39 (36.61%)
Red Zone Score % (Offense) - Duke #37 (87.1% in 31 chances), Syracuse #88 (80.0% in 25 chances)
Red Zone TD% (Offense) - Duke #78 (58.06% in 31 chances), Syracuse #125 (36.0% in 25 chances)
Red Zone FG% (Offense) - Duke #32 (29.03% in 31 chances), Syracuse #2 (44.44% in 25 chances)
Red Zone Score % (Defense) - Duke #107 (88.89% in 27 chances), Syracuse #66 (84.0% in 25 chances)
Red Zone TD% (Defense) - Duke #52 (59.26% in 29 chances), Syracuse #28 (52.00% in 25 chances)
Red Zone FG% (Defense) - Duke #107 (29.63% in 29 chances), Syracuse #112 (32.00% in 25 chances)
Punting - Duke #19 (44.11 ypp), Syracuse #57 (41.77 ypp)
Punt Returns (Offense) - Duke #53 (8.21 ypr, 0 TD), Syracuse #46 (8.6 ypr, 0 TD)
Punt Returns (Defense) - Duke #25 (4.13 ypr, 0 TD), Syracuse #67 (8.14 ypr, 0 TD)
Kickoff Average Yards - Duke #39 (62.35 yards), Syracuse #99 (58.54 yards)
% Touchback - Duke #63 (37.21%, with 0 out of bounds kicks), Syracuse #105 (22.86%, with 3 out of bounds kicks)
Kickoff Returns (Offense) - Duke #2 (28.29 ypr, 1 TD), Syracuse #123 (17.77 ypr, 0 TD)
Kickoff Returns (Defense) - Duke #86 (22.00 ypr, 0 TD), Syracuse #19 (18.35 ypr, 0 TD)
Field Goals - Duke #1 (100.0%, 13/13), Syracuse #61 (73.7%, 14/19)
Time of Possession - Duke #112 (27:18.00 mpg), Syracuse #102 (28:03.63 mpg)
When Syracuse Has The Ball:
Can the Syracuse offensive line come together with the injuries? Statistically, Syracuse has an advantage with it's rushing game versus the weak Duke rush defense. However, though Duke doesn't apply much pressure, I assume that they will bring pressure on Austin Wilson on passing downs to force quick decisions and negative plays. I think the offensive performance comes down to how well Syracuse can make Duke pay in the passing game since Duke is likely to stack the line to stop the run and force Syracuse to pass the ball.
When Duke Has The Ball:
Duke has balanced offense, averaging around 200 yards per game in the air and on the ground, and runs about 35 running plays and 35 passing plays per game. The rushing offense is above average, but the Syracuse defense is strong against the run so I don't think there is a clear advantage here. The loss of Hodge and Raymon in the middle could hurt, but the defense has fared well this year with injuries on the front line so far. I expect that Syracuse will try to stuff the run like normal and play soft on the edges, bringing pressure regularly. The problem with that is that Duke protects the quarterback really well, giving up only 4 sacks through 7 games against FBS opponents.
Special Team:
Duke has outstanding field goal kicking (13/13 on the season). Syracuse has been much better on field goals in recent games, so if the game comes down to field goals both teams are in decent shape.
Duke has an advantage in the kick return game, with a team that averages 28.29 ypr with 1 TD on the year. Syracuse has a sub-par kickoff average, but very good coverage, so this should be a good battle. The result of this matchup will determine if Duke starts with much better field position on kickoffs than Syracuse typically does.
Intangibles:
Penalties are still an ongoing issue, as Syracuse is still one of the most penalized teams in the country (#97, 7.3 ppg for 60.0 ypg).
Duke protects the ball well, while also forcing a fair amount of turnovers. They have forced 13 turnovers while only giving it up 5 times over 7 games against FBS competion. Syracuse takes the ball away alot, with 18 forced turnovers, but in the last few games they've started giving it up alot as well and now have 14 turnovers on the season.
Prediction
I think that Duke wins this game, with Syracuse's only chance being to keep the score low, force some turnovers, and make some big plays on offense. I know that this is stating the obvious, but if the offense can't produce at least 21 points, and they keep turning the ball over like last week (resulting in easy points for Duke) there is no way they'll win this game. Syracuse will need to force Duke to score against their defense driving a long field which will give them a chance to keep the score down. My prediction is 28-17, Duke.
