The decision to punt..

[BostonOrange]

Ok so tell me what I'm missing...

3:03 to go, fourth and 7 at your own 42. If PSU gets the ball back a first down wins the game. If PSU gets the ball back and you stop them they are going to punt it back to you, and you will get the ball back with approx 2 minutes to go with no to's.

So, what you gain by punting is 30 yards of field position if you stop them. What you lose is that if they get a first down you lose the game, and you lose the chance of converting the first down.

What you gain by going for it is the chance of converting and having a first down at midfield with 3 minutes left and two timeouts. What you lose is 30 yards of field position if you don't convert and you are then able to stop PSU.

Doesn't that suggest that it is entirely illogical to punt?? The cost\benefit just doesn't make sense.

 

[upperdeck]

if you stop them they also can kick the fg and win the game.. it was the right call given the players we have on the field.. much different with last years offense.. the D already took the ball away and helped us score what should have been 2 td's

 

[Millhouse]

Ok so tell me what I'm missing...

3:03 to go, fourth and 7 at your own 42. If PSU gets the ball back a first down wins the game. If PSU gets the ball back and you stop them they are going to punt it back to you, and you will get the ball back with approx 2 minutes to go with no to's.

So, what you gain by punting is 30 yards of field position if you stop them. What you lose is that if they get a first down you lose the game, and you lose the chance of converting the first down.

What you gain by going for it is the chance of converting and having a first down at midfield with 3 minutes left and two timeouts. What you lose is 30 yards of field position if you don't convert and you are then able to stop PSU.

Doesn't that suggest that it is entirely illogical to punt?? The cost\benefit just doesn't make sense.

The punt crowd assumes that you will get a three and out after kicking and assumes you won't after missing a fourth down conversion. Trusting your defense only counts if you kick

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[orangenirvana]

I was fine with it. Offense was struggling to pick up 3 yards per play all day, much less 7. Don't convert the 4th and 7 and it's over.

 

[Scooch]

It wasn't a good decision. That being said, at that point I trusted the D more to get a turnover for a score than I did the O being able to do a damn thing. So as much as I usually get furious about that kind of stuff, I didn't today.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Ok so tell me what I'm missing...

3:03 to go, fourth and 7 at your own 42. If PSU gets the ball back a first down wins the game. If PSU gets the ball back and you stop them they are going to punt it back to you, and you will get the ball back with approx 2 minutes to go with no to's.

So, what you gain by punting is 30 yards of field position if you stop them. What you lose is that if they get a first down you lose the game, and you lose the chance of converting the first down.

What you gain by going for it is the chance of converting and having a first down at midfield with 3 minutes left and two timeouts. What you lose is 30 yards of field position if you don't convert and you are then able to stop PSU.

Doesn't that suggest that it is entirely illogical to punt?? The cost\benefit just doesn't make sense.

As opposed to the analyst, I thought Cuse should punt. The defense had played well, there was still "enough" time and I thought going for it was more of a panic move. However, I can see where this decision would have been 50/50. Bottom line is the team has some work to do on its 2 minute drill.

 

[Full_Rebar]

Punting was the right call in that situation today. If it was 4th and short, that's different, but 4th and 7 with the way our offense looked, I'm fine with the decision.

 

[upperdeck]

and you can add field position to the equation.. good chance that at our 40 PSU throws and also goes for it on 4th.. on their own 20 they ran 3 times..

 

[Todd Gack]

Ok so tell me what I'm missing...

3:03 to go, fourth and 7 at your own 42. If PSU gets the ball back a first down wins the game. If PSU gets the ball back and you stop them they are going to punt it back to you, and you will get the ball back with approx 2 minutes to go with no to's.

So, what you gain by punting is 30 yards of field position if you stop them. What you lose is that if they get a first down you lose the game, and you lose the chance of converting the first down.

What you gain by going for it is the chance of converting and having a first down at midfield with 3 minutes left and two timeouts. What you lose is 30 yards of field position if you don't convert and you are then able to stop PSU.

Doesn't that suggest that it is entirely illogical to punt?? The cost\benefit just doesn't make sense.

First off, let me say I was surprised we punted. That said, Shafer must've liked our chances of forcing a three-and-out more than converting a fourth and seven. As it turns out, we traded less than one minute of clock and two timeouts to get the ball from where we punted (with a new set of downs) -- we had plenty of time to score a touchdown, but didn't.

This "play the percentages" argument reminds me of a conversation Boeheim had on his radio show a few years ago about what constitutes a good offense. "Anything that creates a good shot" was his answer. And while it's not a perfect analogy, I'm also reminded of the scene from "Christmas Vacation" where they're driving and slide under a semi. Beverly D'Angelo's character says something to the effect of, "Clark, we're under a truck" -- to which he responds, "Do you honestly think I don't know that?" Shafer has been in the game long enough to ponder all the possibilities -- and he picked one (whether you agree with it or not) that put us in a position to win the game. Who knows what he'll decide to do next time.

 

[upperdeck]

we have had nothing but bad things to say about our offense yet everyone wants to ut the offense in a tough spot to win the game.. it turned out we gave them a much better chance to win later so how can it be a bad decision.

 

[BostonOrange]

and you can add field position to the equation.. good chance that at our 40 PSU throws and also goes for it on 4th.. on their own 20 they ran 3 times..

That is actually a good point. I don't think it sways the odds enough to make punting the right move, but for sure they could have been more aggressive if they had been on our 40. On your previous point though I can't imagine PSU would have kicked a 52 yard FG in that situation...they'd have punted.

 

[Millhouse]

I was fine with it. Offense was struggling to pick up 3 yards per play all day, much less 7. Don't convert the 4th and 7 and it's over.

How do figure it's over if you don't convert?

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[BostonOrange]

How do figure it's over if you don't convert?

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that's what people seem not to be getting. The only thing you give up is field position. Not to say that is insignificant but it isn't game ending.

 

[Todd Gack]

that's what people seem not to be getting. The only thing you give up is field position. Not to say that is insignificant but it isn't game ending.

Because if they punt the ball inside the 10 you now have to go 90 yards without any timeouts.

 

[dasher]

It's a bad situition. Both sides have a argument. The fact that the pro go for it crowd can't get that boggles my mind. I was cool either way.

 

[Todd Gack]

Because if they punt the ball inside the 10 you now have to go 90 yards without any timeouts.

I'm all for people saying you wish he'd gone for it -- but Shafer's decision not to still put us in a great position to win. If coaching were simply a mathematical exercise, Nate Silver would be on every ADs' short list.

 

[Full_Rebar]

As mentioned by others, you think O'Brien might call something other than 3 conservative runs if he's not deep in his own territory with a frosh QB? I don't think you can take all the factors out of the decision. SU got the ball back in good position with plenty of time to win the game.

Now, if you punt the ball against Boyd and Clemson in a similar situation, maybe it's a different story.

 

[RF2044]

How do figure it's over if you don't convert?

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Because then all they have to do is go about 15 yards to kick a FG / tack on points that makes it a two score game and puts victory out of reach.

 

[Scooch]

Because then all they have to do is go about 15 yards to kick a FG / tack on points that makes it a two score game and puts victory out of reach.

Well, if they go 15 yards after you punt then they convert a first down and the game's over then too. In that spot PSU getting any first down ends the game, just depends if you want them to do that at their 25 or your 40.

 

[RF2044]

Well, if they go 15 yards after you punt then they convert a first down and the game's over then too. In that spot PSU getting any first down ends the game, just depends if you want them to do that at their 25 or your 40.

Not necessarily, with a pair of time outs and more than 3 minutes of game time when the punt occurs.

The staff gambled on [1] the D's ability to hold them to 3 and out, and [2] that after being pinned back, PSU would play ultra-conservative with the lead and a true frosh QB. The gamble paid off, we just couldn't move the ball--which was the case all game.

Regardless, while a risk, punting the ball wasn't as off the wall as some suggest.

 

[BostonOrange]

It's a bad situition. Both sides have a argument. The fact that the pro go for it crowd can't get that boggles my mind. I was cool either way.

ehh...I don't think there is a realistic argument for punting in that situation. I do agree with some of the other posts that you can't always boil everything down to math - you have to consider how your team is playing that day, etcetc, but in this case I think punting absolutely decreases the odds of winning the game.

 

[MadNY3]

Ok so tell me what I'm missing...

3:03 to go, fourth and 7 at your own 42. If PSU gets the ball back a first down wins the game. If PSU gets the ball back and you stop them they are going to punt it back to you, and you will get the ball back with approx 2 minutes to go with no to's.

So, what you gain by punting is 30 yards of field position if you stop them. What you lose is that if they get a first down you lose the game, and you lose the chance of converting the first down.

What you gain by going for it is the chance of converting and having a first down at midfield with 3 minutes left and two timeouts. What you lose is 30 yards of field position if you don't convert and you are then able to stop PSU.

Doesn't that suggest that it is entirely illogical to punt?? The cost\benefit just doesn't make sense.

Whatever. This did not cost us the game. We got the ball back and threw it away. Literally.

 

[Scooch]

Not necessarily, with a pair of time outs and more than 3 minutes of game time when the punt occurs.

The staff gambled on [1] the D's ability to hold them to 3 and out, and [2] that after being pinned back, PSU would play ultra-conservative with the lead and a true frosh QB. The gamble paid off, we just couldn't move the ball--which was the case all game.

Regardless, while a risk, punting the ball wasn't as off the wall as some suggest.

Like I said, I wasn't all that upset by it. When Marrone did it when we had a good offense I'd get upset, but our O was so putrid that I don't blame Shafer for putting it on the D.

 

[RF2044]

ehh...I don't think there is a realistic argument for punting in that situation. I do agree with some of the other posts that you can't always boil everything down to math - you have to consider how your team is playing that day, etcetc, but in this case I think punting absolutely decreases the odds of winning the game.

Did it decrease the odds of winning the game in today's example [instead of talking about the decision hypothetically, in a vacuum]?

We got the ball back with very solid field position, with sufficient time to put together a drive. We just couldn't move the ball, which unfortunately was pretty much the case for the whole game.

 

[Bayside44]

Ok so tell me what I'm missing...

3:03 to go, fourth and 7 at your own 42. If PSU gets the ball back a first down wins the game. If PSU gets the ball back and you stop them they are going to punt it back to you, and you will get the ball back with approx 2 minutes to go with no to's.

So, what you gain by punting is 30 yards of field position if you stop them. What you lose is that if they get a first down you lose the game, and you lose the chance of converting the first down.

What you gain by going for it is the chance of converting and having a first down at midfield with 3 minutes left and two timeouts. What you lose is 30 yards of field position if you don't convert and you are then able to stop PSU.

Doesn't that suggest that it is entirely illogical to punt?? The cost\benefit just doesn't make sense.

It did work, BOB wasn't going to call anything other than what he did. And not like our offense was marching up and down the field at that point.

 

[OrangeCrush22]

The defense had a better chance of scoring than the offense did. I thought Shafer made the right call. And with hindsight being 20/20 he clearly made the correct call. The offense just couldn't capitalize.