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Message: [QUOTE="jncuse, post: 4205789, member: 1969"] 1. [B] Gonzaga[/B] (sort of) - This one is a bit more difficult for me this year. Gonzaga is my second favourite team (about a 95% gap from Syracuse mind you). Few always seemed like a good guy that has ran a great program with American and International recruit... a legacy of many Canadians. But then he had the DUI incident earlier this year and that really bothered me. His punishment was not appropriate. I don't think he should have been cancelled either, just a much bigger punishment. That being said I will probably cheer for them... depending on #2. 2. [B] Teams I bet on to win (group of 10)[/B]. The last number of years I tend to make a handful of selections based on teams whose odds are not keeping up with their KP ranking. Rather smallish, bets payoff between $500-$600 if the teams win. This strategy of looking at early KP odds (about 8-10 games into the year) typically ends up with some good value bets. I did a calculation the other day -- My selection of teams this year ended up coming at odds of +231 to win... if I bet on them all today to win I would be getting odds of +115, so overall there was good timing I think. On December 8 I chose the following based on what seemed good value per KP [B]Auburn[/B] 60-1, now 16-1 [B]Baylor[/B] 16-1, now 12-1 [B]Arizona[/B] 20-1, 6-1 [B]Tennessee[/B] 70-1. 22-1 [B]USC[/B] 55-1, 80-1 [B]BYU[/B] 100-1 , 150-1 For some reason early in the year I really liked[B] Purdue[/B] as well. Usually don't take teams at 10-1, nor were they any great value at those odds compared to the others. But I liked them at 10-1, and they are now 13-1. So that bet was my most expensive and did not pay off. Purdue 10-1 Usually like to have about 10 teams in my group -- I ended up adding 4 teams around February 20th largely based on those that appeared to have KP value or projected seeding value. [B]Iowa[/B] a few weeks back at 100-1, [B]San Francisco[/B] 150-1, [B]Wisconsin[/B] 80-1. Iowa and Wisconsin are now up to 50-1. I later added [B]Providence[/B] 80-1 and yesterday [B]Texas A&M [/B]at 100-1 [B]Who I do not want to win[/B] 1. Duke and its not even close. 2. UConn 3. Kentucky, Kansas, UNC 4. Will typically cheer against BIG schools. [/QUOTE]

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