The Big Rambling

[TheCusian]

I guess that depends on how you define "strangely." Last year, we lost by an accumulative score of 113-47 against ND, L'ville, FSU and Clemson. And that includes losing to Clemson by "only" 10.

You mentioned the games being blowouts by the half. FSU and ND maybe. L'ville was very close. And Clemson - weren't we leading at the half or close to that?

First SS year we were getting buried by great teams. Last year not so much.

 

[007]

You mentioned the games being blowouts by the half. FSU and ND maybe. L'ville was very close. And Clemson - weren't we leading at the half or close to that?

First SS year we were getting buried by great teams. Last year not so much.

No, I said "I always had a feeling that we would get smoked by half-time." Real or imagined, I never felt that way with DM.

Yes, we were leading at half at Clemson - but, I think they held us to something like a 175 total yards. for the game; we scored 6 total points. Never had the sense we were in that game despite the score and the performance of the their reserve QB. We "hung" with L'ville at the half ( if 3-12 is hanging), lost by 22, scored 6 total points.

 

[baggerbob]

The last 5 games of 2011, after beating West Virginia we scored 81, and gave up 155, so yes we were not good in year 3. People sometimes fail to remember how things actually were, people were saying at the time Doug couldn't do it, then came 2012. The 5 teams we lost to were Louisville, UConn, South Florida, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh, not a great group of teams.

 

[TheCusian]

No, I said "I always had a feeling that we would get smoked by half-time." Real or imagined, I never felt that way with DM. Yes, we were leading at half at Clemson - but, I think they held us to something like a 175 total yards. for the game; we scored 6 total points. Never had the sense we were in that game despite the score and the performance of the their reserve QB. We "hung" with L'ville at the half ( if 3-12 is hanging), lost by 22, scored 6 total points.

Look that's fine - you feel how you feel. But there was a big difference between Shafers two years in actual blowouts vs perceived blowouts due to an inept offense, new OC, injuries, freshman QB's - or all of the above.

The way we lost last year was much different than the first year.

To your point, Marrone's offensive game planning was way better than Shafers with Mcit. We'll see if Lester can rectify that deficiency.

 

[Finwad32]

23 teams were top 70 in offense and top 45 in defense last year

even if you assume that we'll be top 45 in defense, only half of those teams cracked top 70 in offense.

it sounds easier than it actually is. it's part of the reason I want to spend money on offensive coaching. i think it's more repeatable and I accept that there are tradeoffs

Looks like we're gonna be Top 25 this year baby!

 

[TheCusian]

Looks like we're gonna be Top 25 this year baby!

According to Millhouses advanced metric study of coaching and family and indigenous locally grown trees, it's highly unlikely that he'll be even 49% happy with the offensive performance of 38% of the guys we have starting in to what he refers to as "the meathead slot-back".

 

[anomander]

I'm sorry if I come off like a dick. But Shafer's first year we went to a bowl in a much harder league than the big least. And even though we were 8-5 Marrones last year we easily could have lost multiple games as well. Clawed back to win against SFU and UM from what I remember. Also I do not understand how people can just ignore the injuries that happened. and the fact that we had to unmask the Lucha libre (McF&*It) in the OC booth. that being said. We still closed out the recruiting trail with a flip of a Wisconsin Commit, a Commit of a DT over FLA, and started this year with RW. I just don't know what to tell you people that are so down on this program all the damn time.

You say Marrone won games he could have lost, but don't count the fact that the 2013 team got some teams that were severely beat up? And we at least "clawed" back and won games vs USF instesd of getting absolutely manhandled by NW, GT, FSU, and Clemson. Oh and then there was the 3 win team last year. There are very good reasons to be down on the team. To be pleased with it would be pretty delusional.

Personally after year 2 you could tell Marrone had a pretty good chance to be a good college coach, and gave me hope we would be competitive in almost every game.

I have the absolute opposite feelings with Shafer. Hopefully he can turn it around, but I just haven't seen any signs that give me any hope.

 

[BlazeOrange]

What does all that mean for this season? Who knows. But, the people who make predictions on this kind of stuff for a living have put the over/under win total at 4.5.

Could Vegas be way off...absolutely! But, for me at least, that is where "reality" starts.

As a starting point, that's fine. But you have to consider that the people are making their living by predicting what o/u number will produce equal bets on each side of the line, not necessarily the actual number of games they think will be won. Which means they are balancing the optimistic portion of the SU fanbase that gambles against pretty much everyone else at this point.

 

[TheCusian]

You say Marrone won games he could have lost, but don't count the fact that the 2013 team got some teams that were severely beat up? And we at least "clawed" back and won games vs USF instesd of getting absolutely manhandled by NW, GT, FSU, and Clemson. Oh and then there was the 3 win team last year. There are very good reasons to be down on the team. To be pleased with it would be pretty delusional. Personally after year 2 you could tell Marrone had a pretty good chance to be a good college coach, and gave me hope we would be competitive in almost every game. I have the absolute opposite feelings with Shafer. Hopefully he can turn it around, but I just haven't seen any signs that give me any hope.

Most of this board was killing Marrone halfway into his last season. He had some mind-numbing losses during his time. Disaster at the end of 2011 into 2012 and the "hope meter" around here was on life support.

The wins vs USF, Mizzou, and 'Ville did a lot of the perception of his time here - and it came in his 4th year.

 

[007]

As a starting point, that's fine. But you have to consider that the people are making their living by predicting what o/u number will produce equal bets on each side of the line, not necessarily the actual number of games they think will be won. Which means they are balancing the optimistic portion of the SU fanbase that gambles against pretty much everyone else at this point.

Yeah, I understand how Vegas sets lines.

I'm not sure what portion of the SU fan base gets to a sports book and bets the O/U. I'm sure it's somewhat of a factor; doubt it has much of an effect at all on the opening line. If money pours in on one side or the other, the line will be adjusted.

What is relevant is that the number Vegas opens with is not arbitrary. They need to have a realistic starting point based on their unbiased analysis, and then it's likely adjusted up or down a game or .5. Of course they want to create action on both sides of the number. That's always the goal. Does the betting public think that line is depressed because of all the injuries last year; SOS, etc. ? Or is national perception that SU sucks and won't win more than 4 games no matter what?

An opening O/U of 4.5 suggests to me that Vegas thinks we are most likely to win 4 or 5 regular season games this year.

 

[KaiserUEO]

Most of this board was killing Marrone halfway into his last season. He had some mind-numbing losses during his time. Disaster at the end of 2011 into 2012 and the "hope meter" around here was on life support.

The wins vs USF, Mizzou, and 'Ville did a lot of the perception of his time here - and it came in his 4th year.

we were rightfully killing him.

shouldve beat nw & minn, half the board was at the rutgers loss and then barely squeaked by usf to get to 4-4.

that cincy loss was devastating.

needed to beat 1 of #10 lville and a nighter a mizzou to get us to 6 wins.

no Fn way.

he did it, actually swept them and beat wv in the Bronx to get himself a NFL gig.

before he obviously made a complete arse of himself and quit it.