The RPI is a joke...

[bpo57]

I read where people think UConn is a lock for the NCAAs due in part to their very high RPI ratings (just recently fell out of the top 20 and are now 24). The RPI is such a joke. UConn has lost 9 of their last 14. Their quality OOC wins are a two point win three months ago against FSU and a win against Harvard. They split with two SEC teams (Ark and Ten) neither of which is likely to make the NCAAs. Their resume for entry into the NCAAs has bubble written all over it (at best) and yet they have an RPI rating of 24. Go figure.

 

[DNABB5]

Will their RPI go up either way by Sunday?

 

[PeteCalvin]

JB thinks they get in if they finish .500 in the BE. He might be right.

 

[orange79]

Based on their resume (6-6 vs. the Top 50, for example, RPI = 23, SOS = 3, etc.) compared to others, they should be in. Those numbers, in the 2nd best conference (base on RPI) should get you in. Those are the numbers of about an 8-9 seed. 8-9 seeds are usually not bubble teams.

 

[texascpa]

I still think they are very iffy to make it and I've been saying it for 3 weeks now. They just have not been playing well and if the committee still looks at last 10 games, that is a big negative for them.

 

[AZOrange]

JB thinks they get in if they finish .500 in the BE. He might be right.

sounds an awful lot like another Uconn team I remember...

 

[bpo57]

Based on their resume (6-6 vs. the Top 50, for example, RPI = 23, SOS = 3, etc.) compared to others, they should be in. Those numbers, in the 2nd best conference (base on RPI) should get you in. Those are the numbers of about an 8-9 seed. 8-9 seeds are usually not bubble teams.

Part of your justification is the RPI. Why is their RPI so high? If you want to cite the RPI then you left out that UConn lost to #63, #82, #102 and #153. If they don't win at least two more games (including the BET) then they have no business getting in the NCAAs.

 

[PoppyHart]

I read where people think UConn is a lock for the NCAAs due in part to their very high RPI ratings (just recently fell out of the top 20 and are now 24). The RPI is such a joke. UConn has lost 9 of their last 14. Their quality OOC wins are a two point win three months ago against FSU and a win against Harvard. They split with two SEC teams (Ark and Ten) neither of which is likely to make the NCAAs. Their resume for entry into the NCAAs has bubble written all over it (at best) and yet they have an RPI rating of 24. Go figure.

They are certainly not a "lock", b/c 7-11 will simply not cut it.

However, 9-9, or 8-10 (with a win over SU) is lock city.

8-10 with a loss to SU will require some sweating, but i don't think it's fatal.

The only way to have these discussions to to compare actual teams, and realize that there are not 34 or so at-larges with better qualifications. A win at ND, where they've lost once in 3 years, and OOC wins against at least two tourney teams (FSU and Harvard) is tough to trump.

 

[bpo57]

They are certainly not a "lock", b/c 7-11 will simply not cut it.

However, 9-9, or 8-10 (with a win over SU) is lock city.

8-10 with a loss to SU will require some sweating, but i don't think it's fatal.

The only way to have these discussions to to compare actual teams, and realize that there are not 34 or so at-larges with better qualifications. A win at ND, where they've lost once in 3 years, and OOC wins against at least two tourney teams (FSU and Harvard) is tough to trump.

I disagree on the 34. I would also counter that losses to UCF, Rutgers and Tennessee don't look that hot. Also if they go 8-10 (and lose to SU) and get in that would be a complete joke unless they did damage in the BET. You'd be letting them in after they had lost 11 of their last 17 on the basis of two OOC wins against FSU (by 2 three months ago) and Harvard. That makes zero sense to me.

 

[Knicks411]

It's 37, not 34 anyway.

You do have to look at the teams who they are competing with. I don't thinbk you can discount the OOC wins because they were a long time ago.

Lunardi's last 4 out are NC State, UCF, USf, and Oregon.

NC State's best wins are Texas (neutral site-also 3 months ago) and @ Miami.
UCF: They did beat UConn, of course that was 3 months ago. They beat Memphis at home.
USF: Best win is Seton Hall at home.
Oregon: Best win is @Arizona, or @ Stanford.

UConn beat FSU on a neutral site, they beat Harvard at home. They have beaten WVU at home, @ Notre Dame, Seton Hall at home. They have 5 wins against teams that are either in or likely to be in the field. If you want to be harsh, you can say that either WVU or Hall will make it, but not both, giving them 4 wins against the field.

If you look at that first 4 list, how many wins do you come up with against NCAA tournament teams combined? UCS has 2. USF has 1, assuming you are counting Seton Hall. Oregon has 1 or 2, depending on how you feel about Washington. NC State right now has 1 win against Texas, who is currently in the last 4 in.

UConn has roughly as many wins against NCAA teams as the entire last 4 out.

In order to say UConn is out, you need to pick teams with better resumes. It's kinda hard to find them.

 

[jncuse]

I disagree on the 34. I would also counter that losses to UCF, Rutgers and Tennessee don't look that hot. Also if they go 8-10 (and lose to SU) and get in that would be a complete joke unless they did damage in the BET. You'd be letting them in after they had lost 11 of their last 17 on the basis of two OOC wins against FSU (by 2 three months ago) and Harvard. That makes zero sense to me.

One of the teams that you see as garbage (UCF) is on the bubble. Perhaps now you will finally realize how weak the at larges are.

 

[Oakland]

I read where people think UConn is a lock for the NCAAs due in part to their very high RPI ratings (just recently fell out of the top 20 and are now 24). The RPI is such a joke. UConn has lost 9 of their last 14. Their quality OOC wins are a two point win three months ago against FSU and a win against Harvard. They split with two SEC teams (Ark and Ten) neither of which is likely to make the NCAAs. Their resume for entry into the NCAAs has bubble written all over it (at best) and yet they have an RPI rating of 24. Go figure.

It is just as important to look at the bottom as it is the top. UConn has played only two 200+ teams. As compared to say Vanderbilt, with a better record and just below them in the RPI, that has played three 200+ teams and a 300+ team. Playing 200+ teams hurts your RPI more than playing top 10 teams helps. This is why Duke always has a top 10 RPI, and Cuse sometimes has a lower RPI due to the NYS circuit.

Since the RPI is intended to help identify the better teams, a good adjustment would be to ignore any games with +200 teams. This would greatly improve the utility of the RPI.

 

[jncuse]

In order to say UConn is out, you need to pick teams with better resumes. It's kinda hard to find them.

I would love to see UConn in the NIT, and would love to make an assessment that they are not on the tourney. But exactly as you said, no one else on the bubble has a top 50 win profile that they do.

 

[PoppyHart]

I disagree on the 34. I would also counter that losses to UCF, Rutgers and Tennessee don't look that hot. Also if they go 8-10 (and lose to SU) and get in that would be a complete joke unless they did damage in the BET. You'd be letting them in after they had lost 11 of their last 17 on the basis of two OOC wins against FSU (by 2 three months ago) and Harvard. That makes zero sense to me.

Well, again I would ask "which bubble team(s) would you place over them?" At this point, its still too large of a bubble to really make head-to-head comparisons b/c the permutations are so large. But here are the alleged current bubble teams. Which do you think have proven to a committee that they are deserving to be in and capable of competing effectively:

Best wins (in order as I see them) are in parenthesis. I only included teams that have either (a) a top-75 RPI or (b) a snowball's chance in hell of an at-large.

Texas (Temple, K. State, Iowa State) Mitigating losses: Or. State (RPI of 145)
NW (MSU, SHU, @ Illinois, LSU, Minn) Mitigating losses: None
SHU (Gtown, UCONN, WVU, St. Joe's, VCU, @ Dayton) ML: None
Miami (@ Duke, UMASS) ML: None
NCSU: (Miami, Texas) ML: G. Tech (187)
UCF: (Conn, Memphis, Marshall) ML: None
USF: (SHU) ML: PSU (137), Auburn (124)
Oregon: (Washington, @ Zona) ML: Or. State (145)
CSU: (UNM, SDSU, Colorado) ML: @ Boise State (RPI of 164)
St. Joes: (Creighton, Dayton) ML: @ American (142), Charlotte (157)
VCU: (USF, No. Iowa) ML: Ga. Tech (187), Ga. State (136)
Minn: (@ Indiana, Northwestern, Illinois, S. Dakota State) ML: Iowa x2


UCONN: (@ND, FSU, Harvard, SHU, WVU, @USF, Wagner, Arkansas) ML: Rutgers (153)


Summary:
Which teams stand out? IMO, from the top grouping its SHU, Texas, and NW, followed by CSU. None of them hold a candle to UCONN, which has a minimum of 3 wins against tourney teams, and possibly 6 or more.

To bump UCONN, you'd probably need to find 4-5 teams from the teams listed BELOW Miami to make your case, as the top-4 teams are theoretically already "in". Of course, the bubble may/will shrink as upsets occur in the smaller conferences during championship week.

Finally, its worth noting that this comparison does not factor in SOS or RPI, where UCONN is clearly superior to the comparison group.

 

[jimsonjunction]

I've got an idea. Let's expand the tournament and let even more crappy teams in! :bang:

 

[orange79]

Part of your justification is the RPI. Why is their RPI so high? If you want to cite the RPI then you left out that UConn lost to #63, #82, #102 and #153. If they don't win at least two more games (including the BET) then they have no business getting in the NCAAs.

Their losses are their losses. But they also have wins over #20, #32, #35, #38, #44, and #48. 6 Top 50 wins. If you look at teams rated (in RPI) below UConn, only one other team has 6 Top 50 wins - ND. One. Plus, they have only played 2 teams rated 200 or higher (meaning 200+). SU has played 7. This is an incredible SOS. And, as selections have shown us over the years, SOS counts - a lot. And I do want to cite the RPI, because it is one of the factors the committee uses. Is it the only one? No. But it is used. And since we can't be inside the heads of the committee, it is the only tangible criteria us laymen can use as it incorporates record, SOS, etc.

If UConn can get to .500 in the conference (or hell, even 8-10), they are a stone cold lock. Not because they are inherently a great team, but because they are one of the top 34 teams to be considered for an at-large berth.

 

[Orangemen]

sounds an awful lot like another Uconn team I remember...

Since Kemba Walker ain't coming through that door, I'm not worried.

And since Shabazz Napier (to me) thinks he can be Kemba Walker, I would discount them even more.

 

[Garbs]

I still think they are very iffy to make it and I've been saying it for 3 weeks now. They just have not been playing well and if the committee still looks at last 10 games, that is a big negative for them.

if they go 2-1 in their last 3 they will be 5-5 in last 10 and two of the loses could be against the #1 team in RPI

 

[texascpa]

if they go 2-1 in their last 3 they will be 5-5 in last 10 and two of the loses could be against the #1 team in RPI

Big IF for UConn.

 

[44cuse]

JB thinks they get in if they finish .500 in the BE. He might be right.

They finished .500 in the Big East last season and won it all.

44cuse

 

[Orangemen]

They finished .500 in the Big East last season and won it all.

44cuse

Kemba finished 0.500, and Kemba won it all.

Everyone else was just along for the ride.

 

[bpo57]

It's 37, not 34 anyway.

You do have to look at the teams who they are competing with. I don't thinbk you can discount the OOC wins because they were a long time ago.

Lunardi's last 4 out are NC State, UCF, USf, and Oregon.

NC State's best wins are Texas (neutral site-also 3 months ago) and @ Miami.
UCF: They did beat UConn, of course that was 3 months ago. They beat Memphis at home.
USF: Best win is Seton Hall at home.
Oregon: Best win is @Arizona, or @ Stanford.

UConn beat FSU on a neutral site, they beat Harvard at home. They have beaten WVU at home, @ Notre Dame, Seton Hall at home. They have 5 wins against teams that are either in or likely to be in the field. If you want to be harsh, you can say that either WVU or Hall will make it, but not both, giving them 4 wins against the field.

If you look at that first 4 list, how many wins do you come up with against NCAA tournament teams combined? UCS has 2. USF has 1, assuming you are counting Seton Hall. Oregon has 1 or 2, depending on how you feel about Washington. NC State right now has 1 win against Texas, who is currently in the last 4 in.

UConn has roughly as many wins against NCAA teams as the entire last 4 out.

In order to say UConn is out, you need to pick teams with better resumes. It's kinda hard to find them.

Few points. I don't mean to discount wins from three months ago. Just not geeked up about wins over FSU and Harvard. Nothing wrong with those wins but this team is clearly not the same team that it was 2-3 months ago. Doesn't that matter? You mention their good wins but ignore their bad losses. You mention UCF as one of Lunardi's last four out. UCF beat UConn this season. Btw, Lunardi is a tool. He relies heavily on the rpi. I have to give him credit though because to get paid for the value he adds is rather impressive.

 

[Knicks411]

UConn doesn't really have a lot of bad losses. They've lost to one team outside the top 100 in the Pomeroy ratings, and that was @Rutgers, who is barely outside the top 100. UCF has lost to Louisana Lafayette and Rice, for instance.

 

[bpo57]

One of the teams that you see as garbage (UCF) is on the bubble. Perhaps now you will finally realize how weak the at larges are.

Never said they were garbage. A previous poster tried to make UConn's case by citing their wins against high rpi teams and I countered by pointing out their low rpi losses.

 

[bpo57]

I've got an idea. Let's expand the tournament and let even more crappy teams in! :bang:

That's where we're headed. If it ain't broke don't fix it.