The importance of transition

[moqui]

SU outscored SHU 26-3 on fast break points last night

in other words, in the half court game, the score was 49-46

any team - any team - that takes care of the ball has the potential to give the Orange trouble. and make no mistake about it - there are several of those teams on the schedule, including nearly every potential opponent beyond the Round of 64 come March Madness.

We know what this team does well, and we know it is fun to watch when it gets rolling. But if you want to assess the potential for success in March and April, pay your closest attention to the development of the half court offense. That is the last piece of the puzzle.

 

[cusetown1]

SU outscored SHU 26-3 on fast break points last night

in other words, in the half court game, the score was 49-46

any team - any team - that takes care of the ball has the potential to give the Orange trouble. and make no mistake about it - there are several of those teams on the schedule, including nearly every potential opponent beyond the Round of 64 come March Madness.

We know what this team does well, and we know it is fun to watch when it gets rolling. But if you want to assess the potential for success in March and April, pay your closest attention to the development of the half court offense. That is the last piece of the puzzle.

That would be assuming that Syracuse never got a single point from their half court offense during those possessions.

 

[longtimefan]

SU outscored SHU 26-3 on fast break points last night

in other words, in the half court game, the score was 49-46

any team - any team - that takes care of the ball has the potential to give the Orange trouble. and make no mistake about it - there are several of those teams on the schedule, including nearly every potential opponent beyond the Round of 64 come March Madness.

We know what this team does well, and we know it is fun to watch when it gets rolling. But if you want to assess the potential for success in March and April, pay your closest attention to the development of the half court offense. That is the last piece of the puzzle.

No doubt, they are better in transition than in half court, although I'm sure there are many other top teams that have the same profile, i.e., UNC, Missouri, etc.

But remember, SH hit two late 3's over the walk-ons. As Simpkins said, it's a lot easier shooting over top of those shorter guys.

 

[djcon57]

SU outscored SHU 26-3 on fast break points last night

in other words, in the half court game, the score was 49-46

any team - any team - that takes care of the ball has the potential to give the Orange trouble. and make no mistake about it - there are several of those teams on the schedule, including nearly every potential opponent beyond the Round of 64 come March Madness.

We know what this team does well, and we know it is fun to watch when it gets rolling. But if you want to assess the potential for success in March and April, pay your closest attention to the development of the half court offense. That is the last piece of the puzzle.

The funny thing is everyone likes to point out the games we lost due to some 3 pts shooter getting red-hot (Vermont, Michigan State, Oklahoma)...myself included.

But you make a great point, lately the reason we've lost is because teams like Butler and Marq totally shut down our running game and we had to go half-court and ended up turning the ball over non stop.

 

[General20]

I agree with your overall point one hundred percent, but I'm not sure comparing our half court points to Seton Hall's is an accurate assessment of how they played.

The truth is Syracuse didn't need to score in the half court against Seton Hall, and they didn't have their foot on the gas. I was actually more down on this team than most before NC State, Bucknell, and Tulane but in all three of those games Syracuse needed to score efficiently in half court and did exactly that.

Was that just a hot streak we went through, or do we have the ability to score in the half court when we need to? The answer to that question is probably going to determine how good we are this year.

Before those three games I thought we looked pedestrian in the half court. After seeing those three games I am more hopeful that this team can get it done offensively when they need to.

 

[moqui]

I agree with your overall point one hundred percent, but I'm not sure comparing our half court points to Seton Hall's is an accurate assessment of how they played.

The truth is Syracuse didn't need to score in the half court against Seton Hall, and they didn't have their foot on the gas. I was actually more down on this team than most before NC State, Bucknell, and Tulane but in all three of those games Syracuse needed to score efficiently in half court and did exactly that.

Was that just a hot streak we went through, or do we have the ability to score in the half court when we need to? The answer to that question is probably going to determine how good we are this year.

Before those three games I thought we looked pedestrian in the half court. After seeing those three games I am more hopeful that this team can get it done offensively when they need to.

I have an e-mail in to Ken Pomeroy, asking him if it is possible to partial out transition scoring from his offensive efficiency ratings and then give a ranking of teams' half court offense. It will be interesting to see how things compare at that point, if he can do it.

 

[IthacaMatt]

The funny thing is everyone likes to point out the games we lost due to some 3 pts shooter getting red-hot (Vermont, Michigan State, Oklahoma)...myself included.

But you make a great point, lately the reason we've lost is because teams like Butler and Marq totally shut down our running game and we had to go half-court and ended up turning the ball over non stop.

That's a huge difference in this year's team. We have NEVER turned the ball over so little as we do now, and that's for a team that relies on the fast break for a substantial portion of its offense. I think we had only 8 turnovers last night, and have been averaging only 11 or 12 a game. For a team that runs as much as we do, that's unheard of. Teams that run a lot can win games having as many as 20 turnovers (we used to do that regularly). This team is so much better at protecting the ball.

 

[Knicks411]

I have an e-mail in to Ken Pomeroy, asking him if it is possible to partial out transition scoring from his offensive efficiency ratings and then give a ranking of teams' half court offense. It will be interesting to see how things compare at that point, if he can do it.

That would be awesome. I'm not sure how it could exactly be done, it's sometimes hard to define transition, but I guess if they do it for the points already...

I'd say winning the half court game 49-46 is pretty damn impressive. We had 16 more steals and 15 more blocks than they did; not every single one of those lead to transition, but I would bet we had 15 more transition possessions than they did, or 15 fewer half court possessions than they did.

The turnover thing is uge for us. We're 8th in the country in turnover %. 8th! In the last 10 years, we've finished inside the top 50 twice, 17th and 48th, and that was 2003 and 2004. That's covering for the fact that we never get to the foul line.

But we don't turn it over, and we're 10th in the country in offensive rebounding. You don't even need to shoot that well to have a good offense with those 2 other factors. We're 28th in effective fg%, which is pretty damn good, which is why we are 3rd in the country in offensive efficiency.

We're plus 12.5 percentage points in to margin; that HAS to be the best in the country. (turn it over 16% of the time, force turnovers 28.5%). There are 2 teams in the top 10 in the country in lowest to% and highest TO% on defense; us and Ohio State.

 

[General20]

I have an e-mail in to Ken Pomeroy, asking him if it is possible to partial out transition scoring from his offensive efficiency ratings and then give a ranking of teams' half court offense. It will be interesting to see how things compare at that point, if he can do it.

There is no stat that can figure in the fact that Syracuse knows they are going to win easily and therefore plays player combinations, runs plays, and tries things they would not otherwise try. At this point you can only take guesses as to how good Syracuse will be in a half court setting because, quite frankly, they haven't had to do it much this year.

I think Dion is going to be all but impossible to guard by high pressure man to man teams, and that is a big difference from the team we had last year.

I still think Southerland is the key to beating teams that zone/dare us to shoot.

How Southerland plays and how Melo develops as a low post scoring threat, I'm convinced, will determine whether we are a good team or a great team. There is no stat that will let us know how those two are going to pan out.

 

[Shenexon]

SU outscored SHU 26-3 on fast break points last night

in other words, in the half court game, the score was 49-46

any team - any team - that takes care of the ball has the potential to give the Orange trouble. and make no mistake about it - there are several of those teams on the schedule, including nearly every potential opponent beyond the Round of 64 come March Madness.

We know what this team does well, and we know it is fun to watch when it gets rolling. But if you want to assess the potential for success in March and April, pay your closest attention to the development of the half court offense. That is the last piece of the puzzle.

We will have close games that will be up for grabs by the team that wants it more, but this team has a lot of weapons and is two teams deep. I think we're less susceptible to that style of play than we were last year for instance. We have a lot of playmakers and Boeheim has the luxury of a deep bench from which to pick 5 players that will help in that kind of game. Those games will be very competitive, but I like our chances. We've played a couple of teams this year that showed us we have playmakers willing and able to step up their offense at crunch time, i.e. Dion, KJ, BT, Scoop, CJ, and JS. Boeheim has done a good job in using the deep bench and getting playing time for everyone that is BE ready. We may not win them all, but as I said: "I like our chances".

 

[CorduroyG]

Dion will be the key in those slow down half court kind of games. Drive and finish or drive and dish for dunk or open 3. Dion can get into the lane at will.

 

[orange03]

SU outscored SHU 26-3 on fast break points last night

in other words, in the half court game, the score was 49-46

any team - any team - that takes care of the ball has the potential to give the Orange trouble. and make no mistake about it - there are several of those teams on the schedule, including nearly every potential opponent beyond the Round of 64 come March Madness.

We know what this team does well, and we know it is fun to watch when it gets rolling. But if you want to assess the potential for success in March and April, pay your closest attention to the development of the half court offense. That is the last piece of the puzzle.

I'm not arguing your point, but the numbers are skewed. How many points did SH or any team for that matter score while the walk ons were in? Numbers and stats tell a little bit of the story, but they don't account for different circumstances, sub patterns, etc..

 

[djcon57]

That's a huge difference in this year's team. We have NEVER turned the ball over so little as we do now, and that's for a team that relies on the fast break for a substantial portion of its offense. I think we had only 8 turnovers last night, and have been averaging only 11 or 12 a game. For a team that runs as much as we do, that's unheard of. Teams that run a lot can win games having as many as 20 turnovers (we used to do that regularly). This team is so much better at protecting the ball.

Agreed...and you know the major difference is less Scoop = better ball protection.

 

[stuckinbig11]

in other words, in the half court game, the score was 49-46

these numbers are biased by end-of-game scores against walk-ons

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I'd say winning the half court game 49-46 is pretty damn impressive. We had 16 more steals and 15 more blocks than they did; not every single one of those lead to transition, but I would bet we had 15 more transition possessions than they did, or 15 fewer half court possessions than they did.

That was my thought too.

 

[TheRoyalIveyFund]

That's a huge difference in this year's team. We have NEVER turned the ball over so little as we do now, and that's for a team that relies on the fast break for a substantial portion of its offense. I think we had only 8 turnovers last night, and have been averaging only 11 or 12 a game. For a team that runs as much as we do, that's unheard of. Teams that run a lot can win games having as many as 20 turnovers (we used to do that regularly). This team is so much better at protecting the ball.

Matt's point cannot be overstated. I don't recall one of our teams taking such good care of the ball and each game remind myself how huge of a stat this is. At one point last night, I recall the TOs were 15-1 or something. This is insanely good, esp how much we transition and is good for an additional 3-6 points a game, which come tight games, means more W's and less Ls.

The last several games I don't recall Brandon turning it over and if he did, it wasn't anything that was terrible. He must have a real high AT ratio at this point. If Scoop would ever eliminate many of the TO's he makes, we'd drop to sub-10 for TO's which would

 

[Knicks411]

Yeah, Scoop still has a pretty high TO rate. But Kris has totally cut his TO rate, he's down below 10%, which is almost unheard of for a player like him. Dion always had a low TO rate. Brandon has gone from a TO every 4 possessions as a frosh, to every 5 last year, to every 6 this year. James never turns it over.

 

[moqui]

That's a huge difference in this year's team. We have NEVER turned the ball over so little as we do now, and that's for a team that relies on the fast break for a substantial portion of its offense. I think we had only 8 turnovers last night, and have been averaging only 11 or 12 a game. For a team that runs as much as we do, that's unheard of. Teams that run a lot can win games having as many as 20 turnovers (we used to do that regularly). This team is so much better at protecting the ball.

part of that might be that, surprisingly, this team doesn't pass the ball as much as other recent editions. Right now, Syracuse ranks just 116th in the nation in assist percentage, 55.8%. Last year, it was 60.5% and ranked 36th, the great 09-10 team was 7th in the nation at 64.6%. The assist rate is down as a factor of the revved up transition game. After 14 games, 259 of 1124 points have come off the fast break - 23%. Compare that to 2009-10 when, again after 14 games, the Orange had tallied 237 fast break points out of 1212 total - 19.6%.

 

[TheRoyalIveyFund]

Yeah, Scoop still has a pretty high TO rate. But Kris has totally cut his TO rate, he's down below 10%, which is almost unheard of for a player like him. Dion always had a low TO rate. Brandon has gone from a TO every 4 possessions as a frosh, to every 5 last year, to every 6 this year. James never turns it over.

That is interesting. Thanks for the info, kind of reaffirms what I thought. I'm guessing but the last 4-5 , I bet that rate is much better. It seems like he is really taking care of the ball...

 

[NKR1978]

Dion will be the key in those slow down half court kind of games. Drive and finish or drive and dish for dunk or open 3. Dion can get into the lane at will.

Dion is so good at driving to the hoop when we need a score

Sent from my ADR6400L using Tapatalk

 

[moqui]

Bilas agrees:

 

[pfister1]

Matt's point cannot be overstated. I don't recall one of our teams taking such good care of the ball and each game remind myself how huge of a stat this is. At one point last night, I recall the TOs were 15-1 or something. This is insanely good, esp how much we transition and is good for an additional 3-6 points a game, which come tight games, means more W's and less Ls.

The last several games I don't recall Brandon turning it over and if he did, it wasn't anything that was terrible. He must have a real high AT ratio at this point. If Scoop would ever eliminate many of the TO's he makes, we'd drop to sub-10 for TO's which would

The box score credits (discredits) us with only 6 turnovers last night. The amazing thing is that we had committed 3 of them by the 15:55 mark of the first half. CJ's turnover at 15:55 was our third and led us into the first TV timeout of the evening. We only committed three more in the remaining 36 minutes of play.

 

[Knicks411]

We only committed three more in the remaining 36 minutes of play.

That's amazing, and I feel like it's one of those things you don't realize as it's happening. Then all of a sudden the tv flashes a stat, and we haven't turned the ball over in 10 minutes of game time.

 

[dasher]

The Hall has is one of those teams that take care of the ball. That is the point. They only turn the ball over 12 times a game.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

SU outscored SHU 26-3 on fast break points last night

in other words, in the half court game, the score was 49-46

any team - any team - that takes care of the ball has the potential to give the Orange trouble. and make no mistake about it - there are several of those teams on the schedule, including nearly every potential opponent beyond the Round of 64 come March Madness.

We know what this team does well, and we know it is fun to watch when it gets rolling. But if you want to assess the potential for success in March and April, pay your closest attention to the development of the half court offense. That is the last piece of the puzzle.

I am not sure it is as cut and dry as it seems. Obviously this isn't perfectly analogous, but on the 17 possessions that began with steals for SU, they scored 20 points or 1.17 per possession, on the rest of the possessions that scored 1.55 points per possession.