SWC75
Bored Historian
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Every October I start charting the future games and possible fates of three groups of teams:
- The undefeated power conference teams, (and when that gets to be less than 4 teams, the one-loss teams), to anticipate who might be in the playoff.
- The top FBS non-power conference teams, the best two of which will play in the fictional “Pesci Bowl” to determine the best of such teams. I named it after the actor Joe Pesci, who plays vertically challenged but feisty characters. These teams never get selected for the playoff but still think they’re pretty good. (I’ll stick with the undefeated teams until there are less than 2 of them.)
- The worst FBS teams in the country, the two worst of which will play in the mythical “Ty-D-Bowl Bowl”, named after a toilet cleaning product, to determine who the worst major college team in the country is. (I’ll stick with winless teams until there are less than two of them.)
Each entry is the team name, with won lost record, their points for and against, their highest ranking among the writers, coaches until the playoff committee takes over, (which means more than one team could have the same ranking – from different sources), then their ‘ART’, the points they got playing ranked teams and then their ‘RVU’, as a ranked team against an unranked team from my weekly “Against Ranked Teams” post. Games against teams on any of these three lists are in capitals. If a team is unranked or has not played a ranked team or played as one against an unranked team, those fields are not shown.
Here are the current lists:
(For this week, I needed to add the 1 loss teams into the playoff mix and the 1 win teams in the Ty-D-Bol group. I didn’t yet need 1 loss teams for the Pesci Bowl but I decided to list them anyway as they may be needed there.)
The Playoff
GEORGIA 9-0 (346-59) ranked #1 ART: +149 RVU: +80
11/13 at Tennessee 5-4 (344-254) ART: +4
11/20 Charleston Southern (FCS) 3-5 (206-209)
11/27 at Georgia Tech 3-6 (258-261) ART: +42
Comments: It’s hard to see how the Bulldogs will lose until the SEC title game, where Alabama looms. But this could be Georgia’s year. Their only title was in 1980, 41 years ago.
OKLAHOMA 9-0 (388-218) ranked #8 ART: +12 RVU: -17
11/13 at Baylor 7-2 (327-185) ranked #13 ART: +32 RVU: -19
11/20 Iowa State 6-3 (287-164) ART: +27 RVU: +27 RVU: -16
11/27 OKLAHOMA STATE 8-1 (259-147) ranked #10 ART: +36 RVU: +47
Comments: The Sooners have been in low gear but finding ways to win, (their record includes a 76-0 win over Western Carolina). All three games are major challenges requiring their ‘A’ game. The top two teams in the conference meet for the championship, so ‘bedlam’ may be a double-header this year.
ALABAMA 8-1 (387-179) ranked #2 ART: +95 RVU: +17
11/13 NEW MEXICO STATE 1-8 (208-343)
11/20 Arkansas 6-3 (293-216) ranked #25 +66 RVU: +5
11/27 at Auburn 6-3 (282-178) ranked #17 +55 RVU: +69
Comments: Those last two teams could be feisty but The Tide will be favored to be taking on Georgia in the SEC title game.
MICHIGAN 8-1 (326-144) ranked #6 ART: +14 RVU: +56
11/13 at Penn State 6-3 (243-150) 4 ART: +66 RVU: -4
11/20 at Maryland 5-4 (248-274) ART: -46
11/27 OHIO STATE 8-1 (404-171) ranked #4 ART: +22 RVU: +96
Comments: If they can beat the Nittany Lions, the Terps and the Buckeyes, they are a match for anyone. But until they do it, I’ll still wonder about them.
MICHIGAN STATE 8-1 (306-204) ranked #7 ART: +48 RVU: -49
11/13 Maryland 5-3 (234-243) ART: -46
11/20 at OHIO STATE 8-1 (404-171) ranked #4 ART: +22 RVU: +96
11/27 Penn State 6-3 (243-150) 4 ART: +66 RVU: -4
Comments: If they can beat the Terps, the Nittany Lions and the Buckeyes, they are a match for anyone. But until they do it, I’ll still wonder about them. And watch out for Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game.
NOTRE DAME 8-1 (295-202) ranked #9 ART: +44 RVU:-29
11/13 at Virginia 6-3 (350-277) ART -31
11/20 Georgia Tech 3-6 (258-261) ART: +42
11/27 at Stanford 3-6 (206-268) ART: +51
Comment: If they survive the trip to Charlottesville, this is a tiptoe through the tulips. But can they rise from 7th to the top 4?
OKLAHOMA STATE 8-1 (259-147) ranked #10 ART: +36 RVU: +47
11/13 Texas Christian 4-5 (282-280) ART: +17
11/20 at Texas Tech 5-4 (295-297) ART: -9
11/27 at OKLAHOMA 9-0 (388-218) ranked #8 ART: +12 RVU: -17
Comments: The Texas teams could spoil the party but it will be hard to keep the Bedlam winner out of the playoff. The Big 12 does have a championship game between the two best teams, so it could be a double-header.
OREGON 8-1 (315-202) ranked #3 ART: +30 RVU: -51
11/13 Washington State 5-4 (233-222)
11/20 at Utah 6-3 (319-209) ART: +22 RVU: +7
11/27 Oregon State 5-4 (305-249)
Comment: The Ducks are quacking up on people and they are already #5 with no one comparable on their schedules. They could be in the cat-ducks’ seat, watching the other teams knock each other off.
WAKE FOREST 8-1 (402-249) ranked #12 RVU: +6
11/13 North Carolina State 7-2 (280-144) ranked #16 ART: +23 RVU: +24
11/20 at Clemson 6-3 (200-146) ART: +7 RVU: -6
11/27 at Boston College 5-4 (222-169) ART: -27
Comments: Wake could go from 8-0 to 8-4 but it was a nice run while it lasted.
The Pesci Bowl
CINCINNATI 9-0 (347-134) ranked #5 ART: +28 RVU: +34
11/12 at South Florida 2-7 (223-309) ART: -6
11/20 Southern Methodist 7-2 (361-231) RVU: +15
11/26 East Carolina 5-4 (275-216)
Comments: Everybody’s down on the Bearcats right now. Most people didn’t think much about them until they realized that they were ranked in the top 4 in the polls and could be the first G-5 team to make the p-layoff. Then the committee rated them #6 and it became a national controversy followed by the Tulsa game, in which they were hardly impressive and which had a low-comedy ending. It should obscure what they’ve accomplished the last two years: 18 wins plus a last second loss to Georgia in the Peach Bowl, a win over Indiana and a road win at Notre Dame – but it will. They seem to be running on empty at a critical time. They need to go 13-0, including wins over SMU and probably Houston in the conference title game to have any shot at the playoff and they still might not get it and that would be too bad. But there’s always the Pesci Bowl…
TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO 9-0 (359-173) ranked #23 RVU: +27
11/13 SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 1-8 (123-272) ART: -24
11/20 Alabama-Birmingham 6-3 (222-207) ART: -25
11/27 at North Texas State 3-6 (229-283)
Comments: Nobody knows about this team and that’s not likely to change. But if UAB is the biggest threat to their going undefeated, they’re in pretty good shape.
COASTAL CAROLINA 8-1 (383-156) RVU: +140
11/13 Georgia State 4-5 (208-262) ART: -47
11/20 Texas State 3-5 (202-301)
11/26 South Alabama 5-4 (257-199)
Comment: Remember these guys? They were 11-0 before Liberty beat them by a field goal in the bowl game. This year they feasted on those unranked teams – and that’s all they’ve played. App State beat them by another field goal but the Chanticleers seem to be a lock for 11-1.
HOUSTON 8-1 (3520-200) ART: +14
11/13 at Temple 3-6 (164-331) ART: -28
11/19 Memphis 5-4 (286-262)
11/27 at CONNECTICUT 1-8 (146-324)
Comment: The Cougars should dance to 11-1, creating a big confrontation with the Cincinnati Bearcats.
LOUISIANA 8-1 (277-171) ART -15
11/13 at Troy 5-4 (236-196) ART -5
11/20 at Liberty 7-3 (351-187) ART -3
11/27 Louisiana-Monroe 4-5 (197-327) ART -43
Comment: Troy could be a problem and the trip to Liberty will be very difficult. Then comes Coastal Carolina or App State.
SAN DIEGO STATE 8-1 (254-150) RVU: +19
11/13 Nevada-Reno 7-2 (328-219)
11/19 at NEVADA-LAS VEGAS 1-8 (188-305) ART: -61
11/26 Boise State 5-4 (274-188) ART: +54
Comment: Reno will be a big hurdle and so will Boise. UNLV will not.
The Ty-D Bowl
ARKANSAS STATE 1-8 (234-387) ART -21
11/13 at Louisiana-Monroe 4-5 (197-327) ART -43
11/20 at Georgia State 4-5 (208-262) ART -47
11/27 Texas State 3-6 (202-301)
Comment: Maybe they can beat Texas State.
ARIZONA 1-8 (144-257) ART: +1
11/13 Utah 6-3 (319-209) ART: +22 RVU: +7
11/19 at Washington State 5-4 (233-222)
11/27 at Arizona State 6-3 (273-182) ART: +18 RVU: +17
Comments: The finally found a team they could beat, (Cal), but that should be it for them.
CONNECTICUT 1-8 (146-324)
11/13 at Clemson 6-3 (200-146) ART +7 RVU -6
11/20 at Central Florida 6-3 (292-217) ART -11
11/27 HOUSTON 8-1 (352-200) ART +14
Comments: The Huskies seem headed toward oblivion. They even lost to UMASS in what ESPN called “The Pillow Fight of the Century”.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 1-8 (210-340)
11/13 at Middle Tennessee State 4-5 (263-259) ART -14
11/20 North Texas State 3-6 (229-283)
11/27 at SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 1-8 (123-272) ART -24
Comments: The Panther’s schedule holds some real possibilities for getting off of this list.
KANSAS 1-8 (136-385) ART -38
11/13 at Texas 4-5 (322-268) ART +45
11/20 at Texas Christian 4-5 (282-280) ART +178
11/27 West Virginia 4-5 (240-207) ART +41
Comments: Can a 1-8 team beat a 4-5 team if they get three chances to do it?
MASSACHUSETTS 1-8 (142-405) ART -41
11/13 Maine (FCS) 4-5 (207-267)
11/20 at Army 5-3 (263-208) ART -4
11/27 at NEW MEXICO STATE 1-8 (208-343)
The Minutemen must envy their old pals in Maine, getting to play FCS schedules. Bring back the Yankee Conference!
NEVADA-LAS VEGAS 1-8 (188-305) ART: -61
11/13 Hawaii 4-6 (273-322) ART: +6
11/19 at SAN DIEGO STATE 8-1 (254-150) ranked #22 RVU: +19
11/26 Air Force 6-3 (248-155) ART -2
Comments: The Vegas odds don’t look good in any of these games.
NEW MEXICO STATE 1-8 (208-343)
11/13 at ALABAMA 8-1 (387-179) ranked #2 ART +95 RVU: +17
11/20 at Kentucky 6-3 (265-222) ART +31 RVU: -28
11/27 MASSACHUSETTS 1-8 (142-405) ART -41
Comments: Alabama? Alabama??? The UMASS game may be an elimination game for the Ty-D-Bol.
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 1-8 (123-272) ART -24
11/13 at TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO 9-0 (359-173) ranked #23 RVU: +27
11/19 at Louisiana Tech 2-7 (244-306) ART -31
11/27 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 1-8 (210-340)
Comments: Those last two games will look good after the next one.
TULANE 1-8 (245-341) ART -36
11/13 Tulsa 3-6 (215-275) ART +8
11/20 South Florida 2-7 (223-309) ART -6
11/27 at Memphis 5-4 (286-262)
Comments: Remember when the Green Wave opened against Oklahoma and gave them a 35-40 tussle? Tulane seemed to have their best team in years. Not so fast, my friends, although they have competed better than the other 1-8 teams. Their -96 differential is the best of them and they also played well against Cincinnati: two top 5 teams. But they haven’t learned how to win.
- The undefeated power conference teams, (and when that gets to be less than 4 teams, the one-loss teams), to anticipate who might be in the playoff.
- The top FBS non-power conference teams, the best two of which will play in the fictional “Pesci Bowl” to determine the best of such teams. I named it after the actor Joe Pesci, who plays vertically challenged but feisty characters. These teams never get selected for the playoff but still think they’re pretty good. (I’ll stick with the undefeated teams until there are less than 2 of them.)
- The worst FBS teams in the country, the two worst of which will play in the mythical “Ty-D-Bowl Bowl”, named after a toilet cleaning product, to determine who the worst major college team in the country is. (I’ll stick with winless teams until there are less than two of them.)
Each entry is the team name, with won lost record, their points for and against, their highest ranking among the writers, coaches until the playoff committee takes over, (which means more than one team could have the same ranking – from different sources), then their ‘ART’, the points they got playing ranked teams and then their ‘RVU’, as a ranked team against an unranked team from my weekly “Against Ranked Teams” post. Games against teams on any of these three lists are in capitals. If a team is unranked or has not played a ranked team or played as one against an unranked team, those fields are not shown.
Here are the current lists:
(For this week, I needed to add the 1 loss teams into the playoff mix and the 1 win teams in the Ty-D-Bol group. I didn’t yet need 1 loss teams for the Pesci Bowl but I decided to list them anyway as they may be needed there.)
The Playoff
GEORGIA 9-0 (346-59) ranked #1 ART: +149 RVU: +80
11/13 at Tennessee 5-4 (344-254) ART: +4
11/20 Charleston Southern (FCS) 3-5 (206-209)
11/27 at Georgia Tech 3-6 (258-261) ART: +42
Comments: It’s hard to see how the Bulldogs will lose until the SEC title game, where Alabama looms. But this could be Georgia’s year. Their only title was in 1980, 41 years ago.
OKLAHOMA 9-0 (388-218) ranked #8 ART: +12 RVU: -17
11/13 at Baylor 7-2 (327-185) ranked #13 ART: +32 RVU: -19
11/20 Iowa State 6-3 (287-164) ART: +27 RVU: +27 RVU: -16
11/27 OKLAHOMA STATE 8-1 (259-147) ranked #10 ART: +36 RVU: +47
Comments: The Sooners have been in low gear but finding ways to win, (their record includes a 76-0 win over Western Carolina). All three games are major challenges requiring their ‘A’ game. The top two teams in the conference meet for the championship, so ‘bedlam’ may be a double-header this year.
ALABAMA 8-1 (387-179) ranked #2 ART: +95 RVU: +17
11/13 NEW MEXICO STATE 1-8 (208-343)
11/20 Arkansas 6-3 (293-216) ranked #25 +66 RVU: +5
11/27 at Auburn 6-3 (282-178) ranked #17 +55 RVU: +69
Comments: Those last two teams could be feisty but The Tide will be favored to be taking on Georgia in the SEC title game.
MICHIGAN 8-1 (326-144) ranked #6 ART: +14 RVU: +56
11/13 at Penn State 6-3 (243-150) 4 ART: +66 RVU: -4
11/20 at Maryland 5-4 (248-274) ART: -46
11/27 OHIO STATE 8-1 (404-171) ranked #4 ART: +22 RVU: +96
Comments: If they can beat the Nittany Lions, the Terps and the Buckeyes, they are a match for anyone. But until they do it, I’ll still wonder about them.
MICHIGAN STATE 8-1 (306-204) ranked #7 ART: +48 RVU: -49
11/13 Maryland 5-3 (234-243) ART: -46
11/20 at OHIO STATE 8-1 (404-171) ranked #4 ART: +22 RVU: +96
11/27 Penn State 6-3 (243-150) 4 ART: +66 RVU: -4
Comments: If they can beat the Terps, the Nittany Lions and the Buckeyes, they are a match for anyone. But until they do it, I’ll still wonder about them. And watch out for Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game.
NOTRE DAME 8-1 (295-202) ranked #9 ART: +44 RVU:-29
11/13 at Virginia 6-3 (350-277) ART -31
11/20 Georgia Tech 3-6 (258-261) ART: +42
11/27 at Stanford 3-6 (206-268) ART: +51
Comment: If they survive the trip to Charlottesville, this is a tiptoe through the tulips. But can they rise from 7th to the top 4?
OKLAHOMA STATE 8-1 (259-147) ranked #10 ART: +36 RVU: +47
11/13 Texas Christian 4-5 (282-280) ART: +17
11/20 at Texas Tech 5-4 (295-297) ART: -9
11/27 at OKLAHOMA 9-0 (388-218) ranked #8 ART: +12 RVU: -17
Comments: The Texas teams could spoil the party but it will be hard to keep the Bedlam winner out of the playoff. The Big 12 does have a championship game between the two best teams, so it could be a double-header.
OREGON 8-1 (315-202) ranked #3 ART: +30 RVU: -51
11/13 Washington State 5-4 (233-222)
11/20 at Utah 6-3 (319-209) ART: +22 RVU: +7
11/27 Oregon State 5-4 (305-249)
Comment: The Ducks are quacking up on people and they are already #5 with no one comparable on their schedules. They could be in the cat-ducks’ seat, watching the other teams knock each other off.
WAKE FOREST 8-1 (402-249) ranked #12 RVU: +6
11/13 North Carolina State 7-2 (280-144) ranked #16 ART: +23 RVU: +24
11/20 at Clemson 6-3 (200-146) ART: +7 RVU: -6
11/27 at Boston College 5-4 (222-169) ART: -27
Comments: Wake could go from 8-0 to 8-4 but it was a nice run while it lasted.
The Pesci Bowl
CINCINNATI 9-0 (347-134) ranked #5 ART: +28 RVU: +34
11/12 at South Florida 2-7 (223-309) ART: -6
11/20 Southern Methodist 7-2 (361-231) RVU: +15
11/26 East Carolina 5-4 (275-216)
Comments: Everybody’s down on the Bearcats right now. Most people didn’t think much about them until they realized that they were ranked in the top 4 in the polls and could be the first G-5 team to make the p-layoff. Then the committee rated them #6 and it became a national controversy followed by the Tulsa game, in which they were hardly impressive and which had a low-comedy ending. It should obscure what they’ve accomplished the last two years: 18 wins plus a last second loss to Georgia in the Peach Bowl, a win over Indiana and a road win at Notre Dame – but it will. They seem to be running on empty at a critical time. They need to go 13-0, including wins over SMU and probably Houston in the conference title game to have any shot at the playoff and they still might not get it and that would be too bad. But there’s always the Pesci Bowl…
TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO 9-0 (359-173) ranked #23 RVU: +27
11/13 SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 1-8 (123-272) ART: -24
11/20 Alabama-Birmingham 6-3 (222-207) ART: -25
11/27 at North Texas State 3-6 (229-283)
Comments: Nobody knows about this team and that’s not likely to change. But if UAB is the biggest threat to their going undefeated, they’re in pretty good shape.
COASTAL CAROLINA 8-1 (383-156) RVU: +140
11/13 Georgia State 4-5 (208-262) ART: -47
11/20 Texas State 3-5 (202-301)
11/26 South Alabama 5-4 (257-199)
Comment: Remember these guys? They were 11-0 before Liberty beat them by a field goal in the bowl game. This year they feasted on those unranked teams – and that’s all they’ve played. App State beat them by another field goal but the Chanticleers seem to be a lock for 11-1.
HOUSTON 8-1 (3520-200) ART: +14
11/13 at Temple 3-6 (164-331) ART: -28
11/19 Memphis 5-4 (286-262)
11/27 at CONNECTICUT 1-8 (146-324)
Comment: The Cougars should dance to 11-1, creating a big confrontation with the Cincinnati Bearcats.
LOUISIANA 8-1 (277-171) ART -15
11/13 at Troy 5-4 (236-196) ART -5
11/20 at Liberty 7-3 (351-187) ART -3
11/27 Louisiana-Monroe 4-5 (197-327) ART -43
Comment: Troy could be a problem and the trip to Liberty will be very difficult. Then comes Coastal Carolina or App State.
SAN DIEGO STATE 8-1 (254-150) RVU: +19
11/13 Nevada-Reno 7-2 (328-219)
11/19 at NEVADA-LAS VEGAS 1-8 (188-305) ART: -61
11/26 Boise State 5-4 (274-188) ART: +54
Comment: Reno will be a big hurdle and so will Boise. UNLV will not.
The Ty-D Bowl
ARKANSAS STATE 1-8 (234-387) ART -21
11/13 at Louisiana-Monroe 4-5 (197-327) ART -43
11/20 at Georgia State 4-5 (208-262) ART -47
11/27 Texas State 3-6 (202-301)
Comment: Maybe they can beat Texas State.
ARIZONA 1-8 (144-257) ART: +1
11/13 Utah 6-3 (319-209) ART: +22 RVU: +7
11/19 at Washington State 5-4 (233-222)
11/27 at Arizona State 6-3 (273-182) ART: +18 RVU: +17
Comments: The finally found a team they could beat, (Cal), but that should be it for them.
CONNECTICUT 1-8 (146-324)
11/13 at Clemson 6-3 (200-146) ART +7 RVU -6
11/20 at Central Florida 6-3 (292-217) ART -11
11/27 HOUSTON 8-1 (352-200) ART +14
Comments: The Huskies seem headed toward oblivion. They even lost to UMASS in what ESPN called “The Pillow Fight of the Century”.
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 1-8 (210-340)
11/13 at Middle Tennessee State 4-5 (263-259) ART -14
11/20 North Texas State 3-6 (229-283)
11/27 at SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 1-8 (123-272) ART -24
Comments: The Panther’s schedule holds some real possibilities for getting off of this list.
KANSAS 1-8 (136-385) ART -38
11/13 at Texas 4-5 (322-268) ART +45
11/20 at Texas Christian 4-5 (282-280) ART +178
11/27 West Virginia 4-5 (240-207) ART +41
Comments: Can a 1-8 team beat a 4-5 team if they get three chances to do it?
MASSACHUSETTS 1-8 (142-405) ART -41
11/13 Maine (FCS) 4-5 (207-267)
11/20 at Army 5-3 (263-208) ART -4
11/27 at NEW MEXICO STATE 1-8 (208-343)
The Minutemen must envy their old pals in Maine, getting to play FCS schedules. Bring back the Yankee Conference!
NEVADA-LAS VEGAS 1-8 (188-305) ART: -61
11/13 Hawaii 4-6 (273-322) ART: +6
11/19 at SAN DIEGO STATE 8-1 (254-150) ranked #22 RVU: +19
11/26 Air Force 6-3 (248-155) ART -2
Comments: The Vegas odds don’t look good in any of these games.
NEW MEXICO STATE 1-8 (208-343)
11/13 at ALABAMA 8-1 (387-179) ranked #2 ART +95 RVU: +17
11/20 at Kentucky 6-3 (265-222) ART +31 RVU: -28
11/27 MASSACHUSETTS 1-8 (142-405) ART -41
Comments: Alabama? Alabama??? The UMASS game may be an elimination game for the Ty-D-Bol.
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 1-8 (123-272) ART -24
11/13 at TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO 9-0 (359-173) ranked #23 RVU: +27
11/19 at Louisiana Tech 2-7 (244-306) ART -31
11/27 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 1-8 (210-340)
Comments: Those last two games will look good after the next one.
TULANE 1-8 (245-341) ART -36
11/13 Tulsa 3-6 (215-275) ART +8
11/20 South Florida 2-7 (223-309) ART -6
11/27 at Memphis 5-4 (286-262)
Comments: Remember when the Green Wave opened against Oklahoma and gave them a 35-40 tussle? Tulane seemed to have their best team in years. Not so fast, my friends, although they have competed better than the other 1-8 teams. Their -96 differential is the best of them and they also played well against Cincinnati: two top 5 teams. But they haven’t learned how to win.