The Strasburg shutdown

[Orangeyes]

Thoughts

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/jun/19/comak-strasburg-reaching-his-limit-is-inevitable/

 

[orangehomer]

Two words: Mark Prior - 211 innings as a 22 year old and he was never the same.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/priorma01.shtml

they should DL strasburg a couple times and if the team wins without him he can pitch in the post-season.

 

[donniesyracuse]

Why couldn't they have begun his season in June or July?

 

[br801]

Why couldn't they have begun his season in June or July?

Yes, start him off about 50 games into the season. Then if it appears you are likely to make the post-season in late August, skip his turn a few times or give him extra days so he doesn't blow past his innings limit in the playoffs. To my knowledge no one has tried this with a valuable young arm. But if some team does and it works out well, other teams will surely follow suit.

 

[Knicks411]

I don't know if you just shut the kid down to start the season. It's real hard, but I am also not sure just pitching him 160 innings is the right answer.

they should DL strasburg a couple times and if the team wins without him he can pitch in the post-season.

But he's also their best pitcher; you kinda owe it to the team to try and win with your best pitcher.

 

[br801]

I don't know if you just shut the kid down to start the season. It's real hard, but I am also not sure just pitching him 160 innings is the right answer.

If you really intend to limit someone's innings, I'd prefer to see it happen by holding the guy out at the beginning of the season. I think shutting down a healthy pitcher in season for a long stretch and then cranking him back up again would be more of a potentail health risk.

That said, I grew up in an era when front line starters made 40 starts and pitched 300+ innings a year, so this conservative approach to handling young arms we see today seems kind of crazy to me.

 

[Knicks411]

If you really intend to limit someone's innings, I'd prefer to see it happen by holding the guy out at the beginning of the season. I think shutting down a healthy pitcher in season for a long stretch and then cranking him back up again would be more of a potentail health risk.

I dunno, just seems off to me. Does he go through spring training with everyone else? You aren't just going to start him in game 51 or whatever, he's going to need to stretch out before that, so do those innings count toward his innings cap?

I thinkt he 160 innings cap is a bad idea.

 

[br801]

I dunno, just seems off to me. Does he go through spring training with everyone else? You aren't just going to start him in game 51 or whatever, he's going to need to stretch out before that, so do those innings count toward his innings cap?

I thinkt he 160 innings cap is a bad idea.

I don't have the answers, but imagine you would just stretch him out in the minors or in an instructional league setting before bringing him up. I wouldn't think those innings would count against the limit, as I don't think they start the clock on these guys in spring training now.

Another thing that's curious is that they limit these guys in a macro sense based on total innings and not on total pitches thrown. Doesn't make sense to me, but none of this really does.

 

[orangehomer]

If you really intend to limit someone's innings, I'd prefer to see it happen by holding the guy out at the beginning of the season. I think shutting down a healthy pitcher in season for a long stretch and then cranking him back up again would be more of a potentail health risk.

That said, I grew up in an era when front line starters made 40 starts and pitched 300+ innings a year, so this conservative approach to handling young arms we see today seems kind of crazy to me.

just a few things to consider:

-first, i don't think you shut him down in the sense that he is going to be sitting on the couch for a month. i think you would still have him pitching simulated games every fifth day and going through the routine, the difference is the focus is on mechanics instead of live game preparation.
-i think the era of guys pitching that many innings is gone. i think that the guys in those days were more like "pitchers" whereas todays guys are more like "throwers". strasburg seems to be the elite type of guy that is a "thrower" but can still "pitch" if you follow my logic.
-also remember that strasburg is one year off of elbow surgery. there is enough risk with overthrowing young pitchers as it is, add in that he didn't pitch last year and has already had tommy john. i just think this kid has way too bright of a future to risk mark prior'ing him for one post-season run, and potentially losing a guy who could be a franchise ace for the next decade. washington needs to be patient here, this is essentially a rehab year for strasburg.

 

[Knicks411]

I don't have the answers, but imagine you would just stretch him out in the minors or in an instructional league setting before bringing him up. I wouldn't think those innings would count against the limit, as I don't think they start the clock on these guys in spring training now.

Another thing that's curious is that they limit these guys in a macro sense based on total innings and not on total pitches thrown. Doesn't make sense to me, but none of this really does.

Yeah, there are a lot of questions.

And even total pitches thrown leaves a lot to be desired; since not every pitch ic created equally.

i just think this kid has way too bright of a future to risk mark prior'ing him for one post-season run, and potentially losing a guy who could be a franchise ace for the next decade. washington needs to be patient here, this is essentially a rehab year for strasburg.

The only problem I have with this is it's such an inexact science. It's not like we know for sure that if Strasburg throws, say, 200 innings this year that he will get hurt, and that if he throws 160 innings instead, he won't get hurt. Some guys throw a ton of innings and never get hurt, others get hurt and don't throw a lot of innings. (Remember the Joba rules?) Maybe Strasburg throws 160 IP this year, they shut him down, Washington flames out in the playoffs, and then he gets hurt next year anyway. So you missed out on a chance to win the WS for nothing.

I'm not saying ride the kid into the ground. But I think the strict inning limit is kind of stupid.

 

[upperdeck]

probably better off just trying to limit the 7-8-9 inning games its the stress innings that are probably the issue mora than the actual number.

 

[orangehomer]

Yeah, there are a lot of questions.

And even total pitches thrown leaves a lot to be desired; since not every pitch ic created equally.



The only problem I have with this is it's such an inexact science. It's not like we know for sure that if Strasburg throws, say, 200 innings this year that he will get hurt, and that if he throws 160 innings instead, he won't get hurt. Some guys throw a ton of innings and never get hurt, others get hurt and don't throw a lot of innings. (Remember the Joba rules?) Maybe Strasburg throws 160 IP this year, they shut him down, Washington flames out in the playoffs, and then he gets hurt next year anyway. So you missed out on a chance to win the WS for nothing.

I'm not saying ride the kid into the ground. But I think the strict inning limit is kind of stupid.

i'm not sure i agree with this, the trainers have evidence and they know the stats on innings and age. if baseball has anything it has an incredible database of information. i don't think it would be hard to show a trend relative to young pitchers throwing too many inning and ending up hurt, especially the following year. this kid is a 20 win season candidate for the next decade. risking that future over an extra 50 innings is idiotic.

 

[Knicks411]

i'm not sure i agree with this, the trainers have evidence and they know the stats on innings and age. if baseball has anything it has an incredible database of information. i don't think it would be hard to show a trend relative to young pitchers throwing too many inning and ending up hurt, especially the following year. this kid is a 20 win season candidate for the next decade. risking that future over an extra 50 innings is idiotic.

I haven't seen much. Pitchers get hurt all the time. They get hurt when they throw 50 innings, and they get hurt when they throw 250. Justin Verlander has thrown 200 innings a season since he was 23, he's been fine.

i don't think it would be hard to show a trend relative to young pitchers throwing too many inning and ending up hurt, especially the following year.

I guess the question is how many is too many. Should the guy throw 230 innings this year, plus playoffs? Probably not. But I don't think they should just shut him down at 160 if the team is in the playoff race, which it looks like is going to be the case.

Like I said, there's every chance Strasburg is going to get hurt next year regardless of how many innings he throws this year.

 

[jekelish]

What I don't understand, and what the Nats have repeatedly said they won't do, is why they don't just skip his turn in the rotation now and then, or at least bump his starts back and basically go with a six man rotation. They certainly have the arms to pull that off, with Gio, Zimmermann, Jackson, Detwiler and Wang, not to mention John Lannan down in AAA (remember, Lannan led the team in wins last year). Extend his season as long as possible, even if you're going for the 160 limit. If the Nats do make the postseason, as well as everyone else has pitched, they won't win without Stras.

 

[Knicks411]

What I don't understand, and what the Nats have repeatedly said they won't do, is why they don't just skip his turn in the rotation now and then, or at least bump his starts back and basically go with a six man rotation. They certainly have the arms to pull that off, with Gio, Zimmermann, Jackson, Detwiler and Wang, not to mention John Lannan down in AAA (remember, Lannan led the team in wins last year). Extend his season as long as possible, even if you're going for the 160 limit. If the Nats do make the postseason, as well as everyone else has pitched, they won't win without Stras.

Yeah this would seem to make the most sense.

 

[Guy Fawkes]

Yeah this would seem to make the most sense.

The 25 man roster won't allow them to have a 6 man rotation especially with the Nats that have a whole slew of injuries to their bullpen, catchers and outfielders. If it was a 40 man roster it would be feasible. I believe you can limit Strasburg's innings by having a 75 pitch limit with a 5 inning limit. This is a modified plan based on what Coloraldo Rockies are doing.

I do know if I was drafted that I would want to be in the Nats farm system. Their strategic planning, advanced scouting, and patience and attentiveness to the farm system is impeccable.

 

[Knicks411]

The 25 man roster won't allow them to have a 6 man rotation especially with the Nats that have a whole slew of injuries to their bullpen, catchers and outfielders. If it was a 40 man roster it would be feasible. I believe you can limit Strasburg's innings by having a 75 pitch limit with a 5 inning limit. This is a modified plan based on what Coloraldo Rockies are doing.

Aren't they carrying 6 starters right now?

 

[Guy Fawkes]

Aren't they carrying 6 starters right now?

Most teams carry six starters and use the sixth guy as a long reliever or in spot starts but if you go to a regular sixth man rotation then the other starters will have their schedules significantly changed. Most pitchers are robots during the season with their workouts and pitching routines so if you add an additional day of rest due to the 6 man rotation and maybe an off day it could lead to some issues. Not sure you'd see the benefit of those extra days off besides in saving Strasburg for playoffs which could be to the detriment of team and other starters.

I think position players are similar to nba players (this season with the shortened schedule) where they need one day a rest a week to keep fresh. Pitchers need to stay in their regularly scheduled rotations unless of an injury or dead arm (see Phil Hughes).

 

[Knicks411]

Most pitchers are robots during the season with their workouts and pitching routines so if you add an additional day of rest due to the 6 man rotation and maybe an off day it could lead to some issues.

I hear what you are saying, but they are thrown off a lot during the season anyway. Most teams don't skip a guy if they have an off day, so sometimes a guy is going on 4 days rest, other times 5.

But I think the idea was just to do this sometimes; they don't need to go to strict 6 man rotation.

 

[jekelish]

I hear what you are saying, but they are thrown off a lot during the season anyway. Most teams don't skip a guy if they have an off day, so sometimes a guy is going on 4 days rest, other times 5.

But I think the idea was just to do this sometimes; they don't need to go to strict 6 man rotation.

Yeah, my idea wasn't that they'd go to a 6 man rotation, but now and then push Strasburg's start back and give Wang a spot start every couple of weeks.