The Coyle decision

[kcsu]

It is counter intuitive but keeping Shafer for another year is the safe call by Coyle. The reasons are simple. The guy has one more year on his contract, He was not Coyles hire, It is easy to extend him with a very small buy out, Coyle buys time to find his coach, If Shafer does great next year Coyle is a genius. If not no big deal Coyle makes his move. If im Coyle unless i can hire my home run pick the safe move is to stay the course as he has zero downside in doing so.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

Especially with all of the higher profile jobs opening up

 

[Crusty]

It is counter intuitive but keeping Shafer for another year is the safe call by Coyle. The reasons are simple. The guy has one more year on his contract, He was not Coyles hire, It is easy to extend him with a very small buy out, Coyle buys time to find his coach, If Shafer does great next year Coyle is a genius. If not no big deal Coyle makes his move. If im Coyle unless i can hire my home run pick the safe move is to stay the course as he has zero downside in doing so.

Made this post in the all inclusive thread.

Does he bet his young career on a coach that he would not have hired? That is really the question he will be asking himself. He is in a position where he has the ability to look at the field and view Shafer as one of the applicants. Does he hire Shafer over all other choices? That is really the question. That is why I think he will opt for his own guy.

 

[kcsu]

Made this pot in the all inclusive thread.

Does he bet his young career on a coach that he would not have hired? That is really the question he will be asking himself. He is in a position where he has the ability to look at the field and view Shafer as one of the applicants. Does he hire Shafer over all other choices? That is really the question. That is why I think he will opt for his own guy.

I see your point. I simply feel that the safe move for Coyle is to keep Shafer another year. The reason is simple. It provides Coyle with two cards at the table. Sure people will complain that he should have been let go after back to back poor seasons. But there is just enough of a reason to keep him another year and by doing so Coyle provides himself with two options as another year is not going to make any difference in the long term success of our program. If on the other hand Coyle lets Shafer go and his choice doesnt pan out Coyle has damaged himself and our program. Not saying he doesnt make the move this year just saying that by staying the course he doesnt damage himself at all.

 

[upperdeck]

this isnt Coyle in a vacuum. i am sure he has enough contacts that he has people better informed than us as to whether regardless of wins/losses it looks./feels like the team is going in the right direction. honestly if the Virg game doesnt get blown down the stretch are we really having this conversation now at 4-5? fans get frustrated and what instant changes, not always for the better good of the teams. it will suck if we somehow got to 5-7 and really should have been looking at a 6-7 win season. it will suck more if we finish 3-9 and both of those games are misplayed down the stretch like the Virg/Pitt games were.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Made this pot in the all inclusive thread.

Does he bet his young career on a coach that he would not have hired? That is really the question he will be asking himself. He is in a position where he has the ability to look at the field and view Shafer as one of the applicants. Does he hire Shafer over all other choices? That is really the question. That is why I think he will opt for his own guy.

Gross was forced into hiring a coach after being on the job for less than a month. He even admitted that he wished he had another year to "survey the landscape" before making a hire.

Coyle has been on the job for less than 5 months. I wonder how his survey is going?

 

[Orangejet]

If Coyle keeps Shafer, expect attendance in the Dome to be around 20k. If the team plays on the road due to Dome renovations, this will not matter. If the team finishes 3 - 9, don't know what will happen but I assume if Shafer stays, wholesale changes will be made to the current staff and my guess will be Bullough, Adam & Reed gonzo...

 

[suorange08]

It is counter intuitive but keeping Shafer for another year is the safe call by Coyle. The reasons are simple. The guy has one more year on his contract, He was not Coyles hire, It is easy to extend him with a very small buy out, Coyle buys time to find his coach, If Shafer does great next year Coyle is a genius. If not no big deal Coyle makes his move. If im Coyle unless i can hire my home run pick the safe move is to stay the course as he has zero downside in doing so.

This is an interesting take. I am curious as to why and how long of an extension? If you are trying to save recruiting then you would have to extend at least 2 or more years (on top of the one left)... which then makes the buyout more. Also, what sign does a multi-year extension send to the fan base, based on Shafer's on-field results?

 

[Crusty]

I see your point. I simply feel that the safe move for Coyle is to keep Shafer another year. The reason is simple. It provides Coyle with two cards at the table. Sure people will complain that he should have been let go after back to back poor seasons. But there is just enough of a reason to keep him another year and by doing so Coyle provides himself with two options as another year is not going to make any difference in the long term success of our program. If on the other hand Coyle lets Shafer go and his choice doesnt pan out Coyle has damaged himself and our program. Not saying he doesnt make the move this year just saying that by staying the course he doesnt damage himself at all.

Don't see it that way at all. Baring some miracle, he will not get much flack for firing Shafer. Unfortunately Shafer has set the bar pretty low for the next guy.

If he doesn't give Shafer an extension he makes him a lame duck and that makes no sense at all. Make no mistake, if he keeps Shafer he has to extent him. This is no time to be wishy washy.

 

[Crusty]

If Coyle keeps Shafer, expect attendance in the Dome to be around 20k. If the team plays on the road due to Dome renovations, this will not matter. If the team finishes 3 - 9, don't know what will happen but I assume if Shafer stays, wholesale changes will be made to the current staff and my guess will be Bullough, Adam & Reed gonzo...

Arguably, Bullough has done a decent job, which is more than can be said of Lester.

 

[jekelish]

I agree with the overall premise here.

Keep in mind, as much as I am in the "give him another year" boat, I FIRMLY believe that next year is make or break. Extend through 2017, but give yourself an easy buy out after next season if things don't turn around. If we miss a bowl next year, move on. If we get to a bowl, you've maintained a little year to year consistency, which is essential in building a program up. We've had two OCs and 7 starting QBs over Shafer's tenure. I'm okay with seeing what happens with staff/player consistency from one year to the next.

But again: next year, it's bowl or you're out.

 

[orangenauburn]

Don't see it that way at all. Baring some miracle, he will not get much flack for firing Shafer. Unfortunately Shafer has set the bar pretty low for the next guy.

If he doesn't give Shafer an extension he makes him a lame duck and that makes no sense at all. Make no mistake, if he keeps Shafer he has to extent him. This is no time to be wishy washy.

Miracle being, Syracuse 24 Clemson 20?

 

[Crusty]

I agree with the overall premise here.

Keep in mind, as much as I am in the "give him another year" boat, I FIRMLY believe that next year is make or break. Extend through 2017, but give yourself an easy buy out after next season if things don't turn around. If we miss a bowl next year, move on. If we get to a bowl, you've maintained a little year to year consistency, which is essential in building a program up. We've had two OCs and 7 starting QBs over Shafer's tenure. I'm okay with seeing what happens with staff/player consistency from one year to the next.

But again: next year, it's bowl or you're out.

That is how a guy who hired Shafer might look at it. But a new AD will ask himself if Shafer is his best choice. I don't see how anybody can say he is the best choice of all the candidates available.

 

[13mike13]

Coyle's decision has to be made already, right? IMO, keeping Shafer as a lame duck head coach would set the program back further than the last two years already has. Is Coyle really willing to bet his tenure (and the program's future) on the low percentage hope that we somehow catch lightning in a bottle next year? This staff grouping has proven itself ineffective from a Xs and Os perspective--bad in-game decision making, terrible staff choices, inabilty to effectively adjust schemes during games, etc. Why would Coyle think any of that will suddenly change between now and August '16? Coyle isn't dumb--he must know every coach in the country will be using Shafer's and the staff's lame duck status against us in the living rooms of recruits this coming recruiting cycle. The Pitt's and Penn State's and BC's of the world don't even have to "bad mouth" Shafer--they can effectively use the turmoil and (likely) impending firing against us in those living rooms. Change is scary, but necessary at this point. The current players will be nervous, and will voice support for Shafer, but in the end it must happen--heck...the players openly supported GERG at the end, and even went out and beat ND on the road as a show of support...but nobody can argue that booting GERG out the door wasn't the correct decision. A fresh start is needed, and needed now.

 

[Chip]

It is counter intuitive but keeping Shafer for another year is the safe call by Coyle. The reasons are simple. The guy has one more year on his contract, He was not Coyles hire, It is easy to extend him with a very small buy out, Coyle buys time to find his coach, If Shafer does great next year Coyle is a genius. If not no big deal Coyle makes his move. If im Coyle unless i can hire my home run pick the safe move is to stay the course as he has zero downside in doing so.

Interesting. Because I pretty much think the exact opposite.

 

[FrancoPizza]

Especially with all of the higher profile jobs opening up

Right, because there will be no high profile openings next year.

 

[anomander]

Interesting. Because I pretty much think the exact opposite.

Me too. There are absolutely 0 good reasons for keeping him. Keeping him and extending him is the opposite of safe. It could be detrimental to the program. Bringing a lame duck HC back will only set us back further. Let's bring in an offensive minded HC that can grow with this current Freshman class. A good HC can win NEXT year, and then start recruiting fresh. Just imagine Shafer trying to recruit next season if he is brought back. He thought coaches were negative recruiting against him last year? Just imagine if he's brought back.

This is the easiest decision Coyle will have in his career. I am sure he already has a list and is going through an extensive vetting process.

 

[anomander]

Especially with all of the higher profile jobs opening up

What does higher profile jobs have to do with Syracuse? We're not competing in the same coaching pool as USC, Miami, So. Carolina etc.

 

[Ottoble]

It is counter intuitive but keeping Shafer for another year is the safe call by Coyle. The reasons are simple. The guy has one more year on his contract, He was not Coyles hire, It is easy to extend him with a very small buy out, Coyle buys time to find his coach, If Shafer does great next year Coyle is a genius. If not no big deal Coyle makes his move. If im Coyle unless i can hire my home run pick the safe move is to stay the course as he has zero downside in doing so.

You should have been advising Gross this is exactly what he should have done too...

 

[orangenirvana]

Especially with all of the higher profile jobs opening up

There are high profile jobs that open up every - single - year.

You have all lost your freakin' minds.

 

[Crusty]

Miracle being, Syracuse 24 Clemson 20?

I would say a miracle would be playing Clemson competitively and beating NCS and BC.

I am not even sure that will do it. You don't send out feelers as a drill, you have to give serious. You know it will get out in the coaching community and don't want to embarrass or undermine your sitting coach unless you are pretty sure you are going in a different direction. You also want to jerk everyone around for drill

 

[qdawgg]

That is how a guy who hired Shafer might look at it. But a new AD will ask himself if Shafer is his best choice. I don't see how anybody can say he is the best choice of all the candidates available.

That is a big deal IMO along with the point others have made before, if he was let go would anyone hire him as a HC?

 

[CuseLegacy]

I would say a miracle would be playing Clemson competitively and beating NCS and BC.

I am not even sure that will do it. You don't send out feelers as a drill, you have to give serious. You know it will get out in the coaching community and don't want to embarrass or undermine your sitting coach unless you are pretty sure you are going in a different direction. You also want to jerk everyone around for drill

Just curious how do you know that feelers have already been sent out... besides rumors posted on here. And It isn't like Shafer doesn't have some influential people supporting him either.

 

[qdawgg]

Another thing to consider. If we win only 3 - 4 games this year and Shafer then goes on to win 5 - 6 next year, is it then harder justifying letting him go even if he feels thats the right choice. I think that's a huge gamble because with only 3 wins this year (potentially) anything above that next year can be argued is moving the program in the right direction.

 

[orangenirvana]

It is counter intuitive but keeping Shafer for another year is the safe call by Coyle. The reasons are simple. The guy has one more year on his contract, He was not Coyles hire, It is easy to extend him with a very small buy out, Coyle buys time to find his coach, If Shafer does great next year Coyle is a genius. If not no big deal Coyle makes his move. If im Coyle unless i can hire my home run pick the safe move is to stay the course as he has zero downside in doing so.

You need two years to find a coach? Cripes, it took me 15 minutes to come up with the best 20 candidates. If Coyle wants, I can send it to him. He can use his own connections to find a way to contact them all to gauge interest. We should already know the budget and how much we can afford to pay. This isn't rocket science.

And there's no way in hell "Shafer does great next year." Giving him another year just delays the inevitable and wastes time and likely money.

You should have been advising Gross this is exactly what he should have done too...

Yeah Gerg should have received more time he would have turned it around for sure.