SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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This is the point of the season when I look at the future schedules of undefeated teams to see who has the best chance to run the table and make the playoff. When the number of such teams falls below four, I chart the one-loss teams. I limit this to ‘power’ conference teams unless a ‘Group of 5’ team is in the Top ten of either the writer, coach’s or committee’s polls. I also have two fictional bowls for the two top mid-majors, (the ‘Pesci’ Bowl, named after vertically challenged but ever-feisty character actor Joe Pesci), and the two worst teams in the country, (the Ty-D Bowl, named after the Ty-D Bol toilet bowl cleaner). For the Pesci Bowl, I’ll keep track of the undefeated Group of 5 teams until there are less than two of them. Then I look at the one-loss G5 teams. For the Ty-D Bowl, I keep track of the winless teams until there are less than two of them. Then I’ll look at the 1-win teams. Rankings are by the writers/coaches/committee- when it comes out. I’ve decided to include each team’s points “Against Ranked Teams” (ART). See that post for details on how that is computed.
After Week 11
Playoff Contenders
FLORIDA STATE 10-0 (383-173) ranked: 4/4/4 ART: +70
Sat 11/18 North Alabama 3-7 (239-308) FCS
Sat 11/25 at Florida 5-5 (295-274) ART: +19
A rivalry game at Florida could prove interesting but the Noles should get to 12-0. Then comes Louisville or North Carolina in the conference title game.
GEORGIA 10-0 (406-156) ranked: 1/1/1 ART +119
Sat 11/18 at Tennessee 7-3 (320-202) ranked 21/19/18 ART: -16
Sat 11/25 at Georgia Tech 5-5 (320-313) ART: +9
Can they win three in a row? First they have to get there. Tennessee could be dangerous coming off a loss and then comes a rivalry game with Georgia Tech. Then comes the SEC title game – probably against Alabama. But this is a school that could get in with one loss, like the Tide used to.
MICHIGAN 10-0 (390-75) ranked: 2/2/3 ART: +25
Sat 11/18 at Maryland 6-4 (289-224) unranked ART: -19
Sat 11/25 OHIO STATE 10-0 (333-99) ranked 3/3/2 ART: +47
The Wolverines passed the test at Penn State. They will roll over Maryland and then there’s that massive confrontation with the Buckeyes. The Big Ten title game will likely be against Iowa, which should not be a problem.
OHIO STATE 10-0 (333-99) ranked: 3/3/2 ART: +47
Sat 11/18 Minnesota 5-5 (225-258) ART: -30
Sat 11/25 at MICHIGAN 10-0 (390-75) ranked: 2/2/3 ART: +25
The Michigan game will tell the tale, as it usually does. Will the loser have a chance to get into the playoff?
WASHINGTON 10-0 (410-235) ranked: 5/5/5 ART: +52
Sat 11/18 at Oregon State 8-2 (379-205) ranked 10/10/11 ART: +52
Sat 11/25 Washington State 4-6 (303-299) ART: +25
The challenges keep coming but the Huskies remain undefeated. Now comes a trip to 7-2 Oregon State, then the last Apple Cup as conference colleagues. Washington State won their first four games and have now lost their last six, a fate we just avoided.
We’ve still got 5 undefeated power five teams. Can they all stay that way? Not only are there three games left but then comes the conference championship games. We know that one of Michigan and Ohio State have to lose as they play each other in the regular season finale. If anyone else slips up, there are three more power conference teams with one loss waiting for a chance to play for all the marbles: Alabama, Louisville and Oregon all 9-1. This might have been a good time to go to 12 teams.
Pesci Bowl
JAMES MADISON 10-0 (343-162) ranked 21/21
Sat 11/18 Appalachian State 6-4 (348-270) ART: +3
Sat 11/25 at Coastal Carolina 7-3 (301-212)
Still another former FCS champ who jumped to FBS for the money but will never win another national title because of it. If they can get by App State and Coastal Carolina, they will be in the Pesci Bowl.
LIBERTY 10-0 (390-207) ranked 25
Sat 11/18 Massachusetts 3-7 (235-374) ART: -43
Sat 11/25 Texas-El Paso 3-7 (181-266)
Our old pals from Liberty should make it 12-0 and face the Dukes in the Pesci Bowl, setting up an interesting coaching duel: Curt Cignetti and Jamey Chadwell.
Ty-D Bowl
CONNECTICUT 1-9 (167-337) ART -73
Sat 11/18 Sacred Heart 2-8 (144-241) FCS
Sat 11/25 at Massachusetts 3-7 (235-374) ART -43
Shouldn’t FCS games be considered exhibitions games, like they are in basketball? Sacred Heart is the Huskies’ “get out of the Ty-D-Bowl free” card.
KENT STATE 1-9 (146-344)
Sat 11/18 at Ball State 3-7 (170-273) ART -17
Sat 11/25 Northern Illinois 4-6 (242-227)
They got zapped by the Zips. Maybe they can get something done at Ball State.
We’re down to two 1 win teams for the Ty-D-Bowl. All their remaining games are against teams with losing records. If either wins one of those games, I’ll have to unearth the 2 win teams to complete this and I’m not looking forward to that.
After Week 11
Playoff Contenders
FLORIDA STATE 10-0 (383-173) ranked: 4/4/4 ART: +70
Sat 11/18 North Alabama 3-7 (239-308) FCS
Sat 11/25 at Florida 5-5 (295-274) ART: +19
A rivalry game at Florida could prove interesting but the Noles should get to 12-0. Then comes Louisville or North Carolina in the conference title game.
GEORGIA 10-0 (406-156) ranked: 1/1/1 ART +119
Sat 11/18 at Tennessee 7-3 (320-202) ranked 21/19/18 ART: -16
Sat 11/25 at Georgia Tech 5-5 (320-313) ART: +9
Can they win three in a row? First they have to get there. Tennessee could be dangerous coming off a loss and then comes a rivalry game with Georgia Tech. Then comes the SEC title game – probably against Alabama. But this is a school that could get in with one loss, like the Tide used to.
MICHIGAN 10-0 (390-75) ranked: 2/2/3 ART: +25
Sat 11/18 at Maryland 6-4 (289-224) unranked ART: -19
Sat 11/25 OHIO STATE 10-0 (333-99) ranked 3/3/2 ART: +47
The Wolverines passed the test at Penn State. They will roll over Maryland and then there’s that massive confrontation with the Buckeyes. The Big Ten title game will likely be against Iowa, which should not be a problem.
OHIO STATE 10-0 (333-99) ranked: 3/3/2 ART: +47
Sat 11/18 Minnesota 5-5 (225-258) ART: -30
Sat 11/25 at MICHIGAN 10-0 (390-75) ranked: 2/2/3 ART: +25
The Michigan game will tell the tale, as it usually does. Will the loser have a chance to get into the playoff?
WASHINGTON 10-0 (410-235) ranked: 5/5/5 ART: +52
Sat 11/18 at Oregon State 8-2 (379-205) ranked 10/10/11 ART: +52
Sat 11/25 Washington State 4-6 (303-299) ART: +25
The challenges keep coming but the Huskies remain undefeated. Now comes a trip to 7-2 Oregon State, then the last Apple Cup as conference colleagues. Washington State won their first four games and have now lost their last six, a fate we just avoided.
We’ve still got 5 undefeated power five teams. Can they all stay that way? Not only are there three games left but then comes the conference championship games. We know that one of Michigan and Ohio State have to lose as they play each other in the regular season finale. If anyone else slips up, there are three more power conference teams with one loss waiting for a chance to play for all the marbles: Alabama, Louisville and Oregon all 9-1. This might have been a good time to go to 12 teams.
Pesci Bowl
JAMES MADISON 10-0 (343-162) ranked 21/21
Sat 11/18 Appalachian State 6-4 (348-270) ART: +3
Sat 11/25 at Coastal Carolina 7-3 (301-212)
Still another former FCS champ who jumped to FBS for the money but will never win another national title because of it. If they can get by App State and Coastal Carolina, they will be in the Pesci Bowl.
LIBERTY 10-0 (390-207) ranked 25
Sat 11/18 Massachusetts 3-7 (235-374) ART: -43
Sat 11/25 Texas-El Paso 3-7 (181-266)
Our old pals from Liberty should make it 12-0 and face the Dukes in the Pesci Bowl, setting up an interesting coaching duel: Curt Cignetti and Jamey Chadwell.
Ty-D Bowl
CONNECTICUT 1-9 (167-337) ART -73
Sat 11/18 Sacred Heart 2-8 (144-241) FCS
Sat 11/25 at Massachusetts 3-7 (235-374) ART -43
Shouldn’t FCS games be considered exhibitions games, like they are in basketball? Sacred Heart is the Huskies’ “get out of the Ty-D-Bowl free” card.
KENT STATE 1-9 (146-344)
Sat 11/18 at Ball State 3-7 (170-273) ART -17
Sat 11/25 Northern Illinois 4-6 (242-227)
They got zapped by the Zips. Maybe they can get something done at Ball State.
We’re down to two 1 win teams for the Ty-D-Bowl. All their remaining games are against teams with losing records. If either wins one of those games, I’ll have to unearth the 2 win teams to complete this and I’m not looking forward to that.
