SWC75
Bored Historian
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Every October I start charting the future games and possible fates of three groups of teams:
- The undefeated power conference teams, (and when that gets to be less than 4 teams, the one-loss teams), to anticipate who might be in the playoff.
- The top FBS non-power conference teams, the best two of which will play in the fictional “Pesci Bowl” to determine the best of such teams. I named it after the actor Joe Pesci, who plays vertically challenged but feisty characters. These teams never get selected for the playoff but still think they’re pretty good. (I’ll stick with the undefeated teams until there are less than 2 of them.)
- The worst FBS teams in the country, the two worst of which will play in the mythical “Ty-D-Bowl Bowl”, named after a toilet cleaning product, to determine who the worst major college team in the country is. (I’ll stick with winless teams until there are less than two of them.)
Each entry is the team name, with won lost record, their points for and against, their highest ranking among the writers, coaches until the playoff committee takes over, (which means more than one team could have the same ranking – from different sources), then their ‘ART’, the points they got playing ranked teams and then their ‘RVU’, as a ranked team against an unranked team from my weekly “Against Ranked Teams” post. Games against teams on any of these three lists are in capitals. If a team is unranked or has not played a ranked team or played as one against an unranked team, those fields are not shown.
Here are the current lists:
(For this week, I needed to add the 1 loss teams into the playoff mix and the 1 win teams in the Ty-D-Bol group. I didn’t yet need 1 loss teams for the Pesci Bowl but I decided to list them anyway as they may be needed there.)
The Playoff
GEORGIA 10-0 (387-76) ranked #1 ART: +149 RVU: +81
11/20 Charleston Southern (FCS) 4-5 (238-233)
11/27 at Georgia Tech 3-7 (288-302) ART: +42
Comments: It’s hard to see how the Bulldogs will lose until the SEC title game, where Alabama looms. But this could be Georgia’s year. Their only title was in 1980, 41 years ago.
ALABAMA 9-1 (446-182) ranked #2 ART: +95 RVU: +44
11/20 Arkansas 7-3 (309-229) ranked #21 ART: +66 RVU: +7
11/27 at Auburn 6-4 (316-221) ART: +51 RVU: +51
Comments: These last two teams could be feisty but The Tide will be favored to be taking on Georgia in the SEC title game.
MICHIGAN 9-1 (347-161) ranked #6 ART: +14 RVU: +39
11/20 at Maryland 5-5 (269-314) ART: -46
11/27 OHIO STATE 9-1 (463-202) ranked #4 ART: +57 RVU: +96
Comments: If the Buckeye get past the Spartans, the Bog Game will decide the East m- will Jim Harbaugh finally win one? (But look out for Wisconsin in the west- they have gotten better and better.)
MICHIGAN STATE 9-1 (346-225) ranked #7 ART: +48 RVU: -49
11/20 at OHIO STATE 9-1 (463-202) ranked #4 ART: +57 RVU: +96
11/27 Penn State 6-4 (260-171) 4 ART: +83 RVU: -2
Comments: If they can beat the Buckeyes, they should be in the Big Ten title game. But don’t overlook Penn State and watch out for Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game.
NOTRE DAME 9-1 (323-205) ranked #8 ART: +44 RVU: -21
11/20 Georgia Tech 3-7 (288-302) ART: +42
11/27 at Stanford 3-7 (220-303) ART: +51
Comment: This is a tiptoe through the tulips. But can they rise from 8th to the top 4 against this schedule?
OKLAHOMA 9-1 (400-245) ranked #13 ART: +12 RVU: -17
11/20 Iowa State 6-4 (325-205) ART: +27 RVU: +27 RVU: -16
11/27 OKLAHOMA STATE 9-1 (322-164) ranked #9 ART: +36 RVU: +56
Comments: The Sooners had been in low gear but finding ways to win, (their record includes a 76-0 win over Western Carolina). They ran out of rope against Baylor. The top two teams in the conference meet for the championship. Baylor is 5-2 in the conference so ‘bedlam’ may not be a double-header this year.
OKLAHOMA STATE 9-1 (322-164) ranked #9 ART: +36 RVU: +56
11/20 at Texas Tech 6-4 (336-335) ART: -9
11/27 at OKLAHOMA 9-1 (400-245) ranked #13 ART: +12 RVU: -17
Comments: Texas Tech could spoil the party but it will be hard to keep the Bedlam winner out of the playoff. The Big 12 does have a championship game between the two best teams, so it could be a double-header.
OREGON 9-1 (353-226) ranked #3 ART: +30 RVU: -60
11/20 at Utah 7-3 (357-238) ranked #23 ART: +22 RVU: +14
11/27 Oregon State 6-4 (340-263)
Comment: The Ducks are quacking up on people and they are already #3 with no one comparable on their schedules. They could be in the cat-ducks’ seat, watching the other teams knock each other off. But are they really better than those other 9-1 teams?
WAKE FOREST 9-1 (447-291) ranked #10 AER: +13 RVU: +6
11/20 at Clemson 7-3 (244-153) ART: +7 RVU: -6
11/27 at Boston College 6-4 (263-199) ART: -27
Comments: Wake is a fun team but they’ll likely be watching the playoff on TV.
The Pesci Bowl
CINCINNATI 10-0 (392-162) ranked #5 ART: +28 RVU: +30
11/20 Southern Methodist 8-2 (392-162) RVU: +15
11/26 East Carolina 6-4 (305-245)
Comments: The Bearcats are ranked #3 by the writers and coaches and have bene as high as #2. They have yet to lose and could go 13-0 and yet still might get left out of the playoff. There are so many 9-1 power conference teams – 8 of them – and Cincy needs 6 of them to lose. They are probably not going to be chosen over an 11 or 12-1 power conference team. Of course, they’ve already beaten one of them.
TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO 10-0 (386-190) ranked #23 RVU: +34
11/20 Alabama-Birmingham 7-3 (280-215) ART: -25
11/27 at North Texas State 4-6 (249-300)
Comments: Nobody knows about this team and that’s not likely to change. But if UAB is the biggest threat to their going undefeated, they’re in pretty good shape. The top teams in the other division have 4 losses.
HOUSTON 9-1 (389-208) ranked #24 ART: +14
11/19 Memphis 5-5 (315-292)
11/27 at CONNECTICUT 1-9 (153-368)
Comment: The Cougars should dance to 11-1, creating a big confrontation with the Cincinnati Bearcats. They won’t get to the playoff but they could get to the Pesci Bowl!
LOUISIANA 9-1 (312-192) ART -15
11/20 at Liberty 7-3 (351-187) ART -3
11/27 Louisiana-Monroe 4-6 (221-154) ART -43
Comment: Troy could be a problem and the trip to Liberty will be very difficult. Then comes probably App State in the conference title game. .
SAN DIEGO STATE 9-1 (277-171) ranked #19 RVU: +15
11/19 at Nevada-Las Vegas 2-8 (215-318) ART: -61
11/26 Boise State 6-4 (297-201) ART: +54
Comment: Boise could still be will be a big hurdle. UNLV will not.
The Ty-D Bowl
ARIZONA 1-9 (173-295) ART: -6
11/19 at Washington State 5-5 (257-260) ART: +9
11/27 at Arizona State 7-3 (308-212) ART: +18 RVU: +16
Comments: The finally found a team they could beat, (Cal), but that should be it for them.
CONNECTICUT 1-9 (153-368)
11/20 at Central Florida 6-4 (320-272) ART -11
11/27 HOUSTON 9-1 (389-208) Ranked #24 ART +14
Comments: The Huskies seem headed toward oblivion. They even lost to UMASS in what ESPN called “The Pillow Fight of the Century”. They returned the opening Kickoff against Clemson to take a 7-0 lead. I hope they got pictures of the scoreboard. (The final was 7-44.)
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 1-9 (220-390)
11/20 North Texas State 4-6 (249-300)
11/27 at SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 1-9 (140-299) ART -31
Comments: The Panther’s schedule holds some real possibilities for getting off of this list.
MASSACHUSETTS 1-9 (152-440) ART -41
11/20 at Army 6-3 (326-218) ART -4
11/27 at NEW MEXICO STATE 1-9 (211-402) ART -32
Comments: Amid all the big confrontations on that final weekend, don’t forget Florida International vs. Southern Mississippi and Massachusetts vs. New Mexico State!
NEW MEXICO STATE 1-9 (211-402) ART -32
11/20 at Kentucky 7-3 (292-228) ART +31 RVU: -28
11/27 MASSACHUSETTS 1-9 (152-440) ART -41
Comments: The were up 3-0 on Bama. Again, I hope they took a picture of the scoreboard. (The final was 3-59).
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 1-9 (140-299) ART -31
11/19 at Louisiana Tech 3-7 (286-338) ART -31
11/27 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 1-9 (220-390)
Comments: This once-proud program could get off the snide.
TULANE 1-9 (258-361) ART -36
11/20 South Florida 2-8 (251-354) ART -2
11/27 at Memphis 5-5 (315-292)
Comments: Remember when the Green Wave opened against Oklahoma and gave them a 35-40 tussle? Tulane seemed to have their best team in years. Not so fast, my friends, although they have competed better than the other 1-9 teams. Their -103 differential is the best of them and they also played well against Cincinnati: two top 5 teams. But they haven’t learned how to win.
- The undefeated power conference teams, (and when that gets to be less than 4 teams, the one-loss teams), to anticipate who might be in the playoff.
- The top FBS non-power conference teams, the best two of which will play in the fictional “Pesci Bowl” to determine the best of such teams. I named it after the actor Joe Pesci, who plays vertically challenged but feisty characters. These teams never get selected for the playoff but still think they’re pretty good. (I’ll stick with the undefeated teams until there are less than 2 of them.)
- The worst FBS teams in the country, the two worst of which will play in the mythical “Ty-D-Bowl Bowl”, named after a toilet cleaning product, to determine who the worst major college team in the country is. (I’ll stick with winless teams until there are less than two of them.)
Each entry is the team name, with won lost record, their points for and against, their highest ranking among the writers, coaches until the playoff committee takes over, (which means more than one team could have the same ranking – from different sources), then their ‘ART’, the points they got playing ranked teams and then their ‘RVU’, as a ranked team against an unranked team from my weekly “Against Ranked Teams” post. Games against teams on any of these three lists are in capitals. If a team is unranked or has not played a ranked team or played as one against an unranked team, those fields are not shown.
Here are the current lists:
(For this week, I needed to add the 1 loss teams into the playoff mix and the 1 win teams in the Ty-D-Bol group. I didn’t yet need 1 loss teams for the Pesci Bowl but I decided to list them anyway as they may be needed there.)
The Playoff
GEORGIA 10-0 (387-76) ranked #1 ART: +149 RVU: +81
11/20 Charleston Southern (FCS) 4-5 (238-233)
11/27 at Georgia Tech 3-7 (288-302) ART: +42
Comments: It’s hard to see how the Bulldogs will lose until the SEC title game, where Alabama looms. But this could be Georgia’s year. Their only title was in 1980, 41 years ago.
ALABAMA 9-1 (446-182) ranked #2 ART: +95 RVU: +44
11/20 Arkansas 7-3 (309-229) ranked #21 ART: +66 RVU: +7
11/27 at Auburn 6-4 (316-221) ART: +51 RVU: +51
Comments: These last two teams could be feisty but The Tide will be favored to be taking on Georgia in the SEC title game.
MICHIGAN 9-1 (347-161) ranked #6 ART: +14 RVU: +39
11/20 at Maryland 5-5 (269-314) ART: -46
11/27 OHIO STATE 9-1 (463-202) ranked #4 ART: +57 RVU: +96
Comments: If the Buckeye get past the Spartans, the Bog Game will decide the East m- will Jim Harbaugh finally win one? (But look out for Wisconsin in the west- they have gotten better and better.)
MICHIGAN STATE 9-1 (346-225) ranked #7 ART: +48 RVU: -49
11/20 at OHIO STATE 9-1 (463-202) ranked #4 ART: +57 RVU: +96
11/27 Penn State 6-4 (260-171) 4 ART: +83 RVU: -2
Comments: If they can beat the Buckeyes, they should be in the Big Ten title game. But don’t overlook Penn State and watch out for Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game.
NOTRE DAME 9-1 (323-205) ranked #8 ART: +44 RVU: -21
11/20 Georgia Tech 3-7 (288-302) ART: +42
11/27 at Stanford 3-7 (220-303) ART: +51
Comment: This is a tiptoe through the tulips. But can they rise from 8th to the top 4 against this schedule?
OKLAHOMA 9-1 (400-245) ranked #13 ART: +12 RVU: -17
11/20 Iowa State 6-4 (325-205) ART: +27 RVU: +27 RVU: -16
11/27 OKLAHOMA STATE 9-1 (322-164) ranked #9 ART: +36 RVU: +56
Comments: The Sooners had been in low gear but finding ways to win, (their record includes a 76-0 win over Western Carolina). They ran out of rope against Baylor. The top two teams in the conference meet for the championship. Baylor is 5-2 in the conference so ‘bedlam’ may not be a double-header this year.
OKLAHOMA STATE 9-1 (322-164) ranked #9 ART: +36 RVU: +56
11/20 at Texas Tech 6-4 (336-335) ART: -9
11/27 at OKLAHOMA 9-1 (400-245) ranked #13 ART: +12 RVU: -17
Comments: Texas Tech could spoil the party but it will be hard to keep the Bedlam winner out of the playoff. The Big 12 does have a championship game between the two best teams, so it could be a double-header.
OREGON 9-1 (353-226) ranked #3 ART: +30 RVU: -60
11/20 at Utah 7-3 (357-238) ranked #23 ART: +22 RVU: +14
11/27 Oregon State 6-4 (340-263)
Comment: The Ducks are quacking up on people and they are already #3 with no one comparable on their schedules. They could be in the cat-ducks’ seat, watching the other teams knock each other off. But are they really better than those other 9-1 teams?
WAKE FOREST 9-1 (447-291) ranked #10 AER: +13 RVU: +6
11/20 at Clemson 7-3 (244-153) ART: +7 RVU: -6
11/27 at Boston College 6-4 (263-199) ART: -27
Comments: Wake is a fun team but they’ll likely be watching the playoff on TV.
The Pesci Bowl
CINCINNATI 10-0 (392-162) ranked #5 ART: +28 RVU: +30
11/20 Southern Methodist 8-2 (392-162) RVU: +15
11/26 East Carolina 6-4 (305-245)
Comments: The Bearcats are ranked #3 by the writers and coaches and have bene as high as #2. They have yet to lose and could go 13-0 and yet still might get left out of the playoff. There are so many 9-1 power conference teams – 8 of them – and Cincy needs 6 of them to lose. They are probably not going to be chosen over an 11 or 12-1 power conference team. Of course, they’ve already beaten one of them.
TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO 10-0 (386-190) ranked #23 RVU: +34
11/20 Alabama-Birmingham 7-3 (280-215) ART: -25
11/27 at North Texas State 4-6 (249-300)
Comments: Nobody knows about this team and that’s not likely to change. But if UAB is the biggest threat to their going undefeated, they’re in pretty good shape. The top teams in the other division have 4 losses.
HOUSTON 9-1 (389-208) ranked #24 ART: +14
11/19 Memphis 5-5 (315-292)
11/27 at CONNECTICUT 1-9 (153-368)
Comment: The Cougars should dance to 11-1, creating a big confrontation with the Cincinnati Bearcats. They won’t get to the playoff but they could get to the Pesci Bowl!
LOUISIANA 9-1 (312-192) ART -15
11/20 at Liberty 7-3 (351-187) ART -3
11/27 Louisiana-Monroe 4-6 (221-154) ART -43
Comment: Troy could be a problem and the trip to Liberty will be very difficult. Then comes probably App State in the conference title game. .
SAN DIEGO STATE 9-1 (277-171) ranked #19 RVU: +15
11/19 at Nevada-Las Vegas 2-8 (215-318) ART: -61
11/26 Boise State 6-4 (297-201) ART: +54
Comment: Boise could still be will be a big hurdle. UNLV will not.
The Ty-D Bowl
ARIZONA 1-9 (173-295) ART: -6
11/19 at Washington State 5-5 (257-260) ART: +9
11/27 at Arizona State 7-3 (308-212) ART: +18 RVU: +16
Comments: The finally found a team they could beat, (Cal), but that should be it for them.
CONNECTICUT 1-9 (153-368)
11/20 at Central Florida 6-4 (320-272) ART -11
11/27 HOUSTON 9-1 (389-208) Ranked #24 ART +14
Comments: The Huskies seem headed toward oblivion. They even lost to UMASS in what ESPN called “The Pillow Fight of the Century”. They returned the opening Kickoff against Clemson to take a 7-0 lead. I hope they got pictures of the scoreboard. (The final was 7-44.)
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 1-9 (220-390)
11/20 North Texas State 4-6 (249-300)
11/27 at SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 1-9 (140-299) ART -31
Comments: The Panther’s schedule holds some real possibilities for getting off of this list.
MASSACHUSETTS 1-9 (152-440) ART -41
11/20 at Army 6-3 (326-218) ART -4
11/27 at NEW MEXICO STATE 1-9 (211-402) ART -32
Comments: Amid all the big confrontations on that final weekend, don’t forget Florida International vs. Southern Mississippi and Massachusetts vs. New Mexico State!
NEW MEXICO STATE 1-9 (211-402) ART -32
11/20 at Kentucky 7-3 (292-228) ART +31 RVU: -28
11/27 MASSACHUSETTS 1-9 (152-440) ART -41
Comments: The were up 3-0 on Bama. Again, I hope they took a picture of the scoreboard. (The final was 3-59).
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 1-9 (140-299) ART -31
11/19 at Louisiana Tech 3-7 (286-338) ART -31
11/27 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 1-9 (220-390)
Comments: This once-proud program could get off the snide.
TULANE 1-9 (258-361) ART -36
11/20 South Florida 2-8 (251-354) ART -2
11/27 at Memphis 5-5 (315-292)
Comments: Remember when the Green Wave opened against Oklahoma and gave them a 35-40 tussle? Tulane seemed to have their best team in years. Not so fast, my friends, although they have competed better than the other 1-9 teams. Their -103 differential is the best of them and they also played well against Cincinnati: two top 5 teams. But they haven’t learned how to win.