The Final BET Projections

[reedny]

OK, here goes. First, the tiebreaker rules.

TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SEEDING
TWO-TEAM TIE
1. Regular season head-to-head results (one or two games).
If the tied teams split their two games, then proceed to Step 2 below.
2. Each team’s record vs. the team or tied teams occupying the highest position in the standings.
Continue down through the standings until one team gains an advantage. When comparing
records against a single team or collective tied teams (before ties are broken), the following may
apply:
a. If the games played against the team or group are equal, winning percentage prevails.
b. If the games played against the team or group are unequal, the following scenarios apply:
i. Most wins do prevail only if the team with fewer wins could not equal that win
total if they played the same number of games. Two examples of many scenarios
that do provide an advantage:
1) Team A 2-0 Team B 0-1
2) Team A 3-0 Team B 1-1
ii. Most wins do not prevail if the team with fewer wins could equal or surpass the
win total of the other team. Two examples of many scenarios that do not provide an
advantage:
1) Team A 1-1 Team B 0-1
2) Team A 2-0 Team B 1-0
iii. Fewer losses do not prevail if the teams have the same number of wins and if the
team with fewer games could equal or surpass the loss total of the other team. Two
examples of many scenarios that do not provide an advantage:
1) Team A 1-0 Team B 1-1
2) Team A 0-1 Team B 0-2
c. If an advantage is not determined, proceed to the next team or group in the standings for
comparison.
d. If the tie cannot be broken after continuing down through the last team or teams in the
standings, revert back to comparing records against the top teams in order and allow
winning percentage to prevail even if there is a comparison of unequal games. Only then, if
the percentages are both 1.000, is 2-0 better than 1-0. However, the reverse is not true – no
team gains advantage when all have a .000 winning percentage (0-1 is never better than 0-2).
3. COIN FLIP
If any ties still exist after implementing all of the above tie-breaking procedures, a coin flip is required.
The procedure takes place at The BIG EAST Conference office immediately following the conclusion of
the last regular season conference game. Commissioner John Marinatto or his designee will administer
this procedure. This session is open to the media and to athletic department representatives of the tied
teams.

OK. Head to head, they split. On to step 2.

• Both lost to SU - UConn twice. But according to the rules, this does not provide an 'advantage' for SH (see above - 0-1 is never better than 0-2).

• Moving on to Marquette - both lost.

• ND - SH lost, UConn went 1-1. But according to the rules, this does not provide an advantage to UConn, as SH could match UConn's record against Marq if they had played the same number of games.

• Cinci - both lost.

• Georgetown - The Hall finally wins. They beat GT while UConn lost.

Here is the actual tie breaking procedure from the BE web site - also contains the procedure for a 3-way tie (or more).

Based on this, it appears that the Friars (dominican?) should have the 9 seed, and Uconn the 10. But by the time we figure this out, we'll be in the ACC

 

[44PRIDE]

Interesting sentiment in a thread that probably took (in all versions) 20 hours to put together.

What does one have to do with the other?

 

[pfister1]

OK, here goes. First, the tiebreaker rules.

TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SEEDING
TWO-TEAM TIE
1. Regular season head-to-head results (one or two games).
If the tied teams split their two games, then proceed to Step 2 below.
2. Each team’s record vs. the team or tied teams occupying the highest position in the standings.
Continue down through the standings until one team gains an advantage. When comparing
records against a single team or collective tied teams (before ties are broken), the following may
apply:
a. If the games played against the team or group are equal, winning percentage prevails.
b. If the games played against the team or group are unequal, the following scenarios apply:
i. Most wins do prevail only if the team with fewer wins could not equal that win
total if they played the same number of games. Two examples of many scenarios
that do provide an advantage:
1) Team A 2-0 Team B 0-1
2) Team A 3-0 Team B 1-1
ii. Most wins do not prevail if the team with fewer wins could equal or surpass the
win total of the other team. Two examples of many scenarios that do not provide an
advantage:
1) Team A 1-1 Team B 0-1
2) Team A 2-0 Team B 1-0
iii. Fewer losses do not prevail if the teams have the same number of wins and if the
team with fewer games could equal or surpass the loss total of the other team. Two
examples of many scenarios that do not provide an advantage:
1) Team A 1-0 Team B 1-1
2) Team A 0-1 Team B 0-2
c. If an advantage is not determined, proceed to the next team or group in the standings for
comparison.
d. If the tie cannot be broken after continuing down through the last team or teams in the
standings, revert back to comparing records against the top teams in order and allow
winning percentage to prevail even if there is a comparison of unequal games. Only then, if
the percentages are both 1.000, is 2-0 better than 1-0. However, the reverse is not true – no
team gains advantage when all have a .000 winning percentage (0-1 is never better than 0-2).
3. COIN FLIP
If any ties still exist after implementing all of the above tie-breaking procedures, a coin flip is required.
The procedure takes place at The BIG EAST Conference office immediately following the conclusion of
the last regular season conference game. Commissioner John Marinatto or his designee will administer
this procedure. This session is open to the media and to athletic department representatives of the tied
teams.

OK. Head to head, they split. On to step 2.

• Both lost to SU - UConn twice. But according to the rules, this does not provide an 'advantage' for SH (see above - 0-1 is never better than 0-2).

• Moving on to Marquette - both lost.

• ND - SH lost, UConn went 1-1. But according to the rules, this does not provide an advantage to UConn, as SH could match UConn's record against Marq if they had played the same number of games.

• Cinci - both lost.

• Georgetown - The Hall finally wins. They beat GT while UConn lost.

Here is the actual tie breaking procedure from the BE web site - also contains the procedure for a 3-way tie (or more).

That might actually be more complicated than the U.S. Tax code.

 

[orange79]

Based on this, it appears that the Friars (dominican?) should have the 9 seed, and Uconn the 10. But by the time we figure this out, we'll be in the ACC

Sonofa...you're right. I must have missed something. Apologies - I hate it when I'm wrong.

OK - got it. Can't look at Cinci or GT head to head, because they both tied with USF. Looking at the total record of SH and UConn vs. Cinci+GT+USF, they remain tied.

• Both lost to L'ville. Moving on.
• Both beat WV. Let's keep going.
• Total record vs. Rutgers and SJ (who tied at 6-12) is 1-1 for both SH and UConn. Proceed.
• Here we go - finally. SH's record vs. Pitt+Nova is 1-1. UConn beat both, so they win the tie breaker. Whew!

Sorry for misleading anyone.

 

[reedny]

Since the Hall beat UConn and they both finished 8-10, it must be a whacky tiebreaker.

SHU split with Uconn.

 

[reedny]

Sonofa...you're right. I must have missed something. Apologies - I hate it when I'm wrong.

OK - got it. Can't look at Cinci or GT head to head, because they both tied with USF. Looking at the total record of SH and UConn vs. Cinci+GT+USF, they remain tied.

• Both lost to L'ville. Moving on.
• Both beat WV. Let's keep going.
• Total record vs. Rutgers and SJ (who tied at 6-12) is 1-1 for both SH and UConn. Proceed.
• Here we go - finally. SH's record vs. Pitt+Nova is 1-1. UConn beat both, so they win the tie breaker. Whew!

Sorry for misleading anyone.

I think you're doing great. I'm just trying to keep up. Based on the tie-breaker (SHU/UConn have the same records), the next step is head to head (they split against each other), then (step #2) go down the list from the top seeds matching records.

Assuming winning percentage (against the group?) doesn't apply, I think your analysis is sound. You took each group in the BE standings all the way down.

I guess that means we might have 2 play Uconn again ... assuming they make to our game. But this generates an interesting question -- we're the top seed -- so why are we playing the 9th seed (instead of the lower seed, the 10th seed)? Usually, the highest seeds play the lowest seeds. The way this bracket sets up, Marquette (overall 2) gets to play a lower seed (10 seed) than we do (9 seed). Hmmmm.
If the BET is bracketed the same way as the NCAAs, the top seed should face the lowest seeds in each bracket. That would mean we play SHU (1 v 10) not higher-seeded UConn (1 v 9), and Marquette would get stuck with UConn (2 v 9).

Just saying.

 

[longtimefan]

I think you're doing great. I'm just trying to keep up. Based on the tie-breaker (SHU/UConn have the same records), the next step is head to head (they split against each other), then (step #2) go down the list from the top seeds matching records.

Assuming winning percentage (against the group?) doesn't apply, I think your analysis is sound. You took each group in the BE standings all the way down.

I guess that means we might have 2 play Uconn again ... assuming they make to our game. But this generates an interesting question -- we're the top seed -- so why are we playing the 9th seed (instead of the lower seed, the 10th seed)? Usually, the highest seeds play the lowest seeds. The way this bracket sets up, Marquette (overall 2) gets to play a lower seed (10 seed) than we do (9 seed). Hmmmm.
If the BET is bracketed the same way as the NCAAs, the top seed should face the lowest seeds in each bracket. That would mean we play SHU (1 v 10) not higher-seeded UConn (1 v 9), and Marquette would get stuck with UConn (2 v 9).

Just saying.

You're assuming two upsets in the first round--#9 over 8 and #10 over 7.

If seed holds, 7 & 8 would win. SU, as #1 would get #8, #2 would get #7.

 

[orange79]

I think you're doing great. I'm just trying to keep up. Based on the tie-breaker (SHU/UConn have the same records), the next step is head to head (they split against each other), then (step #2) go down the list from the top seeds matching records.

Assuming winning percentage (against the group?) doesn't apply, I think your analysis is sound. You took each group in the BE standings all the way down.

I guess that means we might have 2 play Uconn again ... assuming they make to our game. But this generates an interesting question -- we're the top seed -- so why are we playing the 9th seed (instead of the lower seed, the 10th seed)? Usually, the highest seeds play the lowest seeds. The way this bracket sets up, Marquette (overall 2) gets to play a lower seed (10 seed) than we do (9 seed). Hmmmm.
If the BET is bracketed the same way as the NCAAs, the top seed should face the lowest seeds in each bracket. That would mean we play SHU (1 v 10) not higher-seeded UConn (1 v 9), and Marquette would get stuck with UConn (2 v 9).

Just saying.

Two things.
1. When you go down the standings to break ties, if you reach teams that have the same records (for example, in this case GT, Cinci, and USF all had the same BE record). In that case, you form a 'mini-conference' and compare records against all the teams combined. In this case, neither SH or UConn had an advantage based on their overall records against GT+Cinci+USF. Then you just keep going down and reach the first case where someone does have an advantage - in this case, it's Piit+Nova, where UConn is 2-0, but SH is only 1-1. Hence, UConn is the 9 seed, SH 10.

2. The BET is not technically bracketed the same way, since there are byes involved. One Day 1, the highest seeded team plays the lowest seeded team on that day. Hence, 9th seeded UConn plays #16 DePaul, #10 SH plays #15 Providence, and so on. The next day, it seems more like the NCAA tournament. #9 plays #8 (assuming seeds hold), #10 plays #7, and so on. Just because a lower seed wins, the bracket doesn't change (for example, if a #12 beats a #5, the bracket is not reseeded to have the highest remaining team play the lowest remaining team). And on Day 3, #1 plays the winner of what should have been the 8-9 game, #2 plays the winner of what should have been the 7-10 game, and so on.

See? Easy.

 

[reedny]

Two things.
1. When you go down the standings to break ties, if you reach teams that have the same records (for example, in this case GT, Cinci, and USF all had the same BE record). In that case, you form a 'mini-conference' and compare records against all the teams combined. In this case, neither SH or UConn had an advantage based on their overall records against GT+Cinci+USF. Then you just keep going down and reach the first case where someone does have an advantage - in this case, it's Piit+Nova, where UConn is 2-0, but SH is only 1-1. Hence, UConn is the 9 seed, SH 10.

2. The BET is not technically bracketed the same way, since there are byes involved. One Day 1, the highest seeded team plays the lowest seeded team on that day. Hence, 9th seeded UConn plays #16 DePaul, #10 SH plays #15 Providence, and so on. The next day, it seems more like the NCAA tournament. #9 plays #8 (assuming seeds hold), #10 plays #7, and so on. Just because a lower seed wins, the bracket doesn't change (for example, if a #12 beats a #5, the bracket is not reseeded to have the highest remaining team play the lowest remaining team). And on Day 3, #1 plays the winner of what should have been the 8-9 game, #2 plays the winner of what should have been the 7-10 game, and so on.

See? Easy.

Yes to both points. I agree... I looked at the BE pdf and it clearly says if the teams' records are the same and head to head they split, you go through the standings by conference record -- or groups -- to do the next calculation. This is in my post to Marsh this morning.

AS to bracketing, I see what you mean by THAT DAY ... It almost makes sense the way you describe it... except that, as a 1 seed overall, SU earned the right to play in a bracket with the lowest seeded teams (no matter when the teams play). That's only fair, byes notwithstanding, because why should Marquette (a lower seed) get to play in a bracket with the 1oth seed when we have to play the 9th seed? (The double byes muck everything up).

And while I'm on the subject of Marquette, let me just say -- it's getting pretty hard to watch the Buzz Williams show. Tough team, yes. Jay Crowder /Johnson (scr)odem, tough players, no doubt. But Buzz's "us against the world" schtick is a bit tired after 3 months, especially watching him standing 3-4 feet on-court and turning a timeout into a '99%' encampment. Then there's the post-game (in your face) dancing routine -- that's downright immature. You're "happy", yes, Buzz, we get that. But you're also (supposedly) not 13. Dance with your wife at home and save us the display -- and btw your moves suck.

Somebody needs to administer a beat down to that team, so they stop hacking everyone and then talking smack. Marquett is the new Pitt.

 

[mikekan14]

Even as the #1 seed, getting DePaul, UConn, or WVU doesn't seem like such an easy draw...

 

[reedny]

Even as the #1 seed, getting DePaul, UConn, or WVU doesn't seem like such an easy draw...

If we were in the other bracket we could wind up playing Louisville again -- which would be worse.

 

[beneg92]

I just want Notre Dame. I want to prove to the critics that with Fab Melo, we can beat anybody.