The Downside (Montana State)

[SWC75]

- We were able to go inside in this game but the three-pointer is still the key for this team’s success. In the last three games we are 5 for 26, 7 for 21 and now 7 for 25, a total of 17 for 72, (23.6%). We’d better snap out of this before the ACC grind begins.

- The big lead obscured that we missed 13 of 24 free throws. It also helped that Montana State missed 9 of 14. That’s 22 missed free throws in the Dome this evening vs. 16 makes. Charley Brown could do better.

- We outrebounded another small team by only 48-45. Again, you keep asking the only relevant question: what if we’d been playing an ACC team tonight? That’s who we’re going to have to start beating after this next game.

- We were +4 in turnovers as we only had 7. But you’d like to force more than 11 turnovers against a team like this.

- The two guys I think could most improve the team are Tyler Roberson and Mal Richardson. Tonight they were 4 for 12 and scored 12 points between them. They should carve up a team like this.

- One more game to splash around in the shallow end of the pool. They we find out if we can swim.

 

[bballbeadle]

I am mystified by our crappy 3 point shooting percentage. How could we have been so awesome in Atlantis and then become . . . what we are?

 

[CusefanATL]

you forgot "gave up 17 offensive boards"

 

[cliftonparksufan]

I am mystified by our crappy 3 point shooting percentage. How could we have been so awesome in Atlantis and then become . . . what we are?

Soft rims. Besides that, it is mystifying.

 

[CusefanATL]

Soft rims. Besides that, it is mystifying.

smaller "gym" helps too

 

[SWC75]

you forgot "gave up 17 offensive boards"

We had 18 of them. If you add our offensive rebounds to their defensive rebounds and figure the percentage, we rebounded 18 of 46 misses (39%) and they rebounded 17 of 47, (36%). Against Cornell it was 49% to 22.5%.

 

[CusefanATL]

We had 18 of them. If you add our offensive rebounds to their defensive rebounds and figure the percentage, we rebounded 18 of 46 misses (39%) and they rebounded 17 of 47, (36%). Against Cornell it was 49% to 22.5%.

at the half we had 11 offensive rebounds and they had 10. I've never looked closely, but I can't imagine there being too many games with 21 offensive rebounds in a half.

 

[SWC75]

at the half we had 11 offensive rebounds and they had 10. I've never looked closely, but I can't imagine there being too many games with 21 offensive rebounds in a half.

It's easier to imagine with 48 points scored in the half.

 

[SaltLakeOrange]

I am mystified by our crappy 3 point shooting percentage. How could we have been so awesome in Atlantis and then become . . . what we are?

I'm more disturbed about our horrible free throw shooting. Everyone harps about needing to attack the glass. When we do, and get fouled, it's imperative that we make our free throws. We need to be at least a 75% free throw shooting team. And now we aren't even close.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

smaller "gym" helps too

This just can't be stated often enough. I imagine it is hard to shoot at the Dome. Those giant expanses behind the hoops mess a shooter's perspective up badly.

 

[pfister1]

This just can't be stated often enough. I imagine it is hard to shoot at the Dome. Those giant expanses behind the hoops mess a shooter's perspective up badly.

IMO that is an excuse without much merit. (1) If you are dialed in you are focused on the rim and not even seeing background. (2) it's our home court so guys have been shooting in that environment since November and for some for 4+ years. (3) lots of guys come in on opposing teams and have no problem.

 

[pfister1]

I'm more disturbed about our horrible free throw shooting. Everyone harps about needing to attack the glass. When we do, and get fouled, it's imperative that we make our free throws. We need to be at least a 75% free throw shooting team. And now we aren't even close.

For the season we are shooting 64% and and it feels like we are leaving a ton of points on the court. I don't think this team can afford to look gift points in the mouth. If I were an opposing coach I would never let Roberson have an easy basket...ever.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

IMO that is an excuse without much merit. (1) If you are dialed in you are focused on the rim and not even seeing background. (2) it's our home court so guys have been shooting in that environment since November and for some for 4+ years. (3) lots of guys come in on opposing teams and have no problem.

And yet we are terrible shooters in the dome. I really don't understand it, unless all of their practices are at the Melo Center.

I would like to see the stats of other teams shooting 3s at the Dome. It does seem like teams can go off on us from time to time.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I don't think the team 3pt% is an issue. Mike and Trevor were 3-8 and 3-6. Lydon made one as well.

It's a real struggle for Malachi right now. He's not a good three point shooter......yet.

He's basically the opposite of Cooney. He struggles off the catch and seems to need to dribble to get himself in rhythm.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

IMO that is an excuse without much merit. (1) If you are dialed in you are focused on the rim and not even seeing background. (2) it's our home court so guys have been shooting in that environment since November and for some for 4+ years. (3) lots of guys come in on opposing teams and have no problem.

I disagree. It does appear that different venues can have an effect on percentages. We have gone on two trips down south where they claimed the rims had something to do with increased percentages. And conversely for an example on the other extreme remember the terrible shooting percentages when we played on the boat.

SWC did a detailed analysis on FT% at one point. It showed a significant decrease in the dome vs outside. This was a multiple season analysis (I think through the JB era).

 

[OttoMets]

Roberson's not a part of the offense, so it'll be hard for him to carve anybody up.

 

[SWC75]

I disagree. It does appear that different venues can have an effect on percentages. We have gone on two trips down south where they claimed the rims had something to do with increased percentages. And conversely for an example on the other extreme remember the terrible shooting percentages when we played on the boat.

SWC did a detailed analysis on FT% at one point. It showed a significant decrease in the dome vs outside. This was a multiple season analysis (I think through the JB era).

I don't remember that one. I remember posting NCAA numbers over the years to show that people's expectations for free throws are kind of high. One poster above says we should be making 75%. There's never been a year when the NCAA as a whole made 70%. We are currently shooting 67.4%, not 64% as one poster put it.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

I don't remember that one. I remember posting NCAA numbers over the years to show that people's expectations for free throws are kind of high. One poster above says we should be making 75%. There's never been a year when the NCAA as a whole made 70%. We are currently shooting 67.4%, not 64% as one poster put it.

SWC - my apologies- I thought you ran an analysis and post about the dome percentages for both SU and opponents for FTs. It also covered SU home vs away. It was a very interesting post.

Still, even without support, I still think the dome would be slightly below average in terms of a shooting venue.

 

[SWC75]

SWC - my apologies- I thought you ran an analysis and post about the dome percentages for both SU and opponents for FTs. It also covered SU home vs away. It was a very interesting post.

Still, even without support, I still think the dome would be slightly below average in terms of a shooting venue.

Maybe Millhouse? or someone posted an article?

 

[pfister1]

I don't remember that one. I remember posting NCAA numbers over the years to show that people's expectations for free throws are kind of high. One poster above says we should be making 75%. There's never been a year when the NCAA as a whole made 70%. We are currently shooting 67.4%, not 64% as one poster put it.

You are right 64% is our opponents percentage. I didn't read the stats correctly.

 

[SWC75]

I found this, which I did in 2012, (and have now updated). it doesn't contain home road numbers but suggests from our and our opposition's numbers that the Dome may make a difference in free throw shooting. (By the way the 64% figure is what the opposition is hooting- not what we are shooting.)


A poster suggested that free throw problems have been chronic through Jim Boeheim’s coaching career. I decided to look at the numbers.

Here are the season free throw percentages for Syracuse, its opponents and NCAA Division 1 for the last 33 years prior to this season. The sources are the SU media Guide, (the numbers are also on the website) and the 2015-2016 NCAA Men’s Basketball Record Book.

YEAR SYRACUSE OPPONENT NCAA
1982-83 .712 .704 .685
1983-84 .751 .683 .689
1984-85 .715 .697 .689
1985-86 .686 .701 .691
1986-87 .650 .694 .691
1987-88 .600 .671 .689
1988-89 .611 .680 .691
1989-90 .647 .739 .689
1990-91 .645 .661 .686
1991-92 .685 .675 .681
1992-93 .686 .675 .677
1993-94 .715 .657 .671
1994-95 .662 .701 .676
1995-96 .705 .627 .674
1996-97 .642 .688 .674
1997-98 .676 .652 .675
1998-99 .663 .694 .678
1999-00 .705 .669 .681
2000-01 .715 .654 .685
2001-02 .650 .682 .690
2002-03 .694 .652 .694
2003-04 .643 .701 .691
2004-05 .667 .677 .687
2005-06 .643 .701 .691
2006-07 .695 .630 .690
2007-08 .668 .696 .691
2008-09 .645 .630 .690
2009-10 .677 .627 .689
2010-11 .665 .667 .693
2011-12 .698 .676 .691
2012-13 .675 .673 .693
2013-14 .708 .668 .698
2014-15 .660 .704 .692
Average .675 .675 .686

2015-16 .674 .644 unknown

(I averaged the percentages. I didn’t add up the attempts and makes over 30 years and re-compute the percentage.)

For all our angst over free throw shooting over the years, there is no net difference between our free throw percentage over the years and that of our opponents. I didn’t compute it over the conference season because this is one stat that should not be affected by the strength of the opponent. Alcorn State should be able to hit free throws as well as Louisville. It’s interesting that both SU and the opponents are significantly behind the NCAA average for the same period. I’ve heard that the Carrier Dome background is not conducive to three point shooting. The same may be true for free throws.

But the idea that free throw shooting has chronically plagued SU over the years and Jim Boeheim doesn’t know how to teach it is not supported by the historical record. We all can remember when missed free throws might have cost us games, (you don’t have to think back very far) but we don’t remember the times it cost the other team. A big factor from year to year is who is getting fouled. It helps to have a big man, (like Hakim Warrick) who can make them pay or a point guard who is nearly automatic, (Gerry McNamara). Stationary jump shooters like Matt Roe might be great at shooting fouls but it barely matters because they don’t get to the line. If you’ve got a guy who gets fouled and can’t make them like Arinze Onuaku or Stevie Thompson, it can be painful to watch.

So far this season we are hitting .674 and the opposition is hitting .644, so we’ve actually had the advantage at the line. I don’t see anybody on this team with bad form or a psychological block. Sometimes it’s just a matter of concentration and confidence. Sometimes if one guy starts making them- or missing them- everyone does. I don’t think it’s a reflection on coaching.

 

[pfister1]

One thing I loved about the GMAC years was at the end of the game with a lead you got the ball into his hands and he was money at the line.

I'm sure to a degree there is a failure bias here. We remember more clearly when free throw shooting cost us a game/games. We don't necessarily remember as clearly when it may have won us a game, either because we hit a high number of them or the opponent missed a bundle. It's the kind of thing you only tend to notice when it goes wrong for you.

And, of course, those of us that are old enough to remember will always have a couple of free throw attempts in 1987 to reinforce that feeling that it has cost us over the years.

 

[br801]

You are right 64% is our opponents percentage. I didn't read the stats correctly.

So our FT defense has been pretty damn solid so far this season.

 

[MSOrange]

So our FT defense has been pretty damn solid so far this season.

We can definitely stand on the lines and watch the other team shoot with the best of them!

 

[SaltLakeOrange]

I don't remember that one. I remember posting NCAA numbers over the years to show that people's expectations for free throws are kind of high. One poster above says we should be making 75%. There's never been a year when the NCAA as a whole made 70%. We are currently shooting 67.4%, not 64% as one poster put it.

The percentages are misleading. As a team we are 67.4% (180/267). Factor out those who never really play and we are at 64%. But Roberson is at 50%. Coleman on the other hand is at 80% but shoots far less. MG is around 70%. Richardson is at 70%.

Richardson has missed 15 free throws this year. Roberson has missed 22 free throws so far this year. But MG has missed 26. That's 63 points between the three of them. And remember, these three and TC (77%) will shoot the most free throws during the course of a game. We are not good enough to leave that many points on the floor. And I stand by my statement that we should be able to go 75%. But I'd gladly take 70%.