The Undefeated 2019 - Week 7 | Syracusefan.com

The Undefeated 2019 - Week 7

SWC75

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Every October I start charting the future games and possible fates of three groups of teams:
- The undefeated power conference teams, (and when that gets to be less than 4 teams, the one-loss teams), to anticipate who might be in the playoff.
- The top FBS non-power conference teams, the best two of which will play in the fictional “Pesci Bowl” to determine the best of such teams. I named it after the actor Joe Pesci, who plays vertically challenged but feisty characters. These teams never get selected for the playoff but still think they’re pretty good. (I’ll stick with the undefeated teams until there are less than 2 of them.)
- The worst FBS teams in the country, the two worst of which will play in the mythical “Ty-D-Bol Bowl”, named after a toilet cleaning product, to determine who the worst major college team in the country is. (I’ll stick with winless teams until there are less than two of them.)

Here are the current lists:

Potential Playoff teams

ALABAMA 6-0 (306-102) Ranked: #1 in the writer’s poll/#1 in the coaches’ poll/ Sagarin: #2
Sat 10/19 Tennessee 2-4 (138-154) Sagarin: #76
Sat 10/26 Arkansas 2-4 (163-164) Sagarin: #88
BYE
Sat 11/9 LOUISIANA STATE 6-0 (315-127) Ranked: #2/#3/ Sagarin: #6
Sat 11/16 at Mississippi State 3-3 (161-163) Sagarin: #37
Sat 11.23 Western Carolina 1-5 (121-226) FCS Sagarin: #238
Sat 11/30 at Auburn 5-1 (203-110) Ranked #11/#11 Sagarin: #9
Comments: The Tide has clear sailing until the LSU game, which they have at home. Then Auburn will, as always, present a serious challenge in the finale. Then comes the SEC title game, which will probably be against the Georgia-Florida winner, although Missouri actually leads the division at the moment.

BAYLOR 6-0 (227-107) Ranked: #18/#18/ Sagarin: #24
Sat 10/19 at Oklahoma State 4-2 (239-165) Sagarin: #23
BYE
Thu 10/31 West Virginia 3-3 (145-182) Sagarin: #53
Sat 11/9 at Texas Christian 3-2 (186-124) Sagarin: #30
Sat 11/16 OKLAHOMA 6-0 (301-122) Ranked: #5/#5/ Sagarin: #4
Sat 11/23 Texas 4-2 (236-167) Ranked: #15/#15/ Sagarin: #14
Sat 11/30 at Kansas 2-4 (137-178) Sagarin: #92
Comments: Are the Bears back? Probably not. Their next five games are all against teams with winning records and they are likely going to get dinged a couple times.

CLEMSON 6-0 (235-74) Ranked: #3/#2/ Sagarin: #5
Sat 10/19 at Louisville 4-2 (224-189) Sagarin: #62
Sat 10/26 Boston College 3-3 (197-173) Sagarin: #83
Sat 11/2 Wofford 3-2 (162-112) FCS Sagarin: #141
Sat 11/9 at North Carolina State 4-2 (165-114) Sagarin: #61
Sat 11/16 WAKE FOREST 5-1 (238-167) / Sagarin: #46
BYE
Sat 11/30 at South Carolina 3-3 (173-139) Sagarin: #28
Comments: The Tigers keep winning but their ranking has dipped. Still, they are the only really good team in the conference and have Wake at home. They are still a good bet to run the table. Nobody on their remaining schedule, including anybody they might face in the ACC title game, is currently in the Top 25. I’ve heard it suggested that a 13-0 Clemson teams wouldn’t make the playoff because of strength of schedule. That’s hard to believe.

LOUISIANA STATE 6-0 (315-127) Ranked: #2/#3/ Sagarin: #6
Sat 10/19 at Mississippi State 3-3 (161-163) Sagarin: #37
Sat 10/26 Auburn 5-1 (203-110) Ranked #11/#11/ Sagarin: #9
BYE
Sat 11/9 at ALABAMA 6-0 (306-102) Ranked: #1/#1/ Sagarin: #2
Sat 11/16 at Mississippi 3-4 (190-192) Sagarin: #54
Sat 11/23 Arkansas 2-4 (163-164) Sagarin: #88
Sat 11/30 Texas A&M 3-3 (192-136) Sagarin: #21
Comments: the SEC eats its own. These Tigers ruined Florida’s perfect record and in two weeks they get Auburn and then Alabama. If they get past that it could be smooth sailing until the conference title game against the Florida-Georgia winner. If the Tigers make the playoff, they will have earned it.

MINNESOTA 6-0 (213-138) Ranked #20/#20/ Sagarin: #32
Sat 10/19 at Rutgers 1-5 (71-210) Sagarin: #142
Sat 10/26 Maryland 3-3 (221-146) Sagarin: #65
BYE
Sat 11/9 PENN STATE 6-0 (252-49) Ranked: #7/#7 / Sagarin: #7
Sat 11/16 at Iowa 4-2 (149-61) Ranked #23/#22/ Sagarin: #19
Sat 11/23 at Northwestern 1-4 (72-99) Sagarin: #63
Sat 11/30 WISCONSIN 6-0 (255-29) Ranked: #6/#6/ Sagarin: #3
Comments: Despite an impressive win over unimpressive Nebraska, this appears to be the weakest undefeated team but that status could last for a while until Penn State comes to town. Then they get Iowa and finish with Wisconsin. I think that will be too much for them.

OHIO STATE 6-0 (296-53) Ranked: #4/#4/ Sagarin: #1
Fri 10/18 at Northwestern 1-4 (72-99) Sagarin: #63
Sat 10/26 WISCONSIN 6-0 (255-29) Ranked: #6/#6/ Sagarin: #3
BYE
Sat 11/9 Maryland 3-3 (221-146) Sagarin: #65
Sat 11/16 at Rutgers 1-5 (71-210) Sagarin: #142
Sat 11/23 PENN STATE 6-0 (252-49) Ranked: #7/#7/ Sagarin: #7
Sat 11/30 at Michigan 5-1 (182-105) Ranked #16/#16/ Sagarin: #13
Comments: The Buckeyes might just be the best team in the country. They have big confrontations against Wisconsin and Penn State, both of whom also look very strong, but both those games are in Columbus. They have to go to Michigan but will Jim Harbaugh ever beat this team? Then they will face the Minnesota-Wisconsin winner in the Big Ten title game. They appear to be up to the task.

OKLAHOMA 6-0 (301-122) Ranked: #5/#5/ Sagarin: #4
Thu 10/19 West Virginia 3-3 (145-182) Sagarin: #53
Sat 10/26 at Kansas State 3-2 (157-95) Sagarin: #36
BYE
Sat 11/9 Iowa State 4-2 (226-125) Sagarin: #17
Sat 11/16 at BAYLOR 6-0 (227-107) Ranked: #18/#18/ Sagarin: #24
Sat 11/23 Texas Christian 3-2 (186-124) Sagarin: #30
Sat 11/30 at Oklahoma State 4-2 (239-165) Sagarin: #23
Comments: The Sooners are a scoring machine, (as usual). The question for them and any Big 12 team is always: do they have a championship defense? They looked like they did against Texas. Every team they have left to play has a winning record except West Virginia, their next opponent who is 3-3. They have to go to Baylor. But they will surely be favored in every game. And there is no conference title game.

PENN STATE 6-0 (252-49) Ranked: #7/#7/ Sagarin: #7
Sat 10/19 Michigan 5-1 (182-105) Ranked #16/#16/ Sagarin: #13
Sat 10/26 at Michigan State 4-3 (167-147) Sagarin: #20
BYE
Sat 11/9 at MINNESOTA 6-0 (213-138) Ranked #20/#20/ Sagarin: #32
Sat 11/16 Indiana 4-2 (200-118)/ Sagarin: #52
Sat 11/23 at OHIO STATE 6-0 (296-53) Ranked: #4/#4/ Sagarin: #1
Sat 11/30 Rutgers 1-5 (71-210) Sagarin: #142
Comments: It’s disgusting but Penn State looks like Penn State again. They are going to have to be to survive a gauntlet of the two Michigan schools, what still might be an undefeated Minnesota team and the Buckeyes two weeks later. But they might do it.

WISCONSIN 6-0 (255-29) Ranked: #6/#6/ Sagarin: #3
Sat 10/19 at Illinois 2-4 (184-184) Sagarin: #109
Sat 10/26 at OHIO STATE 6-0 (296-53) Ranked: #4/#4/ Sagarin: #1
BYE
Sat 11/9 Iowa 4-2 (149-61) Ranked #23/#22/ Sagarin: #19
Sat 11/16 at Nebraska 4-3 (179-193) Sagarin: #56
Sat 11/23 Purdue 2-4 (164-179) Sagarin: #68
Sat 11/30 at MINNESOTA 6-0 (213-138) Ranked #20/#20/ Sagarin: #32
Comments: The Badgers dominate the Big Ten West but often come up short against the big powers of the East. Their dominance of the Michigan teams (35-14 over the Wolverines and 38-0 over the Spartans), indicates that this may be the best Wisconsin team yet but can they beat the Buckeyes in Columbus or in the conference title game? I’ll believe it when I see it.


Potential Pesci Bowl Teams

APPALACHIAN STATE 5-0 (205-123) #24/#24/ Sagarin: #33
Sat 10/19 (NE) Louisiana-Monroe 3-3 (182-209) Sagarin: #111
Sat 10/26 at South Alabama 1-5 (101-176) Sagarin: #172
Thu 10/31 Georgia Southern 2-3 (105-162) Sagarin: #117
Sat 11/9 at South Carolina 3-3 (173-139) Sagarin: #28
Sat 11/16 at Georgia State 4-2 (213-225) Sagarin: #93
Sat 11/23 (SW) Texas State 2-3 (113-172) Sagarin: #135
Fri 11/29 at Troy 2-3 (173-160) Sagarin: #97
Comments: The Mountaineers only problem would seem to be the trip to South Carolina. But they aren’t scared of that.

BOISE STATE 6-0 (222-117) Ranked: #14/#13/ Sagarin: #22
Sat 10/19 at Brigham Young 2-4 (134-183) Sagarin: #79
BYE
Sat 11/2 at San Jose State 3-3 (176-179) Sagarin: #130
Sat 11/9 Wyoming 4-2 (177-128) Sagarin: #64
Sat 11/16 New Mexico 2-4 (160-233) Sagarin: #146
Sat 11/23 at Utah State 3-2 (160-128) Sagarin: #48
Fri 11/29 at Colorado State 2-5 (207-240) Sagarin: #119
Comments: The Broncos have already won at Florida State, overcoming a 13-31 start to do so, so nothing here will scare them, either.

SOUTHERN METHODIST 6-0 (265-170) Ranked: #21/#22 / Sagarin: #40
Sat 10/19 Temple 5-1 (179-114) UR/#25 Sagarin: #74
Thu 10/24 at Houston 2-4 (192-198) Sagarin: #66
Sat 11/2 at MEMPHIS 5-1 (227-126) Sagarin: #34
Sat 11/9 East Carolina 3-3 (124-140) Sagarin: #132
BYE
Sat 11/23 at Navy 4-1 (189-94) Sagarin: #50
Sat 11/30 Tulane 5-1 (235-115) Sagarin: #47
Comments: it’s nice to see the Mustangs playing well after all they’ve been through over the years. But four of their remaining oppoents have just one loss and they play two of them on the road.

Potential Ty-D-Bol Teams

AKRON 0-6 (86-216) Sagarin: #194
Sat 10/19 Buffalo 2-4 (146-167) Sagarin: #108
Sat 10/26 at Northern Illinois 2-4 (126-176) Sagarin: #105
Sat 11/2 at Bowling Green 2-4 (93-211) Sagarin: #147
Tue 11/12 Eastern Michigan 3-3 (154-192) Sagarin: #118
Wed 11/20 at Miami University 2-4 (130-224) Sagarin: #95
Tue 11/26 Ohio University 2-4 (164-177) Sagarin: #99
Comments: They have 6 games left and 5 of those teams have losing records so there will be plenty of opportunities for Akron to get off the snide. Still, the Ty-D-Bol was made for a team named the “Zips”.

NEW MEXICO STATE 0-7 (137-298) Sagarin: #161
BYE
Sat 10/26 at Georgia Southern 2-3 (105-162) Sagarin: #117
BYE
Sat 11/9 at Mississippi 3-4 (190-192) Sagarin: #54
Sat 11/16 Incarnate Word 4-2 (172-205) FCS Sagarin: #186
Sat 11/23 Texas-El Paso 1-4 (89-166) Sagarin: #187
Sat 11/30 at Liberty 4-2 (148-126) Sagarin: #122
Comments: the Aggies have made the “Little Dance” four times so they are old hands at this. Their schedule does not look too intimidating but do not under-estimate this school’s ability to lose football games.

RICE 0-6 (94-182) Sagarin: #143
Sat 10/19 at Texas-San Antonio 2-4 (105-195) Sagarin: #158
Sat 10/26 Southern Mississippi 4-2 (183-179) Sagarin: #86
Sat 11/2 Marshall 3-3 (154-155) Sagarin: #98
BYE
Sat 11/16 at Middle Tennessee State 2-4 (124-196) Sagarin: #113
Sat 11/23 North Texas State 2-4 (192-197) Sagarin: #96
Sat 11/30 at Texas-El Paso 1-4 (89-166) Sagarin: #187
Comments: The Rice Owls have splashed around the Ty-D-Bol three times and this could be #4. They aren’t going to play anybody scary but they don’t need to to lose.
 

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