The most frustrating aspect

[Consigliere]

Early season expectations are based on two components - the known and the unknown. The known, particularly for a team returning many of the ingredients from the previous season, is based on empirical evidence - what we've seen and observations not only from the previous seasons but also from pre-season scrimmages and practice sessions. The known provides a baseline for expectations. Whatever else happens we know we can count on A, B and C.

The unknown provides the X factor or aspects that can move a team a level or two above baseline expectations. Roster additions, recovery from injury and expected areas of improvement can add maturity to a team and propel a good team to a great one.

The "knowns" this year seemed pretty solid. this would be a very good defensive team built around a ton of returning talent highly experienced and proficient in the 2-3. Tyus Battle would be a proven, consistent scorer capable of carrying the team on his back hen needed. Oshae Brissett would play at an all-ACC level preparing for his inevitable lottery-pick status in June.

The X factors for this year's team included improved play from the pivot with Chukwu's physical development and Sidibe's return from injury, the ability for Dolezaj to build on his late season improvements offensively and the injection of talented newcomers particularly Hughes and Carey. If any of these factors were to materialize we would have the look of a very formidable team significantly improved over last season.

Given the "knowns" if you had told me that Carey and Hughes would look to be consistent double digit scorers and high level contributors I would be booking my tickets to Minneapolis today. Instead we are coming off of two straight losses to at best good, not elite teams. Our freshman point guard ended up being our leading rebounder. Brissett was an unmitigated disaster seemingly focused more on being a perimeter threat than an imposing athletic presence. Tyus almost looked to be deferential and only showed a desire to take over a game from a position of desperation. And the zone was laughably bad! Yes Carey struggled to cut off dribble drive - especially against UConn - but the wings were late getting out on the shooters, there was little to no weakside help when the ball got to the post and positioning was nothing short of brutal leading to reach-ins and open mid range shots.

Silver lining is that we KNOW the ability is there. We have evidence that the ability is there to turn around each of these faults - they did it at times last year. I'm willing to write off MSG as a small sample size anomaly but our margin for error is now unexpectedly slim if the goal is a high seed and a Hartford - D.C. path in the NCAAs.

 

[Townie72]

Good stuff. I like your approach a lot.

And I think that this is how so many got so optimistic.

In the minds of many, not only were B,B and H going to be just as effective as last year, but Sidibe, PC and MD just HAD to get better.

I'm reminded of the saying, "It's not what you know that gets you. It's what you know that isn't so."

I hope we don't end up again this year with Tyus having to take over games in order for SU to score.

 

[Trueblue25]

Good thread

 

[tbonezone]

imo big issue is battle needs to burst out of the gate and not sleep trance on rail behind the pack til the 35 minute mark to make his move. catcha fire !

 

[jdubs30]

The only slight silver lining (assuming we put it together) is if we really improve over the next few months, we do have the built in "Frank" excuse for the committee.

Everyone on this forum knows that Frank will help, but he's clearly not the reason we've been this bad. However, if we turn this around and UConn/Oregon turn out to be 2 of our "bad" losses, I do think the committee will look at Frank not being there.

We have along way to go but we're certainly not done

 

[Zelda Zonk]

Good perspective. And Oregon was ranked above us. I’m more surprised by the ways we struggled than the actual Ls.

I hope battle’s problems are about needing to still gain confidence in a revised shot technique. I have no idea what Oshae was doing. I’m saddened by Sidibe’s lack of competency under the basket. Injury or inexperience doesn’t explain why he looks like a guy completely new to the sport. This was a guy I saw in two HS games who had a beautiful short range jumper. Like Taurean. Not used that way and instead he looks feeble in the post. Need a Big Man Coach!!!! What we have now is a linebacker teaching wide receivers. Doesn’t matter how many clinics you attend, a guy who has played the position against real comp should be a better teacher of those skills.

I really hope frank comes back without any lingering or recurring issues. We can’t afford to have him both at diminished capacity and in and out of the lineup all year. Something worries me in that he’s not back per earlier ‘schedule’—I hope it wasn’t a more severe thing.

 

[FrancoPizza]

Is it possible there is some unreported internal dissension amongst the players? I know it seems crazy to suggest given how much they liked playing for each other last year, but it would explain a lot of things.

 

[bevosu]

Early season expectations are based on two components.

If this forum is any example I'd have to add another component. Fans emotional bias. Every summer/early fall, the expectations build. This year is going to be better because...(followed by a totally subjective declarative unsubstantiated statement). Fans want to believe.

The faith without evidence thing. Although some expectations would appear to be rational.

True for basketball and football. Usually expectations get tempered as the season progresses, and disappointment can bring out, Newton's third law : For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction (in some).

I don't judge...to each their own.

 

[jdubs30]

Is it possible there is some unreported internal dissension amongst the players? I know it seems crazy to suggest given how much they liked playing for each other last year, but it would explain a lot of things.

Very unlikely. Same group as last year with the exception of Buddy and Carey.

 

[SoBristol]

Three issues vs expectations:
1. Point guard play with Frank out
2. Improvement at center
3. 3 point shooting percentage

Have to get Frank back and see how JB finds ways to win with the strengths we do have.

 

[mark79]

I also think shot selection caused by role confusion is a little bit at fault here too. And if there is even the slightest hint of nba show-casing, they are smart enough to see that is not working. I am confident things will settle back into place. No one likes losing, and these aren’t the kind of kids that would continue to jack up threes if they aren’t going in. They will also listen to coach as he go about fixing this. I was initially a bit upset like we all were but I’m settling back into calmness. We have too much talent not to get 20+ wins and another berth. National Championship? It could still happen! A lot of jelling needs to take place. but it still could.

 

[TinyManInside]

I think most fans have a tendency to overrate their own talent. In terms of pre-season expectations, we have people expecting a great season based on a 4 game sample size in a tournament that we almost didn't even make, while ignoring the larger sample size of the other 30+ games.

The reality is that the last year's team was poor by Boeheim standards until the final four games in the tourney.

Yes, we have the whole team back, but our leading scorers from last year were very inefficient, and inefficacious offensive play is only a route to victory if you have an elite defense. Yes, our defense is (well, should be at least) very good, but it is basketball, after all, and eventually you need to put the ball through the hoop if you want to win.

Bottom line is Tyus and Oshae need to be a lot better in order for this team to live up to the fan expectations.

 

[reedny]

I think most fans have a tendency to overrate their own talent. In terms of pre-season expectations, we have people expecting a great season based on a 4 game sample size in a tournament that we almost didn't even make, while ignoring the larger sample size of the other 30+ games.

The reality is that the last year's team was poor by Boeheim standards until the final four games in the tourney.

Yes, we have the whole team back, but our leading scorers from last year were very inefficient, and inefficacious offensive play is only a route to victory if you have an elite defense. Yes, our defense is (well, should be at least) very good, but it is basketball, after all, and eventually you need to put the ball through the hoop if you want to win.

Bottom line is Tyus and Oshae need to be a lot better in order for this team to live up to the fan expectations.

And I would add Hughes into that group - all three are volume scorers who are most effective when they're set up. Right now, we have no functioning set up guy - someone to run the offense and create movement. That's why we're struggling.

Carey's talented and will be a great player for us. But right now, he's playing like a 2 and not a PG (he's had 1 assist in the last two games and 70+ minutes). That is likely to improve as he gets his sea legs and finds his role. In the meantime, we're terrible without a QB.

For the same reason, I would like to see MD's minutes increase - not because he's a scorer, but because he's a good passer who makes our scorers better players. I know he's not a bruiser or great rebounder. But what he does makes us less bad right now while our senior PG heals up.

 

[Consigliere]

With all the focus on the offensive ineptitude there has been little discussion about the defense. We gave up 80+ points twice all season last year. We did it twice in 24 hours at MSG. I would expect defense at the top of the zone to be a "known" and think Frank's return will be a quick fix there. Shooting can be streaky. Defense (and defensive effort) should not be. That's why I don't buy into the Tyus to the 3 hypothesis - at least not until Carey shows he can cut off the dribble drive.

 

[Townie72]

I think most fans have a tendency to overrate their own talent. In terms of pre-season expectations, we have people expecting a great season based on a 4 game sample size in a tournament that we almost didn't even make, while ignoring the larger sample size of the other 30+ games.

The reality is that the last year's team was poor by Boeheim standards until the final four games in the tourney.

Yes, we have the whole team back, but our leading scorers from last year were very inefficient, and inefficacious offensive play is only a route to victory if you have an elite defense. Yes, our defense is (well, should be at least) very good, but it is basketball, after all, and eventually you need to put the ball through the hoop if you want to win.

Bottom line is Tyus and Oshae need to be a lot better in order for this team to live up to the fan expectations.

Your first three paragraphs are fine, I think.

But I want to take issue with the third.

If Tyus and Oshae played better, what we would have is the same team we had last year.

What we need is an understanding of how this group of players can play together as a team. The two man show, or three men with Frank, really will be 2017-18 redux. When you can only do two things --- jack up three's or drive the lane --- you become easier and easier to defend.

We have more and better pieces this year, but at least in NYC, they diidn't come close to working together well.

 

[tbonezone]

as for the "known" somewhere during a broadcast i saw a stat flashed up that syracuse was #3 in the NCAA for "minutes returned". hard to believe some program has more.

 

[bballbeadle]

Is it possible there is some unreported internal dissension amongst the players? I know it seems crazy to suggest given how much they liked playing for each other last year, but it would explain a lot of things.

I have really wondered about that as well. I thought we had dodged a bullet with Bazely not coming, since it seemed clear that he was more NBA-dreaming rather than looking to be part of a team.

Some people have suggested that there might be dissension if Buddy plays too much over others, but that doesn’t seem to be happening. And I expect Boeheim to be the last coach in the world who would show favoritism towards his son.

These kids are undoubtedly as shocked as we are by how badly they played. Boeheim also seemed a little stunned during his PC.

In order to settle myself down, I am going to trust these coaches. Every team is unique, and I have lost sight of that due to the expectations so beautifully articulated by the OP. I don’t believe Boeheim is an idiot. I really don’t! I hope and trust that he and his able assistants will be able to guide these players to be their best and to work with each other.

For my own sanity, this is what I am going to think.