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Message: [QUOTE="Knicks411, post: 3762157, member: 767"] It's interesting, I was just trying to think it out in my head, but that feels high It seems fair to say if we lose to NC state, we have basically a 0% chance, right? Ken Pom has us 55% to beat NC State, Barttovirk has Nc State a few spots higher than us, so we'd be a a tad under 50% to beat them. So we could eyeball it and say we're basically 50/50 to beat State. So 50% of the time we lose to State, and are nearly certain to miss it and 50% of the time we beat State. So basically he is saying we are relatively likely to make the tournament just with one more win. Impossible to say, but I would not be that comfortable if we beat State and lost to UVA [/QUOTE]