The Undefeated - after Week 10

[SWC75]

This is the point of the season when I look at the future schedules of undefeated teams to see who has the best chance to run the table and make the playoff. When the number of such teams falls below four, I chart the one-loss teams. I limit this to ‘power’ conference teams unless a ‘Group of 5’ team is in the Top ten of either the writer, coach’s or committee’s polls. I also have two fictional bowls for the two top mid-majors, (the ‘Pesci’ Bowl, named after vertically challenged but ever-feisty character actor Joe Pesci), and the two worst teams in the country, (the Ty-D Bowl, named after the Ty-D Bol toilet bowl cleaner). For the Pesci Bowl, I’ll keep track of the undefeated Group of 5 teams until there are less than two of them. Then I look at the one-loss G5 teams. For the Ty-D Bowl, I keep track of the winless teams until there are less than two of them. Then I’ll look at the 1-win teams. Rankings are by the writers/coaches/committee- when it comes out. I’ve decided to include each team’s points “Against Ranked Teams” (ART). See that post for details on how that is computed.

After Week 9


Playoff Contenders

FLORIDA STATE 9-0 (356-153) ranked: 4/4/4 ART: +70
Sat 11/11 U of Miami 6-3 (289-180) ART: +22
Sat 11/18 North Alabama 3-7 (239-308) FCS
Sat 11/25 at Florida 5-4 (260-222) ART: +29
Rivalry games vs. Miami and at Florida could prove interesting. Then comes probably North Carolina in the conference title game.

GEORGIA 9-0 (354-139) ranked: 1/1/2 ART +67
Sat 11/11 Mississippi 8-1 (349-206) ranked 10/10/9 ART: +37
Sat 11/18 at Tennessee 7-2 (313-166) ranked 14/12/13 ART: +1
Sat 11/25 at Georgia Tech 5-4 (299-271) ART: +9
Can they win three in a row? First they have to get there. Mississippi and Tennessee are strong oppoenents and then have an interesting rivalry game with Georgia Tech. Then comes the SEC title game – probably against Alabama. But this is a school that could get in with one loss, like the Tide used to.

MICHIGAN 9-0 (366-60) ranked: 2/2/3
Sat 11/11 at Penn State 8-1 (362-107) ranked 9/9/10 ART: +48
Sat 11/18 at Maryland 5-4 (276-214) unranked ART: -19
Sat 11/25 OHIO STATE 9-0 (295-96) ranked 3/3/1 ART: +47
The Wolverines are #2 but haven’t played a ranked team. They will now and Happy Valley can be an unhappy place to play. Then there’s that massive confrontation with the Buckeyes. If they get by those challenges, the Big ten title game will seem like small potatoes.

OHIO STATE 9-0 (295-96) ranked: 3/3/1 ART: +47
Sat 11/11 Michigan State 3-6 (164-239) ART: -41
Sat 11/18 Minnesota 5-4 (195-209) ART: -30
Sat 11/25 at MICHIGAN 9-0 (366-60) ranked: 2/2/3
The Michigan game will tell the tale, as it usually does. This just doesn’t seem like a vintage Ohio State team. Their defense is excellent but their offense is less than that, despite the incomparable Marvin Jr. They seem vulnerable. I wonder why the committee ranked them #1?

WASHINGTON 9-0 (375-207) ranked: 5/5/5 ART: +37
Sat 11/11 Utah 7-2 (225-143) ranked 13/14/18 ART: +3
Sat 11/18 at Oregon State 7-2 (317-188) ranked 12/13/12 ART: +52
Sat 11/25 Washington State 4-5 (264-257) ART: +25
The challenges keep coming but the Huskies remain undefeated. Now comes 7-2 Utah, then a trip to 7-2 Oregon State, then the last Apple Cup as conference colleagues. Washington State won their first four games and have now lost their last five. That must be terrible.


We’ve still got 5 undefeated power five teams. Can they all stay that way? Not only are there three games left but then comes the conference championship games. We know that one of Michigan and Ohio State have to lose as they play each other in the regular season finale. If anyone else slips up, there are five power conference teams with one loss waiting for a chance to play for all the marbles: Alabama, Louisville, Mississippi, Oregon and Penn State, all 8-1. This might have been a good time to go to 12 teams.


Pesci Bowl

JAMES MADISON 9-0 (299-176) ranked 21/21
Sat 11/11 CONNECTICUT 1-8 (161-293) ART: -73
Sat 11/18 Appalachian State 5-4 (308-256) ART: +3
Sat 11/25 at Coastal Carolina 6-3 (270-189)
Still another former FCS champ who jumped to FBS for the money but will never win another national title because of it. UCONN will be roadkill. If they can get by App State and Coastal Carolina, they will be in the Pesci Bowl.

LIBERTY 9-0 (352-197) ranked 25
Sat 11/11 Old Dominion 4-5 (220-238) ART -2
Sat 11/18 Massachusetts 3-7 (235-374) ART: -43
Sat 11/25 Texas-El Paso 3-7 (181-266)
Our old pals from Liberty should make it 12-0 and face the Dukes in the Pesci Bowl, setting up and interesting coaching duel: Curt Cignetti and Jamey Chadwell.


Ty-D Bowl

CONNECTICUT 1-8 (161-293) ART -73
Sat 11/11 at JAMES MADISON 9-0 (299-176) ranked 21/21
Sat 11/18 Sacred Heart 2-8 (144-241) FCS
Sat 11/25 at Massachusetts 3-7 (235-374) ART -43
Shouldn’t FCS games be considered exhibitions games, like they are in basketball? Sacred Heart is the Huskies’ “get out of the Ty-D-Bowl free” card.

EAST CAROLINA 1-8 (159-223) ART -4
Sat 11/11 at Florida Atlantic 4-5 (249-236)
Sat 11/18 at Navy 3-5 (146-187) ART -33
Sat 11/25 Tulsa 3-6 (202-320) ART -57
The Pirate’s boat is leaking. They look good for 1-11.

KENT STATE 1-8 (127-295)
Wed 11/8 Bowling Green 4-4 (178-200) ART -1
Sat 11/18 at Ball State 2-7 (150-256) ART -17
Sat 11/25 Northern Illinois 4-5 (225-207)
They got zapped by the Zips. Maybe they can get something done at Ball State.

SAM HOUSTON 1-8 (152-239)
Sat 11/11 at Louisiana Tech 3-7 (267-303)
Sat 11/18 at Western Kentucky 5-4 (260-249) ART: -33
Sat 11/25 Middle Tennessee State 2-7 (197-278) ART: -27
Another FCS power who sold out. The got their win against Kennesaw State. Should that count? Maybe they can knock off somebody else, too.


We now have no Power Five teams with no or only one win. Maybe I’ll skip the Powerless-Five Ty-D-Bowl this year.

 

[Moontan]

We now have no Power Five teams with no or only one win. Maybe I’ll skip the Powerless-Five Ty-D-Bowl this year.

I know of at least one P5 team with only 1 P5 win.