The Bubble

[jncuse]

As I make many references to the Bracket Matrix and the "% of ins" a team currently has, I thought it would be interesting to look at the biggest surprise teams getting in (and missing) in the past 8 years. We can reference the matrix for the last 8 years.

Just because only a few still beleive in a team does not necessarily mean the committee will act the same way.. or vice versa


Biggest Surprise Omissions
2011 Virginia Tech - 98%
2007 Syracuse - 97%
2006 Missouri St - 91%
2011 Colorado - 91%
2006 Cincinnati - 87%
2008 Illinois St - 64%
2012 Seton Hall - 56%
2011 St. Mary's - 55%


Biggest Surprise Additions
2006 Air Force - 0%
2006 Utah St - 0%
2012 Iona - 6%
2011 UAB - 11%
2009 Arizona - 13%
2007 Arkansas - 16%
2011 VCU - 17%

As you can see 2011 was a volatile year. I do remember being one of the few who had VCU (17%) and USC (31%) in - I certainly had Colorado out, but I am fairly certain I still had VTech in. I was not in the matrix in 2011 so I can't check for sure. Can't say I predicted any of the rest -- and that does not mean they were necessarily bad predictions -- it could be more a case of a bad decision.

In 2008 we were only on 3% of the brackets, so it was not a huge surprise when we missed.

 

[jncuse]

As we enter tourney week for the larger conferences, the line looks this:

Out of 97 brackets

IN
SMU 93
Pitt 93
Dayton 93
St. Joes 91
Xavier 90
Nebraska 89
BYU 86
Tennessee 81
Arkansas 48

OUT
Cal 41
Minnesota 21
Providence 10
St. John's 8
Georgetown 7
Green Bay 6
Florida St 3
Utah 3

A bad opening round loss can hurt anybody that is in right now. And a couple tourney wins (including a marquee win) could raise the profile of any of the above teams.

The only OUT team that is done playing for the season is Green Bay. There appears to be many too many teams that need to fail for them to have a shot.

It should be an interesting bubble week starting today.

 

[longtimefan]

In 2008 we were only on 3% of the brackets, so it was not a huge surprise when we missed.

And yet, the stories about the selections that year (after the fact) reported that we were the next team, and knocked out only because Georgia completed their miracle run through the Tornado SEC tournament.

 

[jncuse]

Many of the games today and tomorrow are what I call "Nuisance" games.

For a team that is "in as of now" a win today doesn't really help your resume. But for some teams that is all they need to do this week -- avoid a bad loss and get past the first round

For a team that is "out as of now" a win today won't move you up the ladder much. The bad loss kills them.. the wins only gives them the opportunity they need to take advantage of. These teams need at least two wins this week.

Not many teams on the bubble playing today.

A couple teams needing a win to get a chance at a marquee win

1) Utah vs Washington - The big matchup for Utah this week is vs Arizona tomorrow

If they beat Washington and Arizona, they will garner some attention for the tourney, but may well come up short without another win.

If that happened Utah would have an RPI in the low 70's, 5 top 50 wins, a marquee win, and they only have one bad loss. They will really be hurt by their OOC SOS of 342.

2) Georgetown vs Depaul. The big matchup for Georgetown is tomorrow vs Creighton.

If they win today and beat Creighton tomorrow, they would have 4 top 25 victories, and 6 top 50 wins. Quality OOC schedule as well. It does have 3 bad losses. Beat Creighton and they will have one of the most debated resumes on Sunday.


A couple teams that probably get in either way, but avoiding a bad loss would reduce any stress on Sunday

1) Colorado vs USC -
2) Oklahoma St. vs Texas Tech
3) Stanford vs Washington St

 

[jncuse]

And yet, the stories about the selections that year (after the fact) reported that we were the next team, and knocked out only because Georgia completed their miracle run through the Tornado SEC tournament.

Was that an actual story, or just speculation on an SU Board that we got ousted by Georgia? Because there was a few other teams that had better cases.

The 2008 team was a step below that 2007 team.

 

[Oakland]

Pitt - shouldn't a team with one top 50 win (#45! and in Nov!) and a joke of an OOC schedule be on the bubble? I thought the NCAA was going to make weak OOCs a detriment to getting into the NCAA.

The Bubble is really weak this year, although we seem to say that every year... so perhaps its normal. But at least the bubble picture is wide open as of now. It's almost too difficult to separate.

I know will try to exclude or include teams because they are in Conference "X"... but to me it is always silly to include a bubble team over another because they played in a certain conference. After all, the strenght or weakness of the teams they faced have aleady impacted their resume, so why punish or reward the teams again.

So Pitt lost tonight. Are they on the bubble. Maybe not, but not a lock either... although lose to Clemson and first round of ACC and they will be sweating hard.

Here are the bubble teams according to the Matrix (last updated on Saturday). So there has been some change.

I included all teams that are off at least one of the 68 bracket

IN (out of 68)
St. Joseph's 67
Baylor 67
Oregon 66
Xavier 65
Oklahoma St 65
Cal 63
Minnesota 60
BYU 56
Arkansas 40
Missouri 29

OUT
Providence 27
Tennessee 21
Florida St 15
St. John's 8
Nebraska 7
Dayton 6
Georgetown 6 (although older brackets)
Richmond 1


Notable Wins or Losses since Saturday that are not on considered in Matrix
Xavier lost at Seton Hall
Oklahoma St won vs Kansas St
Pitt loss vs NC St
Dayton won vs UMass
Xavier won vs Creighton
Oklahoma St won vs Kansas

Obviously Oklahoma St solidified itself the most since Saturday and is off the bubble for now. Pitt may not be on it, but has to be pretty damn close.



Any teams that you think should be in the IN category instead of OUT or vice versa? Remember 68 teams are required.

 

[Briancuse]

And yet, the stories about the selections that year (after the fact) reported that we were the next team, and knocked out only because Georgia completed their miracle run through the Tornado SEC tournament.

The funny thing is, I actually rooted for uga to win that game, because I thought we had no shot at getting in.

 

[longtimefan]

Was that an actual story, or just speculation on an SU Board that we got ousted by Georgia? Because there was a few other teams that had better cases.

The 2008 team was a step below that 2007 team.

Well, I'm trusting my memory, which is a dangerous thing to do these days. But I think it was reported in the "media" (online?). Of course, the committee would not confirm.

The reason I remember is how surprised I was. After being whacked by Nova in the first round of the BET, the Orange seemed to have no chance. Made me think that the committee was looking for a "makeup".

 

[jncuse]

Well, I'm trusting my memory, which is a dangerous thing to do these days. But I think it was reported in the "media" (online?). Of course, the committee would not confirm.

The reason I remember is how surprised I was. After being whacked by Nova in the first round of the BET, the Orange seemed to have no chance. Made me think that the committee was looking for a "makeup".

Could be a makeup - I could see how it may have been us. The biggest omission that year according to the Matrix was Illinois St, but the MVC bubble teams have generally not always been treated greatly by the committee (this was back when the MVC was quite a bit better than it is now)

 

[jncuse]

Pitt - shouldn't a team with one top 50 win (#45! and in Nov!) and a joke of an OOC schedule be on the bubble? I thought the NCAA was going to make weak OOCs a detriment to getting into the NCAA.

They are on the bubble, but I think they are on the right side of it (as do most people)

The key for them this week is to avoid that big loss. Hopefully Wake can surprise them tomorrow. I would think they get in after that, despite the limitations you indicate. They have a good 50-100 record, and no bad losses, which offsets some of the issues you bring up.

But there is enough crap on the resume for them to not be 100% comfortable if they don't get past UNC.

 

[jncuse]

Many of the games today and tomorrow are what I call "Nuisance" games.

For a team that is "in as of now" a win today doesn't really help your resume. But for some teams that is all they need to do this week -- avoid a bad loss and get past the first round

For a team that is "out as of now" a win today won't move you up the ladder much. The bad loss kills them.. the wins only gives them the opportunity they need to take advantage of. These teams need at least two wins this week.

Not many teams on the bubble playing today.

A couple teams needing a win to get a chance at a marquee win

1) Utah vs Washington - The big matchup for Utah this week is vs Arizona tomorrow

If they beat Washington and Arizona, they will garner some attention for the tourney, but may well come up short without another win.

If that happened Utah would have an RPI in the low 70's, 5 top 50 wins, a marquee win, and they only have one bad loss. They will really be hurt by their OOC SOS of 342.

2) Georgetown vs Depaul. The big matchup for Georgetown is tomorrow vs Creighton.

If they win today and beat Creighton tomorrow, they would have 4 top 25 victories, and 6 top 50 wins. Quality OOC schedule as well. It does have 3 bad losses. Beat Creighton and they will have one of the most debated resumes on Sunday.


A couple teams that probably get in either way, but avoiding a bad loss would reduce any stress on Sunday

1) Colorado vs USC -
2) Oklahoma St. vs Texas Tech
3) Stanford vs Washington St

So we had 5 teams that were all decent sized / large favourites in games they wanted to have today.

Is it any real surprise that the one team that screws it up is Georgetown. Georgetown is done. 4 bad losses. (5 top 50 wins is not enough to offset this)

 

[jncuse]

Thursday and Friday of tourney week are always the days that have the most relevant action with regards to the bubble as most teams are playing, and some are moving into harder games... and opportunities for marquee wins.

Team on Outside with Top 25 / 50 Win Opportunity on Thursday

Utah vs Arizona - Not sure if this major scalp will be enough, but it will earn them some serious consideration

Cal vs Colorado - Top 50 win, it may temporarily put them at the end of tomorrow. May need to follow it up on Friday




Need Win to get chance for a Major Scalp that may put them over the top. Win tomorrow is not enough / does not help resume .

St. John's vs Providence - Winner should get Nova on Friday. This would be a quality win for either team (knocks out the other), but I think they may need Villanova to put them over the top.

Florida St vs Maryland - Would Play Virginia on Friday

Missouri vs Texas AM - Would play Florida on Friday

Arkansas vs South Carolina - Since they are so close to the line, this SC win may not be enough They will get that chance om Friday vs Tennessee to clinch.

Minnesota vs Penn - Would play Wisconsin on Friday





Currently on right side of bubble, just need to avoid that bad loss this week

Pitt vs Wake Forest

Xavier vs Marquette

Dayton vs Fordham (Although as an A-10 team they could certainly use that St. Joes game to be 100% safe)

 

[jncuse]

Update for Thursday Games

Entering Yesterday's Games (out of 102 Brackets)

IN
SMU 98
Pitt 98
Nebraska 98
Xavier 97
St. Joes 96
Tennessee 87
BYU 84
Arkansas 51

OUT
Cal 43
Minny 24
Providence 11
St. John's 7
Green Bay 6
Florida St 4
Utah 3

"IN" teams that hurt themselves yesterday

#1 ARKANSAS - Suffered the worst below yesterday Only about 50% had them in yesterday, and they suffered a bad loss to South Carolina. For a bubble team Arkansas has a solid Top 50 record of 3-3, and is .500 vs top 100 (8-8) which Is OK. They beat two fellow bubble teams OOC which is really nice to have on the resume (SMU / Minnesota). And before last week they only had one bad loss... only problem is they have 2 bad losses in a row now, giving them 3. They may remain in the conversation

#2 SMU - They may still be in. But that bad loss against Houston will make them a little uneasy this weekend.

Let's start with the big negatives for SMU
1. Horrible OOC Schedule - They went 10-2, but only played 2 sub 100 games, Which was the 2 losses. 5 of the wins were sub 260 (3 sub 300). Best win was RPI #124.
2. 3 bad losses in Conference - Houston #157, Temple #172, South Florida #224.
3. 4-6 vs top 100

The good
1. 4 top 50 wins
2. 23-9 / 12-6 record in a solid league (although that league has 50% good teams, 50% cupcake)

The more I look at this resume, the more I think they should be really uneasy. 4 top 50 wins offset by the 3 bad losses. And they will absolutely get punished if they make the bubble because of that OOC schedule.

In's that solidified themselves
The other teams teams that were "IN" like Pitt, Tennessee, Xavier took out inferior teams which is important. They can't suffer any more bad losses. They are all in very good shape (I think Pitt and Tenn are lock's)

Out's that were eliminated yesterday

St. John's / Providence was a play out game. St. John's lost.

Cal lost to Colorado. They will be deemed out by consensus, but may still have some support.
19-13
RPI low 50's
4-10 Top 50
Only 1 Bad loss

Resume is not that much different than some of those BiG teams like Iowa/Minny. They have the elite win over Arizona. But what does the committee think about teams like Stanford,Oregon, Colorado (the other top 50 wins)?

Utah would probably not have been in if it beat Zona yesterday.- but it was thrashed to make sure there was no debate.

So who replaces Arkansas... and possibly even SMU

Minny did what they had to do to set up the marquee win possibility vs Wisconsin, Beating Penn St does nothing in itself

Providence beat a fellow bubble team. Not sure if that is enough... nor would the win over Seton Hall today. They better not lose today... losing against Nova would be much better than losing to Seton Hall.

I think Providence will take that last spot on the matrix entering today... it will be very close with Minnesota.

2 lower level bubble teams set up marquee win chances today with a victory yesterday
Florida St over Virginia -- they also get an extra top 100 win in the process.
Missouri over Florida

They can really shoot up the conversation with a win today.

 

[NineOneSeven]

I think SMU is a lock.

 

[jncuse]

So the biggest games today:

3 Teams that are Currently Out that can play themselves in
Florida St vs Virginia
Missouri vs Florida
Minnesota vs Wisconsin



Dayton - St. Joes: I think they are both in regardless, but being in the A-10 I think the winner will feel more comfortable

Ohio St - Nebraska - Depending on what happens in some of those above games, Nebraska may want to win to feel safe on Sunday.

Providence - Seton Hall - A win may not help the Friars resume, but a loss certainly would hurt it

 

[jncuse]

I think SMU is a lock.

So did I last night (even after that loss to Houston).

But once I dug down into them this morning, I am not so sure,. Some massive issues, as I mentioned above.
- OOC SOS is horrible
- 3 bad losses.

And while they had 4 quality wins, they are still only 4-6 against top 100 teams...which is below average. Problem with AAC, is that a team like SMU will play 10 of its 18 games against South Florida, Central Florida, Houston, Rutgers and Temple. Basically there is no middle class in that conference. The top 5 teams beat up on the lower class (which they play 55% of the time). They then get quality win opportunities the other 8 games.

With no middle class in the AAC... 11 games are against bad teams... they also had 11 conference games (all its wins)against bad team... 6 of them really bad sub 260 teams. That is 22 of the 32 games.

Is it really that great to get 23 wins, when 22 of your games are against sub 100 teams? Also consider that 19 of those 22 teams are sub 150.

The Memphis, Cincy, UConn (*2) wins are all good, and may be enough to carry them through. But far too many bad things, to say they are a lock at this point (IMO)

Just remember that the committee has denied bubble teams in the past purely because it had a bad OOC. SMU may bypass the conversation because of its win. But if it's get put in that small group for conversation, it may be separated from them purely because of that,