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Message: [QUOTE="SWC75, post: 2898644, member: 289"] I last looked at the issue of SU’s free throw percentages vs. NCAA norms in 2011. I’ve been asked to update this study and have more information not only for subsequent seasons but also for some historical seasons so here goes. Links: SU’s historical numbers back to the 1947-48 season: [URL="http://www.orangehoops.org/Syracuse%20Team%20Season%20Statistics.htm"]Syracuse Orange Basketball Team Season Statistics[/URL] Historical NCAA numbers, (page 69): [URL]http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/m_basketball_RB/2019/D1.pdf[/URL] Information about SU’s opponents: [URL="https://cuse.com/sports/2009/2/3/sidebar_52.aspx?path=mbasket"]Year-by-Year Statistics/Final Release[/URL] I have some SU yearbooks/media guides dating back to the 1968-69 season but not all of them. I also have my 2011 study. Putting all of that together: SU vs. the average free throw percentage and their opponent’s free throw percentage: 1947-48 SU: .605 Nation: .598 Difference: +.007 1948-49 SU: .597 Nation: .616 Difference: -.019 1949-50 SU: .611 Nation: .618 Difference: -.007 1950-51 SU: .642 Nation: .628 Difference: +.014 1951-52 SU: .687 Nation: .626 Difference: +.061 1952-53 SU: .644 Nation: .640 Difference: +.004 1953-54 SU: .634 Nation: .652 Difference: -.018 1954-55 SU: .642 Nation: .665 Difference: -.023 1955-56 SU: .607 Nation: .668 Difference: -.061 1956-57 SU: .671 Nation: .673 Difference: -.002 1957-58 SU: .647 Nation: .664 Difference: -.017 1958-59 SU: .681 Nation: .671 Difference: +.010 1959-60 SU: .700 Nation: .674 Difference: +.026 1960-61 SU: .673 Nation: .682 Difference: -.009 1961-62 SU: .680 Nation: .679 Difference: +.001 1962-63 SU: .650 Nation: .682 Difference: -.032 1963-64 SU: .700 Nation: .683 Difference: +.017 1964-65 SU: .704 Nation: .690 Difference: +.014 1965-66 SU: .712 Nation: .692 Difference: +.020 Opponents: .697 Difference from SU: +.015 1966-67 SU: .723 Nation: .690 Difference: +.033 1967-68 SU: .747 Nation: .691 Difference: +.056 Opponents: .727 Difference from SU: +.020 1968-69 SU: .694 Nation: .684 Difference: +.010 Opponents: .682 Difference from SU: +.012 1969-70 SU: .659 Nation: .687 Difference: -.028 Opponents: .717 Difference from SU: -.058 1970-71 SU: .686 Nation: .681 Difference: +.005 Opponents: .738 Difference from SU: -.052 1971-72 SU: .747 Nation: .686 Difference: +.061 Opponents: .675 Difference from SU: +.072 1972-73 SU: .699 Nation: .684 Difference: +.015 1973-74 SU: .638 Nation: .684 Difference: -.046 1974-75 SU: .671 Nation: .690 Difference: -.019 1975-76 SU: .635 Nation: .692 Difference: -.057 1976-77 SU: .675 Nation: .694 Difference: -.019 1977-78 SU: .675 Nation: .692 Difference: -.017 1978-79 SU: .712 Nation: .697 Difference: +.015 1979-80 SU: .719 Nation: .696 Difference: +.023 Opponents: .698 Difference from SU: +.021 1980-81 SU: .750 Nation: .689 Difference: +.061 Opponents: .701 Difference from SU: +.049 1981-82 SU: .711 Nation: .686 Difference: +.015 Opponents: .686 Difference from SU: +.025 1982-83 SU: .713 Nation: .685 Difference: +.028 Opponents: .704 Difference from SU: +.009 1983-84 SU: .751 Nation: .689 Difference: +.062 Opponents: .683 Difference from SU: +.068 1984-85 SU: .715 Nation: .689 Difference: +.026 Opponents: .697 Difference from SU: +.015 1985-86 SU: .686 Nation: .691 Difference: -.005 Opponents: .701 Difference from SU: -.010 1986-87 SU: .650 Nation: .691 Difference: -.041 Opponents: .694 Difference from SU: -.044 1987-88 SU: .600 Nation: .689 Difference: -.089 Opponents: .671 Difference from SU: -.071 1988-89 SU: .612 Nation: .691 Difference: -.079 Opponents: .680 Difference from SU: -.068 1989-90 SU: .647 Nation: .689 Difference: -.042 Opponents: .739 Difference from SU: -.092 1990-91 SU: .645 Nation: .686 Difference: -.041 Opponents: .661 Difference from SU: -.016 1991-92 SU: .685 Nation: .681 Difference: +.004 Opponents: .675 Difference from SU: +.006 1992-93 SU: .686 Nation: .677 Difference: +.009 Opponents: .675 Difference from SU: +.011 1993-94 SU: .715 Nation: .671 Difference: +.044 Opponents: .657 Difference from SU: +.058 1994-95 SU: .662 Nation: .676 Difference: -.014 Opponents: .701 Difference from SU: -.039 1995-96 SU: .705 Nation: .674 Difference: +.031 Opponents: .627 Difference from SU: +.078 1996-97 SU: .642 Nation: .674 Difference: -.032 Opponents: .688 Difference from SU: -.046 1997-98 SU: .676 Nation: .675 Difference: +.001 Opponents: .652 Difference from SU: +.024 1998-99 SU: .663 Nation: .678 Difference: -.015 Opponents: .694 Difference from SU: -.031 1999-00 SU: .705 Nation: .681 Difference: +.024 Opponents: .669 Difference from SU: +.036 2000-01 SU: .715 Nation: .685 Difference: +.030 Opponents: .654 Difference from SU: +.061 2001-02 SU: .650 Nation: .690 Difference: -.040 Opponents: .682 Difference from SU: -.032 2002-03 SU: .694 Nation: .694 Difference: none Opponents: .652 Difference from SU: +.042 2003-04 SU: .643 Nation: .688 Difference: -.045 Opponents: .670 Difference from SU: +.027 2004-05 SU: .667 Nation: .687 Difference: -.020 Opponents: .677 Difference from SU: -.010 2005-06 SU: .643 Nation: .691 Difference: -.048 Opponents: .701 Difference from SU: -.058 2006-07 SU: .695 Nation: .690 Difference: +.005 Opponents: .630 Difference from SU: +.060 2007-08 SU: .668 Nation: .691 Difference: -.023 Opponents: .696 Difference from SU: -.028 2008-09 SU: .645 Nation: .690 Difference: -.045 Opponents: .630 Difference from SU: +.015 2009-10 SU: .677 Nation: .689 Difference: -.012 Opponents: .637 Difference from SU: +.040 2010-11 SU: .665 Nation: .693 Difference: -.028 Opponents: .697 Difference from SU: +.015 2011-12 SU: .698 Nation: .691 Difference: +.007 Opponents: .676 Difference from SU: +.022 2012-13 SU: .675 Nation: .693 Difference: -.018 Opponents: .673 Difference from SU: +.002 2013-14 SU: .708 Nation: .698 Difference: +.010 Opponents: .668 Difference from SU: +.040 2014-15 SU: .660 Nation: .692 Difference: -.032 Opponents: .704 Difference from SU: +.044 2015-16 SU: .688 Nation: .699 Difference: -.011 Opponents: .666 Difference from SU: +.022 2016-17 SU: .738 Nation: .704 Difference: +.034 Opponents: .658 Difference from SU: +.080 2017-18 SU: .736 Nation: .713 Difference: +.023 Opponents: .731 Difference from SU: +.005 2018-19 SU: .684 Nation: .702 Difference: -.018 Opponents: .690 Difference from SU: -.006 (For 2018-19 I could not find an overall NCAA percentage so I used the percentage of the 177th ranked of 353 teams.) Let’s focus on the Boeheim Era: Syracuse has hit 68.3% of their free throws in the Boeheim Era. The Nation has hit 68.9%. The opposition, (for the years for which I have information), has hit 67.9%.We’ve out-shot the nation 19 times, failed to match them 23 times and broken even once. We’ve out-shot the opposition 26 times, (including the last 8 years in a row before this one) and lost that battle 14 times. So far this year we have averaged 21.5 field goal attempts to 18.0 for the opposition. That means that any deficit in percentage, (and they tend to be slight), is likely erased because we get more attempts. How much of a difference in percentage is significant? Let’s say that a team averages 20 free throw attempts per game. Each made shot increases your free throw percentage by 50 points. Thus any difference of less than 50 points is statistically insignificant. We have differed from the national average by that amount four times: 1980-81, 1983-84, 1987-88 and 1988-89. SU was above the national average in the first two years and the latter two teams are among our best ever. We would trade this year’s roster for the roster we had in those two years in a New York nanosecond. We topped our opposition by that margin in 1983-84, 1993-94, 1995-96, 2000-01, 2006-07, 2016-17 and lost that stat by that margin in 1987-88, 1988-89, 1989-90 and 2005-06. That’s 11 seasons out of 40/43 where the difference was statistically significant and the difference was in our favor in 7 of those seasons. In 1987-88 they scored 574 points from the foul line to 435 for their opponents because of the number of attempts they had, (957-648). In 1988-89 they outscored the opposition 599-555 from the line. In 1989-90 it was 577-546. The only year we’ve been both out-shot by at least 5% from the line and outscored from the line was 2005-06, (449-525). They keys to doing well at the line would tend to be getting the right guys to the line and getting the ball to the right guy when protecting a lead at the end of the game. When we have big men or good drivers who can hit free throws, our percentage is high. If we can have a “closer” like Gerry McNamara all we have to do is inbound the ball to him and he’ll make the free throws. He was 88.8% for his career and probably 98.8% in the last minute of a game. At the same time, our best perimeter shooting teams, like the early 80’s, have been good free throw shooting teams. If we have a “Hack-aShaq” guy, our percentage goes down. The frustrating thing about this year, (2018-19), is that we have several guys who are not shooting as well from the line as they did last year: Tyus Battle was .839 last year. He’s .789 this year. That’s -.050 Oshae Brissett was .787, is .681 = -.107 Frank Howard was .719, is .714 = -.005 Paschal Chukwu was .632, is .596 = -.036 Marek Dolezaj was .711, is .500 = -.211 Bourama Sidibe was .475, is .424 = .051 But the team was .736, is .684 = -.052, essentially I point a game worse. [/QUOTE]

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