The Last 45 Seasons

[DangerZone]

I thought I would put together a quick visual of the winning percentage over the last 45 years. There is a downward sloping linear trend over the entirety of the time period. It is easy to visualize, but I removed it as I felt it was unnecessary and like many statistical analyses, it doesn't fully summarize the data. There are some interesting observations:

• With a total of 1,087 wins and 414 losses in these years, the average winning percentage for a season is 72.4%.
• Twice Syracuse has outperformed 72.4% for six consecutive seasons: The seasons starting in 1985-90 and 2008-13.
• One particularly strong period of prolonged, yet volatile growth in winning percentage (if one were to visual a linear trend not over the whole of the chart but over only a section) was 1996-97 through 2011-12.
• This season marks the 7th consecutive season below 65%. Prior to this stretch there were never consecutive seasons below 65% save 1980-81 and 1981-82.

 

[FanInVA]

Great analysis, thank you!

 

[Orangezoo]

I thought I would put together a quick visual of the winning percentage over the last 45 years. There is a downward sloping linear trend over the entirety of the time period. It is easy to visualize, but I removed it as I felt it was unnecessary and like many statistical analyses, it doesn't fully summarize the data. There are some interesting observations:

• With a total of 1,087 wins and 414 losses in these years, the average winning percentage for a season is 72.4%.
• Twice Syracuse has outperformed 72.4% for six consecutive seasons: The seasons starting in 1985-90 and 2008-13.
• One particularly strong period of prolonged, yet volatile growth in winning percentage (if one were to visual a linear trend not over the whole of the chart but over only a section) was 1996-97 through 2011-12.
• This season marks the 7th consecutive season below 65%. Prior to this stretch there were never consecutive seasons below 65% save 1980-81 and 1981-82.

View attachment 199217

Plotting the tourney round progress on a second Y axis would be good to look at too.

 

[CousCuse]

That's a clear buy signal.

 

[SUFan44]

That's a clear buy signal.

It is? Please help me get where you are.

 

[Lawrinson14]

It is? Please help me get where you are.

resistance seems to be around 55%. Also looks like a double bottom. This thing is gonna shoot up.

 

[CousCuse]

It is? Please help me get where you are.

Look at the graph. The bottom has been tested 2 times and failed to make a new low. I believe it's a clear signal that it is going to go up and test the range highs. Buy the dip.

 

[NineOneSeven]

STONKS

 

[Timonen]

One big variable is the acc move in 2013 that aligns with the dip, right? Statistically speaking, the dip isn’t necessarily a reflection on us but that uptick in conference competition. It also speaks to us outperforming seed when we get into the tourney.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Changing the Y axis minimum to 50% also makes it a bit clearer visually. All about the optics.

 

[CousCuse]

I'm giving you guys and gals insider info to BUY NOW. When they pull a couple of big fish out of the portal, you'll wish you listened to me.

 

[HoustonCuse]

Wow that is incredible how cyclic it is. It looks like there has only been three or four sequences ever where a trend continued over multiple seasons in either an up or down direction. The rest is all up/down/up/down. It will be even harder for a program to sustain a consisent direction upwards in the new world where a huge proportion of players are 1 year only players, especially any who require any kind of development.

 

[SUFan44]

resistance seems to be around 55%. Also looks like a double bottom. This thing is gonna shoot up.

There is a significant market factor that isn't taken into consideration with this analysis.

 

[supp]

STONKS

Past performance is not indicative of future success.

 

[dasher]

That's a clear buy signal.

Stay in whatever job you have. Stock picker isn't in your future.

 

[tbonezone]

the plaid suit and dickie will be back in style before JB retires. the funny thing about fashion , if you fall far enuf back in a race you'll eventually find yourself out in front of the leaders. and we about to get lapped.

 

[two3zone]

It is? Please help me get where you are.

A lot of California reds and let’s say, some Colombian whites.

 

[two3zone]

One big variable is the acc move in 2013 that aligns with the dip, right? Statistically speaking, the dip isn’t necessarily a reflection on us but that uptick in conference competition. It also speaks to us outperforming seed when we get into the tourney.

It’s arguable that some renditions of the Big East were stronger too to bottom than the ACC we’ve been playing in.

 

[SUfanNC]

Wow that is incredible how cyclic it is. It looks like there has only been three or four sequences ever where a trend continued over multiple seasons in either an up or down direction. The rest is all up/down/up/down. It will be even harder for a program to sustain a consisent direction upwards in the new world where a huge proportion of players are 1 year only players, especially any who require any kind of development.

I believe this is why so many are concerned If you look we have not had so many down years in a row. “Trend”. It shows what a good job JB has done in the past but also shows he has lost something. It’s not the ability to coach I wouldn’t think. Maybe it’s the ying to his yang.

 

[Timonen]

It’s arguable that some renditions of the Big East were stronger too to bottom than the ACC we’ve been playing in.

That’s fine but then you can normalize for that stuff. I’m not sweating it and the eye test backs up the dip for the most part. I’m just purely reacting to the data.

there’s other variables related to recruiting, upperclassmen as a % of the team (maybe early defections is a better reflection of that point), conference strength etc etc that can be folded in if we really want to have fun and let the data quantify the drop off, if any

 

[CardiacCuse]

Interesting to see where the sanctions come into play in this chart...they have a big role to play, imo.

Also, this new era of one and dones hasn't exactly been JB's wheelhouse (carmelo aside obviously)...

Plus, I personally think the buddy era is a special circumstance that is depressing win%

Along with that I think the system only works with the right players...when it has the right players it is deadly...when it doesnt it is mediocre and the rest of ncaa has kinda figured it out to an extent...

He has become more fixed on his system than before...

Could he right the ship? absolutely...a few special players come in and it is on like donkey kong, imo.

 

[Eric15]

Statistically speaking, the dip isn’t necessarily a reflection on us but that uptick in conference competition.

I just don't think there's much to that theory. Our first year in the ACC (2013-14) was one of the best regular seasons in program history (4 losses).

The ACC this year was as bad as almost any year the Big East has ever had. We didn't play a ranked team the final 11 games of the regular season, and even with that easy competition we still were a bubble team.

I see no reason to think that we wouldn't be in the exact same bubblicious predicament had the Big East stayed in tact.

 

[Timonen]

I just don't think there's much to that theory. Our first year in the ACC (2013-14) was one of the best regular seasons in program history (4 losses).

The ACC this year was as bad as almost any year the Big East has ever had. We didn't play a ranked team the final 11 games of the regular season, and even with that easy competition we still were a bubble team.

I see no reason to think that we wouldn't be in the exact same bubblicious predicament had the Big East stayed in tact.

I’m just speaking to the statistics shown. If you control for everything you need to control for the story could go in a million directions.

but now I’m interested in how many tourney teams were in each conference, share of teams ranked, how to tier them, etc. it gets tricky because teams came with us to the acc, too. Fun stuff, though.

 

[Timonen]

Interesting to see where the sanctions come into play in this chart...they have a big role to play, imo.

Also, this new era of one and dones hasn't exactly been JB's wheelhouse (carmelo aside obviously)...

Plus, I personally think the buddy era is a special circumstance that is depressing win%

Along with that I think the system only works with the right players...when it has the right players it is deadly...when it doesnt it is mediocre and the rest of ncaa has kinda figured it out to an extent...

He has become more fixed on his system than before...

Could he right the ship? absolutely...a few special players come in and it is on like donkey kong, imo.

It’s always struck me that we got one and dones (or two and dones) but they were lower tier recruits not ready to vault us to the top...but still leaving. That’s been the biggest drag on our teams, it seems.

 

[SBU72]

One big variable is the acc move in 2013 that aligns with the dip, right? Statistically speaking, the dip isn’t necessarily a reflection on us but that uptick in conference competition. It also speaks to us outperforming seed when we get into the tourney.

But I was told not to blame the ACC. (I hadn't)