The athleticism is better, but the defense still stinks.

[newmexicuse]

Many great points in this thread, but to me, the bottom line issue is not the Zone per se, but the exclusivity of the Zone. The Zone has two big weaknesses:

1. The three point shooting as discussed
2. Difficulty rebounding

Jimmy in his presser talked about rebounding.

So why in the world would he not correct that by installing a D that makes it easier to rebound ???

Two ways to address that:

1. Contract the Zone (and risk opening up more good trey looks)
2. Do the unthinkable in Northern NY and try some man.

For the life of me, I just do not understand why we cant play some man, at least in short stretches to mix things up.

Hell, the one time in Jimmy's life when he made that adjustment we ended up with a National Championship. Why cant we do it now ??????

 

[HOFCeluck]

#1 makes sense and the data supports it.

#2, someone would need to provide data to support this one.

I don’t have data because I’m too lazy at work. It just seems intuitive that if you’re more a volume shooter you’re taking a larger percentage of harder shots and/or Joe Girard-style heat checks that maybe you **shouldnt** be taking. So a 28 percent volume shooter is probably better than a 28 percent shooter who only takes a couple threes that are high percentage looks.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

My issue is that the game plan allows certain players to take wide open 3's. This has always been the case. Today a 28% 3 point shooter can hit a wide open shot. That is how the game has evolved along with the range. 10+ years ago you only had a few guys taking 3's on every team. The 28% shooter wasn't very good open or guarded.

Jesse also looks gassed. He isn't covering the middle at all. Very poor D last night.

The 28% shooter taking a lot of shots is a good thing,by the numbers.

 

[br801]

Shooters have become much more effective and we are recruiting at a lower level now. It is a really bad combo

I don't know if it's so much that shooters have become more effective (percentage-wise) shooting the deep ball, but rather that more players than ever can do it relatively effectively in significant volume.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

I don't know if it's so much that shooters have become more effective (percentage-wise) shooting the deep ball, but rather that more players than ever can do it relatively effectively in significant volume.

This.

You’ve got centers and power forwards shooting the three now.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Many great points in this thread, but to me, the bottom line issue is not the Zone per se, but the exclusivity of the Zone. The Zone has two big weaknesses:

1. The three point shooting as discussed
2. Difficulty rebounding

Jimmy in his presser talked about rebounding.

So why in the world would he not correct that by installing a D that makes it easier to rebound ???

Two ways to address that:

1. Contract the Zone (and risk opening up more good trey looks)
2. Do the unthinkable in Northern NY and try some man.

For the life of me, I just do not understand why we cant play some man, at least in short stretches to mix things up.

Hell, the one time in Jimmy's life when he made that adjustment we ended up with a National Championship. Why cant we do it now ??????

Good post, but Northern NY??? What in the world??

 

[Sherman20]

Limiting three-point attempts is a better indicator of perimeter defense than how well or poorly a team shoots from deep, because in most cases the defender is so far away from the shooter that there is little they can do to disrupt the shot once the shooter goes up (compared to two-point shots).

The zone has always been bad at limiting threes but it's been especially bad the last several years:

2015: 37.4% of all opponent shots were threes (277th in D1)
2016: 39.7% (309th)
2017: 42.8% (328th)
2018: 44.5% (338th)
2019: 48.1% (347th)
2020: 47.9% (350th)
2021: 44.2% (330th)
2022: 48.7% (357th)
2023: 46.2% (352nd)

Throughout the 2000s we were in the 35-40% range, even after we switched to zone being the full-time D. Basically, as college teams have followed the NBA in terms of being more three-happy than they were before Steph Curry and the Warriors changed everything, the Orange have failed to keep up even by the low standards of the 2-3.

This is the stat analysis that started to open my eyes last season and why I thought it made a ton of sense to play a good bit of man to man this year (once we had some athletes) and why I thought JB might be serious when he said we’d play both man and zone. I think he started to acknowledge the limitations. Then he reversed course. I just don’t think you can play zone full time anymore because of how good teams are at 3 point shooting.

Then again, even within this sample cited in your note, the 2018 team finished 5th nationally in defensive efficiency per KenPom. I wonder if the size and length of our team that season helped bother the shooters more than in recent years.

 

[CardiacCuse]

I will take a challenge and a box out at this point.

boxing out?? what is that????

seriously though, the JB zone takes players at least 2 years to learn, it seems, but this era is year-to-year...

1 year window is the new norm...not enough time to learn to play the zone optimally

AND

everyone is Steph Curry now

PLUS

coaches are smarter than they used to be

 

[Newhouser]

honestly the kid making them from the logo I can sort of live with. Obviously I would rather we at least make him move a little, but chasing someone out there - eh I can live with it.

The issue for me is Jesse is not a deterrent anywhere - top of the key, near the rim,etc.

Also our wings - and I point at Benny and Bell here, are not moving well enough to cover their area. Tough job for forwards in covering the weak side and their corner but corner 3's are killing us and did Saturday.

 

[newmexicuse]

Good post, but Northern NY??? What in the world??

Hey - LOL - I am down here in Florida, I guess I stand corrected and should have said central NY !!!!

But, it all seems northern to me !!!!

 

[newmexicuse]

boxing out?? what is that????

seriously though, the JB zone takes players at least 2 years to learn, it seems, but this era is year-to-year...

1 year window is the new norm...not enough time to learn to play the zone optimally

AND

everyone is Steph Curry now

PLUS

coaches are smarter than they used to be

Not all coaches.

 

[FrancoPizza]

This is the stat analysis that started to open my eyes last season and why I thought it made a ton of sense to play a good bit of man to man this year (once we had some athletes) and why I though JB might be serious when he said we’d play both man and zone. I think he started to acknowledge the limitations. Then he reversed course. I just don’t think you can play zone full time anymore because of how good teams are at 3 point shooting.

Then again, even within this sample cited in your note, the 2018 team finished 5th nationally in defensive efficiency per KenPom. I wonder if the size and length of our team that season helped bother the shooters more than in recent years.

2018 was a lifetime ago

Biggest issue with the zone (then and now) is that it doesn’t run shooters off their spots. They can square up like it’s practice.

 

[Cusefan0307]

The offensive rebounding is a big problem.. We may keep teams fg% down, but when you only rebound 60% of the other teams misses you really didn't finish off a bunch of possessions.

 

[M2MPrinciples]

This is the stat analysis that started to open my eyes last season and why I thought it made a ton of sense to play a good bit of man to man this year (once we had some athletes) and why I though JB might be serious when he said we’d play both man and zone. I think he started to acknowledge the limitations. Then he reversed course. I just don’t think you can play zone full time anymore because of how good teams are at 3 point shooting.

Then again, even within this sample cited in your note, the 2018 team finished 5th nationally in defensive efficiency per KenPom. I wonder if the size and length of our team that season helped bother the shooters more than in recent years.

It's really interesting that in 2018, with the opponent 3PA rate being so high, teams only made 31.8% of their threes, the 17th-lowest in D1 that year. I remember that being a big reason why we got the Sweet 16 (and almost beat Duke, they were a good three-point shooting team that went ice cold that day but we threw the ball all over the court) but I guess it was more prevalent than I recalled.

 

[blizz]

The zone is goverened by the Biot-Savart Law

 

[br801]

This.

You’ve got centers and power forwards shooting the three now.

That's how most teams are constructed now, and certainly seems to be how most coaches want to play against us.

This SU team is on the other end of the spectrum, with one proven volume 3-point threat, and little else. Bell has the potential to be that second guy, which is why he's fed minutes; he's not there yet, but is making progress. Taylor also looks like he could be a solid volume guy, but is probably a year away. Benny and Symir have actually shot decently from deep in limited attempts, but aren't going to command anyone's attention. Judah really needs to develop a viable shot to open things up for himself and the rest of the offense.

 

[orangecuse]

Many great points in this thread, but to me, the bottom line issue is not the Zone per se, but the exclusivity of the Zone. The Zone has two big weaknesses:

1. The three point shooting as discussed
2. Difficulty rebounding

Jimmy in his presser talked about rebounding.

So why in the world would he not correct that by installing a D that makes it easier to rebound ???

Two ways to address that:

1. Contract the Zone (and risk opening up more good trey looks)
2. Do the unthinkable in Northern NY and try some man.

For the life of me, I just do not understand why we cant play some man, at least in short stretches to mix things up.

Hell, the one time in Jimmy's life when he made that adjustment we ended up with a National Championship. Why cant we do it now ??????

Yeah. I mean how many times have we heard over the years (even in years when we were actually good, ranked during the regular season, chasing conference titles, etc.) JB spewing in his pressers rebounding and lack thereof being such a significant factor in taking the L. And, the "we don't box out, we play zone, we guard an area," yada, yada, yada. It's such an inherent deficiency in a zone defense, along with the aforementioned 3 point shooting.

This has always been so incredibly frustrating over the years. However, the overall success of JB/SU basketball, in large, due to the high(er) talent level we had, etc. at least made it somewhat more tolerable.

Nowadays, while on this continuous run of mediocrity along with not being ranked in the regular season since 2014 come January, I have long reached the zero tolerance state of being.

 

[djcon57]

Think of it this way.

Even against this team w/o a ton of shooters...when someone plays zone against us...are you worried or happy?

Personally, if I see them zoning us, I know we can get one of our shooters a look eventually or get a good look at the foul line.

That's what everyone else is thinking about us now.

 

[CuseCPT]

I remember thinking Donte Greene would be Hak 2.0. But he was the first of the new generation that didn't want to be like Mike and play above the rim, they want play beyond the arc.

 

[Scooch]

I suspect the disappearance of the mid-range 2 point shot impacts 3-point shooting percentages as well. Every team knows at this point that the "worst" shot one can take is the mid-range 2, so there are more missed 3s than years ago, but a higher eFG%.

I'm kinda stunned anyone would push back on the idea that 3 point shooting has improved. Whether or not that renders the zone ineffective is a different argument.

 

[DCUNITED13]

Good post, but Northern NY??? What in the world??

Upstate please. LOL

 

[M2MPrinciples]

I suspect the disappearance of the mid-range 2 point shot impacts 3-point shooting percentages as well. Every team knows at this point that the "worst" shot one can take is the mid-range 2, so there are more missed 3s than years ago, but a higher eFG%.

I'm kinda stunned anyone would push back on the idea that 3 point shooting has improved. Whether or not that renders the zone ineffective is a different argument.

Yep. As college continues to mirror the NBA, we're gonna see more polarized offense - Everything either from deep or at the rim. Some programs already run like this, with Alabama coming to mind and some already run it without having top-tier talent (Princeton). The silver lining for Cuse is that as that happens, opposing players should be less comfortable operating in the free throw area that the zone encourages.

Assuming the zone isn't going anywhere until JB retires, the best we can hope for is that the program gets more athletes so that the top of the zone can pick up closer to halfcourt and turn some of those threes into less valuable mid-range shots.

 

[FrancoPizza]

The offensive rebounding is a big problem.. We may keep teams fg% down, but when you only rebound 60% of the other teams misses you really didn't finish off a bunch of possessions.

Defenders of the zone love to preach that rebounding is not part of defense, like it’s some independent statistic.

That’s why defensive efficiency is the only stat that matters. we’re 129th.

 

[Cusefan0307]

70.7 ppg against

127th in adjusted defensive efficiency

11th in 3 point defense in conference play.

 

[hoopsupstate]

Jesse used to block everything in there. He has lost it and needs to find it asap!!

He just blocked five shots two games ago against NC. I don’t think he’s lost it, but he is much less aggressive on the road and more prone to fouling.