The Last 45 Seasons

[bpo57]

Been downhill since 1980.

 

[djcon57]

It’s always struck me that we got one and dones (or two and dones) but they were lower tier recruits not ready to vault us to the top...but still leaving. That’s been the biggest drag on our teams, it seems.

this is a great point not specifically just for us. But look at the teams with success the last 4 years of Final Four mops

Kyle Guy
Joel Berry
Donte DiVincenzo
Ryan Arcidiacono

its basically the same kind of player. upper classman who stuck around that one extra year. That whole Uva team was that way really

we got it once with Battle and it didn’t work out great

 

[bpo57]

this is a great point not specifically just for us. But look at the teams with success the last 4 years of Final Four mops

Kyle Guy
Joel Berry
Donte DiVincenzo
Ryan Arcidiacono

its basically the same kind of player. upper classman who stuck around that one extra year. That whole Uva team was that way really

we got it once with Battle and it didn’t work out great

Yeah it's going to be harder and harder to achieve that with all of the transferring that will continue to go on. The transfers are already having a huge impact. Houston has Jarreau (UMass) and Grimes (KU) while Baylor has Teague (UNC Ashville), Mitchell (Auburn), Flagler (Presbyterian) and Tchatua (Sp? - UNLV). That's insane success by Drew with the transfers.

 

[SWC75]

I thought I would put together a quick visual of the winning percentage over the last 45 years. There is a downward sloping linear trend over the entirety of the time period. It is easy to visualize, but I removed it as I felt it was unnecessary and like many statistical analyses, it doesn't fully summarize the data. There are some interesting observations:

• With a total of 1,087 wins and 414 losses in these years, the average winning percentage for a season is 72.4%.
• Twice Syracuse has outperformed 72.4% for six consecutive seasons: The seasons starting in 1985-90 and 2008-13.
• One particularly strong period of prolonged, yet volatile growth in winning percentage (if one were to visual a linear trend not over the whole of the chart but over only a section) was 1996-97 through 2011-12.
• This season marks the 7th consecutive season below 65%. Prior to this stretch there were never consecutive seasons below 65% save 1980-81 and 1981-82.

View attachment 199217

In 1991 we won 81.25% of our games so it was 7 years in a row.

I think a coach should be evaluated not by his ceiling but by his floor. All he can do is recruit, teach, motivate and strategize. The players have to take it beyond that. Each team is a jigsaw puzzle where he doesn't have all the pieces and has to figure out how to put them together to forma picture anyway. The impressive thing about that graph is that it never touches 50%.

 

[Mareiniss]

this is a great point not specifically just for us. But look at the teams with success the last 4 years of Final Four mops

Kyle Guy
Joel Berry
Donte DiVincenzo
Ryan Arcidiacono

its basically the same kind of player. upper classman who stuck around that one extra year. That whole Uva team was that way really

we got it once with Battle and it didn’t work out great

True. The blue bloods and big name teams who play lots of one-and-dones and underclassmen haven't done well in (or haven't even gotten into) the tournament lately (e.g., Kentucky, Duke, Louisville, maybe Oklahoma State). So maybe it's better to recruit players who will stick around for awhile.

 

[UnderHisOwnPower]

It is? Please help me get where you are.

Bullish trade, bearish trend

 

[Sherman20]

One big variable is the acc move in 2013 that aligns with the dip, right? Statistically speaking, the dip isn’t necessarily a reflection on us but that uptick in conference competition. It also speaks to us outperforming seed when we get into the tourney.

An uptick in conference competition?? The last 8 years of the old Big East was more difficult than our first seven seasons in the ACC.