The Ultimate March Madness

[SWC75]

For a little post-tournament fun, I decided to set up an all-time NCAA basketball tournament using a relatively simple procedure:
1) Choose and seed a 64 team field by all-time wins overall
2) Create a bracket by putting the odd seeds in order and the even seeds in reverse order. Region 1 gets the top overall seed, Region 2 gets the second one, Region 3 the third and Region 4 the fourth. Then Region 4 gets the top #2 seed, Region 3 the second best #2 seed, Region 2 the third best and Region 1 the fourth best, etc.
3) Decide the winner by all-time NCAA tournament wins. If that is a tie, I’ll use the fewest losses.
4) Sources: School Index | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/m_final4/2022/Tournament.pdf

Here are the seedings, (the numbers are the overall historical victories by that school):
1- Kansas (2357), Kentucky (2355), North Carolina (2322), Duke (2246)
2- Syracuse (2057), Temple (1962), UCLA (1958), St. John’s (1950)
3- Notre Dame (1937), Brigham Young (1897), Louisville (1895), Indiana (1886)
4- Purdue (1884), Cincinnati (1865), Arizona (1858), Utah (1858)
5- Illinois (1856), Western Kentucky (1852), Villanova (1851), Texas (1849)
6- Washington (1834), Ohio State (1830), West Virginia (1827), Pennsylvania (1813)
7- Oregon State (1801), Princeton (1784), North Carolina State (1782), Michigan State (1777)
8- Arkansas (1761), Oklahoma (1759), Alabama (1738), Oregon (1732)
9- Bradley (1721), Iowa (1721), Tennessee (1718), Oklahoma State (1714)
10- Connecticut (1713), Dayton (1712), Georgetown (1706), Virginia (1694)
11- Southern California (1692), Kansas State (1691), Minnesota (1690), Marquette (1683)
12- Missouri (1683), Wisconsin (1678), Michigan (1676), St. Joseph’s (1668)
13- Utah State (1667), California (1656), Pittsburgh (1652), Vanderbilt (1645)
14- Washington State (1645), Butler (1643), Wichita State (1640), Creighton (1631)
15- Louisiana State (1624), Maryland (1619), New Mexico State (1603), Ohio University (1599)
16- Wyoming (1585), Wake Forest (1581), Stanford (1579), Seton Hall (1570)

Here’s the bracket, with the coaching matchups, (the winningest coach at each school):

REGION 1
1 Kansas vs. 16 Seton Hall Phog Allen vs. Honey Russell
2 St. John’s vs. 15 Louisiana State Lou Carnesecca vs. Dale Brown
3 Notre Dame vs. 14 Creighton Mike Brey vs. Dana Altman
4 Utah vs. 13 Utah State Vadal Peterson vs. Stew Morrill
5 Illinois vs. 12 St. Joseph’s Lou Henson vs. Phil Martelli
6 Pennsylvania vs. 11 Southern California Fran Dunphy vs. Sam Berry
7 Oregon State vs. 10 Virginia Slats Gil vs. Terry Holland
8 Oregon vs. 9 Bradley Ernie Kent* vs. Alfred Robertson
(*Dana Altman is the winningest coach at both Creighton and Oregon but you can’t coach two teams and he won more games at Creighton. Ernie Kent is Oregon’s second winningest coach.)

REGION 2
1 Kentucky vs. 16 Stanford Adolph Rupp vs. Mike Montgomery
2 UCLA vs. 15 Maryland John Wooden vs. Gary Williams
3 Brigham Young vs. 14 Wichita State Stan Watts vs. Gregg Marshall
4 Arizona vs. 13 California Lute Olson vs. Nibs Price
5 Western Kentucky vs. 12 Michigan Ed Diddle vs. John Beilein
6 West Virginia vs. 11 Kansas State Gale Catlett vs. Jack Hartman
7 Princeton vs. 10 Georgetown Pete Carril vs. John Thompson Jr.
8 Alabama vs. 9 Iowa Wimp Sanderson vs. Tom Davis

REGION 3
1 North Carolina vs. 16 Wake Forest Dean Smith vs. Murray Greason
2 Temple vs. 15 New Mexico State John Chaney vs. Neil McCarthy*
3 Louisville vs. 14 Butler Denny Crum vs. Tony Hinkle
4 Cincinnati vs. 13 Pittsburgh Bob Huggins vs. Doc Carlson
5 Villanova vs. 12 Wisconsin Jay Wright vs. Bo Ryan
6 Ohio State vs. 11 Minnesota Thad Matta vs. Louis Cooke
7 North Carolina State vs. 10 Dayton Everett Case vs. Don Donoher
8 Oklahoma vs. 9 Tennessee Billy Tubbs vs. Ray Mears
(Lou Henson is the winningest coach at both New Mexico State and Illinois but he can’t coach two teams and won more games at Illinois. Neil McCarthy is the second winningest coach at New Mexico State.)

REGION 4
1 Duke vs. 16 Wyoming Mike Krzyzewski vs. Everett Shelton
2 Syracuse vs. 15 Ohio University Jim Boeheim vs. James Snyder
3 Indiana vs. 14 Washington State Bobby Knight vs. Jack Friel
4 Purdue vs. 13 Vanderbilt Gene Keady vs. Kevin Stallings
5 Texas vs. 12 Missouri Rick Barnes vs. Norm Stewart
6 Washington vs. 11 Marquette Hec Edmundson vs. Al McGuire
7 Michigan State vs. 10 Connecticut Tom Izzo vs. Jim Calhoun
8 Arkansas vs. 9 Oklahoma State Nolan Richardson vs. Hank Iba

ROUND OF 64
(The numbers are the total number of NCAA tournaments victories the schools have in their history. I’ve added this year’s results to the totals in the second link, above.)

Region 1 results
Kansas (115) beat Seton Hall (16)
Louisiana State (27-26) beat St. John’s (27-32)
Notre Dame (39) beat Creighton (14)
Utah (38) beat Utah State (6)
Illinois (42) beat St. Joseph’s (19)
Southern California (17) beat Pennsylvania (13)
Virginia (35) beat Oregon State (15)
Oregon (26) beat Bradley (11)

Matchups for the Round of 32:
1 Kansas vs. 8 Oregon Phog Allen vs. Ernie Kent
15 Louisiana State vs. 10 Virginia Dale Brown vs. Terry Holland
3 Notre Dame vs. 11 Southern California Mike Brey vs. Sam Barry
4 Utah vs 5 Illinois Vadal Peterson vs. Lou Henson

Region 2 results
Kentucky (131) beat Stanford (23)
UCLA (113) beat Maryland (43)
Wichita State (18) beat Brigham Young (15)
Arizona (58) beat California (20)
Michigan (66) beat Western Kentucky (19)
Kansas State (37) beat West Virginia (32)
Georgetown (47) beat Princeton (13)
Iowa (31) beat Alabama (23)

Matchups for the Round of 32:
1 Kentucky vs. 9 Iowa Adolph Rupp vs. Tom Davis
2 UCLA vs. 10 Georgetown John Wooden vs. John Thompson Jr.
14 Wichita State vs. 11 Kansas State Gregg Marshall vs. Jack Hartman
4 Arizona vs. 12 Michigan Lute Olson vs. John Beilein

Region 3 results
North Carolina (131) beat Wake Forest (28)
Temple (33) beat New Mexico State (11)
Louisville (76) beat Butler (24)
Cincinnati (46) beat Pittsburgh (24)
Villanova (71) beat Wisconsin (40)
Ohio State (58) beat Minnesota (14)
North Carolina State (37) beat Dayton (19)
Oklahoma (43) beat Tennessee (23)

Matchups for the Round of 32:
1 North Carolina vs. 8 Oklahoma Dean Smith vs. Billy Tubbs
2 Temple vs. 7 North Carolina State John Chaney vs. Everett Case
3 Louisville vs. 6 Ohio State Denny Crum vs. Thad Matta
4 Cincinnati vs. 5 Villanova Bob Huggins vs. Jay Wright

Region 4 results
Duke (118) beat Wyoming (9)
Syracuse (70) beat Ohio University (8)
Indiana (66) beat Washington State (6)
Purdue (44) beat Vanderbilt (10)
Texas (36) beat Missouri (22)
Marquette (41) beat Washington (19)
Michigan State (70) beat Connecticut (59)
Arkansas (48) beat Oklahoma State (39)

Round of 32 match-ups
1 Duke vs. 8 Arkansas Mike Krzyzewski vs. Nolan Richardson
2 Syracuse vs. 7 Michigan State Jim Boeheim vs. Tom Izzo
3 Indiana vs. 11 Marquette Bobby Knight vs. Al McGuire
4 Purdue vs. 5 Texas Gene Keady vs. Rick Barnes

ROUND OF 32

Region 1 results
Kansas (115) beat Oregon (26)
Virginia (35) beat Louisiana State (27)
Notre Dame (39) beat Southern California (17)
Illinois (42) beat Utah (38)

Matchups for the Sweet 16:
1 Kansas vs. 5 Illinois Phog Allen vs. Lou Henson
3 Notre Dame vs. 10 Virginia Mike Brey vs. Terry Holland

Region 2 results
Kentucky (131) beat Iowa (31)
UCLA (113) beat Georgetown (47)
Kansas State (37) beat Wichita State (18)
Michigan (66) beat Arizona (58)

Matchups for the Sweet 16:
1 Kentucky vs 12 Michigan Adolph Rupp vs. John Beilein
2 UCLA vs. 11 Kansas State John Wooden vs. Jack Hartman

Region 3 results
North Carolina (131) beat Oklahoma (43)
North Carolina State (37) beat Temple (33)
Louisville (76) beat Ohio State (58)
Villanova (71) beat Cincinnati (46)

Matchups for the Round of 32:
1 North Carolina vs. 5 Villanova Dean Smith vs. Jay Wright
7 North Carolina State vs. 3 Louisville Everett Case vs. Denny Crum

Region 4 results
Duke (118) beat Arkansas (48)
Michigan State (70-34) beat Syracuse (70-41) – which means we lost in OT, tough draw.
Indiana (66) beat Marquette (41)
Purdue (44) beat Texas (36)

Matchups for the Round of 32:
1 Duke vs. 4 Purdue Mike Krzyzewski vs. Gene Keady
7 Michigan State vs. 3 Indiana Tom Izzo vs. Bobby Knight


SWEET 16

Region 1 results
Kansas (115) beat Illinois (42)
Notre Dame (39) beat Virginia (35)

Elite 8 match-up
1 Kansas vs. 3 Notre Dame Phog Allen vs. Mike Brey

Region 2 results
Kentucky (131) beat Michigan (66)
UCLA (113) beat Kansas State (37)

Elite 8 match-up
1 Kentucky vs 2 UCLA Adolph Rupp vs. John Wooden

Region 3 results
North Carolina (131) beat Villanova (71)
Louisville (76) beat North Carolina State (37)

Elite 8 match-up
1 North Carolina vs. 3 Louisville Dean Smith vs. Denny Crum

Region 4 results
Duke (118) beat Purdue (44)
Michigan State (70) vs. Indiana (66)

Elite 8 match-up
1 Duke vs. 7 Michigan State Mike Krzyzewski vs. Tom Izzo


ELITE 8

Region 1: Kansas (115) beat Notre Dame (39) Phog Allen over Mike Brey
Region 2: Kentucky (131) beat UCLA (113) Adolph Rupp over John Wooden
Region 3: North Carolina (131) beat Louisville (76) Dean Smith over Denny Crum
Region 4: Duke (118) beat Michigan State (70) Mike Krzyzewski over Tom Izzo

FINAL FOUR

Semi-final: Kentucky (131) beat Kansas (115) Adolph Rupp over Phog Allen
Semi-final: North Carolina (131) beat Duke (118) Dean Smith over Mike Krzyzewski

National Championship game:
North Carolina (131-49) beat Kentucky (131-54) in overtime Dean Smith over Adolph Rupp

What does it prove? Nothing. But it’s fun to visualize it.

 

[miamicuse]

Interesting and a great read!

But this does not allow for any surprises which is a key ingredient of the madness in March Madness. You need to add a coin toss component to each game.

 

[rrlbees]

For a little port-tournament fun, I decided to set up an all-time NCAA basketball tournament using a relatively simple procedure:
1) Choose and seed a 64 team field by all-time wins overall
2) Create a bracket by putting the odd seeds in order and the even seeds in reverse order. Region 1 gets the top overall seed, Region 2 gets the second one, Region 3 the third and Region 4 the fourth. Then Region 4 gets the top #2 seed, Region 3 the second best #2 seed, Region 2 the third best and Region 1 the fourth best, etc.
3) Decide the winner by all-time NCAA tournament wins. If that is a tie, I’ll use the fewest losses.
4) Sources: School Index | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/m_final4/2022/Tournament.pdf

Here are the seedings, (the numbers are the overall historical victories by that school):
1- Kansas (2357), Kentucky (2355), North Carolina (2322), Duke (2246)
2- Syracuse (2057), Temple (1962), UCLA (1958), St. John’s (1950)
3- Notre Dame (1937), Brigham Young (1897), Louisville (1895), Indiana (1886)
4- Purdue (1884), Cincinnati (1865), Arizona (1858), Utah (1858)
5- Illinois (1856), Western Kentucky (1852), Villanova (1851), Texas (1849)
6- Washington (1834), Ohio State (1830), West Virginia (1827), Pennsylvania (1813)
7- Oregon State (1801), Princeton (1784), North Carolina State (1782), Michigan State (1777)
8- Arkansas (1761), Oklahoma (1759), Alabama (1738), Oregon (1732)
9- Bradley (1721), Iowa (1721), Tennessee (1718), Oklahoma State (1714)
10- Connecticut (1713), Dayton (1712), Georgetown (1706), Virginia (1694)
11- Southern California (1692), Kansas State (1691), Minnesota (1690), Marquette (1683)
12- Missouri (1683), Wisconsin (1678), Michigan (1676), St. Joseph’s (1668)
13- Utah State (1667), California (1656), Pittsburgh (1652), Vanderbilt (1645)
14- Washington State (1645), Butler (1643), Wichita State (1640), Creighton (1631)
15- Louisiana State (1624), Maryland (1619), New Mexico State (1603), Ohio University (1599)
16- Wyoming (1585), Wake Forest (1581), Stanford (1579), Seton Hall (1570)

Here’s the bracket, with the coaching matchups, (the winningest coach at each school):

REGION 1
1 Kansas vs. 16 Seton Hall Phog Allen vs. Honey Russell
2 St. John’s vs. 15 Louisiana State Lou Carnesecca vs. Dale Brown
3 Notre Dame vs. 14 Creighton Mike Brey vs. Dana Altman
4 Utah vs. 13 Utah State Vadal Peterson vs. Stew Morrill
5 Illinois vs. 12 St. Joseph’s Lou Henson vs. Phil Martelli
6 Pennsylvania vs. 11 Southern California Fran Dunphy vs. Sam Berry
7 Oregon State vs. 10 Virginia Slats Gil vs. Terry Holland
8 Oregon vs. 9 Bradley Ernie Kent* vs. Alfred Robertson
(*Dana Altman is the winningest coach at both Creighton and Oregon but you can’t coach two teams and he won more games at Creighton. Ernie Kent is Oregon’s second winningest coach.)

REGION 2
1 Kentucky vs. 16 Stanford Adolph Rupp vs. Mike Montgomery
2 UCLA vs. 15 Maryland John Wooden vs. Gary Williams
3 Brigham Young vs. 14 Wichita State Stan Watts vs. Gregg Marshall
4 Arizona vs. 13 California Lute Olson vs. Nibs Price
5 Western Kentucky vs. 12 Michigan Ed Diddle vs. John Beilein
6 West Virginia vs. 11 Kansas State Gale Catlett vs. Jack Hartman
7 Princeton vs. 10 Georgetown Pete Carril vs. John Thompson Jr.
8 Alabama vs. 9 Iowa Wimp Sanderson vs. Tom Davis

REGION 3
1 North Carolina vs. 16 Wake Forest Dean Smith vs. Murray Greason
2 Temple vs. 15 New Mexico State John Chaney vs. Neil McCarthy*
3 Louisville vs. 14 Butler Denny Crum vs. Tony Hinkle
4 Cincinnati vs. 13 Pittsburgh Bob Huggins vs. Doc Carlson
5 Villanova vs. 12 Wisconsin Jay Wright vs. Bo Ryan
6 Ohio State vs. 11 Minnesota Thad Matta vs. Louis Cooke
7 North Carolina State vs. 10 Dayton Everett Case vs. Don Donoher
8 Oklahoma vs. 9 Tennessee Billy Tubbs vs. Ray Mears
(Lou Henson is the winningest coach at both New Mexico State and Illinois but he can’t coach two teams and won more games at Illinois. Neil McCarthy is the second winningest coach at New Mexico State.)

REGION 4
1 Duke vs. 16 Wyoming Mike Krzyzewski vs. Everett Shelton
2 Syracuse vs. 15 Ohio University Jim Boeheim vs. James Snyder
3 Indiana vs. 14 Washington State Bobby Knight vs. Jack Friel
4 Purdue vs. 13 Vanderbilt Gene Keady vs. Kevin Stallings
5 Texas vs. 12 Missouri Rick Barnes vs. Norm Stewart
6 Washington vs. 11 Marquette Hec Edmundson vs. Al McGuire
7 Michigan State vs. 10 Connecticut Tom Izzo vs. Jim Calhoun
8 Arkansas vs. 9 Oklahoma State Nolan Richardson vs. Hank Iba

ROUND OF 64
(The numbers are the total number of NCAA tournaments victories the schools have in their history. I’ve added this year’s results to the totals in the second link, above.)

Region 1 results
Kansas (115) beat Seton Hall (16)
Louisiana State (27-26) beat St. John’s (27-32)
Notre Dame (39) beat Creighton (14)
Utah (38) beat Utah State (6)
Illinois (42) beat St. Joseph’s (19)
Southern California (17) beat Pennsylvania (13)
Virginia (35) beat Oregon State (15)
Oregon (26) beat Bradley (11)

Matchups for the Round of 32:
1 Kansas vs. 8 Oregon Phog Allen vs. Ernie Kent
15 Louisiana State vs. 10 Virginia Dale Brown vs. Terry Holland
3 Notre Dame vs. 11 Southern California Mike Brey vs. Sam Barry
4 Utah vs 5 Illinois Vadal Peterson vs. Lou Henson

Region 2 results
Kentucky (131) beat Stanford (23)
UCLA (113) beat Maryland (43)
Wichita State (18) beat Brigham Young (15)
Arizona (58) beat California (20)
Michigan (66) beat Western Kentucky (19)
Kansas State (37) beat West Virginia (32)
Georgetown (47) beat Princeton (13)
Iowa (31) beat Alabama (23)

Matchups for the Round of 32:
1 Kentucky vs. 9 Iowa Adolph Rupp vs. Tom Davis
2 UCLA vs. 10 Georgetown John Wooden vs. John Thompson Jr.
14 Wichita State vs. 11 Kansas State Gregg Marshall vs. Jack Hartman
4 Arizona vs. 12 Michigan Lute Olson vs. John Beilein

Region 3 results
North Carolina (131) beat Wake Forest (28)
Temple (33) beat New Mexico State (11)
Louisville (76) beat Butler (24)
Cincinnati (46) beat Pittsburgh (24)
Villanova (71) beat Wisconsin (40)
Ohio State (58) beat Minnesota (14)
North Carolina State (37) beat Dayton (19)
Oklahoma (43) beat Tennessee (23)

Matchups for the Round of 32:
1 North Carolina vs. 8 Oklahoma Dean Smith vs. Billy Tubbs
2 Temple vs. 7 North Carolina State John Chaney vs. Everett Case
3 Louisville vs. 6 Ohio State Denny Crum vs. Thad Matta
4 Cincinnati vs. 5 Villanova Bob Huggins vs. Jay Wright

Region 4 results
Duke (118) beat Wyoming (9)
Syracuse (70) beat Ohio University (8)
Indiana (66) beat Washington State (6)
Purdue (44) beat Vanderbilt (10)
Texas (36) beat Missouri (22)
Marquette (41) beat Washington (19)
Michigan State (70) beat Connecticut (59)
Arkansas (48) beat Oklahoma State (39)

Round of 32 match-ups
1 Duke vs. 8 Arkansas Mike Krzyzewski vs. Nolan Richardson
2 Syracuse vs. 7 Michigan State Jim Boeheim vs. Tom Izzo
3 Indiana vs. 11 Marquette Bobby Knight vs. Al McGuire
4 Purdue vs. 5 Texas Gene Keady vs. Rick Barnes

ROUND OF 32

Region 1 results
Kansas (115) beat Oregon (26)
Virginia (35) beat Louisiana State (27)
Notre Dame (39) beat Southern California (17)
Illinois (42) beat Utah (38)

Matchups for the Sweet 16:
1 Kansas vs. 5 Illinois Phog Allen vs. Lou Henson
3 Notre Dame vs. 10 Virginia Mike Brey vs. Terry Holland

Region 2 results
Kentucky (131) beat Iowa (31)
UCLA (113) beat Georgetown (47)
Kansas State (37) beat Wichita State (18)
Michigan (66) beat Arizona (58)

Matchups for the Sweet 16:
1 Kentucky vs 12 Michigan Adolph Rupp vs. John Beilein
2 UCLA vs. 11 Kansas State John Wooden vs. Jack Hartman

Region 3 results
North Carolina (131) beat Oklahoma (43)
North Carolina State (37) beat Temple (33)
Louisville (76) beat Ohio State (58)
Villanova (71) beat Cincinnati (46)

Matchups for the Round of 32:
1 North Carolina vs. 5 Villanova Dean Smith vs. Jay Wright
7 North Carolina State vs. 3 Louisville Everett Case vs. Denny Crum

Region 4 results
Duke (118) beat Arkansas (48)
Michigan State (70-34) beat Syracuse (70-41) – which means we lost in OT, tough draw.
Indiana (66) beat Marquette (41)
Purdue (44) beat Texas (36)

Matchups for the Round of 32:
1 Duke vs. 4 Purdue Mike Krzyzewski vs. Gene Keady
7 Michigan State vs. 3 Indiana Tom Izzo vs. Bobby Knight


SWEET 16

Region 1 results
Kansas (115) beat Illinois (42)
Notre Dame (39) beat Virginia (35)

Elite 8 match-up
1 Kansas vs. 3 Notre Dame Phog Allen vs. Mike Brey

Region 2 results
Kentucky (131) beat Michigan (66)
UCLA (113) beat Kansas State (37)

Elite 8 match-up
1 Kentucky vs 2 UCLA Adolph Rupp vs. John Wooden

Region 3 results
North Carolina (131) beat Villanova (71)
Louisville (76) beat North Carolina State (37)

Elite 8 match-up
1 North Carolina vs. 3 Louisville Dean Smith vs. Denny Crum

Region 4 results
Duke (118) beat Purdue (44)
Michigan State (70) vs. Indiana (66)

Elite 8 match-up
1 Duke vs. 7 Michigan State Mike Krzyzewski vs. Tom Izzo


ELITE 8

Region 1: Kansas (115) beat Notre Dame (39) Phog Allen over Mike Brey
Region 2: Kentucky (131) beat UCLA (113) Adolph Rupp over John Wooden
Region 3: North Carolina (131) beat Louisville (76) Dean Smith over Denny Crum
Region 4: Duke (118) beat Michigan State (70) Mike Krzyzewski over Tom Izzo

FINAL FOUR

Semi-final: Kentucky (131) beat Kansas (115) Adolph Rupp over Phog Allen
Semi-final: North Carolina (131) beat Duke (118) Dean Smith over Mike Krzyzewski

National Championship game:
North Carolina (131-49) beat Kentucky (131-54) in overtime Dean Smith over Adolph Rupp

What does it prove? Nothing. But it’s fun to visualize it.

SU got screwed

 

[721Comstock]

SU got screwed

At least we weren't sweating it out on the bubble for this.

 

[SWC75]

Interesting and a great read!

But this does not allow for any surprises which is a key ingredient of the madness in March Madness. You need to add a coin toss component to each game.

The surprises come from using the school's all-time wins for seeding but their NCAA wins for results. It's not 'chalk'. SU, a 2 seed, loses to Michigan State, a 7 seed, for example.

 

[SWC75]

SU got screwed

I had no idea of the results when I set up the system and felt I should stick with the plan. That's just how it came out.

 

[miamicuse]

The surprises come from using the school's all-time wins for seeding but their NCAA wins for results. It's not 'chalk'. SU, a 2 seed, loses to Michigan State, a 7 seed, for example.

I understand that, but this is not a "true" surprise in a sense that once the winning criteria is determined, the outcome is determined and completely repeatable each and every time.

If you had used another criteria say the sum of the five starters jersey numbers with the winner going to a higher sum, it may sound random but it's still repeatable.

A true randomness can be built in by say use the all time win, or the regular season win of that year (which already played a role in the seeding) or all time head to head between the two schools (if any), but assign a percentage point of that number to a real coin toss. In that every time you go through the process, it may yield different results. Just as I believe if we redo the most recent tournament with the same team all over again, the result could be completely different.

Of course, I am just arguing for the sake of arguing, so don't mind me lol.

 

[dollarbill44]

For a little post-tournament fun, I decided to set up an all-time NCAA basketball tournament using a relatively simple procedure:
1) Choose and seed a 64 team field by all-time wins overall
2) Create a bracket by putting the odd seeds in order and the even seeds in reverse order. Region 1 gets the top overall seed, Region 2 gets the second one, Region 3 the third and Region 4 the fourth. Then Region 4 gets the top #2 seed, Region 3 the second best #2 seed, Region 2 the third best and Region 1 the fourth best, etc.
3) Decide the winner by all-time NCAA tournament wins. If that is a tie, I’ll use the fewest losses.
4) Sources: School Index | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/m_final4/2022/Tournament.pdf

Here are the seedings, (the numbers are the overall historical victories by that school):
1- Kansas (2357), Kentucky (2355), North Carolina (2322), Duke (2246)
2- Syracuse (2057), Temple (1962), UCLA (1958), St. John’s (1950)
3- Notre Dame (1937), Brigham Young (1897), Louisville (1895), Indiana (1886)
4- Purdue (1884), Cincinnati (1865), Arizona (1858), Utah (1858)
5- Illinois (1856), Western Kentucky (1852), Villanova (1851), Texas (1849)
6- Washington (1834), Ohio State (1830), West Virginia (1827), Pennsylvania (1813)
7- Oregon State (1801), Princeton (1784), North Carolina State (1782), Michigan State (1777)
8- Arkansas (1761), Oklahoma (1759), Alabama (1738), Oregon (1732)
9- Bradley (1721), Iowa (1721), Tennessee (1718), Oklahoma State (1714)
10- Connecticut (1713), Dayton (1712), Georgetown (1706), Virginia (1694)
11- Southern California (1692), Kansas State (1691), Minnesota (1690), Marquette (1683)
12- Missouri (1683), Wisconsin (1678), Michigan (1676), St. Joseph’s (1668)
13- Utah State (1667), California (1656), Pittsburgh (1652), Vanderbilt (1645)
14- Washington State (1645), Butler (1643), Wichita State (1640), Creighton (1631)
15- Louisiana State (1624), Maryland (1619), New Mexico State (1603), Ohio University (1599)
16- Wyoming (1585), Wake Forest (1581), Stanford (1579), Seton Hall (1570)

Here’s the bracket, with the coaching matchups, (the winningest coach at each school):

REGION 1
1 Kansas vs. 16 Seton Hall Phog Allen vs. Honey Russell
2 St. John’s vs. 15 Louisiana State Lou Carnesecca vs. Dale Brown
3 Notre Dame vs. 14 Creighton Mike Brey vs. Dana Altman
4 Utah vs. 13 Utah State Vadal Peterson vs. Stew Morrill
5 Illinois vs. 12 St. Joseph’s Lou Henson vs. Phil Martelli
6 Pennsylvania vs. 11 Southern California Fran Dunphy vs. Sam Berry
7 Oregon State vs. 10 Virginia Slats Gil vs. Terry Holland
8 Oregon vs. 9 Bradley Ernie Kent* vs. Alfred Robertson
(*Dana Altman is the winningest coach at both Creighton and Oregon but you can’t coach two teams and he won more games at Creighton. Ernie Kent is Oregon’s second winningest coach.)

REGION 2
1 Kentucky vs. 16 Stanford Adolph Rupp vs. Mike Montgomery
2 UCLA vs. 15 Maryland John Wooden vs. Gary Williams
3 Brigham Young vs. 14 Wichita State Stan Watts vs. Gregg Marshall
4 Arizona vs. 13 California Lute Olson vs. Nibs Price
5 Western Kentucky vs. 12 Michigan Ed Diddle vs. John Beilein
6 West Virginia vs. 11 Kansas State Gale Catlett vs. Jack Hartman
7 Princeton vs. 10 Georgetown Pete Carril vs. John Thompson Jr.
8 Alabama vs. 9 Iowa Wimp Sanderson vs. Tom Davis

REGION 3
1 North Carolina vs. 16 Wake Forest Dean Smith vs. Murray Greason
2 Temple vs. 15 New Mexico State John Chaney vs. Neil McCarthy*
3 Louisville vs. 14 Butler Denny Crum vs. Tony Hinkle
4 Cincinnati vs. 13 Pittsburgh Bob Huggins vs. Doc Carlson
5 Villanova vs. 12 Wisconsin Jay Wright vs. Bo Ryan
6 Ohio State vs. 11 Minnesota Thad Matta vs. Louis Cooke
7 North Carolina State vs. 10 Dayton Everett Case vs. Don Donoher
8 Oklahoma vs. 9 Tennessee Billy Tubbs vs. Ray Mears
(Lou Henson is the winningest coach at both New Mexico State and Illinois but he can’t coach two teams and won more games at Illinois. Neil McCarthy is the second winningest coach at New Mexico State.)

REGION 4
1 Duke vs. 16 Wyoming Mike Krzyzewski vs. Everett Shelton
2 Syracuse vs. 15 Ohio University Jim Boeheim vs. James Snyder
3 Indiana vs. 14 Washington State Bobby Knight vs. Jack Friel
4 Purdue vs. 13 Vanderbilt Gene Keady vs. Kevin Stallings
5 Texas vs. 12 Missouri Rick Barnes vs. Norm Stewart
6 Washington vs. 11 Marquette Hec Edmundson vs. Al McGuire
7 Michigan State vs. 10 Connecticut Tom Izzo vs. Jim Calhoun
8 Arkansas vs. 9 Oklahoma State Nolan Richardson vs. Hank Iba

ROUND OF 64
(The numbers are the total number of NCAA tournaments victories the schools have in their history. I’ve added this year’s results to the totals in the second link, above.)

Region 1 results
Kansas (115) beat Seton Hall (16)
Louisiana State (27-26) beat St. John’s (27-32)
Notre Dame (39) beat Creighton (14)
Utah (38) beat Utah State (6)
Illinois (42) beat St. Joseph’s (19)
Southern California (17) beat Pennsylvania (13)
Virginia (35) beat Oregon State (15)
Oregon (26) beat Bradley (11)

Matchups for the Round of 32:
1 Kansas vs. 8 Oregon Phog Allen vs. Ernie Kent
15 Louisiana State vs. 10 Virginia Dale Brown vs. Terry Holland
3 Notre Dame vs. 11 Southern California Mike Brey vs. Sam Barry
4 Utah vs 5 Illinois Vadal Peterson vs. Lou Henson

Region 2 results
Kentucky (131) beat Stanford (23)
UCLA (113) beat Maryland (43)
Wichita State (18) beat Brigham Young (15)
Arizona (58) beat California (20)
Michigan (66) beat Western Kentucky (19)
Kansas State (37) beat West Virginia (32)
Georgetown (47) beat Princeton (13)
Iowa (31) beat Alabama (23)

Matchups for the Round of 32:
1 Kentucky vs. 9 Iowa Adolph Rupp vs. Tom Davis
2 UCLA vs. 10 Georgetown John Wooden vs. John Thompson Jr.
14 Wichita State vs. 11 Kansas State Gregg Marshall vs. Jack Hartman
4 Arizona vs. 12 Michigan Lute Olson vs. John Beilein

Region 3 results
North Carolina (131) beat Wake Forest (28)
Temple (33) beat New Mexico State (11)
Louisville (76) beat Butler (24)
Cincinnati (46) beat Pittsburgh (24)
Villanova (71) beat Wisconsin (40)
Ohio State (58) beat Minnesota (14)
North Carolina State (37) beat Dayton (19)
Oklahoma (43) beat Tennessee (23)

Matchups for the Round of 32:
1 North Carolina vs. 8 Oklahoma Dean Smith vs. Billy Tubbs
2 Temple vs. 7 North Carolina State John Chaney vs. Everett Case
3 Louisville vs. 6 Ohio State Denny Crum vs. Thad Matta
4 Cincinnati vs. 5 Villanova Bob Huggins vs. Jay Wright

Region 4 results
Duke (118) beat Wyoming (9)
Syracuse (70) beat Ohio University (8)
Indiana (66) beat Washington State (6)
Purdue (44) beat Vanderbilt (10)
Texas (36) beat Missouri (22)
Marquette (41) beat Washington (19)
Michigan State (70) beat Connecticut (59)
Arkansas (48) beat Oklahoma State (39)

Round of 32 match-ups
1 Duke vs. 8 Arkansas Mike Krzyzewski vs. Nolan Richardson
2 Syracuse vs. 7 Michigan State Jim Boeheim vs. Tom Izzo
3 Indiana vs. 11 Marquette Bobby Knight vs. Al McGuire
4 Purdue vs. 5 Texas Gene Keady vs. Rick Barnes

ROUND OF 32

Region 1 results
Kansas (115) beat Oregon (26)
Virginia (35) beat Louisiana State (27)
Notre Dame (39) beat Southern California (17)
Illinois (42) beat Utah (38)

Matchups for the Sweet 16:
1 Kansas vs. 5 Illinois Phog Allen vs. Lou Henson
3 Notre Dame vs. 10 Virginia Mike Brey vs. Terry Holland

Region 2 results
Kentucky (131) beat Iowa (31)
UCLA (113) beat Georgetown (47)
Kansas State (37) beat Wichita State (18)
Michigan (66) beat Arizona (58)

Matchups for the Sweet 16:
1 Kentucky vs 12 Michigan Adolph Rupp vs. John Beilein
2 UCLA vs. 11 Kansas State John Wooden vs. Jack Hartman

Region 3 results
North Carolina (131) beat Oklahoma (43)
North Carolina State (37) beat Temple (33)
Louisville (76) beat Ohio State (58)
Villanova (71) beat Cincinnati (46)

Matchups for the Round of 32:
1 North Carolina vs. 5 Villanova Dean Smith vs. Jay Wright
7 North Carolina State vs. 3 Louisville Everett Case vs. Denny Crum

Region 4 results
Duke (118) beat Arkansas (48)
Michigan State (70-34) beat Syracuse (70-41) – which means we lost in OT, tough draw.
Indiana (66) beat Marquette (41)
Purdue (44) beat Texas (36)

Matchups for the Round of 32:
1 Duke vs. 4 Purdue Mike Krzyzewski vs. Gene Keady
7 Michigan State vs. 3 Indiana Tom Izzo vs. Bobby Knight


SWEET 16

Region 1 results
Kansas (115) beat Illinois (42)
Notre Dame (39) beat Virginia (35)

Elite 8 match-up
1 Kansas vs. 3 Notre Dame Phog Allen vs. Mike Brey

Region 2 results
Kentucky (131) beat Michigan (66)
UCLA (113) beat Kansas State (37)

Elite 8 match-up
1 Kentucky vs 2 UCLA Adolph Rupp vs. John Wooden

Region 3 results
North Carolina (131) beat Villanova (71)
Louisville (76) beat North Carolina State (37)

Elite 8 match-up
1 North Carolina vs. 3 Louisville Dean Smith vs. Denny Crum

Region 4 results
Duke (118) beat Purdue (44)
Michigan State (70) vs. Indiana (66)

Elite 8 match-up
1 Duke vs. 7 Michigan State Mike Krzyzewski vs. Tom Izzo


ELITE 8

Region 1: Kansas (115) beat Notre Dame (39) Phog Allen over Mike Brey
Region 2: Kentucky (131) beat UCLA (113) Adolph Rupp over John Wooden
Region 3: North Carolina (131) beat Louisville (76) Dean Smith over Denny Crum
Region 4: Duke (118) beat Michigan State (70) Mike Krzyzewski over Tom Izzo

FINAL FOUR

Semi-final: Kentucky (131) beat Kansas (115) Adolph Rupp over Phog Allen
Semi-final: North Carolina (131) beat Duke (118) Dean Smith over Mike Krzyzewski

National Championship game:
North Carolina (131-49) beat Kentucky (131-54) in overtime Dean Smith over Adolph Rupp

What does it prove? Nothing. But it’s fun to visualize it.

I ran the same thing, but SU won.
SU over MSU because the last time we played them in the tourney, we won, so it counts more.
Then SU beats Indiana on every level.
SU over Duke because I had to disqualify Duke for ncaa violations (I did not accept their multiple internal investigations.)
SU over UNC because massive scale academic fraud is in my wheelhouse.
SU over UK in the finals because Adolph Rupp's wins don't count due to his being a flag-waving racist.
And also, why run a fictitious tournament that SU doesn't win?

 

[SWC75]

I understand that, but this is not a "true" surprise in a sense that once the winning criteria is determined, the outcome is determined and completely repeatable each and every time.

If you had used another criteria say the sum of the five starters jersey numbers with the winner going to a higher sum, it may sound random but it's still repeatable.

A true randomness can be built in by say use the all time win, or the regular season win of that year (which already played a role in the seeding) or all time head to head between the two schools (if any), but assign a percentage point of that number to a real coin toss. In that every time you go through the process, it may yield different results. Just as I believe if we redo the most recent tournament with the same team all over again, the result could be completely different.

Of course, I am just arguing for the sake of arguing, so don't mind me lol.

the actual tournament is unpredictable but not random. My effort is based on actual results. The idea is that the school's overall historical wins is the 'regular season' and the schools wins in the NCAA tournament is how well they do in the tournament.

But feel free to redo it anyway you like.

I ran the same thing, but SU won.
SU over MSU because the last time we played them in the tourney, we won, so it counts more.
Then SU beats Indiana on every level.
SU over Duke because I had to disqualify Duke for ncaa violations (I did not accept their multiple internal investigations.)
SU over UNC because massive scale academic fraud is in my wheelhouse.
SU over UK in the finals because Adolph Rupp's wins don't count due to his being a flag-waving racist.
And also, why run a fictitious tournament that SU doesn't win?

If it was not possible to lose, winning isn't any fun. When I started this, I did not know how it would come out. That made it enjoyable to see how it did come out.

Another was to redo it would be to see each schools all-time NCAA record against each other. That might be fun but I'm on to other things.

 

[HoustonCuse]

A way to add the randomness effect but not make it based on nothing would be to simply run a random number generator for each team, set it to pick a number between 0 and the number of games above .500 the team is in NCAA play. Then add this result to each team’s total wins. It adds randomness but also retains credit for better performance within the randomness which does make sense.

So if a team was sub .500 all time in NCAA play they get 0.

Syracuse is 29 games above .500 so you run a RNG with a max of 29 and take that result plus 70. Run a new RNG for each matchup.

And so on.

 

[SWC75]

A way to add the randomness effect but not make it based on nothing would be to simply run a random number generator for each team, set it to pick a number between 0 and the number of games above .500 the team is in NCAA play. Then add this result to each team’s total wins. It adds randomness but also retains credit for better performance within the randomness which does make sense.

So if a team was sub .500 all time in NCAA play they get 0.

Syracuse is 29 games above .500 so you run a RNG with a max of 29 and take that result plus 70. Run a new RNG for each matchup.

And so on.

Be my guest.