The Annual Bubble Discussion Thread - 2021 Version

[jncuse]

I wanted to create a thread to allow people to discuss Syracuse's tourney chances or anything else related to the bubble on a national scale- other teams and other leagues.

Syracuse seems to be back at its home Around the bubble line -- maybe a little more outside the line than normal but still not out of it.

As I start this I will just note that I will likely not have much analysis or "watch" this year. Just don't have the feeling for it right now for Syracuse and the NCAA. But will still have thoughts from time to time.

As of right now Syracuse is the 9th team out per the bracket matrix.

So many things that make the selection this year different and makes it hard to make assessments. The only surprise to me would be if there are not many surprises on Selection Sunday.
- Inconsistent data from 2021 vs prior years ... Less Games
- Impact of OOC when there was many less games. OOC impacts RPI, BPI, and other metrics a lot.
- Inconsistent data from team to team as some have played more or less than others.
- I suspect there will be inconsistencies in conference tourneys -- some will happen, some will not.

 

[shandeezy7]

 

[jncuse]

I made this point in an other thread.

The general trend that I have observed on this board is the following; many tend to overrate what is needed to get in at this time of year. If you look at the years we have squeezed in on March 15th, we actually did less than people thought we needed to do on February 10th.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Love it

 

[upperdeck]

Some things to look at BPI has us at 29th.. thats pretty high

this means we need to pass 8-10 teams. looking at just this list

PSU is 4-8/7-9 they will not take a team with this kind of record.
Rich is 10-4 they have Davidson win and thats it.. Kentucky win means nothing now.
Maryland 4-9/ 10-10 have a couple good wins and a schedule to win more.
SH are they a lock at 11-8 . lost all the ranked games but beat Xavier

 

[Cuse1055]

I don’t get why Uconn would be in right now. Aren’t they like 8-5? Have they beaten anybody?

 

[EastCoast2]

I don’t get why Uconn would be in right now. Aren’t they like 8-5? Have they beaten anybody?

Their games vs. Nova and Xavier have been postponed... otherwise they would be 8-8.

 

[jdubs30]

I don’t get why Uconn would be in right now. Aren’t they like 8-5? Have they beaten anybody?

They beat USC... pretty good win. But I think USC was without their starting PG

 

[Cuse1055]

They beat USC... pretty good win

Is that better than our win against Virginia Tech? I feel like road, neutral and home games shouldn’t really matter as much this year without fans at most places.

 

[jdubs30]

Is that better than our win against Virginia Tech? I feel like road, neutral and home games shouldn’t really matter as much this year without fans at most places.

Per KenPom, USC is 13... VaTech is 34

 

[stuckinbig11]

The key to a #1 seed is to avoid losses by avoiding playing games. Ask Michigan.

 

[DCUNITED13]

Winning games would get us to the top of the Bubble. Nine (9) or less losses after the ACC Tournament and we are in the NCAA.

 

[HOFCeluck]

I made this point in an other thread.

The general trend that I have observed on this board is the following; many tend to overrate what is needed to get in at this time of year. If you look at the years we have squeezed in on March 15th, we actually did less than people thought we needed to do on February 10th.

Speaking of “squeezing in” that’s what Joe Girard does with his uniform every game night so it’s important to remember that unlikely events do occur all the time. Hope is not lost!

 

[cusediehard]

Speaking of “squeezing in” that’s what Joe Girard does with his uniform every game night so it’s important to remember that unlikely events do occur all the time. Hope is not lost!

The fat-shaming of JG is really getting kind of old and annoying.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Yeah, I'm not even worried about it. The selection is fraught with all kinds of weirdness this season.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

The fat-shaming of JG is really getting kind of old and annoying.

Hey, come on now, be fair.

It was old about a week and a half ago, alright?

 

[djcon57]

The fat-shaming of JG is really getting kind of old and annoying.

*insert Simpsons “that’s the joke” meme*

 

[HOFCeluck]

The fat-shaming of JG is really getting kind of old and annoying.

“getting” implies that it isn’t yet.

N/M oig made the joke first.

 

[Alsacs]

I made this point in an other thread.

The general trend that I have observed on this board is the following; many tend to overrate what is needed to get in at this time of year. If you look at the years we have squeezed in on March 15th, we actually did less than people thought we needed to do on February 10th.

I just don’t see the criteria being that different.
Teams still played 6 nonconference games.

It’s who you beat. Home:road may not matter as much but conference strength will matter.

I don’t see many resume wins on our side as of now.
If we beat Louisville, Georgia Tech and North Carolina I could see a tournament bid.

We aren’t losing to BC.

We should beat ND and Duke.

 

[Cuseball]

I wanted to create a thread to allow people to discuss Syracuse's tourney chances or anything else related to the bubble on a national scale- other teams and other leagues.

Syracuse seems to be back at its home Around the bubble line -- maybe a little more outside the line than normal but still not out of it.

As I start this I will just note that I will likely not have much analysis or "watch" this year. Just don't have the feeling for it right now for Syracuse and the NCAA. But will still have thoughts from time to time.

As of right now Syracuse is the 9th team out per the bracket matrix.

View attachment 196311

View attachment 196312

So many things that make the selection this year different and makes it hard to make assessments. The only surprise to me would be if there are not many surprises on Selection Sunday.
- Inconsistent data from 2021 vs prior years ... Less Games
- Impact of OOC when there was many less games. OOC impacts RPI, BPI, and other metrics a lot.
- Inconsistent data from team to team as some have played more or less than others.
- I suspect there will be inconsistencies in conference tourneys -- some will happen, some will not.

Happy to see you are back doing this (although would prefer if it was not an annual tradition for the Cuse).

Here's a little comparison of 8 of the teams listed in front of the Cuse. I am not saying we would be in as of now, but I think you could make a good argument as to why we are no worse off than any of the teams listed in front of us.

• Our SOS is the best of this bunch and NET and RPI is in the top 3 or 4.
• Our top win is comparable to anyone and no bad losses.
• We have 3 Quad 1 chances left (at Ville, at Duke and at Ga Tech), two Quad 2 (ND, UNC) and one Quad 3 (BC). If we get two of those Quad 1's we would be looking pretty good vs this group.
• The 4 A10 teams will beat each other a bit and one will get the auto bid. None of them have marquee wins nor will they get the chance

 

[HOFCeluck]

Crazy Duke is still Q1 but guess that’s the difference between Hone and Away

 

[shandeezy7]

Crazy Duke is still Q1 but guess that’s the difference between Hone and Away

Yeah I was thinking that it stinks that all of our Q1 opportunities are road games, but then I more or less assumed that the only reason they would be Q1 is because they are road games.

 

[Orangezoo]

Be great if VT moves up to a quad 1 as well.

 

[cusefan88]

Cuse needs more Q1 and Q2 wins. Won't make if they are winless in Q1

 

[jdubs30]

Pitt loss at home really stings. We hold on to that one we have no losses outside of Q1